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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » What do you think about these shares?

What do you think about these shares?

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1What do you think about these shares? Empty What do you think about these shares? Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:53 am

greedy007


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
BFL NTB REG CIND SAMP KGAL KOTA LCEY

SLMarketWatch


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@greedy007 wrote:BFL NTB REG CIND SAMP KGAL KOTA LCEY

We have to wait and see.

Even during last quarter they were able to control their cost due to their own maize project despite floods. According to annual report they said they could have produced more maize if they didn’t have floods.

Now even rice prices are coming down. Sooner than later country not only will become self sufficient in both maize and rice but also they can export.

In the medium run and long run they should be able to reduce their cost further due to their own maize and rice project. Remember they just started to expand their businesses by setting up BOI project. We also should not forget about coming rapid development in tourism. BFL can benefit lot. If we see some new developments even GRAN can benefit in the coming quarters

I think we should compare BFL with another food stock NEST in the coming financial years to get some ideas and to get some value. Both companies can have growth in the coming years.

We have to accept no company can maintain higher earning continuously including blue chips. There can be some period in the coming decade.

Agri-Business, Tourism, IT and IT related are in initial stage of the growth cycle in the country.

DISCLAIMER

The above statement is not meant to influence anyone\'s decision to buy/sell/hold/ rotate any stock

Please do home work before take any decision


Good luck

greedy007


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@SLMarketWatch wrote:
@greedy007 wrote:BFL NTB REG CIND SAMP KGAL KOTA LCEY

We have to wait and see.

Even during last quarter they were able to control their cost due to their own maize project despite floods. According to annual report they said they could have produced more maize if they didn’t have floods.

Now even rice prices are coming down. Sooner than later country not only will become self sufficient in both maize and rice but also they can export.

In the medium run and long run they should be able to reduce their cost further due to their own maize and rice project. Remember they just started to expand their businesses by setting up BOI project. We also should not forget about coming rapid development in tourism. BFL can benefit lot. If we see some new developments even GRAN can benefit in the coming quarters

I think we should compare BFL with another food stock NEST in the coming financial years to get some ideas and to get some value. Both companies can have growth in the coming years.

We have to accept no company can maintain higher earning continuously including blue chips. There can be some period in the coming decade.

Agri-Business, Tourism, IT and IT related are in initial stage of the growth cycle in the country.

DISCLAIMER

The above statement is not meant to influence anyone\'s decision to buy/sell/hold/ rotate any stock

Please do home work before take any decision


Good luck

@SLMARKETWATCH,

Thanks for the replies. Do you think BFL's cost structure may have changed from Q/E 31 March 2011 to the current period?

SLMarketWatch


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@greedy007 wrote:[

@SLMARKETWATCH,

Thanks for the replies. Do you think BFL's cost structure may have changed from Q/E 31 March 2011 to the current period?[/quote]

Groups to watch during next five years

Agri Food - Businesses
Travel and tourism
Plantations
IT and IT related
Diversified group (under this diversified companies in other groups including diversified plantations group and chemical based group also should be included)
Construction, mining, cable and ceramic
Banking

We can have few above average cash cows in above groups in the coming years.

Then we can have following type of group rally and group correction time to time during next five years. Even during last 10 quarters we had stock, group and sector oriented bull markets and correction time to time. Recently we had more than 50% correction for some stocks. Some stocks didn’t have any meaningful rally during last three quarters and they have stagnated and their correction is negligible. Some stocks had less than 10% correction. Some had correction of less than 20%

Market leaders and group leaders rally

Selected hotels rally

Food rally such as sugar rally, chicken rally, salt rally, soya rally, dairy products rally

Consumer staples rally including food

Rubber and palm oil rally

Tea rally

Small cap rally, mid and large cap rally

Chemical related rally

Banking rally

If we can identify some coming group rally or any other rally in advance we can accumulate stocks slowly and systematically.

During remaining quarters some companies can have easy access to raw materials due to increased production. Their cost can come down.

Some companies can have additional income due to by products; value added product and few diversified businesses

Finally we should stick to our strategy even when times are tough

DISCLAIMER

The above statement is not meant to influence anyone\'s decision to buy/sell/hold/ rotate any stock or group.

Please do home work before take any decision


Good luck

SLMarketWatch


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Yes there are few bubble stocks but many stocks have rich valuations now.

There are few extremely over valued stocks. There are quality stocks such as NEST, COMB as well. Nest is a real gem. It is real rock. It didn’t come down .I love this food stock and I missed this although I had my radar on this special stock. It is very difficult to find sellers for some stocks such as NEST. Even HAYL didn’t come down much despite poor EPS during last quarter. JKH also didn’t come down much. These types of stocks are free from speculators and some long term players have invested in these types of stocks. I like to find these types of stocks now. I like to select stocks with less short term players in the future to avoid volatility

Players are playing higher P/E for hotels stocks due to expected growth in the coming years. When we remove those overvalued stocks market has very rich valuations now.

I expected some quality stocks to come down. It didn’t happen. I think they can come down during next 12 months. Then we can get some positions.

I think we have to analyse some other ratios including less long term debt, future earnings in addition to P/E to select some of the best stocks in the market. We also should have idea about earning in the coming financial years. Some are in a position to double their earnings and they can become more valuable in the future

overall I like value gems with growth potential, underdog and out of favour with great prospects, wonderful businesses and hidden gems. Some group including some boring businesses can out perform others in the coming years according to top global analysts and top investment bank globally.

Currently global markets may be down. But IT and tech related Consumer staples such as food stocks and boring stocks are doing better than others. Some of these global stocks can outperform market in the coming quarters according to top global investment bank.

In Sri-Lanka also we have stocks in these groups and they have attractive P/E compare with p/e ratio over 20 in other developed and emerging markets. Some of these global stocks are trading above the P/E 30 ratio now. In that sense P/E ratio for these stocks in the CSE is attractive when compare with other markets

Some new development can benefit some groups in the coming quarters.

Finally it is also better to keep some stocks targeting group oriented bull markets in the future due to new developments and demand for their products etc.

NB:

Those who new to the markets

Remember I always posted stock when they were rock bottom and most of my stock target for long term.

Once I do more study I will post list of stocks in this forum like in 2009 including hidden gems and remember as I said before I don’t buy every stocks that I post in this forum. Do not chase stocks and Pl do some study.


DISCLAIMER

The above statement is not meant to influence anyone\'s decision to buy/sell/hold/ rotate any stock

Please do home work before take any decision


Good luck

SLMarketWatch


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Scenario during next 12 months

Some will just sit and wait if they are in real cash cows and hidden assets.
Some will unload if they see long term fundamentals are going to become weak and if they see too many speculators and when they cannot identify personality and pattern

Some will grab great opportunities sometimes lifetime opportunities

Some will stay with slow growers

Some will stay with fast growers

Some will stay with speculative counters

Some will play both side of the game\

Some will act like swing traders

Some will become greedy and some will become fear

Some will become panic

Some will stay calm and quite

Some will look for hidden gems

Some will look for asset play

Some will accumulate overvalued counters

Some will try to down load their holdings and will move their funds to other counters even if they are overvalued

Some will stick to their own successful strategy

Some will play range bound and volatility

We cannot identity move of some sophisticated players

In short by 2012 they will realize they have made some mistakes by doing wrong move such as by rotating, holding, buying or selling wrong stocks


DISCLAIMER

The above statement is not meant to influence anyone\'s decision to buy/sell/hold/ rotate any stock

Please do home work before take any decision


Good luck

mohith

mohith
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
it is quit OK to buy BFL @ this situation because TAFL shows 20% Gain today but BFl only shows very small improvement ,which tells you good return from BFL near future

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