DIPD/HAYC/HAYL

Equityinvestor, you can view the article in the writer's (joy Roshan Jebanesan) linkedin page please.

samaritan wrote:Equityinvestor, you can view the article in the writer's (joy Roshan Jebanesan) linkedin page please.

Thanks..

Dear All
Big hands are collecting most valuable shares .. Watch carefully

DIPD HAYC EXPO HAYL ELPL

HAYC came again to Rs.500

Next DIPD for Rs.400

Equityinvestor wrote:

samaritan wrote:HAYC the next Big Long?

Joy Roshan Jebanesan

[size=14]Senior Consultant - Banking and Capital Markets at PwC Australia

[/size]

• The next BIG LONG is water and air, since HAYC is catering to those segments growth potential is immense.
  
  
• A global leader in coconut based activated carbon with a market share of 16%. HAYC generated LKR 19.2bn revenue in FY20 with activated carbon).
  
  
• Purely 1HY results [57 EPS] was due to the operating margin growth supported by the strong performance of value-added products such as super capacitor carbons. Therefore, this SUCCESS is not a one off COVID driven story.
  
  
• Inventory of LKR 6.8bn suggests HAYC’s order book is full up to Q3 therefore the fluctuations in raw material availability is minimized till Q3. Higher inventory is a good indication that HAYC could repeat 2Q performance in 3Q as well.
  
  
• Higher operating cash flow (FY21E), balance sheet strength (lower debt) along with the prevailing lower interest rate environment gives opportunities for acquisition.
  
  
• Oxypura ‘care’ facemask will see growth even after COVID-19 as it will cater to the rising air pollution [100% Sri Lankan brand!!]
  
  
• Approx. USD 56Mn Maldives sewerage project [Puritas] remains in the pipeline and yet to be incorporated into estimates.
  
  
• The current Government's support to promote coconut development will benefit HAYC in the medium term.
  
• (source: Linkedin, published on 8th November 2020))
  
  

Can you pls share the link for this article?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hayc-next-big-long-joy-roshan-jebanesan?articleId=6731072341759160320

Wonderer wrote:

Equityinvestor wrote:

samaritan wrote:HAYC the next Big Long?

Joy Roshan Jebanesan

[size=14]Senior Consultant - Banking and Capital Markets at PwC Australia

[/size]

• The next BIG LONG is water and air, since HAYC is catering to those segments growth potential is immense.
  
  
• A global leader in coconut based activated carbon with a market share of 16%. HAYC generated LKR 19.2bn revenue in FY20 with activated carbon).
  
  
• Purely 1HY results [57 EPS] was due to the operating margin growth supported by the strong performance of value-added products such as super capacitor carbons. Therefore, this SUCCESS is not a one off COVID driven story.
  
  
• Inventory of LKR 6.8bn suggests HAYC’s order book is full up to Q3 therefore the fluctuations in raw material availability is minimized till Q3. Higher inventory is a good indication that HAYC could repeat 2Q performance in 3Q as well.
  
  
• Higher operating cash flow (FY21E), balance sheet strength (lower debt) along with the prevailing lower interest rate environment gives opportunities for acquisition.
  
  
• Oxypura ‘care’ facemask will see growth even after COVID-19 as it will cater to the rising air pollution [100% Sri Lankan brand!!]
  
  
• Approx. USD 56Mn Maldives sewerage project [Puritas] remains in the pipeline and yet to be incorporated into estimates.
  
  
• The current Government's support to promote coconut development will benefit HAYC in the medium term.
  
• (source: Linkedin, published on 8th November 2020))
  
  

Can you pls share the link for this article?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hayc-next-big-long-joy-roshan-jebanesan?articleId=6731072341759160320

Thank you for sharing this !

Win Win wrote:Dear All
Big hands are collecting most valuable shares .. Watch carefully

DIPD  HAYC  EXPO  HAYL  ELPL

Yes it witnessed today

Initially sold down,then collected

Win Win wrote:HAYC came again to Rs.500

Next DIPD for Rs.400

@WinWin - What is your take on covid vaccines and future earning potential of Dipped ?

I would greatly appreciate your view on this matter. I don’t see any immediate impact but i know you have studied a lot about the company and have a much better idea than me.

Thanks in advance.

Asia Sec revalues HAYC at 720.

[size=32]We continue to value HAYC at 6.1x P/E and lift our [/size][size=32]TP to 720.00[/size][size=32]/share on upgraded EPS. We re-iterate our BUY rating. HAYC reported a 2Q FY21 EPS of LKR 34.42/share ahead of ASEC est. of LKR 21.45/share. The beat came on stronger than expected margin expansion in the Activated carbon segment. HAYC confirms that orders for 2H FY21E are secured. Incorporating this and better margins we upgrade our FY21E EPS. For FY22E, we factor in softening gold prices, on stabilising global outlook, to dampen segment’s demand for activated carbon. Nevertheless, we iterate HAYC’s long-term growth catalysts leveraging on climate change.[/size]

Mithooshan wrote:

Win Win wrote:HAYC came again to Rs.500

Next DIPD for Rs.400

@WinWin - What is your take on covid vaccines and future earning potential of Dipped ?

I would greatly appreciate your view on this matter. I don’t see any immediate impact but i know you have studied a lot about the company and have a much better idea than me.

Thanks in advance.

As per sources, order book is full for 2H of FY 2021

My concern re:DIPD is the increase in price of rubber and hence the cost of production and also the latest news on Covid vaccine. 
Keen to know the impact on future of DIPD.
Did it lose steam today based on the above factors???

samaritan wrote:My concern re:DIPD is the increase in price of rubber and hence the cost of production and also the latest news on Covid vaccine. 
Keen to know the impact on future of DIPD.
Did it lose steam today based on the above factors???

i don't think so...

today the issue is foreign sales.

litle bit more have to go.

samaritan wrote:My concern re:DIPD is the increase in price of rubber and hence the cost of production and also the latest news on Covid vaccine. 
Keen to know the impact on future of DIPD.
Did it lose steam today based on the above factors???

i think vaccine will definitely affects to these shares...DIPD,EXPO will be bearish

IDK wrote:

samaritan wrote:My concern re:DIPD is the increase in price of rubber and hence the cost of production and also the latest news on Covid vaccine. 
Keen to know the impact on future of DIPD.
Did it lose steam today based on the above factors???

i think vaccine will definitely affects to these shares...DIPD,EXPO will be bearish

definitely that will be affected.,

IDK wrote:

samaritan wrote:My concern re:DIPD is the increase in price of rubber and hence the cost of production and also the latest news on Covid vaccine. 
Keen to know the impact on future of DIPD.
Did it lose steam today based on the above factors???

i think vaccine will definitely affects to these shares...DIPD,EXPO will be bearish

Why EXPO? 

Expo is not a Manufacturing company and they are handling freight. Once the vaccine comes, EXPO would fly as everyone need EXPO along with other freight company facilities to carry the vaccine one place to another.

samaritan wrote:My concern re:DIPD is the increase in price of rubber and hence the cost of production and also the latest news on Covid vaccine. 
Keen to know the impact on future of DIPD.
Did it lose steam today based on the above factors???

Vaccine is only a news 
Production, delivery will take 5/6 months

DIPD order book already full for the next two quarters

DIPD will report at least same result as September 

IDK wrote:

samaritan wrote:My concern re:DIPD is the increase in price of rubber and hence the cost of production and also the latest news on Covid vaccine. 
Keen to know the impact on future of DIPD.
Did it lose steam today based on the above factors???

i think vaccine will definitely affects to these shares...DIPD,EXPO will be bearish

 Still they have only the announcement but we have to wait long till we get those real vaccines in our country. And who knows they are going to test the vaccine on us ??? who knows ??? do you believe our deshapaluwo ??? nOOOO

Equityinvestor wrote:

Mithooshan wrote:

Win Win wrote:HAYC came again to Rs.500

Next DIPD for Rs.400

@WinWin - What is your take on covid vaccines and future earning potential of Dipped ?

I would greatly appreciate your view on this matter. I don’t see any immediate impact but i know you have studied a lot about the company and have a much better idea than me.

Thanks in advance.

As per sources, order book is full for 2H of FY 2021

Dear Mithoo
DIPD progress we can see in first 2 quarters were not totally come with Covid, it was an effort on strategic developments and plan from 3 yrs back. I agree there is 20% favorable impact on Covid for last reports.

As per the my analysis, DIPD Group have invested 2.3 / 2.4 Bn in last 1 & half years for expansions under both sectors in Gloves & plantations. This year, DIPD have invested heavily in Glove Manufacturing and outcome will be reflected from 3Q.

Under glove manufacturing, they are tending and more focus on high-end glove types and industrial and synthetic based gloves. The company has introduced many new developments and they own few patents also. The companies overall margin level has almost increased 30%  from these high-end glove types specially electrician gloves & supported gloves. We need to be proud DIPD is the one and only electrician glove producer for all capacities in south asian region and they had increased its capacity in last year end. Further, this year they had invested many high value glove manufacturing plants. Increasing natural rubber prices will affect minimal to companies bottom line due to two reasons such as DIPD has more with synthetic materials as well as they have own sources of rubber with good supply chain (Own Plantations as well as long-term company's suppliers with pre-agreed prices). Their Medical glove plants got advancement from Covid, but it has give less contribution with limited capacities. Glove Manufacturing Operation is under diversification stage and will boost their margins on these diversification to high-end customer focus products like sleeve products and new high end products like TPR. DIPD is ready to bring new developments and capture and expand market areas.
DIPD hand protection is getting more orders upon USA vs CHINA barriers and it will be very healthy for future expansions.

DIPD had introduced automation practices for their plants which increased their capacities with cost efficiencies. They are practicing their own cost efficiency programme with lean, six sigma practices and derived marvelous cost reduction and successed to capture new markets as well as customers while catering superior quality. They had reduced waste % to below 1% almost 50% reduction from previous year. The key success factor of DIIPD was manufacturing & operational excellence for premium quality product with driving cost efficiencies and innovations like process automated and new developments as well as product diversification.
When comes to COVID impact, the whole world is going to normalize covid and try to live with covid. 99% countries have opened their countries for normal economic activities with safety. This will boost glove demand not only medical type gloves, but mostly synthatic & industrial based gloves. DIPD has great opportunity to cater their products. DIPD is already started for offshore expansion of manufacturing facilities in order to capture this opportunities and it will add more profit to the companies future reports.

DIPD has superb chances with other favourable factors such as appreciation of FCY, low interest rates & will add more value from upcoming budget.

No need to explain TPL & KVAL who are leading price takers for TEA & RUBBER.

I believe that world will live with Covid and it will be normalized by aging of the time with 2 3 yrs. I do not have any information on order book for DIPD. But, onthemonet has written a great report on DIPD future and it can be agreed with the outcome of my studies. As per the reports, we can identify the potential of DIPD with 1 / 2 years future order book with present despite of already capitalized capacities. Therefore, they will invest more capacities in addition to current developments. This will be very healthy for top & bottom line with same overheads.

I am sure, DIPD will record more favourable quarter in Q3 than Q2 and I believe Estimated EPS of Rs.90 can be exceeded if DIPD success to capitalize opportunity and their started capacity expansions as at planned dates. Q1 & Q2 reflected their previous expansions including high-end product of electrician gloves and Q3 reflect more high-end value added diversified products. They are nicely handling operations under Covid specially manufacturing plants. It ensures that they have energetic management who are focusing and ensuring results oriented plans.

Considering Est EPS and other shares in the market, DIPD is the best investment in CSE. DIPD can reach Rs.600 to Rs.650 by the Jan 20. Further, give a clue for success. All directors in other companies sold shares at the peak. But, DIPD & HAYC directors did not sell and will not sell by considering future potential of these companies specially DIPD. This is the best evidence for the future potential.

Added few more points..

DIPD has recorded their foot-print across the world and they have direct contact with final customers and engaged and dedicated distribution channels to go any region / country in the world. With starting normal economic activities in American & Europe regions, DIPD can achieve more orders for industrial gloves and definitely, they have to establish more capacities despite of recent capitalized capacities and under-construction developments.

Next budget will give more incentives to DIPD and DIPD overcomes operational barries under any lockdown situation as under BOI/EDB category.

subash81 wrote:

samaritan wrote:My concern re:DIPD is the increase in price of rubber and hence the cost of production and also the latest news on Covid vaccine. 
Keen to know the impact on future of DIPD.
Did it lose steam today based on the above factors???

Vaccine is only a news 
Production, delivery will take 5/6 months

DIPD order book already full for the next two quarters

DIPD will report at least same result as September 

We will wish that any effort may overcome this disease. But truth is this efforts will need few years to normalize or normalize the life by aging few years ..

Win Win wrote:

Equityinvestor wrote:

Mithooshan wrote:

Win Win wrote:HAYC came again to Rs.500

Next DIPD for Rs.400

@WinWin - What is your take on covid vaccines and future earning potential of Dipped ?

I would greatly appreciate your view on this matter. I don’t see any immediate impact but i know you have studied a lot about the company and have a much better idea than me.

Thanks in advance.

As per sources, order book is full for 2H of FY 2021

Dear Mithoo
DIPD progress we can see in first 2 quarters were not totally come with Covid, it was an effort on strategic developments and plan from 3 yrs back. I agree there is 20% favorable impact on Covid for last reports.

As per the my analysis, DIPD Group have invested 2.3 / 2.4 Bn in last 1 & half years for expansions under both sectors in Gloves & plantations. This year, DIPD have invested heavily in Glove Manufacturing and outcome will be reflected from 3Q.

Under glove manufacturing, they are tending and more focus on high-end glove types and industrial and synthetic based gloves. The company has introduced many new developments and they own few patents also. The companies overall margin level has almost increased 30%  from these high-end glove types specially electrician gloves & supported gloves. We need to be proud DIPD is the one and only electrician glove producer for all capacities in south asian region and they had increased its capacity in last year end. Further, this year they had invested many high value glove manufacturing plants. Increasing natural rubber prices will affect minimal to companies bottom line due to two reasons such as DIPD has more with synthetic materials as well as they have own sources of rubber with good supply chain (Own Plantations as well as long-term company's suppliers with pre-agreed prices). Their Medical glove plants got advancement from Covid, but it has give less contribution with limited capacities. Glove Manufacturing Operation is under diversification stage and will boost their margins on these diversification to high-end customer focus products like sleeve products and new high end products like TPR. DIPD is ready to bring new developments and capture and expand market areas.
DIPD hand protection is getting more orders upon USA vs CHINA barriers and it will be very healthy for future expansions.

DIPD had introduced automation practices for their plants which increased their capacities with cost efficiencies. They are practicing their own cost efficiency programme with lean, six sigma practices and derived marvelous cost reduction and successed to capture new markets as well as customers while catering superior quality. They had reduced waste % to below 1% almost 50% reduction from previous year. The key success factor of DIIPD was manufacturing & operational excellence for premium quality product with driving cost efficiencies and innovations like process automated and new developments as well as product diversification.
When comes to COVID impact, the whole world is going to normalize covid and try to live with covid. 99% countries have opened their countries for normal economic activities with safety. This will boost glove demand not only medical type gloves, but mostly synthatic & industrial based gloves. DIPD has great opportunity to cater their products. DIPD is already started for offshore expansion of manufacturing facilities in order to capture this opportunities and it will add more profit to the companies future reports.

DIPD has superb chances with other favourable factors such as appreciation of FCY, low interest rates & will add more value from upcoming budget.

No need to explain TPL & KVAL who are leading price takers for TEA & RUBBER.

I believe that world will live with Covid and it will be normalized by aging of the time with 2 3 yrs. I do not have any information on order book for DIPD. But, onthemonet has written a great report on DIPD future and it can be agreed with the outcome of my studies. As per the reports, we can identify the potential of DIPD with 1 / 2 years future order book with present despite of already capitalized capacities. Therefore, they will invest more capacities in addition to current developments. This will be very healthy for top & bottom line with same overheads.

I am sure, DIPD will record more favourable quarter in Q3 than Q2 and I believe Estimated EPS of Rs.90 can be exceeded if DIPD success to capitalize opportunity and their started capacity expansions as at planned dates. Q1 & Q2 reflected their previous expansions including high-end product of electrician gloves and Q3 reflect more high-end value added diversified products. They are nicely handling operations under Covid specially manufacturing plants. It ensures that they have energetic management who are focusing and ensuring results oriented plans.

Considering Est EPS and other shares in the market, DIPD is the best investment in CSE. DIPD can reach Rs.600 to Rs.650 by the Jan 20. Further, give a clue for success. All directors in other companies sold shares at the peak. But, DIPD & HAYC directors did not sell and will not sell by considering future potential of these companies specially DIPD. This is the best evidence for the future potential.

Thank you for being kind enough to take your time and share above analysis. Very detailed. Appreciate it.

The last point makes a lot of sense. Directors of Dipped still didn’t sell their shares.

Furthermore, they have more variety in the types of gloves they manufacture. KVAL and TPL are having a good time as well with good prices for their products.

There will be some impact due to vaccines but it will not stop them from being profitable. Clear.
We should also note that they are trading in low P/E compared to CCS too. Which is trading above Rs.600 with very high P/E.

Okay. I am much clear now. Thanks again @WinWin

if vaccine comes then it takes another 2-3 years to come back to normal..


check production capacity.

PPE will need in the future hospital.

if able to use PPE properly in the first cluster this will not happen like this way...

don't worry sri lankan stocks. we able to drag some portion in the world market now. business relation does not fall in one night...  

how come profit for some manufacturer companies here.

think.....

stockback wrote:if vaccine comes then it takes another 2-3 years to come back to normal..


check production capacity.

PPE will need in the future hospital.

if able to use PPE properly in the first cluster this will not happen like this way...

don't worry sri lankan stocks. we able to drag some portion in the world market now. business relation does not fall in one night...  

how come profit for some manufacturer companies here.

think.....

Good points !

once the vaccine is released dipd will grow further.cuz when vaccinating people they won't do it in bare hands they need to wear gloves. until now only patients were treated but after the vaccine release medical authorities will vaccinate a significant portion of the population..THEY WON'T DO IT IN BARE HANDS.so the gloves demand will increase. 

THIS IS JUST A PRACTICAL POINT THAT CAME INTO MY MIND..

comments please?

geesura wrote:once the vaccine is released dipd will grow further.cuz when vaccinating people they won't do it in bare hands they need to wear gloves. until now only patients were treated but after the vaccine release medical authorities will vaccinate a significant portion of the population..THEY WON'T DO IT IN BARE HANDS.so the gloves demand will increase. 

THIS IS JUST A PRACTICAL POINT THAT CAME INTO MY MIND..

comments please?

Interesting point @geesura. They might not use the same product twice if that’s the case. Even if not, there will be stable demand.

geesura wrote:once the vaccine is released dipd will grow further.cuz when vaccinating people they won't do it in bare hands they need to wear gloves. until now only patients were treated but after the vaccine release medical authorities will vaccinate a significant portion of the population..THEY WON'T DO IT IN BARE HANDS.so the gloves demand will increase. 

THIS IS JUST A PRACTICAL POINT THAT CAME INTO MY MIND..

comments please?

no its not a big effect.

the key point is. how much able to drag from the world market at the moment. highly chance to continue with the new demand.

bcz supply in a difficult environment so then has a good advantage in a normal environment.

think normal environment how is their portion in world market now what the portion i mean %, not quantity.

sri lankan manufacture companies got advantage,

US and China Trade war.

I think is the key point.

any ideas...

RCL already got this advantage from US vs China !! Under development stage, most one saw RCL is in cash flow issue , bcz capitalizing huge opportunity. But, will have to wait more time 1 to 2 yrs to see the full benefit with less construction and buting interest for tiles & bath-ware items with COVID.

DIPD is capitalizing this opportunity derived the idea from Mr.D Perera !!

DIPD has good immediate opportunity with USA tariffs and ban for China gloves. DIPD will do this very well than others, bcz market is waiting for them..

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html

"the vaccine could be available in limited use as early as late December and widely available by the third quarter of 2021". - Vaccine will only be widely available by 3rd Q 2021.


Based on current projections, Pfizer and BioNTech expect to produce up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020, and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021.The vaccine requires two doses per person.


1.3 Bil Vaccine doses can vaccinate 650 million (1300 Mil / 2 doses) people in 2021. US + Europe alone population is 900 million.

I really hope the vaccine can be introduced faster, but as i see, DIPD should perform similar to last quarter for the next two quarters.

As highlighted by members here, so many positives for DIPD even if vaccine produce, delivered within next 5/6 month, which is highly unlikely 

As per news success rate is around 90%, who knows they may go for further tests

We are hearing over 150 vaccine news even from March, but nothin materialize yet

As a minimum, next 1 year there shouldn't be any issues with DIPD earning

Asia Security report issued with the target price of Rs 560 (this is minimum)

I noted peoples are gearing to buy hotel shares from tomorrow, how foolish
Hotel  loss for at least next 5/6 months but manipulation of share can happen and this could drag even DIPD price temporarily down