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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Disaster is around the corner

Disaster is around the corner

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1Disaster is around the corner Empty Disaster is around the corner Mon Feb 21, 2011 12:37 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
If this trend continues, huge drop in the market and disaster is inevitable

Yes, commentators... you may not see any signs & simptoms..

Lots of illiquide stocks are pushed without rasons. Those who reported best earnings ( can reasobnably assumed will do so in the future as well) are down while those reparted loss of earnings, loss of market share and manupulated numbers are going up without rerasons.....

Majority of portfolio those who invest in sould stocks are loosing daily while speculative counter ( basically no value) are being pushed ... sign if speculative bubble!

Unless things turned at least during this week..... I have no faith!



Last edited by salt on Mon Feb 21, 2011 1:33 pm; edited 1 time in total

2Disaster is around the corner Empty Re: Disaster is around the corner Mon Feb 21, 2011 1:02 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@salt wrote:If this trend continues, huge drop in the market and disaster is inevitable

Well we still have not seen any signs of a major drop. It okay to watch out and be careful.

Last friday it went up a bit. Today coming down a bit. too early to predict. It sideway market right now. Some shares up some down. If you notice, carefully there is a minor correction happening . Some overvalued shares are getting corrected while some are going up with results.

I might correct or incorrect but just food for thought:

Some of the bank shares are just above price levels in november when market was very low. Example DFCC, Seyb , even NTB , MBSL, NDB is not too far off. Heavy weights SPEN, JKH also the same even after decent results and heavy crossings. With the incoming good results from Bank and Fin these shares have potential for upward trend. Most blue chips ( most banks included) in MPI are still stagnant. They have not gone up compared many other sectors even after good resutls. The likely hood of them going up a bit is more than the probablity of them coming down drastically with an overall correction. Just my thought. But this is CSE. Better to keep watching.

There is not need to panic right now.

3Disaster is around the corner Empty Re: Disaster is around the corner Mon Feb 21, 2011 1:19 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
i don't think we going to have a big drop,whenever prices drop retailers buying......it swings...............

4Disaster is around the corner Empty Re: Disaster is around the corner Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:04 pm

micky

micky
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@mark wrote:i don't think we going to have a big drop,whenever prices drop retailers buying......it swings...............

your reply sounds like we going to have a small drop,

if drop what are the reasons? i like to know

thanx.

5Disaster is around the corner Empty Re: Disaster is around the corner Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:22 pm

monash

monash
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
We can't make an assumption of disaster, when market just down only for 1 day.. i think tomorrow market will recover.. If banks release results within this week. There is a high chance market would be green. But market would be bearish due to credit clearance.

Anyway this is the period to buy only fundamentally strong stocks. If you have solid shares you don't have to worry.. Even if market drops it will recover soon..

6Disaster is around the corner Empty Re: Disaster is around the corner Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:01 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
@micky wrote:
@mark wrote:i don't think we going to have a big drop,whenever prices drop retailers buying......it swings...............

your reply sounds like we going to have a small drop,

if drop what are the reasons? i like to know

thanx.


-credit clearance
-technical correction..............but not sure,it's all depending on how the people looking at the market...

7Disaster is around the corner Empty Re: Disaster is around the corner Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:11 pm

StocksWatch


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
[quote="salt"]If this trend continues, huge drop in the market and disaster is inevitable[quote]

What is the trend that you are talking about? I see the market is randomly up and down for last few days and apart from that I see no big issue. There is some technical correction happening for sure. But how this can cause a disaster? Please explain.

8Disaster is around the corner Empty Re: Disaster is around the corner Mon Feb 21, 2011 6:03 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
[quote="StocksWatch"][quote="salt"]If this trend continues, huge drop in the market and disaster is inevitable


What is the trend that you are talking about? I see the market is randomly up and down for last few days and apart from that I see no big issue. There is some technical correction happening for sure. But how this can cause a disaster? Please explain.
Lots of illiquide stocks are pushed without rasons. Those who reported best earnings ( can reasobnably assumed will do so in the future as well) are down while those reparted loss of earnings, loss of market share and manupulated numbers are going up without rerasons.....

Majority of portfolio those who invest in sould stocks are loosing daily while speculative counter ( basically no value) are being pushed ... sign if speculative bubble!

Unless things turned at least during this week..... I have no faith!.

9Disaster is around the corner Empty Re: Disaster is around the corner Mon Feb 21, 2011 8:51 pm

Rocky

Rocky
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
This is the last quarter and all CFO's are bracing themselves for the final sprint.
Remember, CFO's have bag of tricks to impress the Board of Directors or CEO/Chairman.

The usual tricks are:

- Quarter with Higest sales
- Quarter with least Fixed OH
- All recurring expenses are pushed forward to next quarter as much as possible
- Inventory valuation methods (If not calculated on stable accounting systems)
- Accruals and provisions thoroughly scrutinized to avoid over loading
- Assets and liabilities in prim and proper shape
- Debt collections pushed , streaching of creditors payments,
- Relaxing of credit facilities to get the extra sales
- And other quick fixes depending on industry

So you can expect the best results this quarter. Those companies that have the year ending Dec just only advance the process by three months.

Wait till end March and buy dirt cheap. Keep cash until then.



10Disaster is around the corner Empty Re: Disaster is around the corner Mon Feb 21, 2011 9:25 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
hybrid_OS wrote:
Wait till end March and buy dirt cheap. Keep cash until then.

see the thing is everyone seems to think late march is the time to buy. I think it'll be mid-late April for a number of reasons. The firstly the majority is always wrong. secondly, avurudu is a time to divest and there is some evidence for this in the historical trend of the ASI. And most importantly, because i demand that the ASI don't go anywhere while i'm on vacation. And i usually manage to get my way. Twisted Evil

11Disaster is around the corner Empty Re: Disaster is around the corner Mon Feb 21, 2011 9:33 pm

Rocky

Rocky
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
[/quote]

And most importantly, because i demand that the ASI don't go anywhere while i'm on vacation. And i usually manage to get my way. Twisted Evil [/quote]

With yr charisma and/or power over the natural forces of CSE you could hold things together.

12Disaster is around the corner Empty Re: Disaster is around the corner Mon Feb 21, 2011 9:42 pm

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@monash wrote:We can't make an assumption of disaster, when market just down only for 1 day.. i think tomorrow market will recover.. If banks release results within this week. There is a high chance market would be green. But market would be bearish due to credit clearance.

Anyway this is the period to buy only fundamentally strong stocks. If you have solid shares you don't have to worry.. Even if market drops it will recover soon..

Those who sold banking sector shares will have to worry. HNB has gone up today. Market is changing , looking for strong stocks

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