THE LANKA HOSPITALS CORPORATION PLC (LHCL.N0000)

As per the quarter ended from 30.09.2010 reports Earnings 64,301,732
Expected growth in earnings for quarter ended 31.12.2010 65%
Expected earnings 106,097,858
No. of shares in issue 223,732,169
Expected EPS. 0.47
EPS (0.47*4). 1.88
Health care sector P/E ratio 34.21
Intrinsic Value of a share (1.88 * 34.21) Rs. 64.30
Current Market Price Rs. 38.90

Therefore, price is under valued heavily.

With the growth rate identified in revenue from quarterly reports published previously, it is obvious that the growth rate exceeds 65%

This is my view. Analyse yourself and make the decision.

EPS for last 9 months :0.75 (from last q report)
EPS for Q3 :0.47
If we assume 25% growth (this is best we could expect...I dont know from where did u get data for 65% bottom line growth....I feel it is way tooo high) eps for q4 would be :0.36

EPS for 2010 would be around :1.11

with above EPS, this is currently trading at PER of 38/1.11=34...
I feel it is already over valued...Any way sector PER is much below than 34...As per my broker's report sector pER is 20+.

correction...

EPS for q3 shd be :0.29 .NOT 0.47.

I feel we cant even take 25% growth... when considering their q2/q3 trend..

q2ToQ3 Rev chnage :10% growth only..
q2 to q3 bottom line chnage :-6% reduction....

So we could expect around 10 max growth...

In this curcumtances this is really really overvalued already...

Correct me if I'm wrong...cause we shd not mislead the crowd...

NVPS is 9.73
Current PER is over 35. It's highly overvalued

Interim reports will be issued during next week probably. Let's see whether the growth ranges from 25% to 65%. Happy Trading

marketanalyst wrote:Interim reports will be issued during next week probably. Let's see whether the growth ranges from 25% to 65%. Happy Trading

Even if they produce 25% QoQ growth in 3Q, it's very difficult to justify to the current market price.

If we assume that there's no growth in 31.12.2010 quarter annualized EPS 0.29*4 = 1.16

According to the Direct FN, health care sector P/E comes around 34.2192

Then the value comes around Rs. 56.80

How come over valued this share???

I feel it's still under valued.

Marketsentiment wrote:If we assume that there's no growth in 31.12.2010 quarter annualized EPS 0.29*4 = 1.16

According to the Direct FN, health care sector P/E comes around 34.2192

Then the value comes around Rs. 56.80

How come over valued this share???

I feel it's still under valued.

This is just like the Dhammika perera article.

the value comes to around 39.60 and not 56.80

I don't understand why people say this over valued.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/516_1289552831393.09.2010.pdf

according to above financial statements, EPS comes around 0.29

Annualised EPS 0.29*4 = 1.15 *34.12 (P/E) = Rs. 39

If the growth rate in this quarter becomes 25% = 0.29*4*125%*34.12 = Rs. 49

If the growth rate in this quarter becomes 50% = 0.29*4*150%*34.12 = Rs. 58.80

If the growth rate in this quarter becomes 65% = 0.29*4*165%*34.12 = Rs. 64.70

if you think this is worth 56, please do go ahead and buy as much as you can. Don't let anyone persuade you otherwise. While you are at it, please do mortgage your house and take a lease on your car and invest that money as well.

investor123 wrote:I don't understand why people say this over valued.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/516_1289552831393.09.2010.pdf

according to above financial statements, value comes more than Rs. 56.

Can you explain me, how this is worth 56/-

investor123 wrote:I don't understand why people say this over valued.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/516_1289552831393.09.2010.pdf

according to above financial statements, value comes more than Rs. 56.

how did you get this value?

according to above financial statements, EPS comes around 0.29

Annualised EPS 0.29*4 = 1.15 *34.12 (P/E) = Rs. 39

If the growth rate in this quarter becomes 25% = 0.29*4*125%*34.12 = Rs. 49

If the growth rate in this quarter becomes 50% = 0.29*4*150%*34.12 = Rs. 58.80

If the growth rate in this quarter becomes 65% = 0.29*4*165%*34.12 = Rs. 64.70

investor123 wrote:according to above financial statements, EPS comes around 0.29

Annualised EPS 0.29*4 = 1.15 *34.12 (P/E) = Rs. 39

If the growth rate in this quarter becomes 25% = 0.29*4*125%*34.12 = Rs. 49

If the growth rate in this quarter becomes 50% = 0.29*4*150%*34.12 = Rs. 58.80

If the growth rate in this quarter becomes 65% = 0.29*4*165%*34.12 = Rs. 64.70

What a calculation.

According to your calculation SAMP should at trade at 1000/-, RICH should trade at 40/- or even more and list goes on...

Monster wrote:

investor123 wrote:according to above financial statements, EPS comes around 0.29

Annualised EPS 0.29*4 = 1.15 *34.12 (P/E) = Rs. 39

If the growth rate in this quarter becomes 25% = 0.29*4*125%*34.12 = Rs. 49

If the growth rate in this quarter becomes 50% = 0.29*4*150%*34.12 = Rs. 58.80

If the growth rate in this quarter becomes 65% = 0.29*4*165%*34.12 = Rs. 64.70

What a calculation.

According to your calculation SAMP should at trade at 1000/-, RICH should trade at 40/- or even more and list goes on...

If forecasting was so easy there wouldn't be a need for CFAs.

But investor123, you sound pretty convinced. Then the obvious thing to do would be to keep quite. Because if people notice your calculations and start buying based on it, you will not be able to buy any more shares yourself. You (investor123) should buy as much as you can, and wait for the next quarter results. Sell your car, sell your house, sell the furniture and invest in LHCL.

investor123 ; what 's the rationle behind taking growth rate of 25% QonQ.If u can give facts & figures based on which u assume 25% growth......that will be good.../

This share is definitely overvalued.
I think the reason behind the price increase is the report that Harry J (DIST)
was trying to sell their stake of 28.59% and was asking 60.00 per share.

Even if it does go at 60. there wont be a mandatory offer (below 30%) unless an existing major share holder buys it which looks unlikely.

According to your calculation SAMP should at trade at 1000/-, RICH should trade at 40/- or even more and list goes on...[/quote]

According to my calculation SAMP values Rs. 742

investor123 wrote:

According to my calculation SAMP values Rs. 742

you are our new gem finder.

npp wrote:

investor123 wrote:

According to my calculation SAMP values Rs. 742

you are our new gem finder.

අපිත් පතලක් බහිමු

@investor123,

Like to know ur value for Semb X.

100 or more?

abra12 wrote:@investor123,

Like to know ur value for Semb X.

100 or more?

Crap bullshit

yes now 50 will hit75-80 next week

Sorry if I say something I shouldn't:-

Couldn't help noticing some accounts here with almost same "Join Dates". Multiple accounts?

marketanalyst, Marketsentiment and investor123

marketanalyst wrote:As per the quarter ended from 30.09.2010 reports Earnings    64,301,732
Expected growth in earnings for quarter ended 31.12.2010     65%
Expected earnings                                                         106,097,858
No. of shares in issue                                                     223,732,169
Expected EPS.                                                               0.47
EPS (0.47*4).                                                               1.88
Health care sector P/E ratio                                             34.21
Intrinsic Value of a share (1.88 * 34.21)                           Rs. 64.30
Current Market Price                                                      Rs. 38.90

Therefore, price is under valued heavily.

With the growth rate identified in revenue from quarterly reports published previously, it is obvious that the growth rate exceeds 65%

This is my view. Analyse yourself and make the decision.

These days FD rate is around 7%

if you invest 100 in FD you get 7

If you invest stock market

Value = Stock Price / EPS <= 100/7
then P/E Ratio <= 14.28

which is more than 14.28 Highly over value. Investing in FD no Risk (But there also Risk Invisible Risk)

which is Under value Share P/E , 6 - 10
Highly Under Value Shares P/E < 6

then 10-14 is Valued share according to Risk and Expansion.

Now you compare Sector P/E 36
and saying to that share is Under Value

"aiy meke inne thanakola kana gonnuda"

if you think its Under Value you can think.
habai Suba Anagathayak .......!

Final Thing Under Value or Over Value is defined by using past Performance
Future expectations is a "Dream"