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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR

POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR

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51POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 5:26 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Hapu: You have highlighted some good points. It's not impossible that some of the responsible engineers have lost their ethics. However, I think it's a mix of bad governance and loss of engineering ethics. Overtime the system may have clogged down... as aj pointed out sometime back (but his views were too extremist).

Cheers!

52POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:23 pm

Whitebull


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Better to create a method to use sea water to produce electricity as sea ?never gets affected by drought or silting or polution but there are obstacles to overcome.

53POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:34 pm

Redbulls


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@Whitebull wrote:Better to create a method to use sea water to produce electricity as sea ?never gets affected by drought or silting or polution but there are obstacles to overcome.
Yes that is a viable idea.
See the below link
http://www.ee.cityu.edu.hk/~rtbrad/wave%20gen.pdf

54POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:37 pm

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I believe we all ae saying the same . I also did mention Tidal Power above.


@Redbulls wrote:
@Whitebull wrote:Better to create a method to use sea water to produce electricity as sea ?never gets affected by drought or silting or polution but there are obstacles to overcome.
Yes that is a viable idea.
See the below link
http://www.ee.cityu.edu.hk/~rtbrad/wave%20gen.pdf

55POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:59 pm

Whitebull


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Redbulls wrote:
@Whitebull wrote:Better to create a method to use sea water to produce electricity as sea ?never gets affected by drought or silting or polution but there are obstacles to overcome.
Yes that is a viable idea.
See the below link

Seems to be worthwhile to read.Thanks for sharing.

56POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 7:04 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
May be this also a viable way: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_plant

Notice that there's no need to distribute solar panels to individual house holds (these panels are different - just reflectors I think). I hope at least some of these alternatives will be studied further for the benefit of the country.

Cheers!

57POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Mon Aug 13, 2012 7:45 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
At the same time we should concentrate on measures of efficienct energy usage and distribution. I think CEB is using a very obsolete technologies in their Grids and power distribution leads to significant loss of generated energy. I think members from engineering field would know more about this.

I also think now its time to ban filament bulb production , instead use CFL and the more efficient LED lamps. A USA pilot study showed up to 80% reduction in energy cost when LED lamps use for street lights. As far as I know street lamps use now in Sri Lanka are very energy inefficient.

New building and commercial officers should be designed in a way to maximize usage of day light to reduce energy costs.

58POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Hydro Power study II Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:05 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Hydropower sector is thriving at the moment due to known reasons and we expect the wet climate will continue for next few quarters.

Latest results are impressive as expected.

To determine where we should go from this point I did some study and I do like to publish the summery here .
I think this will save your time , anyone who is interested do not have to go through all the data again and again to process the given information.


We have 2 monsoons and 2 inter monsoon periods
POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Monsoo10



POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Annual%20rainfall%20in%20sl
Total Annual rainfall

If you want to look at the rainfall distribution in 4 seasons, you can go to
http://www.meteo.gov.lk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=106&Itemid=81&lang=en


Then we see where they have installed the hydropower stations.
I prepared the location maps for 4 listed companies, VPEL, VLL, HPFL and PAP.
Marker Red - in operation, Blue - under construction.

POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Vpel_s10
VPEL power stations

POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Vll_st10
Vidul lanka Staions

POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Hpfl_s10
HPFL statons

POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Pap_st10
Pan Asia Powerstations. Note: Padiyapelella II (3.0Mw) and ratganga II ( 1MW) are at preliminary stages, not shown in the map.

By looking at the locations , rainfall patterns and future developments I roughly valued the companies in the following manner.


Location wise:

VPEL > VLL > PAP> HPFL

Future capacity developments ( construction currently ongoing)

HPFL> VLL > PAP > VPEL

Increase of EPS for next few seasons ( latest taken as the base)

HPFL > VLL > PAP > VPEL


please note :
above ideas are not derived after extensive calculations .
I invested in PAP and HPFL .
After this latest study I feel loving VLL also. need further study based on reports (AVPS, Debts, EPS , management etc .)

Thank you.



Last edited by Chinwi on Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:08 am; edited 2 times in total

59POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:22 am

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Well , thank you for your valuable insight.
If you have any idea about plant factor of power plants individually or collectively ( group), pl give us your opinion.

i am skeptical large plants ( above 3-4 Mw) should not be efficient as small plants , however their capital productivity should be much better.

60POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:35 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@salt wrote:Well , thank you for your valuable insight.
If you have any idea about plant factor of power plants  individually or collectively ( group), pl give us your opinion.

i am skeptical  large plants ( above 3-4 Mw) should not be efficient as small plants , however their capital productivity should be much better.
I think we can get rough idea about plant factors by looking at seasonal rainfall. I glimpsed through  4 seasons rainfall intensities from met.dept. site , I did not put the maps here. (link given )
My Location Wise selection is based on that idea.

I may try to find out exact figures taken for PIR s.

VPEL has selected the best places. VPEL's 4.65Mw Kiriwandeniya is at the down stream or Maskeli Oya reservoir. It gets the runoff water from Lakshapana , added benefit to get continuous water supply .

Stations located in NE side of Nuwaraeliya may get lower rainfall during yala season (SW monsoon)



Last edited by Chinwi on Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:43 am; edited 1 time in total

61POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:49 am

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
Thanks. Continue the Good work Chinvi.

62POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:55 am

piyalpy


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks for your article. This is my thought for this.

Now our country is generating nearly full capacity from hydro power.
This is yesterday figures:
Total Energy Required : 26.68398 GWh
Thermal 4.73718 GWh 17.8%
 Hydro 20.59989 GWh 77.2%
 Wind 1.34691 GWh 5.05%

So, the data is very impressive for last 6 months. Government is saving billion of rupees. Otherwise we can imaging how much will be our diesel bill.
Anyway, we now have to face new realities. That is we are going to commission another 300MW form Norocholayi. It will total up to 600MW by December. If the rain continues we will have power generation surplus and we may have to shut down either one power generation method partially. Most probable it will be the small hydro power projects. Sad . This is just a my thought based on facts I read.

63POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:58 am

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
Shutting down of Hydro plants is a crime from a national point of view. Even though mini-hydro plants are privately owned they save foreign exchange and CEB owned thermal plants eat into our foreign exchange reserves. If they are really national minded they should shut down thermal plants first.

64POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 12:42 pm

cseguide

cseguide
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@piyalpy wrote:Thanks for your article. This is my thought for this.

Now our country is generating nearly full capacity from hydro power.
This is yesterday figures:
Total Energy Required : 26.68398 GWh
Thermal 4.73718 GWh 17.8%
 Hydro 20.59989 GWh 77.2%
 Wind 1.34691 GWh 5.05%

So, the data is very impressive for last 6 months. Government is saving billion of rupees. Otherwise we can imaging how much will be our diesel bill.
Anyway, we now have to face new realities. That is we are going to commission another 300MW form Norocholayi. It will total up to 600MW by December. If the rain continues we will have power generation surplus and we may have to shut down either one power generation method partially. Most probable it will be the small hydro power projects. Sad . This is just a my thought based on facts I read.
shutting down of small hydro power stations will not happen in future. because every year power requirement will increase 8-10%.

65POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:47 pm

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks CHINWI for the info.
I have small quantities of 4 hydro power cos.
But worried about the recent outbursts by some politicos that the Hydro power private cos are charging high and that they want to renegotiate the contracts?

66POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:36 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
No fear of shutting down hydropower .
Diesel and Coal need Dollars.
Hydropower is local currency.

Politicos are shouting about the high rates of diesel power . Not about water power.

---

By the way, Lowest net metering has come down below Rs. 500,000 now. ( 150 Unit system)

67POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:49 pm

NUINTH


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Thx Chinwi, as usual great post/ideas.

I'm believing most of power/energy sector companies have greate future. Now electricity & gas become a people's basic needs. More demand.

If they managed their operations well, it will save huge money for country.

68POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:52 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Thanks for the good work and your valuable time

69POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:14 pm

lakymahesh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Chinwi wrote:



Future capacity developments ( construction currently ongoing)

HPFL> VLL > PAP > VPEL

Increase of EPS for next few seasons ( latest taken as the base)

HPFL > VLL > PAP > VPEL


please note :
above ideas are not derived after extensive calculations .
I invested in PAP and HPFL .
After this latest study I feel loving VLL also. need further study based on reports (AVPS, Debts, EPS , management etc .)

Thank you.
what abt HPWR.N ?
 Like a Star @ heaven Good dividend
 Like a Star @ heaven Resonable Price
 Like a Star @ heaven  Has abt 30% shares of PAP .. . .
Is their any reason that this is not to be a good share ?

70POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:27 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@lakymahesh wrote:what abt HPWR.N ?
...
Is their any reason that this is not to be a good share ?
I omitted it due to its non-hydro exposure, not because of any bad or good  .
Mainly, I wanted to find out the locations of  hydropower stations.

BTW,  PAP , a part of their hydro arm is included.

They (HPWR) are still vulnerable to diesel price fluctuations. They recorded good profit due to their hydropower sector.

Thermal revenue 1,295,000,000
Thermal cost      1,285,000,000
Thermal    profit     10,000,000

Hydro revenue       171,341,000
Hydro cost              50,000,000
Hydro Profit           121,207,000

Furthermore , I do not like to think about their 2 billion worth thermal plants (over 70% of their assets) and 1.4 billion remaining loan because, it is very difficult to predict the future of our thermal power sector.



Last edited by Chinwi on Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:04 am; edited 1 time in total

71POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:58 am

sandunj


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
@lakymahesh wrote:what abt HPWR.N ?
...
Is their any reason that this is not to be a good share ?
I omitted it due to its non-hydro exposure, not because of any bad or good  .
Mainly, I wanted to find out the locations of  hydropower stations.

BTW,  PAP , a part of their hydro arm is included.

They are still vulnerable to diesel price fluctuations. They recorded good profit due to their hydropower sector.

Thermal revenue 1,295,000,000
Thermal cost      1,285,000,000
Thermal    profit     10,000,000

Hydro revenue       171,341,000
Hydro cost              50,000,000
Hydro Profit           121,207,000

Furthermore , I do not like to think about their 2 billion worth thermal plants (over 70% of their assets) and 1.4 billion remaining loan because, it is very difficult to predict the future of our thermal power sector.
.

Ya agreed better to go with hydro power than HPWR. Appreciate your hard work its really usefull. Thanks

72POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:12 pm

prasadrmb

prasadrmb
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
good work

73POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:44 pm

lakymahesh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Chinwi wrote:
@lakymahesh wrote:what abt HPWR.N ?
...
Is their any reason that this is not to be a good share ?
I omitted it due to its non-hydro exposure, not because of any bad or good  .
Mainly, I wanted to find out the locations of  hydropower stations.

BTW,  PAP , a part of their hydro arm is included.

They (HPWR) are still vulnerable to diesel price fluctuations. They recorded good profit due to their hydropower sector.

Thermal revenue 1,295,000,000
Thermal cost      1,285,000,000
Thermal    profit     10,000,000

Hydro revenue       171,341,000
Hydro cost              50,000,000
Hydro Profit           121,207,000

Furthermore , I do not like to think about their 2 billion worth thermal plants (over 70% of their assets) and 1.4 billion remaining loan because, it is very difficult to predict the future of our thermal power sector.
thx. . . .  now only got to kwn they make most of it thru thermal . . .hydro
my bad . . .

74POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Sat Nov 02, 2013 5:01 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Still no real intrest in this sector? Am I in the wrong side?

75POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Sat Nov 02, 2013 6:44 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I think the market is waiting for reports.

I doubled my stake during last qtr. I bet with only one  XXXX.N

Still gathering , mostly in rainy days Smile.

76POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Sat Nov 02, 2013 8:30 pm

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Expecting more than 20% in short term from the share I have in this sector.Very Happy 

77POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Sat Nov 02, 2013 11:36 pm

kas

kas
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I'm collecting PAP in small quantities, this year is a good wet year and only two months to go,I'm expecting PAP to move towards Rs.3.00 with all this rain we had so far. They have only paid an interim dividend and hope there will be a good final dividend on the cards

78POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:40 am

UAEBOY

UAEBOY
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@dhanurrox wrote:Expecting more than 20% in short term  from the share I have in this sector.Very Happy 
@ Chinwi ...Wel done allrounder...Great work...

@ Dhanurrox...May be VPEL...Wink

79POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Sun Nov 03, 2013 6:56 am

m2_yapa

m2_yapa
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:I think the market is waiting for reports.

I doubled my stake during last qtr. I bet with only one  XXXX.N

Still gathering , mostly in rainy days Smile.
I also bought HPFL.N @ 4.50 to 5.00 already in profit but no idea to dispose near future but still i like collecting it below 5.00. it is a most valuable stock among those hydra power.
PAP.N also may give you .50 profit once this 2.50-2.60 disposing over. look like PAP is being controlled . But i am dam sure it will easily reach 3.00 with next earning report.

80POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR Sun Nov 03, 2013 7:50 am

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kas wrote:I'm collecting PAP in small quantities, this year is a good wet year and only two months to go,I'm expecting PAP to move towards Rs.3.00 with all this rain we had so far. They have only paid an interim dividend and hope there will be a good final dividend on the cards
Their dividend payment is as follows,

2010/2011 - .25 (Interim)
2011/2012 - .15 (Interim)
2012/2013 - .10 (Interim)

None of the above instances they have not paid the final dividend as we expected. PAP is a safe counter @ current levels. But they are confusing us with this interim word.

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