Analysis of Covid-19 official data indicate that Sri Lanka actually facing the second wave of the Covid-19 virus and not third wave as many people believe. (Figure-1) World is going through the second Covid-19 wave due to the spike in the Covid-19 cases in Asia due to escalation of cases in India after the eruption in Whuan China in December 2019.
If Asia is facing the first wave after the eruption in Whuan China, then Sri Lanka is still likely to be in the Covid-19 first wave in Asia due to increase of cases in India which is neighbouring Sri Lanka. (Figure-2). Therefore the Covid-19 wave Sri Lanka is currently experiencing can be last and the final Covid-19 spike that can take place in Sri Lanka before resumption of all economic activities under the new norm.
Sri Lanka COVID-19 Wave
As can be seen in the Figure-3 Covid-19 Waves generally last for a period of 6 month with the reduced period in the second wave due to experience and adoptability of the wold population due to awareness campaigns carried out by the world health organisation.
According to the analyse the the current Covid-19 wave is likely to end by August 2021 with likelihood of Sri Lanka reopening all economic activities by August 2021. (Figure-1)
Further new Covid-19 waves could occur due to spike in cases any particular continent or country which may affect overall reduction in Covid-19 cases but ultimate recovery can take place only upon full vaccination of the world population.
World COVID-19 Wave