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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR

POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR

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41POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 7:55 am

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@K.Haputantri wrote:The Minister's crusade to thwart rampant corruption in the CEB and check wastage have met with resistance from the all powerfull CEB engineer's union. Now mhe want even talk about it.

It will be a futile exercise putting huge sums of public money into this abyss. If a bank is preasurised to grant loans to the CEB, system collapse is inevitable or else the Govt. will be compelled to rescue them.

If CEB engineers sitting on high posts in the CEB cannot come out of this mess & turn-around they should resign forthwith. ?What right these engineers have to occupy high seats of management & distroy a public institution so important to the economy.

It is high time that the restructuring plan is expedited before committing billions of public funds to this mess. If this Govt. cannot do this with all its strength, no other Govt. will be able to do it. Don't miss this opportunity Hon. Champika.

Agreed. Time all the responsible people pull of their socks up to put country before self and come up with a solid plan to rescue CEB to escape curses of so many who love the country still. The average persons specially do not have to pay for the follies of the management their entrusted to do their job. If they can't time to go home.

42POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 9:38 am

Redbulls


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t21316-sri-lankas-debt-ridden-power-utility-seeks-more-loans

43POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 9:51 am

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@Redbulls wrote:http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t21316-sri-lankas-debt-ridden-power-utility-seeks-more-loans

Thanks for your concern but this one need not be merged as they are in different sections and discussion has started .

44POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 9:58 am

sriranga


Co-Admin
Topics Merged.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

45POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:01 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Hapu: Did you read the article fully? Look at the reasons (for the crisis) the minister has outlined. Do you think CEB engineers are the ones responsible for the drought??? scratch

IMO there has always been a serious problem in SL power generation sector (a shortage), we are too dependent on hydro power. I actually thought the Coal power plantation might help resolve this issue up to some degree, but that plantation is not working. What we may want to do is punish those idiots (engineers and authorities alike) who have completely failed the project.... what a waste of money.

I wonder what other power sources we can turn to:

- Solar power: Government can provide a subsidy for installing solar panels and related equipment in households and thereby limit national grid access. This is done in UK where it rains / is cloudy the whole damn year (but they are a rich country). But we have a lot of sunlight.... may be the government should seriously look into this as a long term plan.

- Nuclear power: OK, we can't produce it, but is it not possible to buy power from India? (they have a couple of Nuclear plants right?)

- Anything else?

Cheers!

46POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:05 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@anubis wrote:@Hapu: Did you read the article fully? Look at the reasons (for the crisis) the minister has outlined. Do you think CEB engineers are the ones responsible for the drought??? scratch

IMO there has always been a serious problem in SL power generation sector (a shortage), we are too dependent on hydro power. I actually thought the Coal power plantation might help resolve this issue up to some degree, but that plantation is not working. What we may want to do is punish those idiots (engineers and authorities alike) who have completely failed the project.... what a waste of money.

I wonder what other power sources we can turn to:

- Solar power: Government can provide a subsidy for installing solar panels and related equipment in households and thereby limit national grid access. This is done in UK where it rains / is cloudy the whole damn year (but they are a rich country). But we have a lot of sunlight.... may be the government should seriously look into this as a long term plan.

- Nuclear power: OK, we can't produce it, but is it not possible to buy power from India? (they have a couple of Nuclear plants right?)

- Anything else?

Cheers!

Have not done a feasibilty study but
importing nuclear power
solar power ( this is a good option to promote in a country like SL)
Wind power
tidal power

are some other things to note

47POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:07 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Yup, wind power is also another good option for a country like SL. But as you said, not sure of it's feasibility / scalability.

Cheers!

48POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 4:20 pm

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@anubis wrote:
- Solar power: Government can provide a subsidy for installing solar panels and related equipment in households and thereby limit national grid access. This is done in UK where it rains / is cloudy the whole damn year (but they are a rich country). But we have a lot of sunlight.... may be the government should seriously look into this as a long term plan.
Cheers!

Solar power is a good option. I am not sure how much it would cost initially for the installation. It would be costly, which cannot be afford to install in every households. If I am not mistaken, there is an option to sell to the national grid when you produce more electricity than your need.
http://www.solartherm.lk/#!/page_pv2

49POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 4:24 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Monster: Indeed, I heard that more than the panel itself, the battery to store electricity (excess produced during daytime is backed into the battery to be used at night) is more expensive. In UK (as I heard from a friend), they only install the panel initially and feed the excess back into the national grid (since there is no battery) and households get paid for that!!!

Cheers!

50POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 5:11 pm

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
Anubis, yes one of the reasons for the present crisis is drought. Hence, they should address that issue with available facilities. Almost all reservours are heavily silted due to bad agricultural practices in the catchment area. Their water retaining capacity has been reduced over the years and during the rainy season water is sent down the river due to reduced capacity of the reservours. The remedy would be to increase the water storage capacity with constant maitenance of the reservours. I dont think any of these reservours have been de-silted after their construction. This is a simple solution to store water wasted during the rainy season.

Likewise, there are hosts of other remedies outside the areas of an electrical engineer that could improve the power generation. The issue here is they are unable to think out of the box as such remedies were not taught to them in the university.

Apart from that very few undertake research in this very important area. As you are aware new knowledge & new inventions are required to improve the efficient usage of this scarce resource but none is interested on that aspect.

Grid connected home solar power units are operating successfully in USA. Though they introduced this in SL too they are not prepared to pay if usage is lesser than the amount added to the grid. The excess generated has to be given to them free. ?What a foolish decision - they really want to discourage people to invest. As a result there is no incentive for a household to invest due to this adamant stance of the CEB management.

They have developped a liking for foreign funded projects where perks are available and tenders can be flouted.

In addition, they grab administrative duties where decision making on planning admin & monitory matters are involved thus making the entire institution an inefficient loss making white elephant.

Moreover, they have been the stumbling block that slow down the new minor hydraw power generating projects over the years. Many projects mooted by private parties have not been granted approval citing various issues.

They resisted restructuring plan by the Government as they know that they cannot play this game after the restructure. These are just a few that comes to my mind.

51POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 5:26 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Hapu: You have highlighted some good points. It's not impossible that some of the responsible engineers have lost their ethics. However, I think it's a mix of bad governance and loss of engineering ethics. Overtime the system may have clogged down... as aj pointed out sometime back (but his views were too extremist).

Cheers!

52POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:23 pm

Whitebull


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Better to create a method to use sea water to produce electricity as sea ?never gets affected by drought or silting or polution but there are obstacles to overcome.

53POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:34 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@Whitebull wrote:Better to create a method to use sea water to produce electricity as sea ?never gets affected by drought or silting or polution but there are obstacles to overcome.
Yes that is a viable idea.
See the below link
http://www.ee.cityu.edu.hk/~rtbrad/wave%20gen.pdf

54POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:37 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I believe we all ae saying the same . I also did mention Tidal Power above.


@Redbulls wrote:
@Whitebull wrote:Better to create a method to use sea water to produce electricity as sea ?never gets affected by drought or silting or polution but there are obstacles to overcome.
Yes that is a viable idea.
See the below link
http://www.ee.cityu.edu.hk/~rtbrad/wave%20gen.pdf

55POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:59 pm

Whitebull


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Redbulls wrote:
@Whitebull wrote:Better to create a method to use sea water to produce electricity as sea ?never gets affected by drought or silting or polution but there are obstacles to overcome.
Yes that is a viable idea.
See the below link

Seems to be worthwhile to read.Thanks for sharing.

56POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 7:04 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
May be this also a viable way: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_plant

Notice that there's no need to distribute solar panels to individual house holds (these panels are different - just reflectors I think). I hope at least some of these alternatives will be studied further for the benefit of the country.

Cheers!

57POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 7:45 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
At the same time we should concentrate on measures of efficienct energy usage and distribution. I think CEB is using a very obsolete technologies in their Grids and power distribution leads to significant loss of generated energy. I think members from engineering field would know more about this.

I also think now its time to ban filament bulb production , instead use CFL and the more efficient LED lamps. A USA pilot study showed up to 80% reduction in energy cost when LED lamps use for street lights. As far as I know street lamps use now in Sri Lanka are very energy inefficient.

New building and commercial officers should be designed in a way to maximize usage of day light to reduce energy costs.

58POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Hydro Power study II Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:05 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Hydropower sector is thriving at the moment due to known reasons and we expect the wet climate will continue for next few quarters.

Latest results are impressive as expected.

To determine where we should go from this point I did some study and I do like to publish the summery here .
I think this will save your time , anyone who is interested do not have to go through all the data again and again to process the given information.


We have 2 monsoons and 2 inter monsoon periods
POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Monsoo10



POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Annual%20rainfall%20in%20sl
Total Annual rainfall

If you want to look at the rainfall distribution in 4 seasons, you can go to
http://www.meteo.gov.lk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=106&Itemid=81&lang=en


Then we see where they have installed the hydropower stations.
I prepared the location maps for 4 listed companies, VPEL, VLL, HPFL and PAP.
Marker Red - in operation, Blue - under construction.

POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Vpel_s10
VPEL power stations

POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Vll_st10
Vidul lanka Staions

POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Hpfl_s10
HPFL statons

POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Pap_st10
Pan Asia Powerstations. Note: Padiyapelella II (3.0Mw) and ratganga II ( 1MW) are at preliminary stages, not shown in the map.

By looking at the locations , rainfall patterns and future developments I roughly valued the companies in the following manner.


Location wise:

VPEL > VLL > PAP> HPFL

Future capacity developments ( construction currently ongoing)

HPFL> VLL > PAP > VPEL

Increase of EPS for next few seasons ( latest taken as the base)

HPFL > VLL > PAP > VPEL


please note :
above ideas are not derived after extensive calculations .
I invested in PAP and HPFL .
After this latest study I feel loving VLL also. need further study based on reports (AVPS, Debts, EPS , management etc .)

Thank you.



Last edited by Chinwi on Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:08 am; edited 2 times in total

59POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:22 am

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Well , thank you for your valuable insight.
If you have any idea about plant factor of power plants individually or collectively ( group), pl give us your opinion.

i am skeptical large plants ( above 3-4 Mw) should not be efficient as small plants , however their capital productivity should be much better.

60POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:35 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@salt wrote:Well , thank you for your valuable insight.
If you have any idea about plant factor of power plants  individually or collectively ( group), pl give us your opinion.

i am skeptical  large plants ( above 3-4 Mw) should not be efficient as small plants , however their capital productivity should be much better.
I think we can get rough idea about plant factors by looking at seasonal rainfall. I glimpsed through  4 seasons rainfall intensities from met.dept. site , I did not put the maps here. (link given )
My Location Wise selection is based on that idea.

I may try to find out exact figures taken for PIR s.

VPEL has selected the best places. VPEL's 4.65Mw Kiriwandeniya is at the down stream or Maskeli Oya reservoir. It gets the runoff water from Lakshapana , added benefit to get continuous water supply .

Stations located in NE side of Nuwaraeliya may get lower rainfall during yala season (SW monsoon)



Last edited by Chinwi on Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:43 am; edited 1 time in total

61POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:49 am

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
Thanks. Continue the Good work Chinvi.

62POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:55 am

piyalpy


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks for your article. This is my thought for this.

Now our country is generating nearly full capacity from hydro power.
This is yesterday figures:
Total Energy Required : 26.68398 GWh
Thermal 4.73718 GWh 17.8%
 Hydro 20.59989 GWh 77.2%
 Wind 1.34691 GWh 5.05%

So, the data is very impressive for last 6 months. Government is saving billion of rupees. Otherwise we can imaging how much will be our diesel bill.
Anyway, we now have to face new realities. That is we are going to commission another 300MW form Norocholayi. It will total up to 600MW by December. If the rain continues we will have power generation surplus and we may have to shut down either one power generation method partially. Most probable it will be the small hydro power projects. Sad . This is just a my thought based on facts I read.

63POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:58 am

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
Shutting down of Hydro plants is a crime from a national point of view. Even though mini-hydro plants are privately owned they save foreign exchange and CEB owned thermal plants eat into our foreign exchange reserves. If they are really national minded they should shut down thermal plants first.

64POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 12:42 pm

cseguide

cseguide
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@piyalpy wrote:Thanks for your article. This is my thought for this.

Now our country is generating nearly full capacity from hydro power.
This is yesterday figures:
Total Energy Required : 26.68398 GWh
Thermal 4.73718 GWh 17.8%
 Hydro 20.59989 GWh 77.2%
 Wind 1.34691 GWh 5.05%

So, the data is very impressive for last 6 months. Government is saving billion of rupees. Otherwise we can imaging how much will be our diesel bill.
Anyway, we now have to face new realities. That is we are going to commission another 300MW form Norocholayi. It will total up to 600MW by December. If the rain continues we will have power generation surplus and we may have to shut down either one power generation method partially. Most probable it will be the small hydro power projects. Sad . This is just a my thought based on facts I read.
shutting down of small hydro power stations will not happen in future. because every year power requirement will increase 8-10%.

65POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:47 pm

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks CHINWI for the info.
I have small quantities of 4 hydro power cos.
But worried about the recent outbursts by some politicos that the Hydro power private cos are charging high and that they want to renegotiate the contracts?

66POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:36 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
No fear of shutting down hydropower .
Diesel and Coal need Dollars.
Hydropower is local currency.

Politicos are shouting about the high rates of diesel power . Not about water power.

---

By the way, Lowest net metering has come down below Rs. 500,000 now. ( 150 Unit system)

67POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:49 pm

NUINTH


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Thx Chinwi, as usual great post/ideas.

I'm believing most of power/energy sector companies have greate future. Now electricity & gas become a people's basic needs. More demand.

If they managed their operations well, it will save huge money for country.

68POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:52 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Thanks for the good work and your valuable time

69POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:14 pm

lakymahesh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Chinwi wrote:



Future capacity developments ( construction currently ongoing)

HPFL> VLL > PAP > VPEL

Increase of EPS for next few seasons ( latest taken as the base)

HPFL > VLL > PAP > VPEL


please note :
above ideas are not derived after extensive calculations .
I invested in PAP and HPFL .
After this latest study I feel loving VLL also. need further study based on reports (AVPS, Debts, EPS , management etc .)

Thank you.
what abt HPWR.N ?
 Like a Star @ heaven Good dividend
 Like a Star @ heaven Resonable Price
 Like a Star @ heaven  Has abt 30% shares of PAP .. . .
Is their any reason that this is not to be a good share ?

70POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:27 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@lakymahesh wrote:what abt HPWR.N ?
...
Is their any reason that this is not to be a good share ?
I omitted it due to its non-hydro exposure, not because of any bad or good  .
Mainly, I wanted to find out the locations of  hydropower stations.

BTW,  PAP , a part of their hydro arm is included.

They (HPWR) are still vulnerable to diesel price fluctuations. They recorded good profit due to their hydropower sector.

Thermal revenue 1,295,000,000
Thermal cost      1,285,000,000
Thermal    profit     10,000,000

Hydro revenue       171,341,000
Hydro cost              50,000,000
Hydro Profit           121,207,000

Furthermore , I do not like to think about their 2 billion worth thermal plants (over 70% of their assets) and 1.4 billion remaining loan because, it is very difficult to predict the future of our thermal power sector.



Last edited by Chinwi on Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:04 am; edited 1 time in total

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