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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000)

LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000)

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21LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sun Feb 13, 2011 1:45 pm

xmart


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
well, i don't think your move is wrong. to put all eggs in one basket you have to have good stomach. i will tell you something. my whole portfolio is consist of just 3 shares. SAMP, JINS and PAP. irrespective of time I can hold them until they reach my targets. meanwhile I'm doing fast tradings from credits to cover day to day expense. bounce

diversification is good. but if you identify potential shares, why don't you concentrate on those?
I think you will smile soon.

good luck

22LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sun Feb 13, 2011 2:14 pm

smallville


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@xmart wrote:well, i don't think your move is wrong. to put all eggs in one basket you have to have good stomach. i will tell you something. my whole portfolio is consist of just 3 shares. SAMP, JINS and PAP. irrespective of time I can hold them until they reach my targets. meanwhile I'm doing fast tradings from credits to cover day to day expense. bounce

diversification is good. but if you identify potential shares, why don't you concentrate on those?
I think you will smile soon.

good luck

Agree on ur thoughts.. but the idea is to minimize the risk on investments.. all in one basket means its highly risky.. what if something goes wrong and market adversely react to it.. ur whole investment may go haywire instantly..
On the other hand, there can be 2-3 potential shares on move and if ur smart enuf, better u jump into all 3 and make a buck out of it rather than hoping the angle share u have will grow (even its going on rapidly, there are other rapid growers as well)..

Even i increased my stake in LOLC recently cuz i'm also bullish on this.. but 50%-60% is the best amt not 100%..

23LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty confident Sun Feb 13, 2011 4:14 pm

DMA


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
i agree with ur strategy. if u have analysed the company, management and specially the future growth care fully. u can go for 100%. The people who get tips from others should diversify their portfolio.

And also now market is any way at the peak. so by diversifing ur portfolio u cant avoid the market risk.
I also follow the same strategy with another stock on which i put some comments here.
when we talk about only one share some think we promote it. no ????
I analyse only one or two at a time. then go for another set.

But when i feel no VALUE GEMS in the market which i can come up i go for 4 or 5 GEMS. not VALUE GEMS.
if u feel ur broker or the analyst is a extraodinary person then it is ok for going for it. but u need to wait untill market realise the real value of LOLC.

You may know wt should happen but no body knows when it will happen........

analyse fully then go for 100% or at least 60%.
if no analysis go for 10% each.

u kw there was a time period where i was with 100% GREG. but i felt no risk since it cannot go down below 60 and i got the correct tip from a extraodinary person with proven results.

You should have ur own strategy and u should kw the risk tolerance. my risk tolerance and the confident on my analysis are very high.

thank you..........

24LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: 100% Sun Feb 13, 2011 4:36 pm

Antonym


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
There is no problem with putting all your eggs in one basket - but ensure that the basket is damn good.

I am a short-term trader. I have more than half of my portfolio value in 1 'safe' share (which I identified as best for me); that makes it easier to keep track of price movements and react to them.

Warnings:
1. This is a high-risk strategy and I would not recommend it to any newcomer.
2. Never 'get married' to a share. After it has served your purpose, dump it. Or if it does not meet your expectations, dump it and move on... There are many fish in the sea (or shares on the CSE).

25LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sun Feb 13, 2011 5:07 pm

Monster


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Antonym wrote:
2. Never 'get married' to a share. After it has served your purpose, dump it. Or if it does not meet your expectations, dump it and move on... There are many fish in the sea (or shares on the CSE).
I really like your comment. Laughing

26LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sun Feb 13, 2011 7:26 pm

ashlee


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
thaNX MILLIONS guys.. I guess all your comments cover the aspect of portfolio diversification..
@Tubal, If you are talking about adviser`s comment regarding LOLC moving to 250 in the medium run, he would have been drunk..BUT if its about selling CARS and making my portfolio 100% LOLC, then it was me who was drunk Crying or Very sad ..

I did not do any calculations on LOLC personally. But I have got the news from an expert who gives me correct information all the time(so far), I believe it would go up. Just wanted to know what you guys think about it.. With strong past performance and future strategies (specially the hotel sector), I think LOLC would do better.. I saw fairly large quantities being traded on Thursday and Friday..So there is a demand for that. Lets hope LOLC would have its run soon..

27LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sun Feb 13, 2011 9:07 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Good luck with LOLC.. lets hope it runs soon.. If my analysis would be correct this has to break the silence within this week though I cant stress it out with higher confidence.. I've seen a lot of bull factors for a run last few weeks around 138.. I might be right or wrong, after all this is CSE.. ;-)

28LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sun Feb 13, 2011 9:28 pm

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:Good luck with LOLC.. lets hope it runs soon.. If my analysis would be correct this has to break the silence within this week though I cant stress it out with higher confidence.. I've seen a lot of bull factors for a run last few weeks around 138.. I might be right or wrong, after all this is CSE.. ;-)

dude, not now. i'm looking at ASI chart.
RSI 86.25
MFI 72.10

this has 2 options. either 7800 ASI or 7385 ASI. seem bulls may control first half of the week and bears may took over the control from bulls. if BFI cannot initiate its movement before end of feb, it will postpone to April. this is my view only.

for your early reply,

yes, you should have to good stomach to put all eggs on one basket rather having a head. i think every investor should taste bit of risk in stock market upon their capacity. it is trilling! isn't it?

29LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Mon Feb 14, 2011 10:59 am

shaankh

shaankh
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
it is not undervalued
see this
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LOLC:SL

30LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Mon Feb 14, 2011 5:05 pm

dhamm


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@shaankh wrote:it is not undervalued
see this
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LOLC:SL

Would you be able to interpret more ?

31LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Mon Feb 14, 2011 9:55 pm

shaankh

shaankh
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Earnings3.876
Price/Earnings (Trailing)35.372
Relative P/E1.508
PER of >18 is overvalued
RPE of >1 indicate risk investment since the companey is unlikely to achive significant performance in earnings.

32LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Mon Feb 14, 2011 10:14 pm

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@shaankh wrote:
Earnings3.876
Price/Earnings (Trailing)35.372
Relative P/E1.508
PER of >18 is overvalued
RPE of >1 indicate risk investment since the companey is unlikely to achive significant performance in earnings.

bloomberg dosn't provide actual figures. most of the time, this is not updated. better to check with their annual, quarter reports.

33LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty LOLC - Interim report released Tue Feb 15, 2011 6:23 pm

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/378_1297767464560.pdf

EPS 1.51

34LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Tue Feb 15, 2011 6:34 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
hmm...

good results. so they should be able to make around 8 for the year.

35LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:49 pm

Berryfund


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@mono wrote:hmm...

good results. so they should be able to make around 8 for the year.

I believe that current share price is fair. I would say that it is not undervalued.

36LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:55 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Lets have a quick recap...

Huge increase in profits.. which brought three months EPS of 1.51, Nine months EPS of 6.82.

If we assume the yearly EPS as 8 * 20.90 (BFI PER) = 167.2.. so at the current price this is undervalued.

Going thru their report, I found the following positive facts;
* They've reduced Real estate stocks this year and entered Timber and rubber stocks.
* Gained a substantial amt on Investment properties and increased their interest in investment of
associated companies.
* Increase of deposits from customers. Increased Reserves & Retained Earnings.

Some negatives as I see it;
* Bank overdrafts increased
* Insurance & Leisure segments have not performed well but others had..

These entities were among the top 20 share holder list;
Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation - Life Fund
Perpetual Asset Management (Pvt) Limited
Employees Provident Fund
Employees Trust Fund Board
Bank of Ceylon - No 2 A/C

We can see that state entities have some interest in LOLC too..

Up to u to decide Smile

37LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:16 pm

ashlee


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Is there any scope for LOLC to go pass 167 in the medium run?? Maybe to touch 200??

38LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Tue Feb 15, 2011 9:12 pm

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I deeply value the evaluation of smallvillie..Thanks.

following is general Q-Q revenue growth analysis;

Variable ----------------- As at 30.06.10--As at 30.09.10---As at 31.12.10

Financial Services -------1,494 Mn ----3,626Mn----------5,533Mn
[b]Plantation ----------------- 193 Mn------1,359 Mn--------1,766Mn
[b]Trading ----------------- --113 Mn--------372 Mn-----------585Mn
Leisure -------------------------7 Mn--------( 114) Mn---------(32Mn)
Power & Energy ----------------12 Mn-------8.535 Mn----------43Mn
Others -----------------------(716) Mn------(758)Mn-----------(758Mn)
Insurance -------------------- (0.8)Mn------(4.049) Mn--------(2.7Mn)

Total ------------------1,150 Mn-----4,529 Mn----------7,134Mn


I would like to add some more points;

1. Consider the GP in financial services. A healthy level of 65%. This is an extremely good when compared to other institutes in the financial sector and LOLC ability to borrow at low cost. Also their strategies to market Low cost funds effectively. They have an effective product mix to cater the bottom of the pyramid as well as Cream of the market which is represented through results. Financial Services growth rate almost 53% when compared to last quarter.

2. During recent past we have observed a mega price hike in Plantation products which will have a highly positive contribution in coming quarters towards Plantation Revenue of LOLC .(Pussallawa Plantation and Gal Oya will contribute in large numbers to the Top line in coming Quarters)

3. Although the Leisure sector indicates a loss it will be streamlined with the recent developments in the Tourism industry. Yield will be generated in last 2-3 quarters in 2011. It may be the refurbishment cost of of their hotels.It is important to consider the decrease in Q-Q Loss in the sector. With improved tourism we can expect them to become the Gold mine in LOLC.

4.Also as we expect an increase Revenue in Power & Energy sector as well due to the need and emphasis made by the Government on Hydro Power energy.

5.The trading arm is silently showing up some impressive results Q-Q.(Growth of 57%)

6. However Insurance and other sector continues to run at loss.

7. LOLC is a highly geared organisation.That is why their bank borrowings has been increased.But I think even they borrow at high cost their investment mix is fundamentally strong being an emergent diversified company.

8. Also the minority interest eats a greater portion of profits of LOLC it is important to identify the true value of profits generated even though it is not distributed among shareholders.

9 Also as you have correctly noted they have made a new investment on Timer and Rubber stock.(Rs 2,996Mn)It is interesting identify at what price they have purchased?When they are going to dispose it?However considering the current market price of Rubber it is a wise decision.

We must buy and sell shares based on a reason.Following crowd is really dangerous.We have witness it in last couple of days with CARS,CINV,GURD.


Gud Luck



Last edited by ONTHEMONEY on Tue Feb 15, 2011 9:20 pm; edited 1 time in total

39LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Tue Feb 15, 2011 9:15 pm

monash

monash
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:Lets have a quick recap...

Huge increase in profits.. which brought three months EPS of 1.51, Nine months EPS of 6.82.

If we assume the yearly EPS as 8 * 20.90 (BFI PER) = 167.2.. so at the current price this is undervalued.

Going thru their report, I found the following positive facts;
* They've reduced Real estate stocks this year and entered Timber and rubber stocks.
* Gained a substantial amt on Investment properties and increased their interest in investment of
associated companies.
* Increase of deposits from customers. Increased Reserves & Retained Earnings.

Some negatives as I see it;
* Bank overdrafts increased
* Insurance & Leisure segments have not performed well but others had..

These entities were among the top 20 share holder list;
Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation - Life Fund
Perpetual Asset Management (Pvt) Limited
Employees Provident Fund
Employees Trust Fund Board
Bank of Ceylon - No 2 A/C

We can see that state entities have some interest in LOLC too..

Up to u to decide Smile

Agreed with smallville.. But i don't see investing in leisure sector a weakness. The earnings of leisure sector will reflect on next Q reports with the increase of foreigners and booming tourism in this year.

when looking at LOLC it's better to analyze on forward P/E. Because of their leisure projects.
LOLC is surely undervalued @ current price on fundamentals and future potential..

40LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Tue Feb 15, 2011 10:39 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
OntheMoney.. Nice analysis.. I gave u a + for that nice interpretation Cool

YEs Investing in leisure sector is not a weakness.. Only thing it takes time for a ROI...
And a highly potential company like LOLC would find a way to convert their weaknesses to oppertunities..;-)

My valuation was under the impression that LOLC was BFI sector entity, but if we put it in DIV sector and calculate;

Ann. EPS as 8 * 35.5 (DIV PER) = 284. is the expected value...
Even at abt 30% discount to DIV sector PE the price arrives at arund 198.. sO at the current price this is very much undervalued.

I think the guy who converted 100% LOLC is gonna be a real winner now..

Cool Wink study

41LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Wed Feb 16, 2011 3:47 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:OntheMoney.. Nice analysis.. I gave u a + for that nice interpretation Cool

YEs Investing in leisure sector is not a weakness.. Only thing it takes time for a ROI...
And a highly potential company like LOLC would find a way to convert their weaknesses to oppertunities..;-)

My valuation was under the impression that LOLC was BFI sector entity, but if we put it in DIV sector and calculate;

Ann. EPS as 8 * 35.5 (DIV PER) = 284. is the expected value...
Even at abt 30% discount to DIV sector PE the price arrives at arund 198.. sO at the current price this is very much undervalued.

I think the guy who converted 100% LOLC is gonna be a real winner now..

Cool Wink study

I read all your guys comments. Nice presenting of facts. In my opinion LOLC cannot be treated as in BFI sector. Yes DIV section is appropriate as their ventures are diversified now. Their core business is attractive. Some other ventures have not fired yet but they will eventually and this counter will be more attractive in medium to long term.

For short term am not sure how much it will shoot up but given nature of CSE it can.

This is a conglomorate to eye for the future for sure.

http://www.mtiworldwide.com/index.php/news-and-events/item/211-lolc-turnaround-case-study-%E2%80%93-mti-commended

42LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:48 am

ashlee


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

I think the guy who converted 100% LOLC is gonna be a real winner now..

Cool Wink study [/quote]

Itz me Very Happy Cool

43LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:22 am

ashlee


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
ok guys one other thing I need to ask you all.. We have been talking about the Banking Rally for the last month..IF LOLC does not fall under BFI sector, will LOLC have a positive impact if the Banking Rally happens at any point??

44LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:26 am

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ashlee wrote:ok guys one other thing I need to ask you all.. We have been talking about the Banking Rally for the last month..IF LOLC does not fall under BFI sector, will LOLC have a positive impact if the Banking Rally happens at any point??

isn't LOLC in BFI. It's diversified but that doesn't mean it isn't BFI

45LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:03 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Right or wrong, I’m not afraid to express my opinion even which goes against the all others or majority.

See quarterly performance of LOLC (After adjusting for split)
Q1 --> 1.528
Q2 --> 3.779
Q3 --> 1.51 (Latest)

Tell me who can see a growth here?

The EPS for 9 months is 6.82, if this is annualized EPS is 9.09.

Current sector PE 21 is . Which is tailing PE ratio not leading. It can be easily understood if you have basic mathematical knowledge, when economy is expected to grow, tailing PE is greater that leading PE (as EPS is expected to grow). Thus BFI’s leading PE should be less than tailing PE ratio.

If we take the conservative figure 15, then the LOLC price would be 15*9.09=136.4.
However considering current market situation, and the fact that investors expected LOLC EPS to grow than what is reported here, I expect the downward pressure for LOLC would be severe on Friday.

Thus I expect LOLC to go down at least by Rs 2 to 4 on Friday.


An opinion can be right or wrong. Anyway we will see by Friday evening.

Thus is not an investment advice or recommendation



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