Technical Journal Book of NC

Glas Analysis; (28/10/2014)

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Successful completion of HPP pattern and seems end of its 3rd leg. After the pattern completion we sold, now its time to look again for its 5th leg on EW.
It did 38.2% Fib retracement. ( The classical Ret: of 4th leg.)
Targets for the 5th leg is given.
T1: 4.9 - 5 ; Double top (should be with careful at this level)
T2: 5.3 -5.4
T3: 6
Generally we can look for return above 20%. With a minimum risk (5%) of STP @ 4.4/-(Weekly S1.)
Bcz Weekly PP @ 4.5. And Yesterday has closed above the Weekly pivot is a good bullish sign.
Further, in fundamentally, the reduction of electricity prices for industries and fuel prices could hope some more profits on Glas in future..

Kapi:
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Small HPP can see in daily Kapi chart. Its 1st target is almost completed. Though its small, its potential to make a new HH to 60. Even with its right issue the counter has become attractive, and having a good buying pressure.
Fundamentally, strong and undervalued share. Thus with the 2015 budget construction companies are favored and large scale of constructions're proposed.

NC wrote:Kapi:
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Small HPP can see in daily Kapi chart. Its 1st target is almost completed. Though its small, its potential to make a new HH to 60. Even with its right issue the counter has become attractive, and having a good buying pressure.
Fundamentally, strong and undervalued share. Thus with the 2015 budget construction companies are favored and large scale of constructions're proposed.

NC

KAPI is one of my favorite stocks & i expect a major uptrend in it. So thank you for preparing a chart to conform the accuracy of judgment again.

Namu Analysis:
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Namu is a fundamentally strong and undervalued company. Accroding to 2 years of history reading, seems its moving in a channel, as showed in the chart. A small double bottom could be identified and could ba taken as a good support and a STP.
Further, Namu is popular for its diversified crops. Mainly on Oil Palms. Continuous highest earnings even other palntation recroded lower earnings.
Thus, its attractive to investors on its higher dividends. The, con is its somewhat illquid.

if goes back to 84 lovely, then should hit 100

Thanks NC. Now we have really good team in SLEF.!

SHARK aka TAH wrote:if goes back to 84 lovely, then should hit 100

Totally Addicted to HPP..

Risk Management 1: Deciding entry points and Stoplosses

Buying stocks is simple, as simple as buying a one kilo of sugar from a shop. But deciding a entry point is not so simple. When, deciding (positions) entry point of stocks, its always risk engaged process. Hence, it should be rationally evaluated with your strategy. So, the following questions need to ask from yourself prior to jump in.
- what's the stop loss (STP)?
- How much is the risk?
- What's the target?
- How much is the risk-reward ratio?

Don't loose your money
For example if you had Rs.1000/- account. And if you loss 10%, your balance is Rs.900/-. So, lets assume next time you got a profit of 10% from Rs. 900/-. But it doesn't recover your Rs.1000/-, the total you get is Rs.990/-. Rs. 10 loss still there comparatively with the initial investment. In order to recover your Rs. 1000/- you need a profit of 11.12% not 10%. So, don't loose your money. So, it need to keep a tight STP is cut your losses.

Deciding entry points and STPs.
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Above is a graph with derived by mathematical calculations.
For example a person decided to buy stock at Rs. 2.2. So, the risk as above shown in the graph relates with rate of change. The rate of change relates with your total portfolio. ( Consider the 1st example, with the profit gains.)
As shown in the chart;
1. Is the highest rate of change (RF), amount risk up to 5%. This is shown as the Minimal and the Best risk level for one to take. So, its highly recommended.
2. The next level of RF, amount risk 5% to 20%. This also could be accepted. And taken as optimal up to 10%.
3. Lower RF. Risk vary from 20% - 50%. Poor risk management. Is not recommended.
4. Lowest RF. Risk above 50%. Very poor risk management, is not recommended.

Deciding Targets:
Deciding targets, mostly go with the technical analysis. But I'm not saying fundamentally its not possible. Targets should not be too small, not too high, should be achievable in decided time frame, especially evaluating risk reward ratios.

Deciding Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):

At least you RRR should be 2 or above 2. (Refer the 1st example). Normally my minimum RRR is 4. Means if I risk 1 rupee, I'm looking a gain of 4 rupee. But don't misunderstand it didn't mean that i'm looking for 400% gain. No its not. The percentage I risk. (20% gain and 5% risk, RRR is 4)
RRR = (Your target price - Your entry price)/ Amount you risk

So, in conclusion,
Be patience till you find a less risk level to enter. Don't blindly jump in without rationally evaluated. Targets should be evaluated carefully.  
- Risk up to 5% is the best risk level to enter.
- Risk of 5% -10% can be taken as a optimal risk.
- Above 20% risk is not recommended.
- RRR should be at least 2.

- GL
NC


Hope to come with, another article of "Deciding Optimal Profit Taking". And some teachnical readings of Tjl, Colo, Csd coming soon...
~ Cut your losses and let run your profits ~

NC wrote:Risk Management 1: Deciding entry points and Stoplosses

Buying stocks is simple, as simple as buying a one kilo of sugar from a shop. But deciding a entry point is not so simple. When, deciding (positions) entry point of stocks, its always risk engaged process. Hence, it should be rationally evaluated with your strategy. So, the following questions need to ask from yourself prior to jump in.
- what's the stop loss (STP)?
- How much is the risk?
- What's the target?
- How much is the risk-reward ratio?

Don't loose your money
For example if you had Rs.1000/- account. And if you loss 10%, your balance is Rs.900/-. So, lets assume next time you got a profit of 10% from Rs. 900/-. But it doesn't recover your Rs.1000/-, the total you get is Rs.990/-. Rs. 10 loss still there comparatively with the initial investment. In order to recover your Rs. 1000/- you need a profit of 11.12% not 10%. So, don't loose your money. So, it need to keep a tight STP is cut your losses.

Deciding entry points and STPs.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Above is a graph with derived by mathematical calculations.
For example a person decided to buy stock at Rs. 2.2. So, the risk as above shown in the graph relates with rate of change. The rate of change relates with your total portfolio. ( Consider the 1st example, with the profit gains.)
As shown in the chart;
1. Is the highest rate of change (RF), amount risk up to 5%. This is shown as the Minimal and the Best risk level for one to take. So, its highly recommended.
2. The next level of RF, amount risk 5% to 20%. This also could be accepted. And taken as optimal up to 10%.
3. Lower RF. Risk vary from 20% - 50%. Poor risk management. Is not recommended.
4. Lowest RF. Risk above 50%. Very poor risk management, is not recommended.

Deciding Targets:
Deciding targets, mostly go with the technical analysis. But I'm not saying fundamentally its not possible. Targets should not be too small, not too high, should be achievable in decided time frame, especially evaluating risk reward ratios.

Deciding Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):

At least you RRR should be 2 or above 2. (Refer the 1st example). Normally my minimum RRR is 4. Means if I risk 1 rupee, I'm looking a gain of 4 rupee. But don't misunderstand it didn't mean that i'm looking for 400% gain. No its not. The percentage I risk. (20% gain and 5% risk, RRR is 4)
RRR = (Your target price - Your entry price)/ Amount you risk

So, in conclusion,
Be patience till you find a less risk level to enter. Don't blindly jump in without rationally evaluated. Targets should be evaluated carefully.  
- Risk up to 5% is the best risk level to enter.
- Risk of 5% -10% can be taken as a optimal risk.
- Above 20% risk is not recommended.
- RRR should be at least 2.

- GL
NC


Hope to come with, another article of "Deciding Optimal Profit Taking". And some teachnical readings of Tjl, Colo, Csd coming soon...
~ Cut your losses and let run your profits ~

Good Job

NC. Great

NC wrote:

One of few important persons should be Honored by Technical Readers who developed the following theories...

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respect them

Mr NC can u please do a chart on CINV.It is very undervalued and attractive for me. Thanks

kassachandi wrote:Mr NC can u please do a chart on CINV.It is very undervalued and attractive for me. Thanks

Yes, CINV is a undervalued share. But donot go all after most undervalue stocks, bcz the counter has been unattractive due to some of reason, that couldn't be explained just looking financial statements. Its not realavent with CINV, generally satated it.
Technically, if you can wait to retest 100 its good.
However, if you hope to buy no objections. Bcz weekly pivot @ 100. If so better to keep your STP just below 98.

Thanks nc

Mr NC i cannot download the png file of CINV

kassachandi wrote:Mr NC i cannot download the png file of CINV  

Here it's.. servmig wasn't working when I tried to upload...

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Yes, CINV is a undervalued share. But donot go all after most undervalue stocks, bcz the counter has been unattractive due to some of reason, that couldn't be explained just looking financial statements. Its not realavent with CINV, generally satated it.
Technically, if you can wait to retest 100 its good.
However, if you hope to buy no objections. Bcz weekly pivot @ 100. If so better to keep your STP just below 98.

Thank u very much mr. NC ....

NC wrote:Namu Analysis:
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Namu is a fundamentally strong and undervalued company. Accroding to 2 years of history reading, seems its moving in a channel, as showed in the chart. A small double bottom could be identified and could ba taken as a good support and a STP.
Further, Namu is popular for its diversified crops. Mainly on Oil Palms. Continuous highest earnings even other palntation recroded lower earnings.
Thus, its attractive to investors on its higher dividends. The, con is its somewhat illquid.

Targets for Namu:
Short term: 115/- -110/-
Mid - long term: 160/-

Tjl: Good sign of buy.
Short term target: 21/-
STP: 19/-

Keep in touch with Wata and CSD. Opportunities ahead:
Wata will dip after XD date, 5/11/2014. Can be easily collected.
Short term Traget: 25/-
CSD: keep in touch. Target is 24/-

Mr.NC
Why u said to kit with CSD? Any div or sin stat out???

fff4sl wrote:Mr.NC
Why u said to kit with CSD? Any div or sin stat out???

I don't know about it and I didn't meant it.
I wanna say, Good entry points coming soon...

NC wrote:JINS.N:
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Thanks NC...

LIOC to extend over 50+

OSEA,TJL,PLC JINS and VONE will go to next level

VPEL to the next level

CTBL ASIY to next level

Their are other shares too will slowly move, but i am following these only.

In Finance Sector
SFIN UBC

UBC thogh over valued seem to hold on future expectations.

Also like to add VFIN

NC wrote:

fff4sl wrote:Mr.NC
Why u said to kit with CSD? Any div or sin stat out???

I don't know about it and I didn't meant it.
I wanna say, Good entry points coming soon...

I was waited for today...

CSD.N: Analysis

Here's the 5 years history view.
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Csd is moving in a long term channel. With the Hpp its completed it 16/- the first target and hit the ML. Then it retest some support. The 14/- was a good support as it's the 50% horizontal line there. And it is retested nicely.
Targets are;
S/T (short term) - 16 (Double top and 50% ML)
M/T - 21/- (75% line and 2.61 fib.ext),
L/T- 24-25/-. (100% UML)

Here's the one year view of CSD;
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If you clearly observed there's a small hpp. With todays break of 15/- its mostly confirmed and its good bullish sign. It could make double top at HH - 16.2/- the critical Res.
If it clearly break it'll easily move towards 21/-.

-GL