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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » What is the reason for this downturn?

What is the reason for this downturn?

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1What is the reason for this downturn?  Empty What is the reason for this downturn? Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:32 am

ashoka1966

ashoka1966
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
After a laps of terrible 3-4 months time , finally we got 3-4 green days.
Again it started bloody red days.
When do we find the green days?????
Actually I am fed up with this market now.
Lot of manipulation, fake rallies….and jump and dump by HNVI….
People found fault with CSE for some regulations. But got to know credit clearance is relaxed.
Is the credit clearance still there ?
What is the reason for this downturn?
Appreciate your views.

sirimevan

sirimevan
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
today is t+5 collect much as you can,

ashoka1966

ashoka1966
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Why..????
How does t+5 fall on today.???
Cannot t+5 be any of the day in the week calculating 5 days from the share purchased day?
Please explain.

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
In my view, market is sill too expensive. The uptrend we noticed from beginning of August is a fake. So a market drop now will help to prevent a total collapse in near future. My estimate is ASI around 6000~6200 will be a healthy level. Anything above that is unsustainable at this stage.
The truth may not be always sweet.
(And I expected someone to give -ve reps here)



Last edited by hunter on Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:03 pm; edited 2 times in total

investor.sl

investor.sl
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
affraid

avatar


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
a bad sentiment overhangs the CSE due to manipulation, changing rules etc..
why would people want to invest in CSE when there are much better propects elsewhere.
only the traders are jumpng in and losing money... that is those who are new and inexperienced..

invest-abc


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Guys, don't forget the recently published quarterly accounts...most companies reported lower earnings compared to the same period last year.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@hunter wrote:In my view, market is sill too expensive. The uptrend we noticed from beginning of August is a fake. So a market drop now will help to prevent a total collapse in near future. My estimate is ASI around 6000~6200 will be a healthy level. Anything above that is unsustainable at this stage.
The truth may not be always sweet.
(And I expected someone to give -ve reps here)

Yes, overall market PE can be still higher, as there or some sectors and some companies with trading with very high PE as much 100. Some shares are overvalued. Some shares are undervalued. Also there could be exceptional reasons why certain shres trade at a premium while other with very low PE stagnate . It is upto us to find the difference and p ick shares if one is interested in INVESTING for future.

To me this market has good opportunities for good capital gain for the patient and also Hand Grenades which could blow up in you face anytime.

Let us be wise in situations like this.

RockStock


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@hunter wrote:In my view, market is sill too expensive. The uptrend we noticed from beginning of August is a fake. So a market drop now will help to prevent a total collapse in near future. My estimate is ASI around 6000~6200 will be a healthy level. Anything above that is unsustainable at this stage.
The truth may not be always sweet.
(And I expected someone to give -ve reps here)

Now CSE P/E ratio closer to 14, Do you think it should go further down? (Except few craps trading at reiduculous P/E ratios)



Last edited by RockStock on Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:45 pm; edited 1 time in total

10What is the reason for this downturn?  Empty Re: What is the reason for this downturn? Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:44 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
slstock, thanks for completing the statement I intended to make.
When 'bad' shares go down they pull down 'good' shares as well.
The good part of a market drop is that we can look for buying good shares at better prices. So we should expect ahead a hunting time for smart investors.

11What is the reason for this downturn?  Empty Re: What is the reason for this downturn? Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:53 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@hunter wrote:In my view, market is sill too expensive. The uptrend we noticed from beginning of August is a fake. So a market drop now will help to prevent a total collapse in near future. My estimate is ASI around 6000~6200 will be a healthy level. Anything above that is unsustainable at this stage.
The truth may not be always sweet.
(And I expected someone to give -ve reps here)
ya. I think you are right. During last drop I was expecting around 5800. But market warm-up before that. let c

hairai


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
With the announcement of credit relaxation which came on the 16th August, lots of people would have purchased shares on credit. T+5 settlement for them is today. This may be the reason for the market to come down.

Further, I hope market to move up tomorrow since those who purchase tomorrow has to clear on the 1st of Sep.

pushpakumara


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
My opinion is credit issue is still haunting and not resolved 100%.

ashoka1966

ashoka1966
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
hairai said ;[With the announcement of credit relaxation which came on the 16th August, lots of people would have purchased shares on credit. T+5 settlement for them is today. This may be the reason for the market to come down.

Further, I hope market to move up tomorrow since those who purchase tomorrow has to clear on the 1st of Sep.]

Thank you hairai.I got it.

suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Rock stock, How did you get the PE at 14 please let me know. As I understand still the market PE is close to 20's

RockStock


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@suja wrote:Rock stock, How did you get the PE at 14 please let me know. As I understand still the market PE is close to 20's

Refer the following article by NDB Stock Brokers, The last sentence of the article
http://www.lbr.lk/fullstory.php?nid=20110822143020740

According to CSE daily and weekly report, It's P/E is around 20, It's wrong, They takes ages to update it, sometimes based on earnings of 2009

suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hey I think this is wrong as hotels and leisure sector is operating at appx 35PE only Renuka city and Amaya lake is below 15PE please check I maybe wrong, hence I feel that their estimate of 14 PE for the market is also incorrect. These are extremely important indicators I dont know why these guys can not get it right.

Genting


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
is T+5 is still there?
With the recent directive, brokers can give credit beyond T+3, provided it meets some criteria. I think T+5 force selling is not there anymore.

FatWolf

FatWolf
Stock Trader
I thinks its a general cycle.

The time for the wise to collect
The not so wise to dump at a lost and curse the market, sec and their moms

I think its a healthy cyclic drop on profit taking...

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@FatWolf wrote:I thinks its a general cycle.

The time for the wise to collect
The not so wise to dump at a lost and curse the market, sec and their moms

I think its a healthy cyclic drop on profit taking...


what profit do you say?
didnt you buy TAFL and GRAN at 140-150 assuming it will go till 175-200..
what happens to them?

I am having massive losses from so called fundies.

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