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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Is this Really a Bull run or is it a shot in the arm bear run

Is this Really a Bull run or is it a shot in the arm bear run

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suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Would like to know your thoughts. In my view 100+ yesterday and close to 200 points today is not a very healthy signal

Investor99


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
This market up trend is based on the discussion that brokers are having with the CSE regarding the unregulated credit issue. The outcome of these discussions can be positive or can be negative. In my opinion the crowd is expecting a positive outcome and are on a buying spree.

raa


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Heavy weights like JKH, SPEN, AHUN, SEYB, COMB, etc haven't moved which is not a good sign. These stocks should lead any fundamentally driven bull run. Foreign outflows in this market is not a good sign therefore I have my reservations about this run.

Ransiri Silva

Ransiri Silva
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@Investor99 wrote:This market up trend is based on the discussion that brokers are having with the CSE regarding the unregulated credit issue. The outcome of these discussions can be positive or can be negative. In my opinion the crowd is expecting a positive outcome and are on a buying spree.


I think the answer may be positive from retailers side (some relax on the credit rule), but I am afraid that how many retailers are there in this bull run. As many pointed, this may not be the start of the upward trend many awaiting.

Investor99


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
According to my broker the discussions are about the settlement of T+5, they are trying to get T+X where X can be 10 days or 15 etc. Also CSE will bring in addition rules where the brokers might need to comply.

udeni

udeni
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Investor99 wrote:According to my broker the discussions are about the settlement of T+5, they are trying to get T+X where X can be 10 days or 15 etc. Also CSE will bring in addition rules where the brokers might need to comply.

If T+5 rule is relaxed it affects the retailer in both ways. When expecting settlement for sales the retailer will have to wait for T+X days for settlement by the broker. (Assuming there were no purchases during that period)

MJ


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@raa wrote:Heavy weights like JKH, SPEN, AHUN, SEYB, COMB, etc haven't moved which is not a good sign. These stocks should lead any fundamentally driven bull run. Foreign outflows in this market is not a good sign therefore I have my reservations about this run.


What you say makes sence, But in general from what we have seen in the past....Heavy Weights never make massive moves in any Bull run. Those shares have always appriated over the time, not based on Bull Runs.
You can expect to have a run with SEYB, But I very much doubt the others...thise will appriciate on in single digits per day( Same when it goes down too )

I have spoken to a few Brokers , According to them , majority buying is from Retailers ( Unfortunately I donot have figures to quote )
Definitly PPl are expecting some good news from Regulators, which has an impact on the Run.

Anyway..We still have to wait another couple of days to see where exactly the market is turning to, Hopefuly UPWARDS !!!!

suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The settlement was T+8 any way before this rule was introduced. The guys who jumped the 8 days were wacked an interest by the broker company. I do not know what the big fuss about this is as even going on Margin trading is similar I guess. Correct me if I am wrong. This is not due to credit.

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@raa wrote:Heavy weights like JKH, SPEN, AHUN, SEYB, COMB, etc haven't moved which is not a good sign. These stocks should lead any fundamentally driven bull run. Foreign outflows in this market is not a good sign therefore I have my reservations about this run.


agreed .. if these heavy weights run then indexes up massively. it is not good because foriegners do not come to CSE assuming market is overvalued. but truth is we can find lot of undervalued growth potential counters in the market.

Rocky

Rocky
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@econ wrote:
@raa wrote:Heavy weights like JKH, SPEN, AHUN, SEYB, COMB, etc haven't moved which is not a good sign. These stocks should lead any fundamentally driven bull run. Foreign outflows in this market is not a good sign therefore I have my reservations about this run.


agreed .. if these heavy weights run then indexes up massively. it is not good because foriegners do not come to CSE assuming market is overvalued. but truth is we can find lot of undervalued growth potential counters in the market.

Agree that if the so called 'white man' (Indian, Malay, ME and expats etc included) does not buy and hold on for at least a year one cannot expect any stability in the market.


Our guys want instant gratification, and it is a sign of the times, especially the newcomers.

abra12


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@udeni wrote:
@Investor99 wrote:According to my broker the discussions are about the settlement of T+5, they are trying to get T+X where X can be 10 days or 15 etc. Also CSE will bring in addition rules where the brokers might need to comply.

If T+5 rule is relaxed it affects the retailer in both ways. When expecting settlement for sales the retailer will have to wait for T+X days for settlement by the broker. (Assuming there were no purchases during that period)

A good point.

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