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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » Future of KAPI?

Future of KAPI?

+2
TelesHope
gunbuddy
6 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Future of KAPI? Empty Future of KAPI? Mon Feb 14, 2011 10:23 am

gunbuddy

gunbuddy
Stock Trader

The price band imposed on KAPI is going to be lifted from tomorrow. Would this change the downward trend of the share?
Your views on this are highly appreciated.

2Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:49 am

TelesHope

TelesHope
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

gunbuddy wrote:The price band imposed on KAPI is going to be lifted from tomorrow. Would this change the downward trend of the share?
Your views on this are highly appreciated.

KAPI is a loss making, overvalued and speculative counter. After the 1:19 rights issue, the earning will be further diluted; and there is no fundamental reason for this stock trade around 70's. Anyway, who cares about fundamentals in CSE??

3Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Mon Feb 14, 2011 12:37 pm

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

TelesHope wrote:
gunbuddy wrote:The price band imposed on KAPI is going to be lifted from tomorrow. Would this change the downward trend of the share?
Your views on this are highly appreciated.

KAPI is a loss making, overvalued and speculative counter. After the 1:19 rights issue, the earning will be further diluted; and there is no fundamental reason for this stock trade around 70's. Anyway, who cares about fundamentals in CSE??

Hi Telescope

I think You have not done proper analysis on KAPI....Now you are very jealous for the people who have got KAPi at lowest price...

Fuhrer You have not answered my question about BV and EPS. You started talking bla bla about gearing. Before I investing on KAPI, I have analyzed it financial before the rights issue..

Layman can understand about BV and EPS after the rights issue. Each rights has book value. i.e Cash Value.( KAPI right has Rs.33 book value) and when calculating the EPS, EPE will get diluted. I ll elaborate my calculation for the layman investors like you..

Before Rights Issue

Equity --------------------- Rs.347,740,238

No of Shares ------------- 5,717,857

NAV Per Share ---------- Rs.60.80 ( Business Value Per Share)

Total Attributable Value to Equity Shareholder ------------ Rs.143,719,884

No of Shares ------------- 5,717,857

NAV Per Share ---------- Rs. 25.13 ( Value /Share to Equity Shareholder)

Total Group Earnings --------- Rs.(15,840,615)

EPS/ Share ------------- Rs. (Rs.2.77)


The Right Issue

Right issue 19:1 @ 33

Total Share issued on Rights ----------------- 108,639,283

Total Proceeds From Rights ----------------- Rs. 3,585,096,339.00

NAV/ Share After Rights

Equity ----------------------------------------------- Rs.347,740,238

Total Proceeds From Rights ----------------- Rs. 3,585,096,339

Total -----------------------------------------------Rs. 3,932,836,577

Total No of Shares After Rights-------------- 114,357,140

NAV Per Share ---------- Rs.34.40 ( Business Value Per Share)

Total Attributable Value to Equity Shareholder ------------ Rs. 143,719,884

Total Proceeds From Rights ----------------- --------------------Rs. 3,585,096,339

Total ----------------------------------------------- -------------------- Rs. 3,728,816,223

Total No of Shares After Rights----------------------------------- 114,357,140

NAV Per Share ---------- Rs. 32.60 ( Value /Share to Equity Shareholder)


EPS / Share After Rights

Total Group Earnings --------- ---------------------------------- Rs.(15,840,615)

Total No of Shares After Rights----------------------------------- 114,357,140

EPS/ Share ------------- Rs. (Rs.0.14)



Now I come to your gearing issues.

Total borrowing of Group ( As per Sep 2010)

Interest Bearing loans---------------------------------- Rs. 707,045,353

Non Interest Bearing loans--------------------------- Rs. 848,278,262

Overdraft ------------------------------------------------ Rs.226,647,954

Total Borrowings --------------------------------------- Rs.1,781,971,569

Total Interest Expenses.-----------------------------------Rs 67,051,237

The Purpose of right Issue

The purpose for which the proceeds of the issue are to be utilized

1. To capitalize loans received for the acquisition of companies previously

2. To acquire Northern Power Company (Pvt) Ltd

3. To Finance Working Capital of the company

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/9961288151500_444.pdf

The proceeds of this Rights Issue will be used for the 100% purchase of Northern Power Company Private Limited, a 30MW HFO power plant located in Chunnakam, Jaffna, as the largest provider of electricity to the Jaffna Peninsula. The balance of the Rights Issue proceeds will be used for capital expenditure and working capital requirements of the MTD Group of Companies.

http://srilankastockpicks.blogspot.com/2010/12/mtd-walkers-plc-announce-rights-issue.html

We do not know about the numbers of the loans received for the acquisition of companies previously and the amount required to acquire Northern Power Company (Pvt) Ltd. However I would say major part of the loan will be settled from the right issue. Hence Finance cost amounts Rs.67Mn will be reduced and this would strengthen the bottom line. This scenario will highlight only on 4th quarter results.

Let us workout the utilization of right issue

Total Proceeds From Rights ----------------- --------------------Rs. 3,585,096,339

Interest Bearing loans---------------------------------- ------------- Rs. 707,045,353 1st Preference to settle

Overdraft -------------------------------------------------------------- Rs.226,647,954 2nd Preference

Non Interest Bearing loans--------------------------- -------------- Rs. 848,278,262

(This loan may be obtained from parent company, there should be flexibility for the repayment)

Hence the amounts of Rs.2Bn (after settlement of interest bearing loans and OD) will be utilized for the acquisition of Northern Power Company (Pvt) Ltd , other investment opportunities and working capital requirement.

We can see the restructured and sound balance sheet from the 4th quarter. Further income generate from new projects ( mentioned in previous ) also will contribute to strengthen the company performance and value…

Keep on Investing in growth sectors……

Happy Trading

4Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Mon Feb 14, 2011 12:50 pm

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

gunbuddy wrote:The price band imposed on KAPI is going to be lifted from tomorrow. Would this change the downward trend of the share?
Your views on this are highly appreciated.

Hi gunbuddy

After price band lifted we would see the upward momentum.. We can see lot of developments and new projects from KAPI, that would reflect only after 4th quarter results. the 4th quarter results would be very much attractive.. We have to wait till the 4th quarter results then it would easily hit in the range of Rs.130-150....

Happy Trading

5Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Mon Feb 14, 2011 1:08 pm

gunbuddy

gunbuddy
Stock Trader

Thank you so much for the wonderful analysis seyon. I will hold on to this.

6Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:38 pm

TelesHope

TelesHope
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Seyon, I replied your question earlier. I just repost that again...I don't write rubbish or blah blah stories....Read between the lines of my post...you will get the answers of your questions or find a good tution master for interpretation lol!



TelesHope wrote:
@Seyon, unless you dig into the books of the company, you can not predict the EPS and BV of a company after a rights issue.

Total Number of Shares after 19:1 rights = 114,357,140 and the Debt/Equity % (According to September Qtr) = 1823% (Highly Geared)

Assuming a conservative PE of 15; the company should make of an annual PAT (Profit after tax) of 610 Mn (Qtr PAT = 152.5 Mn) with an EPS of 5.3 for a share price of Rs. 80. Similarly, it should make of an annual PAT (Profit after tax) of 1.15 Bn (Qtr PAT = 286 Mn) with an EPS of 10 for a share price of Rs. 150.

Unlike some other sectors, construction industry can not do miracles within a short period. This company is highly geared, and until they show real PAT, it is just a speculative share.

Anyway, this share is illiquid because the public float is ~10%. So, easy to manipulate the prices until dump investors are there in CSE.

7Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:50 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

TelesHope, I said pretty much the same thing in another thread on KAPI. The share has appreciated 50% from the XR price. Never mind the resultant 1/19 EPS dilution!



8Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Mon Feb 14, 2011 4:02 pm

TelesHope

TelesHope
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

seyon wrote:
TelesHope wrote:
gunbuddy wrote:The price band imposed on KAPI is going to be lifted from tomorrow. Would this change the downward trend of the share?
Your views on this are highly appreciated.

KAPI is a loss making, overvalued and speculative counter. After the 1:19 rights issue, the earning will be further diluted; and there is no fundamental reason for this stock trade around 70's. Anyway, who cares about fundamentals in CSE??

Hi Telescope

I think You have not done proper analysis on KAPI....Now you are very jealous for the people who have got KAPi at lowest price...

Seyon,

I am not a fool to burn my fingers by buying loss making, horribly overvalued counters.
I am not jealous about KAPI....but I am sure that you are panicked ...that's what your marketting campaign is on full swing

lol!
Only the reason that I responded your post on KAPI is I am well aware of your marketing tactics…. how you spammed the Investnow lk is history!!!I just want to warn the newbees about the potential risks of your marketting/promotional campaign !!!

9Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Mon Feb 14, 2011 4:16 pm

TelesHope

TelesHope
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

tubal wrote:TelesHope, I said pretty much the same thing in another thread on KAPI. The share has appreciated 50% from the XR price. Never mind the resultant 1/19 EPS dilution!

@tubal, thanks buddy....I read you post Smile

10Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:19 pm

RockStock


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

TelesHope wrote:
gunbuddy wrote:The price band imposed on KAPI is going to be lifted from tomorrow. Would this change the downward trend of the share?
Your views on this are highly appreciated.

KAPI is a loss making, overvalued and speculative counter. After the 1:19 rights issue, the earning will be further diluted; and there is no fundamental reason for this stock trade around 70's. Anyway, who cares about fundamentals in CSE??

Some people only know about EPS and P/E ratio, consider only past earnings. Only few intelligent fellows who mastered analysing the future earnings,future prospects and do long term investments. Future will decide who are the winners

11Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:25 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

RockStock wrote:
TelesHope wrote:
gunbuddy wrote:The price band imposed on KAPI is going to be lifted from tomorrow. Would this change the downward trend of the share?
Your views on this are highly appreciated.

KAPI is a loss making, overvalued and speculative counter. After the 1:19 rights issue, the earning will be further diluted; and there is no fundamental reason for this stock trade around 70's. Anyway, who cares about fundamentals in CSE??

Some people only know about EPS and P/E ratio, consider only past earnings. Only few intelligent fellows who mastered analysing the future earnings,future prospects and do long term investments. Future will decide who are the winners

I bow to the wisdom of the master.
I hope lesser mortals reading this thread will stick to the basics.

12Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Mon Feb 14, 2011 10:47 pm

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

TelesHope wrote:Seyon, I replied your question earlier. I just repost that again...I don't write rubbish or blah blah stories....Read between the lines of my post...you will get the answers of your questions or find a good tution master for interpretation lol!



TelesHope wrote:
@Seyon, unless you dig into the books of the company, you can not predict the EPS and BV of a company after a rights issue.

Total Number of Shares after 19:1 rights = 114,357,140 and the Debt/Equity % (According to September Qtr) = 1823% (Highly Geared)

Assuming a conservative PE of 15; the company should make of an annual PAT (Profit after tax) of 610 Mn (Qtr PAT = 152.5 Mn) with an EPS of 5.3 for a share price of Rs. 80. Similarly, it should make of an annual PAT (Profit after tax) of 1.15 Bn (Qtr PAT = 286 Mn) with an EPS of 10 for a share price of Rs. 150.

Unlike some other sectors, construction industry can not do miracles within a short period. This company is highly geared, and until they show real PAT, it is just a speculative share.

Anyway, this share is illiquid because the public float is ~10%. So, easy to manipulate the prices until dump investors are there in CSE.


Re: KAPI is on Track in Developing New Projects.......

Post seyon on Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:07 pm

TelesHope wrote:Mr. Seyon, your beloved KAPI is not worth more than 40 Rs. I feel sorry about you because your knowledge in company valuation and finances is SUBZERO !!!, because it is hillarious that you calculated EPS and BV from rights issue....where did you learn accounting?? from Pettah Payment Hawkers??? LOL



Ok TelesHope

Can u tell me the EPS and BV after the rights............ If you are good in accounting and Company Valuation...

Happy Trading

seyon


Hi My dear friend this was the post, i asked you to calculate EPS and BV after the rights................ If you are good in accounting and Company Valuation...

But you talked about gearing PE valuation...... First You Calculate BV and EPS after the rights... then you talk whatever u trying to explain us

I know KAPI is highly geared before the rights..... You would see the forth quarter results How the balance sheet and performance will be improved.....

Read below my analysis

Layman can understand about BV and EPS after the rights issue. Each rights has book value. i.e Cash Value.( KAPI right has Rs.33 book value) and when calculating the EPS, EPE will get diluted. I ll elaborate my calculation for the layman investors like you..

Before Rights Issue

Equity --------------------- Rs.347,740,238

No of Shares ------------- 5,717,857

NAV Per Share ---------- Rs.60.80 ( Business Value Per Share)

Total Attributable Value to Equity Shareholder ------------ Rs.143,719,884

No of Shares ------------- 5,717,857

NAV Per Share ---------- Rs. 25.13 ( Value /Share to Equity Shareholder)

Total Group Earnings --------- Rs.(15,840,615)

EPS/ Share ------------- Rs. (Rs.2.77)


The Right Issue

Right issue 19:1 @ 33

Total Share issued on Rights ----------------- 108,639,283

Total Proceeds From Rights ----------------- Rs. 3,585,096,339.00

NAV/ Share After Rights

Equity ----------------------------------------------- Rs.347,740,238

Total Proceeds From Rights ----------------- Rs. 3,585,096,339

Total -----------------------------------------------Rs. 3,932,836,577

Total No of Shares After Rights-------------- 114,357,140

NAV Per Share ---------- Rs.34.40 ( Business Value Per Share)

Total Attributable Value to Equity Shareholder ------------ Rs. 143,719,884

Total Proceeds From Rights ----------------- --------------------Rs. 3,585,096,339

Total ----------------------------------------------- -------------------- Rs. 3,728,816,223

Total No of Shares After Rights----------------------------------- 114,357,140

NAV Per Share ---------- Rs. 32.60 ( Value /Share to Equity Shareholder)

EPS / Share After Rights

Total Group Earnings --------- ---------------------------------- Rs.(15,840,615)

Total No of Shares After Rights----------------------------------- 114,357,140

EPS/ Share ------------- Rs. (Rs.0.14)


Now I come to your gearing issues.

Total borrowing of Group ( As per Sep 2010)

Interest Bearing loans---------------------------------- Rs. 707,045,353

Non Interest Bearing loans--------------------------- Rs. 848,278,262

Overdraft ------------------------------------------------ Rs.226,647,954

Total Borrowings --------------------------------------- Rs.1,781,971,569

Total Interest Expenses.-----------------------------------Rs 67,051,237

The Purpose of right Issue

The purpose for which the proceeds of the issue are to be utilized

1. To capitalize loans received for the acquisition of companies previously

2. To acquire Northern Power Company (Pvt) Ltd

3. To Finance Working Capital of the company

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/9961288151500_444.pdf

The proceeds of this Rights Issue will be used for the 100% purchase of Northern Power Company Private Limited, a 30MW HFO power plant located in Chunnakam, Jaffna, as the largest provider of electricity to the Jaffna Peninsula. The balance of the Rights Issue proceeds will be used for capital expenditure and working capital requirements of the MTD Group of Companies.

http://srilankastockpicks.blogspot.com/2010/12/mtd-walkers-plc-announce-rights-issue.html

We do not know about the numbers of the loans received for the acquisition of companies previously and the amount required to acquire Northern Power Company (Pvt) Ltd. However I would say major part of the loan will be settled from the right issue. Hence Finance cost amounts Rs.67Mn will be reduced and this would strengthen the bottom line. This scenario will highlight only on 4th quarter results.

Let us workout the utilization of right issue

Total Proceeds From Rights ----------------- --------------------Rs. 3,585,096,339

Interest Bearing loans---------------------------------- ------------- Rs. 707,045,353 1st Preference to settle

Overdraft -------------------------------------------------------------- Rs.226,647,954 2nd Preference

Non Interest Bearing loans--------------------------- -------------- Rs. 848,278,262

(This loan may be obtained from parent company, there should be flexibility for the repayment)

Hence the amounts of Rs.2Bn (after settlement of interest bearing loans and OD) will be utilized for the acquisition of Northern Power Company (Pvt) Ltd , other investment opportunities and working capital requirement.

We can see the restructured and sound balance sheet from the 4th quarter. Further income generate from new projects ( mentioned in previous ) also will contribute to strengthen the company performance and value…

Keep on Investing in growth sectors……

13Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:21 pm

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

tubal wrote:TelesHope, I said pretty much the same thing in another thread on KAPI. The share has appreciated 50% from the XR price. Never mind the resultant 1/19 EPS dilution!




Hi tubal

I do not rely on the past performance of any stocks.... We must have to analyze the future earnings and growth form the companies.. In this scenario. KAPI has strong potential and growth in construction sector... some time you may have to hold for some times to get max return.

If you analyze their projects and development strategy... You will be able to understand KAPI...

Happy Trading

14Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:22 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

seyon wrote:
tubal wrote:TelesHope, I said pretty much the same thing in another thread on KAPI. The share has appreciated 50% from the XR price. Never mind the resultant 1/19 EPS dilution!




Hi tubal

I do not rely on the past performance of any stocks.... We must have to analyze the future earnings and growth form the companies.. In this scenario. KAPI has strong potential and growth in construction sector... some time you may have to hold for some times to get max return.

If you analyze their projects and development strategy... You will be able to understand KAPI...

Happy Trading

Yes Seyon, future earnings will have to be about 3000% better than past earnings to make up for the increased number of shares from the rights issue.

15Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:33 pm

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

tubal wrote:
seyon wrote:
tubal wrote:TelesHope, I said pretty much the same thing in another thread on KAPI. The share has appreciated 50% from the XR price. Never mind the resultant 1/19 EPS dilution!




Hi tubal

I do not rely on the past performance of any stocks.... We must have to analyze the future earnings and growth form the companies.. In this scenario. KAPI has strong potential and growth in construction sector... some time you may have to hold for some times to get max return.

If you analyze their projects and development strategy... You will be able to understand KAPI...

Happy Trading

Yes Seyon, future earnings will have to be about 3000% better than past earnings to make up for the increased number of shares from the rights issue.

Hi Tubal

I dont think that company needs ur threshold to reflect the correct value... when u compare with corresponding results, corresponding results should be diluted...

Happy Trading

16Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Tue Feb 15, 2011 3:07 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Seyon, aren't you saying the exact same thing that I am trying to say? The earnings will be massively diluted. That's why they need at least 3000% growth to make up for it.

17Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Tue Feb 15, 2011 6:14 pm

TelesHope

TelesHope
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

tubal wrote:Seyon, aren't you saying the exact same thing that I am trying to say? The earnings will be massively diluted. That's why they need at least 3000% growth to make up for it.

tubal, many people in CSE never understand the risks of over-speculation (if not, Hyperspeculation). Media hypes, internet gossips, word-by-mouth (hear-say) and herd instinct drive the market. Speculative risk dominates calculative risk and the early birds win while the late birds bleed. We evidenced this mishap recently in some mid-cap and high-cap counters... Sad

What I find is...the marketting professionals in CSE are more or less Stubborn guys and they are far from reality Rolling Eyes

Anyway, there are 2 sides on a Coin...let the masses decide the best...their money; their petrol and their car lol!



Last edited by TelesHope on Tue Feb 15, 2011 6:19 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Oops Grammer...)

18Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Tue Feb 15, 2011 6:27 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Right you are TelesHope , I am going to keep mum.

19Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Tue Feb 15, 2011 6:52 pm

TelesHope

TelesHope
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

tubal wrote:Right you are TelesHope , I am going to keep mum.

Me too gona do the same...

20Future of KAPI? Empty Re: Future of KAPI? Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:38 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics


Anyway, there are 2 sides on a Coin...let the masses decide the best...their money; their petrol and their car lol! [/quote]

Agree, i used to tell this way ur money, ur decision, ur profit & ur loss

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