POULTY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT & IMPACT ON #CIC

Ok One · 21 Re: POULTY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT & IMPACT ON #CIC Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:54 am

Ok One

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 438
Join date : 2014-10-26

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Thanks VP,

Globally people undergo a food crisis over the years. its not only for meat.

However as Teller quoted we need to assess the threats to the industry domestically. As a valued personal in SLEF, if u find such information why don't u put some inputs for the benefit for all members.

The current sentiments overlooks a very positive opportunities for all poultry related stocks. specially counters which have not picked up could have better chance for not falling back effect. Overall its the consolidation phase for all stocks.

Happy Investments

Thanks expert ......good job ..... I love you

peacockman · 22 Re: POULTY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT & IMPACT ON #CIC Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:04 am

peacockman

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 808
Join date : 2015-06-17

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi Guys,

I am quite bullish with Chicken due to following. It is purely based on positive outlook of the poultry industry.

These counter have a huge potential due to;

1. Low supply of chicks in the local and international markets
2. Lowest ever grain prices
3. Increased demand for chicken domestically due tourism/increased consumer disposable income and internationally.
4. Projected escalating demand for Chicken due Christmas(December) and New year(April) seasons.

It is strongly recommended this trend up to next June on wards. Who ever patiently collected are winners with higher gains and we have already witnessed currently too.

Target Prices of Counters in June 2016

1. BFL - Rs 360/-
2 TAFL - Rs 190/-
3. GRAN - Rs 150/-

4. CIC.N - Rs 150/-
5. CIC.X - Rs 120/-

Further it is notable that even most of the above counters appreciated and still strong buying support is witness at these levels. However CIC.N and CIC.X have not witnessed its move from the blocks.

They have recorded a growth of 94% QoQ growth during 1Q 2015/16 FY. The above results were derived by an improved performance across most sectors with in the Group. The Agriculture and Livestock sector had an operating profit of Rs 473 million in the first quarter of 2015/16, an increase of 54% over the corresponding period last year.The increase in profitability is attributed to the performance of the agribusiness companies in the Group, including the dairy sector and CIC Feeds which showed a notable improvement from the previous year. 50% - 60% of the CIC group in concentrated on poultry business.

Many have sought after top 3 of the above list and CIC has a very good potential for all of us to gain at least 35% return if we enter at current price levels.

However all counters falls under the poultry industry are strongly recommended to buy considering this strong current financial earnings and very positive industry prospects to deliver significant profits with in next 2 years.

Happy Investments

My Dear ONTHEMONEY,
very good analysis! Keep it up!!
You're right that the Investment in Poultry Counters for 2-3 Quarters is the best & Your Targets might be achievable before June (may be Before December or March...)
(by the by, The demand items are not only chickens but also Eggs)

ONTHEMONEY · 23 Re: POULTY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT & IMPACT ON #CIC Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:07 am

ONTHEMONEY

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 651
Join date : 2011-01-28

Hi everyone,

Thank you for ur comments and appreciation.

We all should be vigilant on Macro factors causing threats and opportunities for any industry. Poultry industry posses a bright future ahead.

However collection on any of the above counters associate short term risk if bought at higher prices and its advisable to collect stocks which has not jumped out of the blocks to be on the safe side.

Happy Investments

fadhlilham · 24 Re: POULTY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT & IMPACT ON #CIC Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:24 am

fadhlilham

Equity Analytic

Posts : 26
Join date : 2015-10-20

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi Guys,

I am quite bullish with Chicken due to following. It is purely based on positive outlook of the poultry industry.

These counter have a huge potential due to;

1. Low supply of chicks in the local and international markets
2. Lowest ever grain prices
3. Increased demand for chicken domestically due tourism/increased consumer disposable income and internationally.
4. Projected escalating demand for Chicken due Christmas(December) and New year(April) seasons.

It is strongly recommended this trend up to next June on wards. Who ever patiently collected are winners with higher gains and we have already witnessed currently too.

Target Prices of Counters in June 2016

1. BFL - Rs 360/-
2 TAFL - Rs 190/-
3. GRAN - Rs 150/-

4. CIC.N - Rs 150/-
5. CIC.X - Rs 120/-

Further it is notable that even most of the above counters appreciated and still strong buying support is witness at these levels. However CIC.N and CIC.X have not witnessed its move from the blocks.

They have recorded a growth of 94% QoQ growth during 1Q 2015/16 FY. The above results were derived by an improved performance across most sectors with in the Group. The Agriculture and Livestock sector had an operating profit of Rs 473 million in the first quarter of 2015/16, an increase of 54% over the corresponding period last year.The increase in profitability is attributed to the performance of the agribusiness companies in the Group, including the dairy sector and CIC Feeds which showed a notable improvement from the previous year. 50% - 60% of the CIC group in concentrated on poultry business.

Many have sought after top 3 of the above list and CIC has a very good potential for all of us to gain at least 35% return if we enter at current price levels.

However all counters falls under the poultry industry are strongly recommended to buy considering this strong current financial earnings and very positive industry prospects to deliver significant profits with in next 2 years.

Happy Investments

You missed some main main point of CIC
1.When oil prices come down the demand for bio fuels (where maize is used) come down when demand for maizes comes down, when demand for maize comes down maizes prices come down in world markets
2.CIC invested LKR 700 mn in a maize cultivation project
3.demand for maize from the local poultry industry is 350,000 MT while 190,000 MT is imported
3.when LKR is devalued local demand for local maize has increased

VALUEPICK · 25 Re: POULTY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT & IMPACT ON #CIC Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:42 am

VALUEPICK

Expert

Posts : 3326
Join date : 2014-02-26

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Thanks VP,

Globally people undergo a food crisis over the years. its not only for meat.

However as Teller quoted we need to assess the threats to the industry domestically. As a valued personal in SLEF, if u find such information why don't u put some inputs for the benefit for all members.

The current sentiments overlooks a very positive opportunities for all poultry related stocks. specially counters which have not picked up could have better chance for not falling back effect. Overall its the consolidation phase for all stocks.

Happy Investments

I have lot of vegetarian friends globally. We have to respect for their opinions because they are the one which will try to safeguard animal right. End of the honey bees means end of the human race.

There are lot of thing to learn in this sector. Every industry has risk and returns. We should try to minimize risk by keeping good investment strategy and good risk management system.

Actually main reason for local poultry sector recovery is tourism boom. In some period cost of production can go up when we see hot grain market. We are not going to see in the near future and even for 2016. In developed world when cost goes up they naturally will increase price of their products. These days they are enjoying low commodity inflation. As a result of this their purchasing power has gown up. Still Fed has not raised their interest rate. When they gradually begin to raise their interest rate, USD could become stronger especially toward end of 2016, 2017 and 2018. Strong dollar means weak commodity prices.

Locally still they have some more capacity in the poultry sector. Currently, if I am correct even non listed Pusselawa has some export market in Miramar. There is some growth isn’t it? However no industry will have supper perform all the time. There could be short term issues time to in any industry. Intelligent value investors will analyse long term prospects rather than short term trend. When they select companies they will select value companies having long term growth potential. They will look for companies having better cost and risk management system as well. When we pick stocks in this sector we should pay attention to better farm management system as well.

There will be demand for food as long as population growth is there. China cannot supply fully locally all types of meat. They have to import countries such as the USA, Australia and New Zealand in the coming years. There will be some opportunities for Asian countries as well. However Asian population is growing faster than other countries. They will have to feed their own people first.

Future earnings will drive stocks prices in the long run. It is better to have some idea about at least four to eight quarter of forward earnings as well. Those who have good knowledge about industry and trend will make better decisions in stock markets. Some can identify major move in industry and major uptrend in stock prices. They will just stay calm. Therefore those who new to the market should learn as much as possible before they buy and sell stocks. Why don’t we study earning of selected companies in some sectors during next eight quarters? Then we can get better idea. We should study our stocks before buying and after buying as well. I would like to stay with simple businesses that I know very well.

There is should be special reasons to buy stocks and special reasons to sell stocks. In bull markets stocks prices will go up. In bear market stock prices will go down. Remember in bull market pull back create great opportunities.

ONTHEMONEY · 26 Re: POULTY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT & IMPACT ON #CIC Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:34 pm

ONTHEMONEY

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 651
Equity Stars : 5700
Reputation : 43
Join date : 2011-01-28
Location : COLOMBO

Hi everyone,

Thanks for sharing your valuable comments. It is important for us to concentrate on Macro factors on any industry as discussed. These factors pose opportunities as well as threats. The company or the group of companies strengths in terms assets and its weaker value chain factors are key to concern in these changes.

The poultry sector declines and witness a consolidation going on. However #CIC.X is being collected constantly last couple of days. It could be non movement from the blocks with the recent waves. It is vital to collect all the poultry counters if possible now since it becomes more attractive and less risky.

Happy Investments