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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Future Market Direction

Future Market Direction

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1Future Market Direction Empty Future Market Direction Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:21 pm

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Now the IPOs are over. Remaining (CIFL) is a minor one. People who got burned with overpriced IPOs will concentrate only in secondary market in the future.

Those companies who intent to list in the Colombo bourse and who want to make rights issues, will think twice when pricing the share issues in the future. Further the government has already announced that Air Lanka Catering, Insurance Corp., Litro Gas are not listing, at least for the next six months.

So, I think market will gradually settle down. We saw yesterday that the selling pressure on SHL and VONE is over and they are on the move. There was some demand for GREG also. Other shares also will get active in the coming weeks. Main thing is investors shouldn't participate in panic selling. It will only provide big players, much needed opportunity to grab those. Think about the, poor guys who sold SHL on Tuesday at a massive loss? Guys who collected those shares? They got nearly a 40% return in less than 24hrs.

I think there should be some regulatory involvement also. As lot of IPOs and introductions came in some steps should be taken to create liquidity in the market.

Relaxing the credit rulings is must. Though there were some relaxations announced in the last month, brokers didn't follow those. May be they don't want to follow ad hoc and temporary relaxations. Allowing credit according to broker's capital, as in major markets is a good thing. Regulator can monitor broker companies as in the case of other financial institutions.

Further steps should be taken to bring more capital into the market, by encouraging people to invest in the market. Central bank already hinted that they will reduce interest rates further in the coming month which is a good sign.
So, it is my belief the agony is over. Open for discussion.

2Future Market Direction Empty Re: Future Market Direction Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:57 pm

dewminigamlath


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
That was a very good explanation of the trend in the market. The following is another good article about CSE behavior in the recent past, from LBO web site:

http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1304693252

3Future Market Direction Empty Re: Future Market Direction Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:01 pm

dewminigamlath


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Just after posting the above, I saw that the article already appears in this forum:

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t6655-sri-lanka-ipos-fall-from-grace-worth-to-read

Thanks maalinda

4Future Market Direction Empty Re: Future Market Direction Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:31 pm

JennyFunny


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
good articles..sums current market conditions well..I have a feeling that CSE is going to move up in next few weeks..

5Future Market Direction Empty Re: Future Market Direction Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:35 pm

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Look like steady and upwards. Future trend is highcap , large scale businesses.



Last edited by Aamiable on Fri Jul 15, 2011 2:41 pm; edited 1 time in total

6Future Market Direction Empty Re: Future Market Direction Fri Jul 15, 2011 1:28 pm

ShareShares


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@hariesha wrote:Now the IPOs are over. Remaining (CIFL) is a minor one. People who got burned with overpriced IPOs will concentrate only in secondary market in the future.

Those companies who intent to list in the Colombo bourse and who want to make rights issues, will think twice when pricing the share issues in the future. Further the government has already announced that Air Lanka Catering, Insurance Corp., Litro Gas are not listing, at least for the next six months.

So, I think market will gradually settle down. We saw yesterday that the selling pressure on SHL and VONE is over and they are on the move. There was some demand for GREG also. Other shares also will get active in the coming weeks. Main thing is investors shouldn't participate in panic selling. It will only provide big players, much needed opportunity to grab those. Think about the, poor guys who sold SHL on Tuesday at a massive loss? Guys who collected those shares? They got nearly a 40% return in less than 24hrs.

I think there should be some regulatory involvement also. As lot of IPOs and introductions came in some steps should be taken to create liquidity in the market.

Relaxing the credit rulings is must. Though there were some relaxations announced in the last month, brokers didn't follow those. May be they don't want to follow ad hoc and temporary relaxations. Allowing credit according to broker's capital, as in major markets is a good thing. Regulator can monitor broker companies as in the case of other financial institutions.

Further steps should be taken to bring more capital into the market, by encouraging people to invest in the market. Central bank already hinted that they will reduce interest rates further in the coming month which is a good sign.
So, it is my belief the agony is over. Open for discussion.


From now, investors can expect some positive developments

7Future Market Direction Empty Re: Future Market Direction Fri Jul 15, 2011 3:07 pm

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
HNB DIST JKH BUKI COMB seem to be up

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