Short Term Targets

kasun_gimhana wrote:@KavinduTM
 you have done a good analysis. Haha, hope you will achieve your 1 billion target.

Yeah i did some. Thank you for getting me to that topic. i learned a lot of things 

Oh thanks 

Hi Kavindu 
Please respond to my last post.
Your take is awaited.

Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Please respond to my last post.
Your take is awaited.

Hi mate.

I don't think that will be a problem. GR will make them right. Actually i guess there are some inside fights with MR too. GR don't like some decisions made by MR. such as aviation appointments and above u mentioned.

Kavindu 
Do you think GR will secure 150+ @ election to be called March2.

Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
Do you think GR will secure 150+ @ election to be called March2.

I don't think. That's hard. he will secure 113+ but 2/3 is harder coz already some group of voters are disappointed saying the tax deduction didn't affected to ordinary people,Vegetable prices and some silly problems like that. And previous gov haven't paid the bills for medicine for 3 months (as i remember) and now they have to pay it. Almost there are no SPC medicines in pharmacies. Most of people need quick gains , so 2/3 will be harder (not impossible) but there's a doubt. And don't you think majority is enough? As above conversations happened, i guess overpower won't be good. Personally i believe GR as i see some special qualities of him. However that power (2/3 of parliament) will lead the country to the heaven or hell. Both is possible. however 2/3 is needed only for critical decisions neh? opposition will help for good decisions i guess. at least 30 more (as they will secure around 120). Tell me your idea about 2/3.

Kavindu. 100% agree. 
As per 19th amendment GR will be able to implement reforms if PM (that is MR) agreeable. My issue is MR agenda could be different from GR. If 2/3 got then 19th out & GR true executive President. That is why 150+ important. If he falls short maybe crossovers will happen. Await your response.

Kavindu 
Sorry to bother. 
Await your reply. 
Also will run start Wednesday?

Kipling wrote:Kavindu. 100% agree. 
As per 19th amendment GR will be able to implement reforms if PM (that is MR) agreeable. My issue is MR agenda could be different from GR. If 2/3 got then 19th out & GR true executive President. That is why 150+ important. If he falls short maybe crossovers will happen. Await your response.

Aha idk that. Yeah did u mean  that they will try to create 2/3 power by getting other MP's?

Yes. Will run start Wednesday

Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
Sorry to bother. 
Await your reply. 
Also will run start Wednesday?

Nah its okay xD.
Yeah i hope so.
When will be the GE? March or April?

Kipling wrote:Yes. Will run start Wednesday

Oh that's a real disaster isn't it? then gov will have to give their agreements or they will just go. 2010 to 2015 gov was controlled by those crossovers.

Hope they will secure 2/3. Will see.

Why should Gota clamor about the need to have a 2/3 majority in parliament? The opposition have already stated that all positive moves by the government shall have their backing. There could be a sinister motive behind this "need for a 2/3 majority."  After all, Gota has already proved that he is not the kind of guy who practices what he preaches.

Hi Kavindu 
Early February run yet to start.
Await your update.
Thanks

Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Early February run yet to start.
Await your update.
Thanks

Hey mate.
Yeah sooner bro sooner.

Hi Kavindu 
Will the minor run get delayed until GE called on March 2.
Thanks

Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Will the minor run get delayed until GE called on March 2.
Thanks

Hi Kipling.
Till GE , market will move slowly upward. Yeah major run post GE.
Will pass 6100 levels.

Kavindu 
6100 target I presume is before GE.
CAL report states 7600 immediately after GE & 9000-11000 with reforms post GE.
Are you on this page 100%.

Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
6100 target I presume is before GE.
CAL report states 7600 immediately after GE & 9000-11000 with reforms post GE.
Are you on this page 100%.

Yeah before GE.
I can say it will run and will break all time high, still can't say about 9000 or 10000.
However ASI will run and expect a level between 6500-7500 before the end of 2020.
But depends on gov decisions. We can expect more.

Cflb Hi Kavindu. 
FYI & comment please. 
 With underlying debt repayments being a concern, post-elections structural reforms are considered necessities for the market to touch 9,000-11,000 levels; However, CAL expects a return to the historical avg. of 12.5x which would mean an ASPI target exceeding 7,000
    
         Relationship
HisttorricicaallaAvgv.gP.EPRER
Average PER during a bull run
PER
10.25
12.5
15.5
ASPI
5,776.48
7,044.49
Upside
 Current
   T-Bill and ASPI
6,278.75
9.74%
 Base case
21.95%
 8,735.16
51.22%
 Average PER at the end of bull runs
19.0
10,707.62
85.37%
 Average Peer PER
20.0
11,271.18
95.12%
        We believe drastic structural changes are necessary to recover from the debt trap that Sri Lanka would be facing in the upcoming years. Such structural changes may assist in servicing debt in the long run. Hence, we believe structural changes are necessary for ASPI to hit 9000-11000 levels. However, with the expected stimulus from fiscal and monetary easing and stability post elections, ASPI may hit the levels of 7000 even without such structural changes.

Kipling wrote:Cflb Hi Kavindu. 
FYI & comment please. 
 With underlying debt repayments being a concern, post-elections structural reforms are considered necessities for the market to touch 9,000-11,000 levels; However, CAL expects a return to the historical avg. of 12.5x which would mean an ASPI target exceeding 7,000
    
         Relationship
HisttorricicaallaAvgv.gP.EPRER
Average PER during a bull run
PER
10.25
12.5
15.5
ASPI
5,776.48
7,044.49
Upside
 Current
   T-Bill and ASPI
6,278.75
9.74%
 Base case
21.95%
 8,735.16
51.22%
 Average PER at the end of bull runs
19.0
10,707.62
85.37%
 Average Peer PER
20.0
11,271.18
95.12%
        We believe drastic structural changes are necessary to recover from the debt trap that Sri Lanka would be facing in the upcoming years. Such structural changes may assist in servicing debt in the long run. Hence, we believe structural changes are necessary for ASPI to hit 9000-11000 levels. However, with the expected stimulus from fiscal and monetary easing and stability post elections, ASPI may hit the levels of 7000 even without such structural changes.

Yeah that's what i meant. We cant reach 7000 levels. And with the gov decisions it will boost.

Kavindu
This was followed by a report saying earnings to grow 32% by March 2020 & to maintain current PE market will have to be @ 7600. CAL sees tremendous upside this year itself. We know GR will introduce reforms. Note comment on deregulation & economic freedom @ Independence Day. I believe 150+ on. Await your take. Sorry table did not come clearly. Hope you were able to follow. Thanks & await reply.

Kipling wrote:Kavindu
This was followed by a report saying earnings to grow 32% by March 2020 & to maintain current PE market will have to be @ 7600. CAL sees tremendous upside this year itself. We know GR will introduce reforms. Note comment on deregulation & economic freedom @ Independence Day. I believe 150+ on. Await your take. Sorry table did not come clearly. Hope you were able to follow. Thanks & await reply.

Yeah. It's okay i understood that. Actually 150+ is kinda hard this time.

Perhaps. But worst case 130-35 on. When UNP MPs look at 10 years in the jungle they will jump & give GR 151 to end 19A. Agree?

Kipling wrote:Perhaps. But worst case 130-35 on. When UNP MPs look at 10 years in the jungle they will jump & give GR 151 to end 19A. Agree?

Yeah that will be the worst , so its better if they get around 120. Or more than 150 directly. Jumping will ruin the system. And gov will be trapped then. hope there won't happen such a bad thing again.

liyanaarachchi wrote:

KavinduTM wrote:Yeah @liyanaarachchi. Your point is correct. But watch what happened 2010 - 2015 period and what happened 2015 - 2020 periods. Downtrend started 2015.

EPS,NAV, PE ratios all are satisfying. And this will be a good investment. According to my view, Now it is a good time to enter.

Also technically it shows a good buy around 15.50/=
Also good dividend rate.

We can hope more than 1.25/= dividend this time.

This company has a good future. 17-18/= levels are expected in near future.

Thank you very much. We will able to get a dividend rate more than 8% for 1.25 rupees. 

I got those details by quarterly data reports of that company. Thanks for you advise and I will see. 

This is my first company. My broker recommended this company.

Good collections are going on.

TJL Dividend 

Voting share (N):

Dividend per share (Rs.):
Voting :1.300
Type of dividend:
First interim
Financial year:
2019/2020
Shareholder approval:
Not required
XD date:
17 Feb 2020
Payment date:
27 Feb 2020
Share transfer book:
Open
Description :

Teejay Lanka
(3M)
Revenue: up 5% to Rs. 8.9bn
GP: up 17%
NP: up 31% to Rs. 719mn
EPS: Rs. 1.02

(9M)
Revenue: up 15% to Rs. 26.3bn
GP: up 34%
NP: up 56% to Rs. 1.9bn
EPS: Rs. 2.79

NAV: Rs. 22.17
MPS: Rs. 40.20

Teller wrote:

Mr Teller 
TJL.N
Your Target Rs 57.60 . 
Still, valid ???

Of course, i dont revised target except PESTEEL factors. I clearly told TJL journey is not a sudden one. Currently its filled 79.2% of the gearing map, of course it takes time. Also i gave Oase to 17.75, mean while COMB to come down 84/-, same way AEL 17.40. I believe my calc because those are world class standard valuations. Remember how teller recommended DPL,GHLL,CIND even LFIN @130 to 157. Lolc 105 to 125/-, i know how it works.