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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » BANKING SECTOR

BANKING SECTOR

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51BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Banking and Finance Sector Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:26 am

ruwan326


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Banking sector profits seen losing steam ahead of 3Q earnings season-2018-10-16

The banking sector earnings, which once looked almost immune to economic cycles, have indicated some signs of weakness in recent times, as the sector is facing multiple headwinds, which are putting its resilience to test. 


The most recent data seen by Mirror Business signalled a possible decline in sector profits, which for over a year were plagued by a number of problems from higher credit costs to slowdown in demand for fresh loans.


The government has also slapped higher taxes on the banking sector, which is looked at as a cash cow to be milked every time the government coffers run dry. 


The data for the first eight months showed that although the interest income of the banking sector had increased by Rs.87.8 billion from the same period in 2017, the after tax profits had increased by only Rs.300 million. 


The banking sector reported after tax profits of Rs.86.9 billion in total during the first eight months in 2018, on an interest income of Rs.716.4 billion. 


In a note released on the banking sector performance in September, Fitch Ratings predicted a mild pressure on the performance during the rest of 2018 and possibly in 2019, due to the challenging operating conditions. 


Fitch Ratings is maintaining a ‘Negative’ outlook on the sector as the operating conditions continue to be difficult against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, which is expected to pressure the banks’ performance in the short to medium term. Sri Lanka’s banking sector asset quality fell to a new low in August this year, as the reported gross non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose to 3.6 percent, from 3.4 percent in July and 2.5 percent in 2017. 


However, the Central Bank believes the potential NPL ratio to be over 5.0 percent, as most banks are believed to have rescheduled the troubled loans to show a better picture. 


The rescheduled loans have increased by a staggering Rs.155 billion by end-August 2018, from Rs.93 billion a year ago, an increase of 66 percent. 


Higher credit costs or provisions for possible bad loans are also on the rise, denting the profits further. New taxes and higher tax rates have increased the banking sector effective tax rate to over 50 percent in most cases, making the industry the heaviest taxed in any country. 
As a result, the return on equity, the commonly watched investor ratio, which gauges the sector attractiveness, has declined by 310 basis points during the eight months, to 14.5 percent. 


This is also partly due to the new capital raised by the banks since 2017 to remain compliant with the full implementation of the BASEL III capital ratios coming into effect from January 1, 2019. 


Sri Lankan banks have raised Tier I capital of Rs.66 billion and Tier II capital of Rs.45 billion since 2017, ahead of the full implementation of BASEL III in 2019, Fitch Rating said. “This includes Rs.10 billion of equity by the large state-licensed commercial banks. Further capital raising is likely in 2018, although much of the shortfall was bridged in 2017,” the rating agency noted. 

Despite the weakness in earnings, the Sri Lankan banks remain relatively strong and well capitalized to withstand shocks after 
capital raisings. 


Banks will start filing their third quarter earnings from next week onwards. Analysts expect higher provisions and slowdown in new loans to decelerate earnings growth. 

http://www.dailymirror.lk/article/Ba...n--156910.html

52BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:34 am

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
There is nothing surprising. All sectors are bound to lose steam!

53BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:21 pm

Yahapalanaya


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ruwan326 wrote:Banking sector profits seen losing steam ahead of 3Q earnings season-2018-10-16

The banking sector earnings, which once looked almost immune to economic cycles, have indicated some signs of weakness in recent times, as the sector is facing multiple headwinds, which are putting its resilience to test. 


The most recent data seen by Mirror Business signalled a possible decline in sector profits, which for over a year were plagued by a number of problems from higher credit costs to slowdown in demand for fresh loans.


The government has also slapped higher taxes on the banking sector, which is looked at as a cash cow to be milked every time the government coffers run dry. 


The data for the first eight months showed that although the interest income of the banking sector had increased by Rs.87.8 billion from the same period in 2017, the after tax profits had increased by only Rs.300 million. 


The banking sector reported after tax profits of Rs.86.9 billion in total during the first eight months in 2018, on an interest income of Rs.716.4 billion. 


In a note released on the banking sector performance in September, Fitch Ratings predicted a mild pressure on the performance during the rest of 2018 and possibly in 2019, due to the challenging operating conditions. 


Fitch Ratings is maintaining a ‘Negative’ outlook on the sector as the operating conditions continue to be difficult against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, which is expected to pressure the banks’ performance in the short to medium term. Sri Lanka’s banking sector asset quality fell to a new low in August this year, as the reported gross non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose to 3.6 percent, from 3.4 percent in July and 2.5 percent in 2017. 


However, the Central Bank believes the potential NPL ratio to be over 5.0 percent, as most banks are believed to have rescheduled the troubled loans to show a better picture. 


The rescheduled loans have increased by a staggering Rs.155 billion by end-August 2018, from Rs.93 billion a year ago, an increase of 66 percent. 


Higher credit costs or provisions for possible bad loans are also on the rise, denting the profits further. New taxes and higher tax rates have increased the banking sector effective tax rate to over 50 percent in most cases, making the industry the heaviest taxed in any country. 
As a result, the return on equity, the commonly watched investor ratio, which gauges the sector attractiveness, has declined by 310 basis points during the eight months, to 14.5 percent. 


This is also partly due to the new capital raised by the banks since 2017 to remain compliant with the full implementation of the BASEL III capital ratios coming into effect from January 1, 2019. 


Sri Lankan banks have raised Tier I capital of Rs.66 billion and Tier II capital of Rs.45 billion since 2017, ahead of the full implementation of BASEL III in 2019, Fitch Rating said. “This includes Rs.10 billion of equity by the large state-licensed commercial banks. Further capital raising is likely in 2018, although much of the shortfall was bridged in 2017,” the rating agency noted. 

Despite the weakness in earnings, the Sri Lankan banks remain relatively strong and well capitalized to withstand shocks after 
capital raisings. 


Banks will start filing their third quarter earnings from next week onwards. Analysts expect higher provisions and slowdown in new loans to decelerate earnings growth. 

http://www.dailymirror.lk/article/Ba...n--156910.html
Let's see CDB,SAMP results in coming weeks.

54BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:18 am

soileconomy


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Yahapalanaya wrote:
@ruwan326 wrote:Banking sector profits seen losing steam ahead of 3Q earnings season-2018-10-16

The banking sector earnings, which once looked almost immune to economic cycles, have indicated some signs of weakness in recent times, as the sector is facing multiple headwinds, which are putting its resilience to test. 


The most recent data seen by Mirror Business signalled a possible decline in sector profits, which for over a year were plagued by a number of problems from higher credit costs to slowdown in demand for fresh loans.


The government has also slapped higher taxes on the banking sector, which is looked at as a cash cow to be milked every time the government coffers run dry. 


The data for the first eight months showed that although the interest income of the banking sector had increased by Rs.87.8 billion from the same period in 2017, the after tax profits had increased by only Rs.300 million. 


The banking sector reported after tax profits of Rs.86.9 billion in total during the first eight months in 2018, on an interest income of Rs.716.4 billion. 


In a note released on the banking sector performance in September, Fitch Ratings predicted a mild pressure on the performance during the rest of 2018 and possibly in 2019, due to the challenging operating conditions. 


Fitch Ratings is maintaining a ‘Negative’ outlook on the sector as the operating conditions continue to be difficult against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, which is expected to pressure the banks’ performance in the short to medium term. Sri Lanka’s banking sector asset quality fell to a new low in August this year, as the reported gross non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose to 3.6 percent, from 3.4 percent in July and 2.5 percent in 2017. 


However, the Central Bank believes the potential NPL ratio to be over 5.0 percent, as most banks are believed to have rescheduled the troubled loans to show a better picture. 


The rescheduled loans have increased by a staggering Rs.155 billion by end-August 2018, from Rs.93 billion a year ago, an increase of 66 percent. 


Higher credit costs or provisions for possible bad loans are also on the rise, denting the profits further. New taxes and higher tax rates have increased the banking sector effective tax rate to over 50 percent in most cases, making the industry the heaviest taxed in any country. 
As a result, the return on equity, the commonly watched investor ratio, which gauges the sector attractiveness, has declined by 310 basis points during the eight months, to 14.5 percent. 


This is also partly due to the new capital raised by the banks since 2017 to remain compliant with the full implementation of the BASEL III capital ratios coming into effect from January 1, 2019. 


Sri Lankan banks have raised Tier I capital of Rs.66 billion and Tier II capital of Rs.45 billion since 2017, ahead of the full implementation of BASEL III in 2019, Fitch Rating said. “This includes Rs.10 billion of equity by the large state-licensed commercial banks. Further capital raising is likely in 2018, although much of the shortfall was bridged in 2017,” the rating agency noted. 

Despite the weakness in earnings, the Sri Lankan banks remain relatively strong and well capitalized to withstand shocks after 
capital raisings. 


Banks will start filing their third quarter earnings from next week onwards. Analysts expect higher provisions and slowdown in new loans to decelerate earnings growth. 

http://www.dailymirror.lk/article/Ba...n--156910.html
Let's see CDB,SAMP results in coming weeks.
Banking sector represent two banks....???

55BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:50 am

Yahapalanaya


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@soileconomy wrote:
@Yahapalanaya wrote:
@ruwan326 wrote:Banking sector profits seen losing steam ahead of 3Q earnings season-2018-10-16

The banking sector earnings, which once looked almost immune to economic cycles, have indicated some signs of weakness in recent times, as the sector is facing multiple headwinds, which are putting its resilience to test. 


The most recent data seen by Mirror Business signalled a possible decline in sector profits, which for over a year were plagued by a number of problems from higher credit costs to slowdown in demand for fresh loans.


The government has also slapped higher taxes on the banking sector, which is looked at as a cash cow to be milked every time the government coffers run dry. 


The data for the first eight months showed that although the interest income of the banking sector had increased by Rs.87.8 billion from the same period in 2017, the after tax profits had increased by only Rs.300 million. 


The banking sector reported after tax profits of Rs.86.9 billion in total during the first eight months in 2018, on an interest income of Rs.716.4 billion. 


In a note released on the banking sector performance in September, Fitch Ratings predicted a mild pressure on the performance during the rest of 2018 and possibly in 2019, due to the challenging operating conditions. 


Fitch Ratings is maintaining a ‘Negative’ outlook on the sector as the operating conditions continue to be difficult against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, which is expected to pressure the banks’ performance in the short to medium term. Sri Lanka’s banking sector asset quality fell to a new low in August this year, as the reported gross non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose to 3.6 percent, from 3.4 percent in July and 2.5 percent in 2017. 


However, the Central Bank believes the potential NPL ratio to be over 5.0 percent, as most banks are believed to have rescheduled the troubled loans to show a better picture. 


The rescheduled loans have increased by a staggering Rs.155 billion by end-August 2018, from Rs.93 billion a year ago, an increase of 66 percent. 


Higher credit costs or provisions for possible bad loans are also on the rise, denting the profits further. New taxes and higher tax rates have increased the banking sector effective tax rate to over 50 percent in most cases, making the industry the heaviest taxed in any country. 
As a result, the return on equity, the commonly watched investor ratio, which gauges the sector attractiveness, has declined by 310 basis points during the eight months, to 14.5 percent. 


This is also partly due to the new capital raised by the banks since 2017 to remain compliant with the full implementation of the BASEL III capital ratios coming into effect from January 1, 2019. 


Sri Lankan banks have raised Tier I capital of Rs.66 billion and Tier II capital of Rs.45 billion since 2017, ahead of the full implementation of BASEL III in 2019, Fitch Rating said. “This includes Rs.10 billion of equity by the large state-licensed commercial banks. Further capital raising is likely in 2018, although much of the shortfall was bridged in 2017,” the rating agency noted. 

Despite the weakness in earnings, the Sri Lankan banks remain relatively strong and well capitalized to withstand shocks after 
capital raisings. 


Banks will start filing their third quarter earnings from next week onwards. Analysts expect higher provisions and slowdown in new loans to decelerate earnings growth. 

http://www.dailymirror.lk/article/Ba...n--156910.html
Let's see CDB,SAMP results in coming weeks.
Banking sector represent two banks....???
You should have some brain to be in stock market.Every sector has good stocks and bad stocks. lol! lol! lol!

56BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:15 pm

TuTanKaman


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Fundamentally banking sector is weak. Economy slowdown is affecting very badly on NPAs. Most banks these days hide their NPAs under carpet. They have huge pressure to raise capital by 2020. Effective tax rate with medamulana tax is about 50%. Slfrs 9 on provisioning will see 40% increase in provisions this year. Be careful b4 invest

57BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:00 pm

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
NDB is not bad but seylan is quick money . its crashed to bottom. after Right issue over it will give u instant 50% return

58BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:13 pm

Mr-Star


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
SEMB.N   why same level within around 1 1/2 Years....

59BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:16 pm

PDH


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
ABL.............. Laughing

60BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Sell your all Bank, finance related shares. Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:41 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
If it happens, God bless all of us. I will update soon the scenario.

61BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:49 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Sir. Whats gonna happen  Shocked

62BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:50 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
http://puvath.lk/news.php?newsid=66529&ref=share&os=android


_________________




Teller said is said..

63BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:53 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Its a joke, government will not settle any thing for banks,finance companies. This will hit their cash flow in same way capital for fresh lending. Depositors be careful as your interest income will not receive on time.


_________________




Teller said is said..

64BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:54 am

kasun_gimhana

kasun_gimhana
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Right issues are coming baby ???? Or central bank going to prohibit cross-holding  LOl. I saw the news in the paper 2 months before.

65BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:55 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Who is baby...😂😂😂😂hahaaha


_________________




Teller said is said..

66BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:15 am

kasun_gimhana

kasun_gimhana
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Just kidding Sir, I sold entire my portfolio 25% Monday after the election, and around 25%  after the day following the Tax reduction announcement. Balance 50 % After few days. before the election, I found a "TOYIYA" bet against sajith premada 25000/=. won. see how much I earn due to election Laughing . Now I'm waiting to ASI going to below 5600  Very Happy Very Happy Laughing Laughing Laughing

67BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:45 am

Cricketman


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:If it happens, God bless all of us. I will update soon the scenario.
@Teller

This sort of panic is not good from a senior like you. 
First take the topic to the table & discuss.

68BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 7:17 am

Kaish86


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Banks already have liquidity issues. Now they going to face huge cash flow problems

69BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 9:33 am

ColomboCSE


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
poor decision! they should have proper process to do such case..

http://www.adaderana.lk/news_intensedebate.php?nid=59762

70BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:21 pm

Promoney


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Directive issued only for Banks. Will not affect Finance Companies.
It will be a restructuring of loans by providing a moratorium for one year. Capital payments will be pushed back by a year and the accruing interest will be capitalised as news loans.

Banks will be negatively impacted due to cashflows. But on the otherhand, profitability will increase further due to reduction in non-performing loans.

71BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:18 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
@cricketman,
I stand for the reality , no political agenda

Economy Next



Sri Lanka PM orders banks to halt recovery of loans up to Rs300mn
Friday December 20, 2019 23:01:18

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa has ordered banks in the country to stop recovery of loans up to 300 million in small and medium enterprises, the finance ministry has said.

“The Government has taken a decision to take up new initiative to revive SMEs of which outstanding debt not exceeding Rs 300 million in each entity since recently announced tax reform initiatives provide substantial savings to all banks including the Central Bank of Sri Lanka,” the Finance Ministry said.

“This concessionary action will be followed by a comprehensive package coupled with already announced tax concessions designed by the Ministry of Finance, economy and Policy development and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka which will support both the lender and the borrowers especially the SME sector.”

“President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa who is also the minister of Finance, economy and Policy development have issued directives to Chairmen and CEOs of all banks to suspend recovery of loans obtained by the SME sector.”

The full statement is reproduced below:

President, PM direct all banks to suspend recovery of SME loans

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa who is also the minister of Finance, economy and Policy development have issued directives to Chairmen and CEOs of all banks to suspend recovery of loans obtained by the SME sector.

The Government has taken a decision to take up new initiative to revive SMEs of which outstanding debt not exceeding Rs 300 million in each entity since recently announced tax reform initiatives provide substantial savings to all banks including the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

The Government expects the banks to use part of such savings to revive the SME sector on a priority basis.

The directives from the President and the Prime Minister also incorporates redresses to small and medium scale paddy millers as well since the government expect them to re-energise their milling operation to improve the competitiveness in the market and expects their capacities to be active in 2019/20 Maha season

This concessionary action will be followed by a comprehensive package coupled with already announced tax concessions designed by the Ministry of Finance, economy and Policy development and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka which will support both the lender and the borrowers especially the SME sector


_________________




Teller said is said..

72BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:19 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
ECONOMYNEXT- Sri Lanka’s corporate earnings among 264 listed firms fell 9.6 percent from a year earlier in the September 2019 quarter to 45.8 billion rupees, an equities report said.

“Lackluster performance in insurance, consumer services and food, beverage and tobacco weakened the quarterly earnings mainly owing to the lower consumer spending stemmed from subdued economic activities,” First Capital Research said in its report.

Low consumer spending was a result of a currency collapse leading to a credit contraction and bad loans coupled with Easter Sunday attacks targeting tourism.

Consumer services sector contributed 495 percent to earnings dip followed by a 365 percent fall in transport sector earnings and a 48 percent decline in the insurance sector.

“Consumer services sector earnings declined and posted a loss of 1.67 billion rupees as a result of drop in tourist arrival subsequent to the Easter Sunday attacks,” First Capital Research said.

“The insurance sector earnings recorded a substantial drop mainly due to earnings decline in Softlogic Life Insurance 85 percent from a deferred tax adjustment and Union Assurance 91 percent due to the increased transfer of insurance contract liabilities to the life fund,” First Capital Research said.

Beverage, Food and Tobacco earnings fell 7.8 billion rupees from 8.9 billion rupees in the 2018 quarter, dragged down by Browns Investment, Melstacorp and losses witnessed across the tea plantation industry.

Browns Investment reported a loss of 1.19 billion rupees compared to loss of 0.6 billion rupees in the 2018 quarter due to higher finance and administration cost.

Melstacorp earnings dropped by 58 percent or 0.624 billion rupees due to hefty taxes while the cost of sales increase compared to last year of the same period.

However, positive earnings were witnessed in material sector, consumer, durable and apparel sector and energy sector.

Profits grew in the material sector to 108 percent or 2.79 billion rupees from 1.34 billion rupees in the 2018 quarter.

Growth was driven by Tokyo Cement earnings growth of 573 percent or 0.805 billion rupees from 0.120 billion rupees in the previous quarter as a result of operational efficiencies and increase in maximum retail price.

Consumer, durable and apparel sector’s earnings grew 13,600 percent or 1.14 billion rupees in the current quarter compared to 0.08 billion rupees in the previous quarter driven by Teejay Lanka, Hayleys Fabrics and Ambeon Holdings.

Teejay Lanka reported a growth in its earnings of 84 percent or 0.783 billion rupees from 0.426 billion rupees in the previous quarter and Hayleys Fabrics earnings grew 84 percent or 0.138 billion rupees due to export growth.

Ambeon Holdings earnings were up 184 percent or 0.156 billion rupees compared to a loss reported in previous quarter, as a result of efficiency gains, strong order book and stable cotton prices.

Energy sector posted a strong earnings growth of 646 percent in profits as a result of Laugfs Gas earnings.

Laugfs Gas reported a growth in earnings of 106 percent or 0.017 billion rupees compared to a loss in the September 2018 quarter of 0.305 billion rupees due to a higher focus on bunkering, lubricant operations and export market. (Colombo/Dec19/2019)


_________________




Teller said is said..

73BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:23 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Another negative impact to earnings

Economy Next



Sri Lanka to up employer EPF contribution to 15-pct, start social security fund
Tuesday December 17, 2019 18:00:05

ECONOMYNEXT- Sri Lanka will raise the contribution by employers to the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) to 15 percent from the current 12 percent, and start a social security scheme for public and private sector workers who become unemployed, a government policy document said.

At the moment Sri Lankan workers contribute 8 percent of their salary to the EPF and the employer contributes 12 percent on top of the salary.

However, some employers reduce their contribution by giving employees ‘non-EPF’ money such as allowances by justifying them as company operating expenses.

The payouts from the EPF have been increasing in recent years as Sri Lanka’s workers are ageing quickly, reducing ‘captive’ funds available to bridge the budget deficit.

However higher salaries and expanding formal sector employment could boost EPF inflows.

The 2020-2025 policy said all firms will have to “to report the recruitment of new employees to the Department of Labour within one week.”

In 2018, inflows to the EPF grew 8.8 percent to 145 billion rupees from 133.3 billion a year earlier, while refunds to members and their heirs fell 8.1 percent to 108 billion rupees.

Net contributions were 37 billion rupees compared to 15.8 billion a year earlier.

The Rajapaksa administration’s 2025 policy document said “an insurance scheme for public and private sector employees who become unemployed” would be introduced.

There was no mention of the contribution rate for social security.

Both social security and higher EPF contributions would raise operating costs of formal domestic businesses and export industries, almost all of whom are in the formal sector.

However the collapse of the rupee from 2015 to 2018 from 131 to 182 to the US dollar by the central bank has reduced real wages of firms.

A new social security fund and higher EPF contributions will provide more resources to bridge the deficit.

Sri Lanka’s state revenues are expected to be under pressure after value added tax was slashed from 15 to 8 percent from December. (Colombo/Dec17/2019


_________________




Teller said is said..

74BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:26 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
I told you tax cut scenarios negative impact, so thats the reason i sold my most of PF

ECONOMYNEXT – The outlook on Sri Lanka’s sovereign credit has been downgraded to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ over recent tax cuts, but has confirmed an underlying rating of ‘B’.

“Revision of the Outlook to Negative from Stable reflects rising risks to debt sustainability from a significant shift in fiscal policy and the potential for roll-back of fiscal and economic reforms in the aftermath of November’s Presidential elections,” Fitch said in a statement.

“We believe the departure from the previous revenue-based fiscal consolidation path has created policy uncertainty and increased external financing risk for the sovereign, particularly given the large external debt repayments due in 2020 and beyond.”

Fitch said the value added tax cut and nation building tax could result in a loss of revenue of up to 2 percent gross domestic product and national debt is likely to move up.

“Following the tax cuts, Fitch projects that gross general government debt, currently at about 85% of GDP, will be on an upward trajectory over the medium-term in the absence of off-setting measures,: the rating agency said.

“Fitch believes the authorities still aim to reduce the deficit to below 4.0% of GDP over the medium-term in line with their previous consolidation plans.

However, the announced tax measures create uncertainty about the feasibility of these plans.”

Sri Lanka is expecting the cut spending mainly on capital projects.

“Fitch expects these offsetting measures, such as adjustments to excise taxes and spending cuts on non-priority public investment and recurrent expenditure, to mitigate part of the revenue loss from the tax announcement,” the rating agency said.

“However, the agency nevertheless expects the deficit to widen by about 1.5% of GDP relative to our previous forecasts.

Fitch is expecting a deficit of 6.5 percent for 2020 and 6.2 percent for 2021.

The full statement is reproduced below

Fitch Revises Outlook on Sri Lanka to Negative; Affirms at ‘B’

18 DEC 2019 09:04 AM ET

Fitch Ratings – Hong Kong – 18 December 2019:

Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Negative from Stable and has affirmed the IDR at ‘B’.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Revision of the Outlook to Negative from Stable reflects rising risks to debt sustainability from a significant shift in fiscal policy and the potential for roll-back of fiscal and economic reforms in the aftermath of November’s Presidential elections. We believe the departure from the previous revenue-based fiscal consolidation path has created policy uncertainty and increased external financing risk for the sovereign, particularly given the large external debt repayments due in 2020 and beyond.

Newly appointed President Gotabaya Rajapaksa announced sweeping tax cuts soon after taking office, including a revision of the value-added tax (VAT) rate to 8% from 15% (the rate applicable to financial services has been kept at 15%), an increase in the liable limit for VAT registration to LKR300 million, scrapping of the nation building tax, lowering the income tax rate for the highest income bracket to 18%, from 24%, and changing the withholding tax regime, among others.

Fitch’s preliminary estimates show that the VAT rate change and the scrapping of the nation building tax could alone lower revenue by as much as 2% of GDP in the absence of off-setting measures; VAT accounted for 24% of government revenues in 2018.

The authorities have identified offsetting revenue and expenditure measures that they believe would make these tax cuts revenue neutral. These include a hike in the excise duty on liquor and cigarettes, which accounts for about 10% of VAT revenue, and an increase in the Ports and Airports Development Levy to 10.0%, from 7.5%. In addition, financial services, which account for 15% of VAT, will not be affected by the rate cut.

The authorities project the expenditure adjustment to come mainly from a cutback in public investment.

Fitch expects these offsetting measures, such as adjustments to excise taxes and spending cuts on non-priority public investment and recurrent expenditure, to mitigate part of the revenue loss from the tax announcement. However, the agency nevertheless expects the deficit to widen by about 1.5% of GDP relative to our previous forecasts.

Fitch has revised its budget deficit projection to 6.5% of GDP for 2020 and 6.2% for 2021, which are higher than the authorities’ estimates, from 5.0% previously in both years.

Following the tax cuts, Fitch projects that gross general government debt, currently at about 85% of GDP, will be on an upward trajectory over the medium-term in the absence of off-setting measures.

Fitch believes the authorities still aim to reduce the deficit to below 4.0% of GDP over the medium-term in line with their previous consolidation plans. However, the announced tax measures create uncertainty about the feasibility of these plans.

The outlook for the completion of the seventh and final review under the Extended Fund Facility arrangement with the IMF now seems uncertain and discussions of a new programme after the parliamentary elections expected in April 2020 could be complicated by the tax cuts.

Fitch acknowledges that the tax cut announcement has come during the early period of the new administration and that further policy announcements will follow, which could mitigate some fiscal issues. However, we believe the initial evidence of a roll-back of the revenue-driven fiscal consolidation path is negative for the sovereign’s creditworthiness.

The ‘B’ IDR also reflects the following key rating drivers:

Fitch expects growth to pick up to 3.5% in 2020 and 3.7% in 2021, from 2.8% in 2019. These forecasts reflect our expectation of a boost to growth in the short-term from the tax cuts, higher agricultural output and an ongoing recovery in tourism following last April’s terrorist bombings. Remittances are also likely to remain supportive of domestic demand.

Sri Lanka’s external balance sheet is weak, with external debt obligations totalling approximately USD19.0 billion coming due between 2020-2023, compared with foreign-exchange reserves of around USD7.5 billion as of end-November 2019. We expect the current account deficit to widen to about 3.0% of GDP in 2020 and 2021, from an estimated 2.2% in 2019, as domestic demand strengthens.

Large interest payments as a share of revenue, at about 46.0% (current peer median 10.2%), a low revenue ratio and a very high public debt/revenue ratio of 643% continue to highlight the weak structure of Sri Lanka’s public finances. In addition, foreign-currency debt is nearly half of total government debt and leaves public finances vulnerable to renewed currency depreciation.

Sri Lanka’s basic human-development indicators, including education standards, are high compared with the ‘B’ median, as it ranks in the 60th percentile of the UN’s Human Development Index compared with the 35th percentile of the current ‘B’ median. Furthermore, the country’s per capita income of USD4,023 (Fitch estimate as of end-2019) is somewhat higher than the current ‘B’ median of USD3,311.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch’s proprietary SRM assigns Sri Lanka a score equivalent to a rating of ‘B+’ on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR scale.

Fitch’s sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM to arrive at the final Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR by applying its QO, relative to rated peers, as follows:

– External Finances: -1 notch to reflect high sovereign external refinancing needs against relatively low foreign-currency reserves that leave the external position vulnerable to any adverse shifts in investor sentiment.

Fitch’s SRM is the agency’s proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR.

Fitch’s QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The main factors that individually, or collectively, could trigger a downgrade are:

– Failure to place the gross general government debt/GDP ratio on a downward path due to wider budget deficits or the crystallisation on the sovereign balance sheet of contingent liabilities that are linked to state-owned entities or government-guaranteed debt.

– Increase in external sovereign funding stresses that threaten the government’s ability to meet upcoming debt maturities, particularly in the event of a loss of confidence by international investors.

– A further deterioration in policy coherence and credibility, leading to lower GDP growth and/or macroeconomic instability.

The main factors that, individually or collectively, could lead to a revision of the Outlook to Stable:

– Stronger public finances, underpinned by a credible medium-term fiscal strategy that places gross general government debt/GDP on a downward path, accompanied by higher government revenue.

– Improvement in external finances, supported by lower net external debt or a reduction in refinancing risk; for example, from a lengthening of debt maturities or increased foreign-exchange reserves.

– Improved macroeconomic policy coherence and credibility, evidenced by more predictable policy-making and a track record of meeting previously announced economic and financial targets.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

– Global economic outcomes are consistent with Fitch’s latest Global Economic Outlook report.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

– Sri Lanka has an ESG relevance score of ‘5’ for political stability and rights, as World Bank governance indicators have the highest weight in Fitch’s SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight.

– Sri Lanka has an ESG relevance score of ‘5’ for rule of law, institutional and regulatory quality and control of corruption, as World Bank governance indicators have the highest weight in Fitch’s SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight.

– Sri Lanka has an ESG relevance score of ‘4’ for human rights and political freedom, as World Bank governance indicators have the highest weight in Fitch’s SRM and are relevant to the rating and a rating driver.

– Sri Lanka has an ESG relevance score of ‘4’ for creditors’ rights, as willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and a rating driver, as for all sovereigns.


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Teller said is said..

75BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:27 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
index should down to 5632


_________________




Teller said is said..

76BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 4:05 pm

ColomboCSE


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Promoney wrote: But on the otherhand, profitability will increase further due to reduction in non-performing loans.

"profitability will increase further" WHAT??  lol! lol!

77BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:24 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂


_________________




Teller said is said..

78BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:19 pm

engineer


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
The government has ordered the suspension of the auction of properties of small and medium entrepreneurs who have to foreclose on properties due to the inability to pay bank loans.
State Minister of Development Banking and Loan Schemes Shehan Semasinghe said that this new decision of the government will provide relief to small and medium scale rice mill owners.

http://www.adaderana.lk/news_intensedebate.php?nid=59772

After reading above I feel whether there is a misinterpretation of news circulating around Shocked cyclops

79BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:43 pm

jaya


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
This will not be a serious issue, eye wash for upcoming Election.
Probably they will give extension of time to pay back, grace period or redress the credit.
Don’t sell your Bank shares, dividend are around the corner.

80BANKING SECTOR - Page 3 Empty Re: BANKING SECTOR Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:21 pm

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@ColomboCSE wrote:
@Promoney wrote: But on the otherhand, profitability will increase further due to reduction in non-performing loans.

"profitability will increase further" WHAT??  lol! lol!
Yes, because Banks have provided very high level of Bad Loans (According to new Accounting standard introduced about 1 year ago) and most of them now will become performing loans and all that will become 100% Profit items.

If these loans are delayed for a long time (Like 3 years) even without interest collected during that period, then ofcourse there is a major impact for Banks.. But if they are only principals, then there is only a impact of cash flow, but then more profits with loans getting active again..

Anyway this type of hapzard decisions are bad for the economy, investor confidence.  Should not target Financial sector, which is very sensitive and a crash can destroy economy for a long time... But Govt can launch Enterprise Sri Lanka like law interest schemes for deserving Enterprises...

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