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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » what about PAP.N ?

what about PAP.N ?

+12
smallville
StocksWatch
Gaja
npc86
invest-abc
shaankh
mark
mono
salt
xmart
seyon
tkc
16 posters

Go to page : 1, 2  Next

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21what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Wed Feb 16, 2011 2:52 am

shaankh


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I agree with you seyon.

PAP will definitely will go up. from the outset it is undervalued.

More importantly they have minimal liabilities so they will definitely perform well.

Their earnings should go up in the next Q.

I have collected @4.0 -4.10today.

22what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:27 am

invest-abc


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
This is a post I made sometime back on PAP

World is rapidly moving towards renewable energy sources from the current high usage of non renewable energy sources such as fossil fuels (coal and oil) and nuclear power. This is mainly due to the rapid depletion of the non renewable sources and not to forget the adverse environmental impact from these sources. Some of the main renewable energy sources in use are hydro / solar / wind and tidal. Out of all the above sources hydro seems to be the most effective and efficient renewable energy source (e.g.: hydro power is the only renewable energy source which will provide a consistent load factor). So there is no doubt about the future potential of the world hydro power industry.

If we scrutinize all the power stocks in CSE I believe #PAP is the most attractive stock out of the lot. Some of the factors to consider 1) Small cap with aggressive expansion plans 2) Strong balance sheet (free of debt) 3) Very high ROE 4) Attractive P/E 5) Impressive plant factor (60%) 6) Future plans to expand its operations in other countries in the region.

23what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Fri Mar 18, 2011 11:35 pm

npc86


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I also exit from this PAP @4.3 before past weeks And here I think some persons promoting this artificially; may be I am wrong. And 2 directors deals have a considerable difference.
But friends do you have any news (or about Q1 report)...? scratch

24what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 6:16 am

tkc


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@npc86 wrote:I also exit from this PAP @4.3 before past weeks And here I think some persons promoting this artificially; may be I am wrong. And 2 directors deals have a considerable difference.
But friends do you have any news (or about Q1 report)...? scratch
Yes!! Really confused....

25what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:33 am

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/2331300446799_1040.pdf - According to this Announcement 60 Million Shares represent 12%, that mean total issue quantity 500 Million Shares

26what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:41 am

StocksWatch


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Gaja wrote:http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/2331300446799_1040.pdf - According to this Announcement 60 Million Shares represent 12%, that mean total issue quantity 500 Million Shares

Do we know who is the seller?

27what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 10:26 am

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@npc86 wrote:I also exit from this PAP @4.3 before past weeks And here I think some persons promoting this artificially; may be I am wrong. And 2 directors deals have a considerable difference.
But friends do you have any news (or about Q1 report)...? scratch

Some one bought 60 million shares at 4.5. that's not a promotion it's a take over.

28what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 10:42 am

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@mono wrote:
@npc86 wrote:I also exit from this PAP @4.3 before past weeks And here I think some persons promoting this artificially; may be I am wrong. And 2 directors deals have a considerable difference.
But friends do you have any news (or about Q1 report)...? scratch

Some one bought 60 million shares at 4.5. that's not a promotion it's a take over.

@npc86,
270 Mn cost promotion????. why those ppl thinking like this?
if something goes opposite with their intention, called it promotion or manipulation.
mind your language friend.

29what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:08 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
We only have data till 30th Sep.. and rains hit the country in Nov-Dec period and then here and there intermittently too..
Let me take Seyon's hard work for this analysis..These financials will be the base..

PAP (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----45,159,110
Manelwala (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----- 6,421,291
Total For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) - ---51,580,401

Starting of tourists season, worldcup, would've increased the power consumption in country,
in line with this a revenue growth could easily be expected from power companies.
On that basis if we assume an increase in revenue for the next 2 qrts, due to last rainy season,
again there could possible be a hindrance to the expected growth. Therefore; both these factors could balance the revenue at same level
So my openion is; its safe to assume at least revenue levels would remain same for the last 6 months too.
So I'm adjusting the orinigal expected value with the new value;

3rd & 4th quarter Expected Profit -----51,580,401

Total -----103,160,802

Issued qty ------500,000,000
Annualized EPS - 131580401/500000000 = 0.21

Current MKT Price ------ Rs.4.20

Trading at a PE of - 4.20/0.21 = 20

P&E sector PE - 55.90

I persoally think this value is too high for the sector hence lets take half of it to be in safe side, say 28;
Hence an anticipated price level could be 28*0.21 = 5.88

So if the current weather conditions and industry out look remains same,
I think Seyon's prediction of price levels 5.20 - 5.50 is feasible in near future..

For your analysis pls..

30what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:14 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:We only have data till 30th Sep.. and rains hit the country in Nov-Dec period and then here and there intermittently too..
Let me take Seyon's hard work for this analysis..These financials will be the base..

PAP (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----45,159,110
Manelwala (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----- 6,421,291
Total For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) - ---51,580,401

Starting of tourists season, worldcup, would've increased the power consumption in country,
in line with this a revenue growth could easily be expected from power companies.
On that basis if we assume an increase in revenue for the next 2 qrts, due to last rainy season,
again there could possible be a hindrance to the expected growth. Therefore; both these factors could balance the revenue at same level
So my openion is; its safe to assume at least revenue levels would remain same for the last 6 months too.
So I'm adjusting the orinigal expected value with the new value;

3rd & 4th quarter Expected Profit -----51,580,401

Total -----103,160,802

Issued qty ------500,000,000
Annualized EPS - 131580401/500000000 = 0.21

Current MKT Price ------ Rs.4.20

Trading at a PE of - 4.20/0.21 = 20

P&E sector PE - 55.90

I persoally think this value is too high for the sector hence lets take half of it to be in safe side, say 28;
Hence an anticipated price level could be 28*0.21 = 5.88

So if the current weather conditions and industry out look remains same,
I think Seyon's prediction of price levels 5.20 - 5.50 is feasible in near future..

For your analysis pls..

Thanks smallville for the analysis... did u analyze the dividend payout... It is about 50%

I think they will come out with same ratio.... I am waiting for their financial...

Happy Trading..

31what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:21 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Oh I dint see it evn Sad
Their EPS is still low.. Is there any impact? Will they announce a div?
My thinking is div should be used for retained earning for their growth..

BTW, where did u find the financials, I searched the ticket but no data available ;(

32what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:27 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:Oh I dint see it evn Sad
Their EPS is still low.. Is there any impact? Will they announce a div?
My thinking is div should be used for retained earning for their growth..

BTW, where did u find the financials, I searched the ticket but no data available ;(



Dividend payout ratio..... ( Extract from Prospectus)

Before the IPO...

2009/10 EPS Rs.255..... DPS Rs.135 Div pay out ratio 53%
2008/09 EPS Rs.311..... DPS Rs.173 Div pay out ratio 56%

Still they did not release their financial after IPO.... This dividend details i extract from prospectus.....

Happy Trading....

33what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty For your analysis pls.. Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:37 am

silentsahan

silentsahan
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@smallville wrote:We only have data till 30th Sep.. and rains hit the country in Nov-Dec period and then here and there intermittently too..
Let me take Seyon's hard work for this analysis..These financials will be the base..

PAP (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----45,159,110
Manelwala (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----- 6,421,291
Total For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) - ---51,580,401

Starting of tourists season, worldcup, would've increased the power consumption in country,
in line with this a revenue growth could easily be expected from power companies.
On that basis if we assume an increase in revenue for the next 2 qrts, due to last rainy season,
again there could possible be a hindrance to the expected growth. Therefore; both these factors could balance the revenue at same level
So my openion is; its safe to assume at least revenue levels would remain same for the last 6 months too.
So I'm adjusting the orinigal expected value with the new value;

3rd & 4th quarter Expected Profit -----51,580,401

Total -----103,160,802

Issued qty ------500,000,000
Annualized EPS - 131580401/500000000 = 0.21

Current MKT Price ------ Rs.4.20

Trading at a PE of - 4.20/0.21 = 20

P&E sector PE - 55.90

I persoally think this value is too high for the sector hence lets take half of it to be in safe side, say 28;
Hence an anticipated price level could be 28*0.21 = 5.88

So if the current weather conditions and industry out look remains same,
I think Seyon's prediction of price levels 5.20 - 5.50 is feasible in near future..

For your analysis pls..


what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Papa10

34what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty PAP.... Mon Mar 21, 2011 8:24 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hi Guys

Just check out the link... this express PAP is relatively oversold at current scenario...

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/charts/charts.asp?ticker=PAP:SL

Happy Trading

35what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:26 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:Hi Guys

Just check out the link... this express PAP is relatively oversold at current scenario...

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/charts/charts.asp?ticker=PAP:SL

Happy Trading

I'd say that's a bit of out from the oversold region...
We could've bought this around 3.80 to be in safe side.. However looking at the volume on last trading day and the future outlook for the company, larger parcels being bought, etc... its still safe to assume entering at 4.10-4.20 wont do any harm if you keep it till at least next financials out..
I strongly believe 5.20 - 5.50 in near future is feasible Wink

36what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Sri Lanka power demand hits new peak Thu Mar 24, 2011 7:29 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Sri Lanka power demand hits new peak

Mar 23, 2011 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's night power demand hit a new peak load of 2,000 MegaWatts on Tuesday amid hot seasonal weather and growing usage, in a day that the utility officially commissioned a new 300 MegaWatt coal plant.
Power demand hit a peak of 1,999 MegaWatts at 7.30 in the evening not counting power generated by mini-hydro plants which can go up to 200 MegaWatts.

State-run Ceylon Electricity Board cannot immediately count the power generated from private mini-hydros which are not controlled centrally.

"We usually have high demand especially in March due to hot weather," state-run Ceylon Electricity Board chairman Vidya Amarapala said

"We have touched 2,000MW mainly to cater to the air conditioning load. We have also been increasing rural electrification which has increased the number of customers."

The CEB has a goal of electrifying most of the villages by 2012.

Amarapala said hotels were also using more power for air conditioning with high occupancy partly due to foreign fans that came to watch the cricket Word Cup series.

Tuesday had also seen the higher daily energy generated of 32.75 GigaWatt hours. Industry analyst say mini-hydro plants may have generated another one or two GigaWatt hours.

The CEB has also been giving power to the North and East of the country which emerged from a 30-year war in 2009.

Amarapala said the utility had enough installed capacity to meet the demand, which is expected to go up. On Tuesday the utility commissioned a 300 MegaWatt coal plant - the country's first.

Amarapala said the cost of generating a unit from the coal plant was 9.00 rupees a kilowatt hour at the latest coal prices.

This compares with just an energy cost of about 17 rupees for diesel combined cycles, around 9.40 for residual oil. The CEB sells power to small domestic users for only 3.00 rupees a unit.

37what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Thu Mar 24, 2011 10:22 am

marketsee

marketsee
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
where is the PAP Q report?????

38what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Fri Mar 25, 2011 12:11 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
With the new thinking about nuclear power sector after Japanese debacle the world may go further for fossil energy.

This may increase the value of renewable energy like hydro power and PAP is one of best in the current market prices. Their balance sheet after IPO and future plans are attractive.

Good investment for long term with lesser risk of falling value.
Effect of coal plants is low for debt free well managed hydro power when the cost of production of coal nearing 10 Rupees per unit.




39what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty Re: what about PAP.N ? Fri Mar 25, 2011 6:19 pm

StocksWatch


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
No doubt...definitely valuable counter to have in your portfolio for long term benefit.

40what about PAP.N ? - Page 2 Empty PAP Sat Mar 26, 2011 11:19 pm

gayannadeeka


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@StocksWatch wrote:No doubt...definitely valuable counter to have in your portfolio for long term benefit.

Thats true....

http://nadeekacf@facebook.com

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