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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » EXPERT CHRONICLE™ » EPF/ETF - Poor invesment strategies...

EPF/ETF - Poor invesment strategies...

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Think9


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I always had this question. Do the EPF funds get invested in good shares?? and do the department analyst do proper study in stock before buying ??

EPF/ETF are people`s money. I think they have done so much mistakes before and im quite shocked who advice to buy.

i can remember, EPF bought huge qty of SPEN at 220, then 180 level , again 167 , latest 135 . And now its 134.. Why such a poor investments ? I mean we all know SPEN and most of the hotels got a higher PE. I mean just using simple ratios anyone can understand that SPEN is over-valued until it falls to 130-135 levels.. How many additional no.of shares EPF would ve got more no of shares, if they bought at 130-140 levels instead of 180-220 levels..

And mind you, EPF invested on GRAN at 220 levels..

Related articles :

http://www.ft.lk/2011/06/29/epf-active-in-sluggish-bourse/

http://www.ft.lk/2011/05/25/epf-buys-1-m-more-shares-of-spence-hotel-holdings/

http://www.ft.lk/2011/04/21/epf-invests-more-in-aitken-spence/



Last edited by Think9 on Wed Jun 29, 2011 9:16 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : spellings)

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Post Sat Jul 02, 2011 12:56 pm by MarketSIRA

@econ wrote:Sri lankan pension funds are governed by Central bank fund managers.
But looking at current deals , they some time invest blindly. They might think that invest in blue chips is OK even those blue chip companies are massively over priced. Good example is pension fund investments in Aitcan spence. If you check any fundemental valuations it is easy to understand that EPF bought aitcan spence shares at very high prices paying high premium.However, there are many fundementallly strong growth potential shares available at lower prices. I think EPF is now trying to get in to management of these compnaies. That may be the reason they pay for premium prices and buy more shares. Good example is commercial bank. Moreover, it is unethical to buy banks shares by pension funds which is managed by central bank fund managers.

Go to Initial Link: http://www.cseleaks.com/2010/12/sri-lanka-will-kick-backs-be-revealed.html

Post Sat Jul 02, 2011 1:32 pm by MarketSIRA

@aladdin wrote:Guys i feel all of u are going on a wrong direction. A fund like EPF is not investing on short or medium. Normally they invest looking at the long run such as 5-10 years of profit realization. In that view what above discussed will not be valid. Many think that the decision made by EPF is wrong because majority is in the set of mind of look at the short run.

But one thing is bit suspicious to me. All the time the seller was same to EPF. May be a core incident. But who knows.

I report u decide.

Some FACTS from Different sources

Links: http://www.asiantribune.com/news/2011/06/15/sri-lanka-epf-buys-richard-pieris-and-dimo-devasurendra-and-thurston-investments

Since January this year, Sri Lanka’s largest Social Security fund EPF managed by Monetary Board of Central Bank under the guidance of Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal had been buying several stakes of listed companies in the island nation held by either Arjun Aloysius led Perpetual Capital or stakes held by Ajith Devasurendra according to market sources.

It was also evident in May 2011 that Employees provident Fund (EPF) and the Laugfs Gas (LGL) have emerged among top seven shareholders of Ceylon Grain Elevators (GRAN), replacing Perpetual Capital Ltd and Perpetual Asset Management Ltd, in the latest quarterly financials of the company. Subsequently as per financials, several shareholders such as Aviva NDB Insurance, Symphony Capital and Ajith Devasurendra had disappeared from the top 20 shareholders list of GRAN whilst back in 11 February 2011 it was reported that Perpetual Capital, an investment fund, has bought 10.3% stake in Grain Elevators belonging to Singapore’s Prima Group on February 10, a move that reflected bullishness in the food and beverage sector of the country.

On the contrary EPF has stepped up buying further into Sri Lanka’s premier blue chip John Keells Holdings (JKH) at recent times by picking up a bulk of the 2.36 million shares of JKH which traded for Rs. 656 million whilst on March this year after collecting over one million JKH shares. EPF also bought 1 million Royal Ceramics shares for Rs. 150 million on the Mid March. On April this year with a bullish outlook in equity investments, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) picked up 1 million shares of Aitken Spence (SPEN) for Rs. 165.5 million whilst the seller was Carson Cumberbatch Group (CARS).

Sri Lanka’s largest social security fund EPF that has working population’s savings exceeding Rs.900 billion had been aggressively investing in Sri Lanka’s capital market since May last year when it began investing in Colombo’s five start hotel Galadari becoming the largest institutional shareholder of the company. Thereafter EPF had been actively buying large stakes in premier licensed commercial bank’s of the island nation and EPF is the sixth largest shareholder in Seylan Bank PLC (SEYB) having 5.16%, seventh largest shareholder of DFCC Bank having 4.76%, second largest shareholder of Sampath Bank (SAMP) having 8.25% and second largest shareholder of HNB having over 7% and has over 9% of Commercial Bank of Ceylon (COMB)

Link: http://print.dailymirror.lk/business/127-local/48668.html

Since early 2011, Central Finance (CFIN) shares shot up over Rs.1700 (per share) due to high illiquidity, and market sources speculated about a possible takeover by a group of investors led by Perpetual Capital and Browns fame. Meanwhile, Central Bank’s Monetary Board managed country’s largest pension fund, EPF on Tuesday bought a 2% stake in CFIN just two days before CFIN’s announcement of share subdivision. Market analysts are also of the views that EPF has been actively following several major quantity buyouts of listed companies by Arjun Aloysius led Perpetual Capital and Browns fame since early this year that came in to light after EPF bought major stakes of Laugfs Gas (LGL) and Grain Elevators (GRAN). EPF recently bought stakes in Richard Pieris from Ajith Devasurendra.

Link: http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t5102-share-investments-by-epf

Link: http://www.ft.lk/2011/06/29/epf-active-in-sluggish-bourse/

Link: http://srilankastockpicks.blogspot.com/2011/03/perpetual-capital-buys-9-of-central.html

Link: http://print.dailymirror.lk/business/127-local/43663.html

Employees provident Fund (EPF) and the Laugfs Gas (LGL) have emerged among top seven shareholders of Ceylon Grain Elevators (GRAN), replacing Perpetual Capital Ltd and Perpetual Asset Management Ltd, the latest quarterly financials outline.

As per March quarter financial accounts of GRAN, EPF has become the fourth largest shareholder of the company holding 8.4 percent (5, 004,900 shares), while shareholder Laugfs Gas becoming the sixth largest shareholder of GRAN with 1.67 percent (1 million shares) of the company.

The accounts also give a hint from whom the two entities have bought shares. Perpetual Capital stake that was 2.134 million shares as at 31 December 2011, has dipped to 693,800 shares on 31 March 2011, and Perpetual Asset Management’s 1.2 million shares had dropped to 456,600 shares as at 31 March 2011.

Meanwhile, as per financials, several shareholders such as Aviva NDB Insurance, Symphony Capital and Ajith Devasurendra had disappeared from the top 20 shareholders list of GRAN whilst Nimal Perera, Guantum Capital and S.N.M. Rishan have reached the Top 20 list.

Back in 11 February 2011 it was reported that Perpetual Capital, an investment fund, has bought 10.3% stake in Grain Elevators belonging to Singapore’s Prima Group on February 10, a move that reflected bullishness in the food and beverage sector of the country. Meanwhile, reports said that analysts speculated part of the increase was due to the interest by Perpetual whilst high networth investor Ishara Nanayakkara of LOLC-Browns fame had picked up around 2.5% stake, and top investor Nimal Perera collecting 1%.


Analyse!!!!!




Post Sat Jul 02, 2011 3:43 pm by Quibit

Latest Annual Report of EPF
http://www.epf.lk/Publications/Annual-Report.pdf

Post Sat Jul 02, 2011 4:02 pm by gann

@Think9 wrote:And this s what Dr.harsha de silva has to say-

http://www.ft.lk/2011/04/01/dr-harsha-de-silva-challenges-central-bank-on-epf%E2%80%99s-investments/


[mention][/mention] wrote:
So, what exactly are the regulations and professional guidelines in this ‘Investment Policy Statement’ with regard to buying and selling shares of listed commercial banks? It is very clear. It says: “The Fund cannot invest in stocks of the banking and financial sector since the Monetary Board regulates both EPF and banks and financial institutions.”

The key point is Dr. Harsha is raising a serious insider dealing going on by EPF investing in commercial banks. I didnt think about it that way before. Hats off to Dr. Harsha. This gets further complicated if EPF invest in companies that have banking stocks lol! Anthojata Bahi Jata

Think9

Post Sat Jul 02, 2011 8:01 pm by Think9

First of all I must say, I used to share my thoughts in invest***.lk but i stopped after a while bcoz i couldnt have opinions, and contribution from any professional investors and all I saw is discussions about BFL, PCH, GREG,, TWOD. And none of the good topics didnt managed to go far. So i would like to thank SLequity for keeping the quality of the site which is not an easy job.

secondly i would to thank all senior ppl who have shares their ideas and made this look a valuable conversation and making it able to look from different angles.

@quibit : great thing that u brought in the annual report into the discussion.

Invest income from TBs and shares have drop from 2008 to 2009. Thy ve invested more in TBs and TB % was quite high in 2009 than 2008 (specially in corporate bonds due to the post war situation ). so how come it ws a drop ? And its quite interesting to c the 2010 annual report.. how come its late if the financial yr end is Dec. : O



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Post Sat Jul 02, 2011 8:38 pm by Rajaraam

Pl. do not misunderstand me. Why should we worry about EPF investment decisions? I realy cant understand. There is a management body in EPF and may be they are looking for long term benefits rather than earning quick money. Anyway that is their business and I personnaly think that EPF involvement in share market has helped in large extend to prevent any disaster under present weak market conditions. Let EPF Management to handle their investment decisions and we can look after our interest.

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Post Mon Jul 04, 2011 1:03 am by Business Basil

@Rajaraam wrote:Pl. do not misunderstand me. Why should we worry about EPF investment decisions? I realy cant understand. There is a management body in EPF and may be they are looking for long term benefits rather than earning quick money. Anyway that is their business and I personnaly think that EPF involvement in share market has helped in large extend to prevent any disaster under present weak market conditions. Let EPF Management to handle their investment decisions and we can look after our interest.

Poor working population's savings making Cabba a millionaire....understand the 'Kick Backs'.

That is why work force in the country should worry. Exclamation

Slstock

Post Mon Jul 04, 2011 4:38 am by Slstock

@Business Basil wrote:
@Rajaraam wrote:Pl. do not misunderstand me. Why should we worry about EPF investment decisions? I realy cant understand. There is a management body in EPF and may be they are looking for long term benefits rather than earning quick money. Anyway that is their business and I personnaly think that EPF involvement in share market has helped in large extend to prevent any disaster under present weak market conditions. Let EPF Management to handle their investment decisions and we can look after our interest.

Poor working population's savings making Cabba a millionaire....understand the 'Kick Backs'.

That is why work force in the country should worry. Exclamation

I still stand by what I said about EPF Overall management of funds and the returns we got in the past. But yes Kick backs are something to be concerned about.

I am waiting for EPF annual report for 2010 to see for more details of their policies and what they say. I am wondering whether to write to some CB/EPF big shot about more trasparency as it is a public fund.

econ

Post Mon Jul 04, 2011 6:17 am by econ

Under current administration, every thing seems to be highly politicized.
It seems their main priority is not maximized workers future benefits but short term benefits for government. Good example is private sector pension bill that was introduced recently.

salt

Post Thu Jul 07, 2011 5:33 pm by salt

@Academic wrote:
@duke wrote:I think holding companies should go around a PE ratio of 10 because they're just a holding company. That means it should come around half its current value.

Yes. Largely diversified holdings should be subjected to "Conglomeration Discount" in calculating their fair value. Thus PE should be lower.

This is not happening in Sri Lanka.

One thing, domestic market is too small for any product speclized comopny

UKboy

Post Sun Sep 04, 2011 12:20 am by UKboy

Just wanted to give my utmost thank to all of you guys (Think9, Duke, Chinwi, Academic, Aladdin, Xhora, econ, slstock, factfinder, Moneylover etc) who involved in this discussion. This is undoubtedly one of the best discussions I ever seen in this forum.
Well done guys. This is one of the very very few topics I read more than once & 100% deserved to be in the expert chamber...
( 1st time in my history I used all available + reps in a single day and these guys deserved it.)

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Post Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:26 am by enthush

@xhora wrote:It was proven in a TV political discussion that when last year stock market grown about 90+% return on investments to EPF fund was only about 4% what a waste.


"Members of the Employment Provident Fund (EPF) will be paid the highest first ever interest rate of 13.75 percent, for their contribution with effect from 2009, the Labour Relations and Productivity Promotion Ministry announced.
This is a 0.55 percent increase above the previous rate of 13.20 percent for 2008."

know what ur writing before u get along the stream of misleading public..

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Post Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:14 pm by enthush

@Think9 wrote:@ eeyohan : I think i ve to teach u how EPF and ETF works until we get retire.. but well........... u knw! i cant waste time..

but just an economy lesson :

when you HOLD.

Hold = saving = economy leakage. When economies is not circulating well, the growth is pretty less. That wats happening in developing countries. so it consumers / gvmnts resposibility to make sure things money get circulated .

example : By the time SPEN reach 300 , I can buy and sell in different levels and gain more than 1000% profits.. and if the gvt has done the investments properly Im sure they would ve developed the country more. At least to cover the huge loss gvt get from water board .lol. but in terms of business, i called it " Poor investment strategies " .


well in my point of view..its not economics that matters here the most, but fund management basics. according to u entire funds need to be managed in the form of a trading portfolio and for a retirement scheme i believe its a joke.EPF maintaing a trading portfolio for about Rs.100 billion and engaging in daily trading to seek gains as u suggested, will rock the CSE every now n then.needless to say if thats the case, they can easily make the market while retail investors will have no option but take the prices.
besides no retirement funds maintian a full trading portfolio. cos the theory has it, long term high return. if pension funds manage the funds the way u ask them to, CSE will be hell for retialers so will the return be for memebrs of the funds.

Think9

Post Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:22 pm by Think9

you have taken it in a wrong way.. im not sayin for a trading portfolio. you just have gone little bit out of the topic.

I`m sayin even a company or a institute invest on shares they should ve a proper plan. coz ASI is a curve . curve reach high and again fall down after 2 or 3 year or like that.. then again up.. so when your investing need to be much careful about the price of the share in particular and whats the stage of the ASI cycle.. If both indicated green that's the best or either one them should be there.

Anyway if u have time download SLIC annual report and check their gain on invest income and the shares they have invested. So far SLIC is one of ma best strategic companies when it come for investing.

Recent investments of SLIC : HVA / TESS . ..

Im not sayin EPF doing bad but they couldn have invested more wisely bn one of the institutes hold huge bulk of money. but one thing to say!! ! there new investments re quite impressive.


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Post Sun Sep 18, 2011 6:59 pm by WildBear

@salt wrote:
@Academic wrote:
@duke wrote:I think holding companies should go around a PE ratio of 10 because they're just a holding company. That means it should come around half its current value.

Yes. Largely diversified holdings should be subjected to "Conglomeration Discount" in calculating their fair value. Thus PE should be lower.

This is not happening in Sri Lanka.

One thing, domestic market is too small for any product speclized comopny

conglomeration discount is widely considered as a market inefficiency, that means it should not really exist. Even if there is such a thing,it should be around 5% discount.

I think CSE is still too small and immature to apply all these sophisticated theorems...

investor1984

Post Sun Sep 18, 2011 8:05 pm by investor1984

@aladdin wrote:Guys i feel all of u are going on a wrong direction. A fund like EPF is not investing on short or medium. Normally they invest looking at the long run such as 5-10 years of profit realization. In that view what above discussed will not be valid. Many think that the decision made by EPF is wrong because majority is in the set of mind of look at the short run.

But one thing is bit suspicious to me. All the time the seller was same to EPF. May be a core incident. But who knows.

I report u decide.

Agreed , as far as we ( private sector worker ) contribute to these funds they dont have to worry , anyway the return they give to us are very dismal, so they dont have to worry about high returns ( typical government work ) , by the way we should give credit to these 2 funds as i think they saved the market from serious crashes , central bank is using these 2 funds as tools to calm the market when it is on verge of collapsing .

soileconomy

Post Sun Sep 18, 2011 8:18 pm by soileconomy

Y we are talking about negative investments .EPF has already doubled some of their investments .May be as a whole they are in a very safe zone.No one can make profits 100%.
When things go wrong we talk a lot and when they are right no one cares

Think9

Post Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:05 am by Think9

fire/http://www.ft.lk/2011/10/12/epf-buying-laugfs-no-smoke-without-fire/

Think9

Post Tue Oct 25, 2011 10:29 am by Think9

http://www.ft.lk/2011/10/25/laugfs-gas-has-last-laugh-at-epf/

lol..

Think9

Post Thu Oct 27, 2011 2:37 pm by Think9

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sinhala/news/story/2011/10/111026_share_market.shtml

""the employees' provident fund (EPF) lost nearly SLR 30 million ($270,000) as a result of such deals in the marker by the government. ""


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Post Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:07 pm by WildBear

Interesting abstracts of a research analysis done by Verité Research on investment of Sri Lankan State controlled pension funds-



ETF has made a return of 26 percent on equity investments while EPF returns stand below 4 percent an Analysis by Verité Research shows that Employee’s Provident Fund’s (EPF)management of equity investments have made low returns in comparison to stock market growth for the corresponding period and in comparison to returns made by the Employees Trust Fund (ETF).

EPF’s investments in the stock exchange has underperformed the All Share Price Index (ASPI), and earned only one-fourth of what it would have earned if the same investment had been placed with the usual no-risk-low-return government securities, where 95percent of the EPF funds are placed.

The investment of the EPF funds is under the supervision of the Monetary Board of the Central Bank.

Historically, the main investments by the Fund have been in Government Securities. This is not without its problems as the EPF has been used as a cheap source of borrowing for the government, at the expense of reasonable returns for the workers.

A study by the Institute of Policy Studies titled “Designing Retirement-Income-Security Arrangements:

Theory, Issues and Applications to Sri Lanka” (de Mel, 2000)showed that the EPF returns had been negative in real terms over a workers career.In 2009, the Monetary Board invested 97.1 percent of the EPF Fund in Government Securities, with a return of 15.70percent, while in 2010, it invested 94.1percent with a return of 14.60 percent. At the same time there was a move to increase the investment in the stock exchange.

In 2009, only 1.3% of the Fund (Rs.9.8 billion), was invested in equities; but in 2010, there was a four-fold increase with 5% of the fund (Rs.43.7 billion) being invested in equities.

The Central Bank has explained this increased investment in equities on the basis that there was a need to diversify investments as returns to government securities were on the decline. The explanation, however, is contradicted by the outcome: the return to the EPF’s investment in equities in 2009 was 3.53percent and in 2010 it was 3.81percent.

If the same investments had been kept in short and long term government securities at the average yield, the EPF would have earned almost 4 times as much it did by investing in equities. In 2009 post civil war, the Sri Lankan stock exchange boomed, and in 2010 it became the best performing stock exchange in the world. The percentage increase of the ASPI in these two years was 125percent and96percent. In that light, how the EPF managed to garner returns of just 3.53percent and 3.81 percentis puzzling in the extreme, and should require a public accounting.

The Employees Trust Fund (ETF), which is managed by the Commissioner of Labour, has also made investments in equities. In contrast to the EPF’s return of 3.81percent the ETF made a return of 26percent on their investment in 2010.The loss to workers as a result of mismanagement of the fund’s investments in equities can be calculated at Rs. 71.2 billion in 2010 alone. More than the absolute amount, the scale of loss is a cause of concern. Where the quantum of investment had an expected market return 73.9 billion based on the ASPI of the stock exchange in 2010, the EPF earned only 1.7 billion: an adverse ratio of 43:1 (that is, if EPF had simply distributed its investment proportionately across all shares in the stock market without any thought or analysis, it would have earned 43 times more than it actually earned with its expert investment decisions).

The stock market is what economists call a “constant sum game”.

That is,the total long term benefits available from the stock market are equal to the actual increase in dividends fromthe underlying stocks. All deviations from this underlying increase in value are “zero sum”: that is, one person’s loss is another person’s gain. Therefore, the huge underperformance of the EFP investment is not without beneficiaries.

http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2012/01/29/fin01.asp

Redbulls

Post Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:09 pm by Redbulls

There are some news about EPF investments in CSE.
Now do we can think they have good statergy?

Monster

Post Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:18 pm by Monster

@Think9 wrote:http://www.ft.lk/2011/10/25/laugfs-gas-has-last-laugh-at-epf/

lol..
LGL voting share is currently trading at around Rs 24 - Rs 26. Unrealized loss from this transaction is nearly 50% from this transaction, which is around 800 million. Twisted Evil

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Post Sun Feb 19, 2012 10:01 pm by thighrokker

EPF/ETF - Poor invesment strategies...  - Page 3 Sunday11

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Post Sun Feb 19, 2012 10:15 pm by Fresher

EPF had entered at a wrong time into those investments. As a very long term fund, it can hold onto these for quite a long time.
Agreed that the unrealized loss is huge and whether price will reach previous levels or not is a doubt. But one has to remember it has made a lot of money as well.

I think everyone is talking about it's losses just like people complain about their losses but keep quiet and enjoy when they have a good time with rising prices.

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Post Sun Feb 19, 2012 10:34 pm by aj

Remember what happened to the rupee value. The central bank were defending the currency with foreign reserves. But you can't do that every day, every week, every month. There is a limit. So what happens when the EPF buying stops...
Anyway who cares about the pension money of the fools.

econ

Post Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:56 am by econ

we need independent central bank. current central bank under kabral is just a another government department.

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Post Mon Feb 20, 2012 9:54 am by WildBear

@econ wrote:we need independent central bank. current central bank under kabral is just a another government department.
Yes, now we have come to the real point. Kabral is a chartered accountant by precession. He may be suitable to be come the auditor general, but sure not to be the head of central bank. Sri Lanka has suffered and suffering a lot with wrong people in wrong position.central Bank governor should be derived within the bank staff it self or with experience in a body like IMF.He should be an economist rather than a accountant.what to do, poor Sri Lanka
,
Sad

rijayasooriya

Post Mon Feb 20, 2012 12:46 pm by rijayasooriya

අර්ථසාධක අරමුදල්
කොටස්‌ වෙළෙඳපොළේ ආයෝජනය කළේ නෑ

- මහ බැංකු අධිපති කියයි



ශ්‍යාම් නුවන් ගනේවත්ත

පසුබෑමට ලක්‌ වී ඇති කොටස්‌ වෙළෙඳපොළ බේරා ගැනීමේ අරමුණෙන් සේවක අර්ථසාධක අරමුදල්, කොළඹ කොටස්‌ වෙළෙඳපොළේ ආයෝජනය නොකළ බව ද එය මුළුමනින්ම අසත්‍ය චෝදනාවක්‌ බව ද ශ්‍රී ලංකා මහ බැංකුවේ අධිපති අජිත් නිවාඩ් කබ්රාල් මහතා ඊයේ (19 දා) "දිවයින" ට පැවසීය.

සුදුසු ආයෝජන තීරණ මත අර්ථසාධක අරමුදල් කොටස්‌ වෙළෙඳපොළේ ආයෝජනය කරන්නේ එම අරමුදලේ සාමාජිකයන්ට ඉහළ ප්‍රතිලාභ ලාබදීමට බව ද මහ බැංකු අධිපතිවරයා අවධාරණය කළේය.

කොටස්‌ වෙළෙඳපොළ බේරාගන්න අර්ථසාධක අරමුදලේ සල්ලි යොදන බවට මහ බැංකුවට නැගී ඇති චෝදනාව පිළිබඳව "දිවයින" කළ විමසුමකට පිළිතුරු දෙමින් මහ බැංකු අධිපතිවරයා මේ බව කීවේය.

"මේක සම්පූර්ණ අසත්‍ය චෝදනාවක්‌. නියමිත වෙලාවේදී අපි කොටස්‌ මිලදී ගැනීම සහ විකිණීම කරනවා. සමහර කොටස්‌ දිගුකාලීන ආයෝජන තීරණ මත වගේම තවත් සමහර කොටස්‌ කෙටිකාලීනව ගනුදෙනු කිරීමේ අරමුණෙන් මිලදී ගන්නවා. අපේ ඉහළ දැනුමක්‌ තිබෙන ආයෝජන උපදේශකයන් විසින් එම ආයෝජන තීරණ ගන්නවා. ඒක කරන්නේ පසුබෑමට ලක්‌වී ඇති කොටස්‌ වෙළෙඳපොළට තල්ලුවක්‌ දෙන්න නොවේ. මිල වැටිච්ච වෙලාවෙදී කොටස්‌ ගන්න ඕන. එය නුවණට හුරු කටයුත්තක්‌ බව ද මහ බැංකු අධිපති අජිත් නිවාඩ් කබ්රාල් මහතා තවදුරටත් "දිවයින" ට කීවේය.


http://www.divaina.com/2012/02/20/news32.html

avatar

Post Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:02 am by enthush

@WildBear wrote:Interesting abstracts of a research analysis done by Verité Research on investment of Sri Lankan State controlled pension funds-



ETF has made a return of 26 percent on equity investments while EPF returns stand below 4 percent an Analysis by Verité Research shows that Employee’s Provident Fund’s (EPF)management of equity investments have made low returns in comparison to stock market growth for the corresponding period and in comparison to returns made by the Employees Trust Fund (ETF).

EPF’s investments in the stock exchange has underperformed the All Share Price Index (ASPI), and earned only one-fourth of what it would have earned if the same investment had been placed with the usual no-risk-low-return government securities, where 95percent of the EPF funds are placed.

The investment of the EPF funds is under the supervision of the Monetary Board of the Central Bank.

Historically, the main investments by the Fund have been in Government Securities. This is not without its problems as the EPF has been used as a cheap source of borrowing for the government, at the expense of reasonable returns for the workers.

A study by the Institute of Policy Studies titled “Designing Retirement-Income-Security Arrangements:

Theory, Issues and Applications to Sri Lanka” (de Mel, 2000)showed that the EPF returns had been negative in real terms over a workers career.In 2009, the Monetary Board invested 97.1 percent of the EPF Fund in Government Securities, with a return of 15.70percent, while in 2010, it invested 94.1percent with a return of 14.60 percent. At the same time there was a move to increase the investment in the stock exchange.

In 2009, only 1.3% of the Fund (Rs.9.8 billion), was invested in equities; but in 2010, there was a four-fold increase with 5% of the fund (Rs.43.7 billion) being invested in equities.

The Central Bank has explained this increased investment in equities on the basis that there was a need to diversify investments as returns to government securities were on the decline. The explanation, however, is contradicted by the outcome: the return to the EPF’s investment in equities in 2009 was 3.53percent and in 2010 it was 3.81percent.

If the same investments had been kept in short and long term government securities at the average yield, the EPF would have earned almost 4 times as much it did by investing in equities. In 2009 post civil war, the Sri Lankan stock exchange boomed, and in 2010 it became the best performing stock exchange in the world. The percentage increase of the ASPI in these two years was 125percent and96percent. In that light, how the EPF managed to garner returns of just 3.53percent and 3.81 percentis puzzling in the extreme, and should require a public accounting.

The Employees Trust Fund (ETF), which is managed by the Commissioner of Labour, has also made investments in equities. In contrast to the EPF’s return of 3.81percent the ETF made a return of 26percent on their investment in 2010.The loss to workers as a result of mismanagement of the fund’s investments in equities can be calculated at Rs. 71.2 billion in 2010 alone. More than the absolute amount, the scale of loss is a cause of concern. Where the quantum of investment had an expected market return 73.9 billion based on the ASPI of the stock exchange in 2010, the EPF earned only 1.7 billion: an adverse ratio of 43:1 (that is, if EPF had simply distributed its investment proportionately across all shares in the stock market without any thought or analysis, it would have earned 43 times more than it actually earned with its expert investment decisions).

The stock market is what economists call a “constant sum game”.

That is,the total long term benefits available from the stock market are equal to the actual increase in dividends fromthe underlying stocks. All deviations from this underlying increase in value are “zero sum”: that is, one person’s loss is another person’s gain. Therefore, the huge underperformance of the EFP investment is not without beneficiaries.

http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2012/01/29/fin01.asp


oh what a joke is this?? who writes these rubbish articles?????
problem in this country is journalists can write any nonsense and be untouchable.

ETF is talking in terms of unrealized gains which when i worked out on EPF portfolio is around 43%.
end of 2010 market value was about 60 B and cost about 40 B.

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