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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » SEMB.x and SEMB.w16- whats the logic behind

SEMB.x and SEMB.w16- whats the logic behind

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mra

mra
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
hi guys

as of now order book 41m buy for semb.w16 and only 1.49 m buy for semb.x

when u see the arithmatic formula it should be otherway around. anyone can give a valid reason of traders thinking patten in this regard pls?

cse.profit

cse.profit
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
if you go through my analysis you will find a clue...
Their are two categories of people. Traders and Investors. so to answer your question 95% of the retail investors are not investors . They are traders who want a quick profit by trading for 10 cents. So warrant 16 will give you the highest return for a 10 cents incremental and this is what exactly the traders are looking at for... their is just 2/3 months for warrant conversation and before you jump first ask your self about you. whether you are a trader or investor or in the middle..and then take your decision. playing with the non voting warrant is very dangerous and i will list the top 11 shareholders.

1 Seylan Bank Plc -A/C No. 03 36,326,166
2Mr. R Gautam 17,297,080
3Mr. R Ganeshan 11,300,000
4Mr. SBM Padmasiri 10,000,000
5 Waldock Macknzie Ltd/ Mr. SA Gulamhusein 7,000,000
6Mr. TGW Mudiyanse 5,873,800
7Mr. EMP Ambanpola 5,500,000
8Mr. LD Wicramasinghe 5,000,000
9Mrs. HN Padmsiri 5,000,000
10Miss. NWABSMM Dayarathna 5,000,000
11 The Bishop of Galle 4,600,000

you never know at what time these people including the Bishop will dump the warrants to the retailers since they know the real value of the share...But though i know about the value of semb.x due to this trading mentality i will never enter none of them. semb warrant 15 is my pick.
do your homework before you do any buying or selling.

@smallville- very true...1.4 is not worth the price...it will be really hard to buy at 1.1. but 1.2/1.3 will give you solid profits based on the market momentum. semb fundamentally is not a sound company right now at the moment. but simple mathematics have bought me lot of profits through semb warrant 15.....don't buy at 1.4 if the voting stagnates at current prices.

@mra - friend go to the cse site and go to the semb profile and click financial tab. and their will be a sub heading key financial. you will get all the upto dated annual reports and quarterly reports. since you are not familiar i will upload the links of the latest 2 quarterly statement and you can do a comparison of change of shareholding within a quarter. These kind of small analysis might not get you profits.but once you get a profit you will be very happy that you have shed some hard work for that profit....all the best my friend.

June interim report
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/445_1313403159968.06.2011

march interim report
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/445_1305284968.pdf

@marusira- check what i have said in semb warrant 15 unseen analysis.... I also noted what you saw. but if the price stagnate it will oscillate between 1.3/1.4. always remember to follow the voting share price when you dealing with any semb shares.all the best

@watchdog- You have got my point brother...I dont know whether it is the dr or not..but in case if that is true in future i will be the happiest man not because of the profits i will get since he used my strategy for his decisions...hehehe..podi ahinsaka fun ekak....hehehe..... I mean any sensible person would do that.But i don't think that its dr...because if he does it for tomorrow as well as day after tomorrow and a significant shares were bought and sold then its Dr...because since the dr is supposed to report once he sell and buy and even though the selling comes bit later than the buying report if he sells and buys simultaneously he should report simultaneously . otherwise he will be named as a manipulator..so for a small quantity i don't think dr will reveal his strategy....if it prevails tomorrow also then their is something very fishy ...



Last edited by cse.profit on Tue Sep 13, 2011 7:39 pm; edited 5 times in total

mra

mra
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
cse.profit. tks. u hv given a very intelligent and practical approach.

mra

mra
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
c.se.profit...wud pls tell me from where to find information which provide about share holders stack?

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
One more thing.. SEMB.W15 is also a risky one if u enter now.. Cuz 1.40 is the base where most traders looking to dump this..
So if you wanna pick up, wait till it gets to 1.10 region at least..

SEMB's has not much of a fundamental value as of now.. so play safe..

This I understood thanks to Cse.profit Wink

marusira


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Today SEMB W15 traded 20m shares @ 1.30-1.40 but semb.n there was lots of selling @ 2.80 to 3.00 it seems some one blocking it.on the other hand collected w15 @ 1.40,so SEMB.N stagnated @ 2.60.any view cse.profit and my dear friends....

pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@marusira wrote:Today SEMB W15 traded 20m shares @ 1.30-1.40 but semb.n there was lots of selling @ 2.80 to 3.00 it seems some one blocking it.on the other hand collected w15 @ 1.40,so SEMB.N stagnated @ 2.60.any view cse.profit and my dear friends....
Yes you are right,seems like big Dr.is selling SEMB.N and collecting w15.[as mentioned earlier by cse.profit on his detailed explanation of SEMB family].once he acheived his target,He will let the whole family to run. (before december.)

marusira


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Dear cse profit if SEMB .N hit 3.00 what could be the price w15 @ the currant situation.....?

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