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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » My View-----

My View-----

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1My View----- Empty My View----- Tue Jul 12, 2011 7:09 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Dear Friends,

We were really enjoying the trading at CSE last two year these period(June ,July) after the end of war.
I believe this Credit Clarence the main issue to collapse the market.
We are small or medium investors comparing with the big fish in the CSE.Also more powerful people have entered to the market.

I believe Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) will enter to the market during coming two weeks.(Probably they will give more time to settle the Credits or any other investor friendly process.Because Big Fish,and other powerful people will force the SEC to do so.

After the Vallible One and Soft-logic IPO's , now people are getting lessons from the "IPO Una"(Fever) .This could be a good move to enhance the market trading(Secondary Market) instead of Primary Issue(IPO).Then we can see reduction on investment for IPO.(I like to invite you to watch carefully for the IPO-CIFL) and it wold be the most unsuccessful IPO.

So we have only one option now.Keep the portfolios in your accounts.Ty average the prices buying at low levels until the SEC give an investor friendly solution.

Most of our expert members always admired the (10% Price bands/Credit Clearance) at that time and now all we have to face for the troubles made from those decisions.

Happy Trading.






2My View----- Empty Re: My View----- Tue Jul 12, 2011 7:23 pm

aladdin

aladdin
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I do not agree of another chance to settle the credit and i do not believe they will give another chance this time. Personally i believe credit facility should be given up to a some extent. But if the law says they are not gona give credit, it should be crystal clear deadline and finish it. Extending the date further means the same market condition is to be expected again when that date comes near by. This is indirect manipulation by the controlling body. Therefore enough is enough now. And should not extend any more.

3My View----- Empty Re: My View----- Tue Jul 12, 2011 7:35 pm

MarketBuwa


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Stable Political Environment
Investment Healthy Condition
No any minus factors

Why the market going down???

I do not why-mehema wenne ey? (Lankawe witharada mehema ewwa wenne?

4My View----- Empty Re: My View----- Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:03 pm

aladdin

aladdin
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@MarketBuwa wrote:Stable Political Environment
Investment Healthy Condition
No any minus factors

Why the market going down???

I do not why-mehema wenne ey? (Lankawe witharada mehema ewwa wenne?

brother hamadama Vesak na neee... Not only Sri Lanka, entire Asian Pacific region market is down. Check the below link for more details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/asia-pacific/

5My View----- Empty Re: My View----- Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:17 pm

sanjee

sanjee
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
surely ipo fever is over now. study

6My View----- Empty Re: My View----- Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:42 pm

lokuayya


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@marketresearch ,you have summarize the situation very nicely.

Market movement is a function of many many variable,.The credit issue is the main variable these days.every day some variables come in and go, Greek credit worry ,Euro worry ,channel 4, Arsenic, so many will come and go.

but this credit issue is the main and manageable one.Broker Credit system has been there since inception of cse.It is integrated part of the system that we work , its a structural item.If it is suddenly removed ,the structure or system collapes, just like banks fail if we all withdraw our savings.
What is the hurry to clear all the credit in such a hurry, It is reasonable if they impose limits .that is understandable.Why sudden hurry.

Before the war victory Gen.sarath fonseka said "i will not pass this war to next army commander" He did it. Gone to History.(and to prison)

Are these Cader and Ms sugathdasa also trying do a Sarath Fonseka to go to history books ..." I will not pass these credit to next SEC boss". .. is that the case?

Otherwise what is rush ,There is no need to rush and destabilize the system.Limit the credit, Give longer time settle credit,The credit will get absorbed by the growth of the market without destabilizing it.
Do they know the what is the percentage of credit from capitalization?

The collapse of the CSe can induce stability problems for Bank systems too.
Because they have opened large amounts of margin accounts.It could be deadlier .

7My View----- Empty Re: My View----- Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:47 pm

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@aladdin wrote:I do not agree of another chance to settle the credit and i do not believe they will give another chance this time. Personally i believe credit facility should be given up to a some extent. But if the law says they are not gona give credit, it should be crystal clear deadline and finish it. Extending the date further means the same market condition is to be expected again when that date comes near by. This is indirect manipulation by the controlling body. Therefore enough is enough now. And should not extend any more.


I am on the same page with you on this, last time credit clearance extension causes this hawk now. At every extension market bounced back and more and more investors trapped high.
Lets see how prudent our regulators are !.

8My View----- Empty Re: My View----- Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:56 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@lokuayya wrote:@marketresearch ,you have summarize the situation very nicely.

Market movement is a function of many many variable,.The credit issue is the main variable these days.every day some variables come in and go, Greek credit worry ,Euro worry ,channel 4, Arsenic, so many will come and go.

but this credit issue is the main and manageable one.Broker Credit system has been there since inception of cse.It is integrated part of the system that we work , its a structural item.If it is suddenly removed ,the structure or system collapes, just like banks fail if we all withdraw our savings.
What is the hurry to clear all the credit in such a hurry, It is reasonable if they impose limits .that is understandable.Why sudden hurry.

Before the war victory Gen.sarath fonseka said "i will not pass this war to next army commander" He did it. Gone to History.(and to prison)

Are these Cader and Ms sugathdasa also trying do a Sarath Fonseka to go to history books ..." I will not pass these credit to next SEC boss". .. is that the case?

Otherwise what is rush ,There is no need to rush and destabilize the system.Limit the credit, Give longer time settle credit,The credit will get absorbed by the growth of the market without destabilizing it.
Do they know the what is the percentage of credit from capitalization?

The collapse of the CSe can induce stability problems for Bank systems too.
Because they have opened large amounts of margin accounts.It could be deadlier .

Dear Lokuayya,

That's true.
I spoke to several leading stock brokers and they like this credit system.If anyone say that Credit is a bad thing I would like to ask from them followings?

Have NOT used any Housing Loan to build a House?
Have NOT used any Overdraft facility to carry out the business activities?
Have NOT used Credit Card facility (Credit Limit) to manage your bills?

THEN WHY CAN NOT USE A CREDIT FACILITY FOR INVESTMENTS? THIS IS NEW WORLD.THIS IS NOT "Gal Yugaya".

This is like that all the housing loans must be settled in full before 31/12/2011

WHAT A JOKE.

9My View----- Empty Re: My View----- Tue Jul 12, 2011 10:04 pm

MarketBuwa


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Sugathadasa GAL Yugaya

10My View----- Empty Re: My View----- Tue Jul 12, 2011 10:07 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
As lokuayya said credit system was there from the inception depend of the broker.But no any problem was reported. Recently many name board companies who do not have sufficient asset base also managed to get Broker license and started guving credit more than managable level in case of a heavy fall.(I do not know whether it is correct but ppl say some brokers wthout sufficient asset base have allowed around 50% credit.) SEC could have taken appropriate action to monitor all these things at the time they granted approvel and credit limits could have been decided base on the wealth of the broker companies. But that was not happened and all of a sudden T+3 was introduced. This was the starting point of this disaster.

11My View----- Empty Re: My View----- Tue Jul 12, 2011 10:33 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
CSE is on a bouncy, patchy & muddy track towards to world's end. Quick setup for repair & maintenance of messy track is required now rather pointing to the market declines in asia pacific region. Some analysts are in opinion of that the short of cash after several IPOs & private placement has declined the buying pressure. In worst case scenario I believe the government/Central bank interference by investing to overcome the lackluster market sentiments would initiate new buying pressure.

12My View----- Empty Re: My View----- Wed Jul 13, 2011 7:37 am

Light of Hope


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Tiger wrote:
@aladdin wrote:I do not agree of another chance to settle the credit and i do not believe they will give another chance this time. Personally i believe credit facility should be given up to a some extent. But if the law says they are not gona give credit, it should be crystal clear deadline and finish it. Extending the date further means the same market condition is to be expected again when that date comes near by. This is indirect manipulation by the controlling body. Therefore enough is enough now. And should not extend any more.


I am on the same page with you on this, last time credit clearance extension causes this hawk now. At every extension market bounced back and more and more investors trapped high.
Lets see how prudent our regulators are !.

I agree. this needs to be over very soon and SEC needs to honor their dead lines. Also SEC needs to confirm in writing once this is completed. We should have a mechanism to tell SEC our demands.

13My View----- Empty Re: My View----- Wed Jul 13, 2011 9:24 am

Hiru


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I too believe that credit clearance deadlines must be honoured at any cost.

"Have NOT used any Housing Loan to build a House?
Have NOT used any Overdraft facility to carry out the business activities?
Have NOT used Credit Card facility (Credit Limit) to manage your bills?

THEN WHY CAN NOT USE A CREDIT FACILITY FOR INVESTMENTS? THIS IS NEW WORLD.THIS IS NOT "Gal Yugaya"."

I have used broker credit as well as margin trading, but I still believe not like other markets, share markets should not depend on credit as its consequences are severe and economic wide. For example, if you stucked in a bear market and was on credit, say 500,000, you have to pay around 7000 as interest per month while your unrealized loss is mounting to a level which would never be a profit. This is the stage where broker comes and says please sell because your portfolio value is going down. What happen to your own capital?

I will point out one reason out of very large number of reasons as per my general understanding.

When the credit is available to investors they tend to push up the prices of some shares by blindly following instant price movements. This is created by organized effort by some one (I don't know who they are). For a moment think that this is done by foreign investors. When the price is at its potential peak, foreigners sell there shares and go home with a huge capital gain. Can you imagine the economy wide consequences?

Simply all Sri Lankan investors might be owing money to one another and if they choose to hold strategy, their own capital will decreased to ZERO as interest accrue on the credit balance. However, at least your own capital could be recovered some other day if you have used your own money to invest in share market.

If you get a loan for a building construction, you have to pay interest on it, but at the same time your property value is appreciated if there is not economic recession.

When you get a OD facility, interest is accrued only to the extent you use it and most of the cases it is temporary. Also you know most of the variables contributing to the success of the business before taking the decision to maintain OD. So the risk is minimal compared to share market and using credit card for bills.

Not like above two scenarios, when you have a credit card you are purchasing consumable items which are not essential to your life. But you are safe to some extent if you can settle the bill during the grace period, otherwise you have to pay very big amount of interest and there is no value appreciation, as per my understanding around 30% of items cost. I never use credit card.



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