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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Advanced Search

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As you read the list below, think about how you can learn more about each secret and adapt it to your own most effective use.

Secret #1: Contrarianism takes courage.
Everyone knows the essential investment formula: “Buy low, sell high,” but it is so much easier said than done, it might as well be a secret formula.
The way to really make it work is to invest in an asset or commodity that people want and need but that for reasons of market cyclicality or other temporary factors, no one else is buying. When the vast majority thinks something necessary is a bad investment, you want to be a buyer—that’s what it means to be a contrarian.
Obviously, if this were easy, everyone would do it, and there would be no such thing as a contrarian opportunity. But it is very hard for most people to think independently enough to risk hard-won cash in ways others think is mistaken or too dangerous. Hence, fortune favors the bold.

Secret #2: Success takes discipline.
It’s not just a matter of courage, of course; you can bravely follow a path right off a cliff if you’re not careful. So you have to have a game plan for risk mitigation. You have to expect market volatility and turn it to your advantage. And you’ll need an exit strategy.
The ways a successful speculator needs discipline are endless, but the most critical of all is to employ smart buying and selling tactics, so you don’t get goaded into paying too much or spooked into selling for too little.

Secret #3: Analysis over emotion.
This may seem like an obvious corollary to the above, but it’s a point well worth stressing on its own. To be a successful speculator does not require being an emotionless robot, but it does require abiding by reason at times when either fear or euphoria tempt us to veer from our game plans.
When a substantial investment in a speculative pick tanks—for no company-specific reason—the sense of gut-wrenching fear is very real. Panic often causes investors to sell at the very time they should be backing up the truck for more.
Similarly, when a stock is on a tear and friends are congratulating you on what a genius you are, the temptation to remain fully exposed—or even take on more risk in a play that is no longer undervalued—can be irresistible. But to ignore the numbers because of how you feel is extremely risky and leads to realizing unnecessary losses and letting terrific gains slip through your fingers.

Secret #4: Trust your gut.
Trusting a gut feeling sounds contradictory to the above, but it’s really not. The point is not to put feelings over logic, but to listen to what your feelings tell you—particularly about company people you meet and their words in press releases.
“People” is the first of Doug Casey’s famous Eight Ps of Resource Stock Evaluation, and if a CEO comes across like a used-car salesman, that is telling you something. If a press release omits critical numbers or seems to be gilding the lily, that, too, tells you something.
The more experience you accumulate in whatever sector you focus on, the more acute your intuitive “radar” becomes: listen to it. There’s nothing more frustrating than to take a chance on a story that looked good on paper but that your gut was warning you about, and then the investment disappoints. Kicking yourself is bad for your knees.

Secret #5: Assume Bulshytt.
As a speculator, investor, or really anyone who buys anything, you have to assume that everyone in business has an angle. Their interests may coincide with your own, but you can’t assume that.
It’s vital to keep in mind whom you are speaking with and what their interest might be. This applies to even the most honest people in mining, which is such a difficult business, no mine would ever get built if company CEOs put out a press release every time they ran into a problem.
A mine, from exploration to production to reclamation, is a non stop flow of problems that need solving. But your brokers want to make commissions, your conference organizers want excitement, your bullion dealers want volume, etc. And, yes, your newsletter writers want to eat as well; ask yourself who pays them and whether their interests are aligned with yours or the companies they cover.
(Bulshytt is not a typo, but a reference to Neal Stephenson's brilliant novel, Anathem, which defines the term, briefly, as words, phrases, or even entire books or speeches that are misleading or empty of meaning.)

Secret #6: The trend is your friend.
No one can predict the future, but anyone who applies him- or herself diligently enough can identify trends in the world that will have predictable consequences and outcomes.
If you identify a trend that is real—or that at least has an overwhelming amount of evidence in its favor—it can serve as both compass and chart, keeping you on course regardless of market chaos, irrational investors, and the ever-present flood of bulshytt.
Knowing that you are betting on a trend that makes great sense and is backed by hard data also helps maintain your courage. Remember; prices may fluctuate, but price and value are not the same thing. If you are right about the trend, it will be your friend. Also, remember that it’s easier to be right about the direction of a trend than its timing.

Secret #7: Only speculate with money you can afford to lose.
This is a logical corollary to the above. If you bet the farm or gamble away your children’s college tuition on risky speculations—and only relatively risky investments have the potential to generate the extraordinary returns that justify speculating in the first place—it will be almost impossible to maintain your cool and discipline when you need it.
As Doug likes to say; it’s better to risk 10% of your capital shooting for 100% gains than to risk 100% of your capital shooting for 10% gains.

Secret #8: Stack the odds in your favour.
Given the risks inherent in speculating for extraordinary gains, you have to stack the odds in your favor. If you can’t, don’t play.
There are several ways to do this, including betting on People with proven track records, buying when market corrections put companies on sale way below any objective valuation, and participating in private placements. The most critical may be to either conduct the due diligence most investors are too busy to be bothered with, or find someone you can trust to do it for you.

Secret #9: You can’t kiss all the girls.
This is one of Doug’s favourite sayings, and though seemingly obvious, it’s one of the main pitfalls for unwary speculators.
When you encounter a fantastic story or a stock going vertical and it feels like it’s getting away from you, it can be very, very difficult to do all the things I mention above. I can tell you from firsthand experience, it’s agonizing to identify a good bet, arrive too late, and see the ship sail off to great fortune—without you.

But if you let that push you into paying too much for your speculative picks, you can wipe out your own gains, even if you’re betting on the right trends.
You can’t kiss all the girls, and it only leads to trouble if you try. Fortunately, the universe of possible speculations is so vast, it simply doesn't matter if someone else beats you to any particular one; there will always be another to ask for the next dance. Bide your time, and make your move only when all of the above is on your side.

Extracted article from http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/doug-caseys-9-secrets-for-successful-speculation-1
Search in: FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™  Topic: Doug Casey’s 9 Secrets for Successful Speculation  Replies: 0  Views: 321
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/consumer-staples-etf-rhs-hits-new-52-week-high-cm620520

For investors looking for momentum, Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Staples ETF ( RHS ) is probably on radar now. The fund just hit a 52-week high, which is up roughly 79.4% from its 52-week low price of $69.51/share. But could more gains be ahead for this ETF? Let's take a quick look at the fund and the near term outlook to get a better idea on where it might be headed: 


RHS in Focus 

RHS focuses on the consumer staples segment of the U.S. market. The fund has a large cap focus with key holdings in the food and drug retailing, beverages, food products, tobacco, household products and personal products segments. RHS charges investors 40 basis points a year in fees and has top holdings in Constellation Brands, Mead Johnson Nutrition and Kraft Heinz.

Why the move? 

The consumer staples sector has been an area to watch lately as markets are volatile in the wake of some downbeat corporate results which led investors to bet big on defensive sectors like consumer staples. Plus, greater spending power in the wake of improving wage growth is helpingTopics tagged under 3 on FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ C:\Users\LAXANA\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image002  the consumer segment. 

More Gains Ahead? 

Currently, RHS has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) so it is hard to get a handle on its future returns one way or the other. However, RHS has positive weighted alpha of 16.30 . A positive weighted alpha hints at more gains. So, it looks like there is still some promise for those who want to ride this surging ETF a little further.
Search in: DAILY CHRONICLE™  Topic: Consumer Staples ETF (RHS) Hits New 52 Week High  Replies: 0  Views: 880
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/top-6-consumer-staples-stocks-for-the-q4-earnings-season-cm573772
 
Top 6 Consumer Staples Stocks For the Q4 Earnings Season

The Way to Pick the Right Stocks 

Obviously, there are quite a few companies in the consumer staples space, so it may be difficult to pick the right stock for your portfolio. One way to narrow down the list of choices is by looking at stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) - and a positive Earnings ESP . 

Earnings ESP is our proprietary methodology to determine which stocks have the best chance to surprise in their next earnings announcement. It shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Our research shows that for stocks with this combination, the chance of positive earnings surprise is as high as 70%. 

Here are six consumer staple stocks currently equipped with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat: 

6 Prominent Choices 

Dean Foods Company ( 

DF
 ), which processes and distributes milk, and other dairy and dairy case products in the United States. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +5.88%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at 34 cents a share. The Dallas, TX-based company delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 17.03% over the trailing four quarters and has a long-term earnings growth rate of 10.5%. The company is slated to report results on Feb 9. 

B&G Foods, Inc. ( 

BGS
 ), which makes and markets packed and easy-to-store food and household products. The stock holds a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +6.52%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at 46 cents a share. 
This Parsippany, NJ-based company registered an average positive earnings surprise of 6.72% over the trailing four quarters, and has a long-term earnings growth rate of 12.97%. The company is expected to report results on Feb 17. 

Tyson Foods, Inc. ( 

TSN
 ), the world's largest fully-integrated producer, processor and marketer of 
chicken and poultry-based food products. Based in Springdale, AR, Tyson Foods carries a Zacks Rank #2 and has an Earnings ESP of +1.15%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter of fiscal 2016 (ending December) stands at 87 cents a share. The stock has a long-term earnings growth rate of 11.00%. The company is expected to report results on Feb 5. 

Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc . ( 

DPS
 ) can also be an attractive stock for investors. This beverage company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +2.06%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at 97 cents a share. The stock has a long-term earnings growth rate of 7.74%. The company is expected to report results on Feb 11. 

PepsiCo Inc. ( 

PEP
 ), this Purchase, NY-based company registered an average positive earnings surprise of 5.81% over the trailing four quarters. Currently, it has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.94%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at $1.06 a share. The stock has a long-term earnings growth rate of 6.90%. The company is expected to report results on Feb 11. 

Treehouse Foods, Inc. ( 

THS
 ), a food manufacturer, which holds a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +2.97%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at $1.01 per share. 
This Oak Brook, IL-based company has a long-term earnings growth rate of 6.33%. The company is expected to report results on Feb 11. 

Bottom Line 


We believe that investing in these companies, which have an earnings beat potential, should yield strong returns for your portfolio in the short term.




Search in: FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™  Topic: The bet against chicken producers amid stock rise  Replies: 3  Views: 1394

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