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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » what about PAP.N ?

what about PAP.N ?

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1what about PAP.N ? Empty what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:39 pm

tkc

tkc
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
share ur valuable thoughts.

2what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:46 pm

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@tkc wrote:share ur valuable thoughts.

Hi tkc....

There will be upward momentum once the financial results out, I think it will hit in the range of Rs.4.80 and 5.00 and will stagnant in the range Rs.4.80

when will look at it earnings

Pan Asian Power - For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) ----45,159,110
Manelwala For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) ----- 6,421,291
Total For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) - ---51,580,401

3rd & 4th quarter Expected Profit -----70,000,000

Total -----131,580,401

Issued qty ------500,000,000

Annualized EPS ------ Rs.0.26

Current MKT Price ------ Rs.4.20

PE ------- Only 16 times

However in bloomberg has not adjusted Manelwala earnings and not annualised.. ( http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PAP:SL)

When you look at the other companies in power sector

VLL- 23 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=VLL:SL
HPWR -19 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HPWR:SL
VPEL - 17 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=VPEL:SL
HPFL - 23 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HPFL:SL

when HPWR was Rs.30 level I was telling in Investnow PAP and HPWR are the undervalued stock in the sectors. Now HPWR as i expected it hit rs.42 level...

My prediction is PAP will hit in the Range of Rs.5.20 5.50 once they release it financial and coming quarters..

Happy Trading..

3what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:00 pm

tkc

tkc
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
thnx!! seyon Smile

4what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:05 pm

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
i'm holding hell tons of PAP. so my post may be look like bias.

considering PAP plant at rathnapura, they manage to produce 70 Mn profit for last year. consider PAP plant is only 2 MW plant with 60% plant factor.

then they acquired MHPL plant which is 2.5 MW. newly established plant. PAP is owning 100% of MHPL. the plant is operating around 30~40% plant factor.

with consolidate group earnings PAP can easily produce at least 100 Mn profit for this year. it is 0.5 Annualized EPS. with average PE of 15 they can reach 7.5 Rs. with minimum PER of 12 they can reach 6 Rs. with sector PE it can pass 10.

Not in short run. but in mid or long run.

5what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:07 pm

tkc

tkc
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
when can we have their reports ?

6what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:11 pm

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@tkc wrote:when can we have their reports ?

Hi we would be able to see its financial....

7what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 3:19 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@xmart wrote:i'm holding hell tons of PAP. so my post may be look like bias.

considering PAP plant at rathnapura, they manage to produce 70 Mn profit for last year. consider PAP plant is only 2 MW plant with 60% plant factor.

then they acquired MHPL plant which is 2.5 MW. newly established plant. PAP is owning 100% of MHPL. the plant is operating around 30~40% plant factor.

with consolidate group earnings PAP can easily produce at least 100 Mn profit for this year. it is 0.5 Annualized EPS. with average PE of 15 they can reach 7.5 Rs. with minimum PER of 12 they can reach 6 Rs. with sector PE it can pass 10.

Not in short run. but in mid or long run.



To have EPS of Rs0.50, PAP should reports earning of Rs 250 mn? Further, I wonder what could be the impact of heavy rains prevailed in the last quarter - can be positive or negative?

8what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:14 pm

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
To have EPS of Rs0.50, PAP should reports earning of Rs 250 mn? Further, I wonder what could be the impact of heavy rains prevailed in the last quarter - can be positive or negative?

since issued qty is 200 Mn shares, i mistakenly use this figure. thanks for figuring out. well even eps is wrong my net profit target is right. ok! but to calculate EPS, lanka securities used 200 Mn. if this is wrong it is gonna be costly mistaken by myself. Rolling Eyes

can anybody elaborate issued qty is whether 200 Mn or 500 Mn. if 500 Mn what happened to rest of 300 Mn shares?

9what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:22 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
500mn according to CDAX

10what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:47 pm

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@mono wrote:500mn according to CDAX

then where is the hell other 300 Mn shares. IPO is for 200 Mn shares. confused

11what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 6:19 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
one director sold @3.70, http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/4511294383616_1040.pdf

one director bought @4.90,
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/9281295605188_1040.pdf

12what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:18 pm

tkc

tkc
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
who is the clever guy ? Question
but bought qty is higher than sold one.....

13what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:24 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
@tkc wrote:who is the clever guy ? Question
but bought qty is higher than sold one.....

ya......i think the buyer.....i sold my PAP@4.2.........
It may break soon.....have to watch quarterly results of this quarter...

14what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:24 pm

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
now i know why pps neglect PAP. this is due to this 500Mn vs 200 Mn conflict. i was in 200 Mn mode and wondering why people didn't recognize this. some one in 500 Mn side and wondering why people collecting this and everyday more than 2 Mn volume tradings.

but some broker firms also use 200 Mn thing at their researches. but as seyon said, even at 500 Mn case i'm safe. otherwise this will be the most costly mistake done by me. Question

15what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:30 pm

tkc

tkc
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hope it ll have a good future Smile
thnx!! guyz

16what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Wed Feb 16, 2011 2:52 am

shaankh

shaankh
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I agree with you seyon.

PAP will definitely will go up. from the outset it is undervalued.

More importantly they have minimal liabilities so they will definitely perform well.

Their earnings should go up in the next Q.

I have collected @4.0 -4.10today.

17what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:27 am

invest-abc


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
This is a post I made sometime back on PAP

World is rapidly moving towards renewable energy sources from the current high usage of non renewable energy sources such as fossil fuels (coal and oil) and nuclear power. This is mainly due to the rapid depletion of the non renewable sources and not to forget the adverse environmental impact from these sources. Some of the main renewable energy sources in use are hydro / solar / wind and tidal. Out of all the above sources hydro seems to be the most effective and efficient renewable energy source (e.g.: hydro power is the only renewable energy source which will provide a consistent load factor). So there is no doubt about the future potential of the world hydro power industry.

If we scrutinize all the power stocks in CSE I believe #PAP is the most attractive stock out of the lot. Some of the factors to consider 1) Small cap with aggressive expansion plans 2) Strong balance sheet (free of debt) 3) Very high ROE 4) Attractive P/E 5) Impressive plant factor (60%) 6) Future plans to expand its operations in other countries in the region.

18what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Fri Mar 18, 2011 11:35 pm

npc86

npc86
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I also exit from this PAP @4.3 before past weeks And here I think some persons promoting this artificially; may be I am wrong. And 2 directors deals have a considerable difference.
But friends do you have any news (or about Q1 report)...? scratch

19what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 6:16 am

tkc

tkc
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@npc86 wrote:I also exit from this PAP @4.3 before past weeks And here I think some persons promoting this artificially; may be I am wrong. And 2 directors deals have a considerable difference.
But friends do you have any news (or about Q1 report)...? scratch
Yes!! Really confused....

20what about PAP.N ? Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:33 am

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/2331300446799_1040.pdf - According to this Announcement 60 Million Shares represent 12%, that mean total issue quantity 500 Million Shares

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