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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » EXPERT CHRONICLE™ » Sri Lanka's GDP to grow by 7% in 2021 - HSBC Global Research

Sri Lanka's GDP to grow by 7% in 2021 - HSBC Global Research

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samaritan

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Sri Lanka's GDP to grow by 7% in 2021 - HSBC Global Research Impressive

A research report published by HSBC Global Research last December expects Sri Lankan GDP to grow by 7% y-o-y in 2021, largely due to base effects since they estimated a 5% drop in GDP during 2020, new President of the National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka (NCCSL) Nandika Buddhipala told the 62nd AGM at Kingsbury Hotel on Tuesday.


This report predicted that Sri Lanka should bounce back impressively. This will be the biggest upgrade to their forecasts. Mainland China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Korea, as well as Sri Lanka, have seen among the fastest increase in shipments, with others lagging the recovery.
The CBSL policy rate cut by 250 bps, bringing down Standard Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) to 5.50% has been fully transmitted through lending rates easing off by 280 bps during the same period. They are of the view that public debt sustainability is amongst the biggest risks for Sri Lanka for the next five years.

Sri Lanka's GDP to grow by 7% in 2021 - HSBC Global Research GDP-660

Rating agencies including Fitch and Moody’s predict growth. Fitch in September 2020 estimated GDP growth for 2021 as 4.7%, whereas for 2020 they estimated a negative growth of 3.7%. Moody’s on September 29, 2020, estimated GDP growth in 2021 to be 3.6% whereas in 2020 they estimated negative growth of 3.2%. All rating reports expressed their concerns regarding Lankan debt sustainability and the government revenue collection target.


The Sri Lankan economy was gradually recovering from the severe impact of the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks in 2019 when the country was hit with the global pandemic.


The situation was made worse with increasing numbers of Sri Lankan employees overseas wanting to return home. The government was forced to limit imports to save the outflow of USD. The country has a considerable amount of loan repayments during the year 2020 and moving forward.

Buddhipala said that as a strategy to face the difficult situation the Central Bank introduced many measures. The regulator acted to reduce interest rates, enhance market liquidity, manage foreign exchange flows, maintain exchange rate stability, preserve international reserves, maintain the financial system stability, enhance credit flows, and ensure uninterrupted currency operations.

“Lower interest rates reduced the burden on entrepreneurs who were facing various difficulties, while announced debt moratoria and working capital loan schemes provided concessions to businesses and individuals.”
[url=http://www.dailynews.lk/2021/01/29/business/240107/impressive-sri-lankan-bounce-back#:~:text=A research report published by,the 62nd AGM at Kingsbury]http://www.dailynews.lk/2021/01/29/business/240107/impressive-sri-lankan-bounce-back#:~:text=A%20research%20report%20published%20by,the%2062nd%20AGM%20at%20Kingsbury[/url]


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Samaritan 
Can we resume uptrend to break 9000 on Monday??
Thank You

@Kipling wrote:Samaritan 
Can we resume uptrend to break 9000 on Monday??
Thank You
Latest by Tuesday and the very same crowd that pulled out money today will be back again when emotions cool down. Never let emotions take control of decision making. Food for thought!

Kipling likes this post

Samaritan 
What was the emotional issue? Expo Eps improved to 2.33 besting by 0.01 a record quarter.

@Kipling wrote:Samaritan 
What was the emotional issue? Expo Eps improved to 2.33 besting by 0.01 a record quarter.
I was referring to overall market decline coupled with some technical glitch encountered in certain online platform.

Do you think expo declines absolutely unwarranted & bad for confidence.

@Kipling wrote:Do you think expo declines absolutely unwarranted & bad for confidence.
It seems there had been profit taking. Anyway, i am confident that the market will bounce back on Monday.

Kipling likes this post

Samaritan 
9000 demolition on Monday & onto 10,000 by mid February realistic?
Thank You.

Win Win likes this post

Now that month end settlements are over market should bounce back. Few good financials are out and the prices are declining... 😳
ASPI would start the journey back to 10k. The profit taking and market correction was good... everything was heated at high RSI levels.

samaritan and Kipling like this post

@Kipling wrote:Samaritan 
9000 demolition on Monday & onto 10,000 by mid February realistic?
Thank You.
If ASI breaks 9000 on Monday its possible to reach 10,000 by mid February.

Kipling likes this post

@RJ1010 wrote:Now that month end settlements are over market should bounce back. Few good financials are out and the prices are declining... 😳
ASPI would start the journey back to 10k. The profit taking and market correction was good... everything was heated at high RSI levels.
RJ
I read on a Twitter A whale had given following targets to a Finance person. 
Mid February 10,000
End March 12,500
End June 15,000
End Year 20,000
He has nearly asked What are you smoking. I can guess the whale. 
Your view on these numbers. 
Thank You.

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