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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Untold SECRETS of the stock market: How to turn losses into profits

Untold SECRETS of the stock market: How to turn losses into profits

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Roboticfx


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Oh! What a nice article! That's very great and very useful! Keep doing it alone!
Hunter,
God Bless to you! Happy trading! cheers



I would like to ask a question to solve a doubt. Rolling Eyes

If a company which we have invested and have sold those shares with a loss, get huge looses continuously in all periods, is it better to keep away from it even there is a trend to move the share price up? I saw bankrupt company shares moved very down immediately when they published their financial statements. Eg:-Alufab Smile

arrowms


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
hmmmmm, so far everythings clear,, keep going sir

jonny


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@hunter wrote:This is supposed to be a sequel to the earlier thread I started,
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t9305p25-3-secret-steps-for-guaranteed-profits-for-traders#66282

First of all, I am still a learner in the market so pls question whatever put down here. That will help either to clear my point or it will help all of us to learn something new.

I have read quite a few articles/books about how to make profits in the stock market, have observed how some of the successful investors/traders had earned fortunes, have tried many ways myself as well. I have put lot of efforts to find out, if ever existed, a 'common factor' behind all successful strategies: also tried to understand the stock market in different ways; using economics, accounting, human behavior, psychology etc etc.

Finally, a little of my mathematical background gave me a 'perfect' way to model the stock market. One by one, the puzzles I had were solving: finally the ball of thread was untangled.

So this is an effort to show you how I understand what the stock market is all about.


Before, introducing my model, I would like to start with one of my observations.

My observation:
A stock (share, counter) usually moves in a cycle: sometimes goes up, sometimes down and sometimes sideways (no move). And, we can see that it moves up approximately 30% of the time; Moves down 30% of the time and moves sideways 40% of the time.
(Agreed ?)
OK.
Now let's see some investor invests randomly in a share (stock, counter).
What are his/her winning chances?
According to my observation, only 30% of the time he will see his share moves up; 70% of the time it will not move up.
Accordingly, if we try to trade RANDOMLY, we will loose more than 70% of the time.

Then we need to find what are the methods we can deploy to increasing our winning chances. And if possible try to understand how and why these 'methods' work.

That is the objective of this thread.

Kindly tell me if the above makes any sense to you.

To be contd....

....Getting intrested and nervous to know the full detail.Thanks hunter you are making the hunting ground more favourble to us.thanks again..

hunter


Moderator
Moderator
Friends, thanks again for your encouraging comments on this thread.
Roboticfx, I find it difficult to express my view regarding your doubt at this stage, but at the end of this thread, my approach will be crystal clear to you I am sure.

Let's look at the model I mentioned earlier to help understanding the stock market. (This is my own idea, there could still be room for improvements; your views are more than welcome)

OK, here is the model;

In its very concise form:

'Stock Market is nothing but a function of four variables: shares, prices, volumes and time'

If I am to say the same as a mathematical expression, it will be something like:

M=f(s,p,v,t) ; where

M - Market (stock market)
s - shares (stocks, counters)
v - share volumes
t - time

(You might say that I am just bragging here or showing off my mathematical know-how: well I do not mind because it could be partially true, ha ha haa)

Not all of us here are mathematicians or scientists, so let's try to grasp my idea slowly.

What I mean by a variable is something changes, something capable of taking different values. For example, if we watch the price of a share, it changes, it takes different values. So it is a variable.

Got it?

What I mean by a function is, those variables are related to each other, one variable will vary when another variable changes. In other words, these variables are not independent, instead they are inter-dependent.

Do I make sense here?

OK

So the stock market means a combination of four variables (or parameters).

Accordingly, when you deal with the stock market, (or more precisely, dealing with stock market means) you have to manage the above four variables (or parameters).
Say, you want to buy (or sell) some shares. Then you have decide (or manage) which share (counter) to buy, when to buy, at which price and what is the volume (or quantity).

Do you have any other (primary) questions when dealing with the Market?
(Well, you might be thinking if you could make profits or if your investment would get washed off etc. Buy I would say those type of questions are more related to you emotions rather than the Market itself).

All right;

If u are with me so far, let's see how we can mange those four variables to our advantage.

Please note that (let alone four variables) handling even a single variable effectively is quite a task. To make matters a little more complicated, those variables are linked to each other as well (entangled with each other).

Therefore, let's take one parameter (variable) at one time; and see how we can manage (bend) it to increase our chances of winning this game.

I will take the easier one first: the time.


To be contd..........

Roboticfx


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I got it completely SIR! Very Happy Hope more things! Very Happy

(Really, you are good teacher. MAGE NAMASKARAYA! Smile )

kavi84


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Sir, Great work. cheers
Thank you

tanzanite

tanzanite
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
thanks again hunter dear.

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
Thanks for nice feedback comments friends. Please keep on doing so. It help s deliver my message better.

I thought of starting a new thread to continue our discussion. Please visit the new thread.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t9979-one-secret-revealed-bending-time-to-earn-money#67075

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks hunter.
Sharing very good points.

rmark

rmark
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Dear Hunter, thanks for the very good article, keep it up!!!

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
How to turn losses into profits!

Senior Citizen

Senior Citizen
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:How to turn losses into profits!

50% - Buy JKH, Go Fishing and come one year later for the capital gains.(Sure bet) 
Day Trading with balance portfolio.
This keeps you updated on the CSE and keeps your mental faculties in working order.

Gamunu


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
where are these kinds of forum contributors now ? Damn i learnt a lot , but one thing i know is realizations one comes to by self thought and understanding are the only Form of learning that is palpable.

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