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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Power and Energy Sector

Power and Energy Sector

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61Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:49 am

K.Haputantri


Co-Admin
Thanks. Continue the Good work Chinvi.

62Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:55 am

piyalpy


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks for your article. This is my thought for this.

Now our country is generating nearly full capacity from hydro power.
This is yesterday figures:
Total Energy Required : 26.68398 GWh
Thermal 4.73718 GWh 17.8%
 Hydro 20.59989 GWh 77.2%
 Wind 1.34691 GWh 5.05%

So, the data is very impressive for last 6 months. Government is saving billion of rupees. Otherwise we can imaging how much will be our diesel bill.
Anyway, we now have to face new realities. That is we are going to commission another 300MW form Norocholayi. It will total up to 600MW by December. If the rain continues we will have power generation surplus and we may have to shut down either one power generation method partially. Most probable it will be the small hydro power projects. Sad . This is just a my thought based on facts I read.

63Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:58 am

K.Haputantri


Co-Admin
Shutting down of Hydro plants is a crime from a national point of view. Even though mini-hydro plants are privately owned they save foreign exchange and CEB owned thermal plants eat into our foreign exchange reserves. If they are really national minded they should shut down thermal plants first.

64Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Wed Aug 21, 2013 12:42 pm

cseguide


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@piyalpy wrote:Thanks for your article. This is my thought for this.

Now our country is generating nearly full capacity from hydro power.
This is yesterday figures:
Total Energy Required : 26.68398 GWh
Thermal 4.73718 GWh 17.8%
 Hydro 20.59989 GWh 77.2%
 Wind 1.34691 GWh 5.05%

So, the data is very impressive for last 6 months. Government is saving billion of rupees. Otherwise we can imaging how much will be our diesel bill.
Anyway, we now have to face new realities. That is we are going to commission another 300MW form Norocholayi. It will total up to 600MW by December. If the rain continues we will have power generation surplus and we may have to shut down either one power generation method partially. Most probable it will be the small hydro power projects. Sad . This is just a my thought based on facts I read.
shutting down of small hydro power stations will not happen in future. because every year power requirement will increase 8-10%.

65Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:47 pm

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks CHINWI for the info.
I have small quantities of 4 hydro power cos.
But worried about the recent outbursts by some politicos that the Hydro power private cos are charging high and that they want to renegotiate the contracts?

66Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:36 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
No fear of shutting down hydropower .
Diesel and Coal need Dollars.
Hydropower is local currency.

Politicos are shouting about the high rates of diesel power . Not about water power.

---

By the way, Lowest net metering has come down below Rs. 500,000 now. ( 150 Unit system)

67Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:49 pm

NUINTH


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Thx Chinwi, as usual great post/ideas.

I'm believing most of power/energy sector companies have greate future. Now electricity & gas become a people's basic needs. More demand.

If they managed their operations well, it will save huge money for country.

68Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:52 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Thanks for the good work and your valuable time

69Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:14 pm

lakymahesh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Chinwi wrote:



Future capacity developments ( construction currently ongoing)

HPFL> VLL > PAP > VPEL

Increase of EPS for next few seasons ( latest taken as the base)

HPFL > VLL > PAP > VPEL


please note :
above ideas are not derived after extensive calculations .
I invested in PAP and HPFL .
After this latest study I feel loving VLL also. need further study based on reports (AVPS, Debts, EPS , management etc .)

Thank you.
what abt HPWR.N ?
 Like a Star @ heaven Good dividend
 Like a Star @ heaven Resonable Price
 Like a Star @ heaven  Has abt 30% shares of PAP .. . .
Is their any reason that this is not to be a good share ?

70Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:27 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@lakymahesh wrote:what abt HPWR.N ?
...
Is their any reason that this is not to be a good share ?
I omitted it due to its non-hydro exposure, not because of any bad or good  .
Mainly, I wanted to find out the locations of  hydropower stations.

BTW,  PAP , a part of their hydro arm is included.

They (HPWR) are still vulnerable to diesel price fluctuations. They recorded good profit due to their hydropower sector.

Thermal revenue 1,295,000,000
Thermal cost      1,285,000,000
Thermal    profit     10,000,000

Hydro revenue       171,341,000
Hydro cost              50,000,000
Hydro Profit           121,207,000

Furthermore , I do not like to think about their 2 billion worth thermal plants (over 70% of their assets) and 1.4 billion remaining loan because, it is very difficult to predict the future of our thermal power sector.



Last edited by Chinwi on Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:04 am; edited 1 time in total

71Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:58 am

sandunj


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
@lakymahesh wrote:what abt HPWR.N ?
...
Is their any reason that this is not to be a good share ?
I omitted it due to its non-hydro exposure, not because of any bad or good  .
Mainly, I wanted to find out the locations of  hydropower stations.

BTW,  PAP , a part of their hydro arm is included.

They are still vulnerable to diesel price fluctuations. They recorded good profit due to their hydropower sector.

Thermal revenue 1,295,000,000
Thermal cost      1,285,000,000
Thermal    profit     10,000,000

Hydro revenue       171,341,000
Hydro cost              50,000,000
Hydro Profit           121,207,000

Furthermore , I do not like to think about their 2 billion worth thermal plants (over 70% of their assets) and 1.4 billion remaining loan because, it is very difficult to predict the future of our thermal power sector.
.

Ya agreed better to go with hydro power than HPWR. Appreciate your hard work its really usefull. Thanks

72Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:12 pm

prasadrmb

prasadrmb
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
good work

73Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:44 pm

lakymahesh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Chinwi wrote:
@lakymahesh wrote:what abt HPWR.N ?
...
Is their any reason that this is not to be a good share ?
I omitted it due to its non-hydro exposure, not because of any bad or good  .
Mainly, I wanted to find out the locations of  hydropower stations.

BTW,  PAP , a part of their hydro arm is included.

They (HPWR) are still vulnerable to diesel price fluctuations. They recorded good profit due to their hydropower sector.

Thermal revenue 1,295,000,000
Thermal cost      1,285,000,000
Thermal    profit     10,000,000

Hydro revenue       171,341,000
Hydro cost              50,000,000
Hydro Profit           121,207,000

Furthermore , I do not like to think about their 2 billion worth thermal plants (over 70% of their assets) and 1.4 billion remaining loan because, it is very difficult to predict the future of our thermal power sector.
thx. . . .  now only got to kwn they make most of it thru thermal . . .hydro
my bad . . .

74Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sat Nov 02, 2013 5:01 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Still no real intrest in this sector? Am I in the wrong side?

75Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sat Nov 02, 2013 6:44 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I think the market is waiting for reports.

I doubled my stake during last qtr. I bet with only one  XXXX.N

Still gathering , mostly in rainy days Smile.

76Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sat Nov 02, 2013 8:30 pm

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Expecting more than 20% in short term from the share I have in this sector.Very Happy 

77Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sat Nov 02, 2013 11:36 pm

kas

kas
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I'm collecting PAP in small quantities, this year is a good wet year and only two months to go,I'm expecting PAP to move towards Rs.3.00 with all this rain we had so far. They have only paid an interim dividend and hope there will be a good final dividend on the cards

78Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:40 am

UAEBOY

UAEBOY
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@dhanurrox wrote:Expecting more than 20% in short term  from the share I have in this sector.Very Happy 
@ Chinwi ...Wel done allrounder...Great work...

@ Dhanurrox...May be VPEL...Wink

79Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Nov 03, 2013 6:56 am

m2_yapa

m2_yapa
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:I think the market is waiting for reports.

I doubled my stake during last qtr. I bet with only one  XXXX.N

Still gathering , mostly in rainy days Smile.
I also bought HPFL.N @ 4.50 to 5.00 already in profit but no idea to dispose near future but still i like collecting it below 5.00. it is a most valuable stock among those hydra power.
PAP.N also may give you .50 profit once this 2.50-2.60 disposing over. look like PAP is being controlled . But i am dam sure it will easily reach 3.00 with next earning report.

80Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Nov 03, 2013 7:50 am

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kas wrote:I'm collecting PAP in small quantities, this year is a good wet year and only two months to go,I'm expecting PAP to move towards Rs.3.00 with all this rain we had so far. They have only paid an interim dividend and hope there will be a good final dividend on the cards
Their dividend payment is as follows,

2010/2011 - .25 (Interim)
2011/2012 - .15 (Interim)
2012/2013 - .10 (Interim)

None of the above instances they have not paid the final dividend as we expected. PAP is a safe counter @ current levels. But they are confusing us with this interim word.

81Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Nov 03, 2013 9:12 am

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Leon but this time there is higher possibility to have another dividend.

82Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Nov 03, 2013 9:57 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@m2_yapa wrote:I also bought HPFL.N @ 4.50 to 5.00 already in profit but no idea to dispose near future but still i like collecting it below 5.00. it is a most valuable stock among those hydra power.
A month ago it had a sudden movement to reach 6/- and someone bought a quantity.

Then last Thursday  , again moved to 5.80 from 5.40.

Over 90,000 cleared around 5.60 

As you said it's real value will come at least after 6 months . I buy it as a long term buffer stock.

83Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Nov 03, 2013 1:08 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
What is the current status of their two new power plants? It takes long time to complete the project than estimated. They have taken another 80 M loan to complete the project. If I am not mistaken, according to the last AR, they have put on hold the new Halagon Oya project till they get positive signs for the new tarrif structure from the gov.

84Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Nov 03, 2013 6:41 pm

m2_yapa

m2_yapa
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
@m2_yapa wrote:I also bought HPFL.N @ 4.50 to 5.00 already in profit but no idea to dispose near future but still i like collecting it below 5.00. it is a most valuable stock among those hydra power.
A month ago it had a sudden movement to reach 6/- and someone bought a quantity.

Then last Thursday  , again moved to 5.80 from 5.40.

Over 90,000 cleared around 5.60 

As you said it's real value will come at least after 6 months . I buy it as a long term buffer stock.
Ya thank you very much for the infor. If you seen at 4.50 very thin volume traded. there after from 5.30 to 5.80 some one/party collecting can observed. (I guess this will joint to the "wesak perehara" next year).

85Power and Energy Sector - Page 4 Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Nov 03, 2013 9:11 pm

kas

kas
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Leon wrote:
@kas wrote:I'm collecting PAP in small quantities, this year is a good wet year and only two months to go,I'm expecting PAP to move towards Rs.3.00 with all this rain we had so far. They have only paid an interim dividend and hope there will be a good final dividend on the cards
Their dividend payment is as follows,

2010/2011 - .25 (Interim)
2011/2012 - .15 (Interim)
2012/2013 - .10 (Interim)

None of the above instances they have not paid the final dividend as we expected. PAP is  a safe counter @ current levels. But they are confusing us with this interim word.
Agreed, but I feel this year is different being a very rainy year and they have the ability to match at  least last years dividend if not the profits have to be reinvested increasing the NAV of the share

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