Stay Away from CSE :evil:

atuts · 1 Stay Away from CSE :evil: Sun Mar 27, 2022 8:57 am

atuts

Stock Analytic

Posts : 19
Equity Stars : 889
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2022-03-17

I am investing in CSE past 10 years. Most of time i am optimistic. But not this time Sad

sri lanka print trillion of rs in last 6 month. High inflation. Definitely we are expecting some interest rate hike (that also impact CSE). But that also not enough to control the inflation.

For foreign/Local investor expecting more sales in coming week following reason:

1. Dollar exchange rate will be crash further ( rumors going on banking sector 500rs per dollar)
2. Fed may increase interest rate further.
3. Sri lankan ruppe depreciated/crash than stock return , so may going to safe haven investment like gold , realestate.
4. many retail investor sell due to high inflation.
5. there is poltical and economy unstable. so not able to attract new investors also.
6. If country is in crisis, most of sector will be crash further. So not a good options to invest. Some body argue LOLC, EXPO has diversify portfolio. but they also not exception for this scenario. especially fuel price hike directly impact the EXPO.

Safeguard your money guys in this crash !!! hope everthing will be alright !!

Gowri123 · 2 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Sun Mar 27, 2022 11:39 am

Gowri123

Senior Equity Analytic

Posts : 97
Equity Stars : 1387
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2021-01-21

Are you seriously a CSE investor for past 10 years? It's hard to believe thought as per what you are saying above...

Obviously interest rates will be increased because inflation is going through the roof and we might soon enter the hyperinflation stage...so even if interest rates goes to 15%...with this inflation is over 25% your real return will be in negative.

With inflation soring everyday... only few options are available to protect your monetary value. Real estate gold and stock market.... already gold prices and land prices are going up..but stock market is not.... because of the current economy situation...but I feel soon it will change...we have seen some indication... foreign inflows increased since rupee floated and IMF news and dollar counters are being collected for last few days or so..

Please feel free to study stock market performance in Argentina, Venezuela and Zimbabwe...how they performed during hyper inflation period...

With rupee depreciation not all sectors going to benefit for sure...but there are some will immensely benefit such as dollar earning counters and dollar asset counters...but I agree those counters alone can't run CSE...but those are the best bets for now...for Expo if fuel price hike then obviously freight rates also will move up... Anyway we will get to see in their next report...

Good luck.

D.G.Dayaratne · 3 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:26 am

D.G.Dayaratne

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 2025
Equity Stars : 8788
Reputation : 57
Join date : 2011-12-13
Location : Kotte

Gowri123 wrote:Are you seriously a CSE investor for past 10 years? It's hard to believe thought as per what you are saying above...

Obviously interest rates will be increased because inflation is going through the roof and we might soon enter the hyperinflation stage...so even if interest rates goes to 15%...with this inflation is over 25% your real return will be in negative.

With inflation soring everyday... only few options are available to protect your monetary value. Real estate gold and stock market.... already gold prices and land prices are going up..but stock market is not.... because of the current economy situation...but I feel soon it will change...we have seen some indication... foreign inflows increased since rupee floated and IMF news and dollar counters are being collected for last few days or so..

Please feel free to study stock market performance in Argentina, Venezuela and Zimbabwe...how they performed during hyper inflation period...

With rupee depreciation not all sectors going to benefit for sure...but there are some will immensely benefit such as dollar earning counters and dollar asset counters...but I agree those counters alone can't run CSE...but those are the best bets for now...for Expo if fuel price hike then obviously freight rates also will move up... Anyway we will get to see in their next report...

Good luck.

Reasonable analysis and explanation

rajini · 4 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:23 pm

rajini

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 148
Equity Stars : 1671
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2020-07-27

Real estate are dangerous in crisis situation. We know what happened during 2008 crash in USA.
Best investments are

hotels
plantations
anything that earns dollars

bad investments
Fixed deposits
bonds
houses
apartments
business depends on imports

If you have money buy them directly. If you don't have enough money invest them in stocks earn dollars.

apple · 5 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:30 am

apple

Senior Equity Analytic

Posts : 70
Equity Stars : 1175
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2021-07-19

atuts wrote:I am investing in CSE past 10 years. Most of time i am optimistic. But not this time

sri lanka print trillion of rs in last 6 month. High inflation. Definitely we are expecting some interest rate hike (that also impact CSE). But that also not enough to control the inflation.

For foreign/Local investor expecting more sales in coming week following reason:

1. Dollar exchange rate will be crash further ( rumors going on banking sector 500rs per dollar)
2. Fed may increase interest rate further.
3. Sri lankan ruppe depreciated/crash than stock return , so may going to safe haven investment like gold , realestate.
4. many retail investor sell due to high inflation.
5. there is poltical and economy unstable. so not able to attract new investors also.
6. If country is in crisis, most of sector will be crash further. So not a good options to invest. Some body argue LOLC, EXPO has diversify portfolio. but they also not exception for this scenario. especially fuel price hike directly impact the EXPO.

Safeguard your money guys in this crash !!! hope everthing will be alright !!

Ha ha..This a joke

Hope123 · 6 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:22 pm

Hope123

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 227
Equity Stars : 3511
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2015-08-05

atuts wrote:I am investing in CSE past 10 years. Most of time i am optimistic. But not this time

sri lanka print trillion of rs in last 6 month. High inflation. Definitely we are expecting some interest rate hike (that also impact CSE). But that also not enough to control the inflation.

For foreign/Local investor expecting more sales in coming week following reason:

1. Dollar exchange rate will be crash further ( rumors going on banking sector 500rs per dollar)
2. Fed may increase interest rate further.
3. Sri lankan ruppe depreciated/crash than stock return , so may going to safe haven investment like gold , realestate.
4. many retail investor sell due to high inflation.
5. there is poltical and economy unstable. so not able to attract new investors also.
6. If country is in crisis, most of sector will be crash further. So not a good options to invest. Some body argue LOLC, EXPO has diversify portfolio. but they also not exception for this scenario. especially fuel price hike directly impact the EXPO.

Safeguard your money guys in this crash !!! hope everthing will be alright !!

What you are saying might be true. But, the markets are going through cycles, and it seems ASI has touched down a good zone with today's selling and seems we could see some green days from tomorrow on. Guess we will have some trading opportunities if you follow correct technics.
just a prediction and Not a buy sell recommendation

atuts · 7 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Tue Mar 29, 2022 6:33 pm

atuts

Stock Analytic

Posts : 19
Equity Stars : 889
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2022-03-17

Hi Gowri,

Thanks for your feedback. I am not bear. I am just a ordinary investor like you.

I am still confident in long term investment. we ll face some lagging cycle as per current economic indicator and some insight in banking sector. (Even srilankan banking and financial institute in vulnerable stage)

you have mentioned about inflation and stock market correlation. It correct in long term only. we need to identify other factor like stage of inflation and other econmical factor. If you want to compare Argentina , we need to go 1989-1991 (stagflation) period where current sri lanka economy facing now. If you compare the return during the time , you get to know how is the real pain of stagflation (not exception for US market also). (Inflation 50% Equity return 25 % Argentina today) If it is index going high, it doesnt mean real return.

USD earning and inflation are not correlated. But who know the future of USD also. If china and russia pushing their currency for global trade, USD also vulnerable.

None of us predict the future.

Deversify your portfolio
Long term Investment

Are some of key take away !! keep safe play !!

samaritan · 8 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:03 pm

samaritan

Moderator

Posts : 4126
Equity Stars : 9226
Reputation : 188
Join date : 2015-05-16

Expect some action after IMF meeting. You can expect the unexpected and its no point arguing, if you all know how our market behaves. Smart guys are collecting!

stockback · 9 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:55 pm

stockback

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 2945
Equity Stars : 9044
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-02-19

samaritan wrote:Expect some action after IMF meeting. You can expect the unexpected and its no point arguing, if you all know how our market behaves. Smart guys are collecting!

perfect time for April rise...

what will happen...

atuts · 10 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Fri Apr 01, 2022 8:22 pm

atuts

Stock Analytic

Posts : 19
Equity Stars : 889
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2022-03-17

Last week we show the liquidity in market mainly due to the company credit line pressure and macro econonmy issues. But Actual financial sector numbers are not good shape and it is near default stage. Power crises will be persist until May as official status. it ll be impact usd earning sector also like apparel. Now political instablity also fuel up our economy crises.

This shock was predicted, as long they cover up the real story. mostly next week we may have shorten or freeze CSE trading. (more down will be expected). I did not see this sharp down in my experience. personally lost millions !! keep strong guys !!! only put the money which is not required for at least three years !!! keep in mind our country inflation going in exponential

dayandacool · 11 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Sat Apr 02, 2022 11:53 am

dayandacool

Moderator

Posts : 539
Equity Stars : 2351
Reputation : 11
Join date : 2019-08-26
Location : Colombo

atuts wrote:Last week we show the liquidity in market mainly due to the company credit line pressure and macro econonmy issues. But Actual financial sector numbers are not good shape and it is near default stage. Power crises will be persist until May as official status. it ll be impact usd earning sector also like apparel. Now political instablity also fuel up our economy crises.

This shock was predicted, as long they cover up the real story. mostly next week we may have shorten or freeze CSE trading. (more down will be expected). I did not see this sharp down in my experience. personally lost millions !! keep strong guys !!! only put the money which is not required for at least three years !!! keep in mind our country inflation going in exponential

Not to say I'm a pro at what I do. But I did suggest this in this forum and took my money out in October(and had an ugly conversation with a newbie) stating that in a country run by an incompetent administration, If stock market is the only thing that performs well, that's something dodgy and short lived. Many people here didn't agree and I'm pretty sure there are many still waiting for this market to pick up and run to 14000 and stay there.

Simple thing is that this crisis isn't going to end soon. Not even after this government falls (which I believe is only a matter of time unless they sell half of the country at a cheap price to drag the country's economy for the next 3 years which in any case is a lose lose situation for the country).

And here comes the fake patriots to blast my comment Very Happy

https://www.srilankachronicle.com/t60700-623#403861

Gowri123 · 12 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Sat Apr 02, 2022 3:11 pm

Gowri123

Senior Equity Analytic

Posts : 97
Equity Stars : 1387
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2021-01-21

Hi Dayanda,

Yes, I agree that you said about being a "pro"...no one is perfect...all doing guess work based of various aspects...if someone can predict 100% accurate basics they will be making millions if not billions from share market...

Coming to your point that you said that you have withdrawn all of your money in last October considering the incompetent administration....during that period ASI was just around 10k mark and did you expect ASI would go13.5k?...which is about 3500 ASI points had been appreciated since your exit.

Since power cuts, fuel shortages intensified and social unrests are also on the rise...which hampered the market sentiment...which resulted this steep downfall...this is nothing do with corporate earnings or valuation just purely market sentiment...once government implements IMF program and takes care of power cuts and fuel shortages... market sentiment might change...I'm not saying it will be done right away... might take 3-6 months or more...

So saying reaching 14000 or more is not possible kind of talk is not necessary, might take time though depending on how well government handles the situation that's why always have a long term view when investing in stock market and avoid margin trading as much as possible...

All we can do is remain hopeful...we can only predict based on current country situation and market sentiment...in future anything can happen...we are not "pros" aren't we?

atuts · 13 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Sat Apr 02, 2022 5:34 pm

atuts

Stock Analytic

Posts : 19
Equity Stars : 889
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2022-03-17

I am not saying macro economy issue and market are correlated, but sentiment of investors. There is no time traveler who can predict. But people sentiment may change and market trend may change. There is no regid timeline. It is advisable to stay away from buying (give a time to market correct it ) or selling. Currently we are in stage of bubble bursting as showing the number. It is very good everyone has diversify view and don’t make any personal attack.

dayandacool · 14 Re: Stay Away from CSE :evil: Sun Apr 03, 2022 12:55 am

dayandacool

Moderator

Posts : 539
Equity Stars : 2351
Reputation : 11
Join date : 2019-08-26
Location : Colombo

Gowri123 wrote:Hi Dayanda,

Yes, I agree that you said about being a "pro"...no one is perfect...all doing guess work based of various aspects...if someone can predict 100% accurate basics they will be making millions if not billions from share market...

Coming to your point that you said that you have withdrawn all of your money in last October considering the incompetent administration....during that period ASI was just around 10k mark and did you expect ASI would go13.5k?...which is about 3500 ASI points had been appreciated since your exit.

Since power cuts, fuel shortages intensified and social unrests are also on the rise...which hampered the market sentiment...which resulted this steep downfall...this is nothing do with corporate earnings or valuation just purely market sentiment...once government implements IMF program and takes care of power cuts and fuel shortages... market sentiment might change...I'm not saying it will be done right away... might take 3-6 months or more...

So saying reaching 14000 or more is not possible kind of talk is not necessary, might take time though depending on how well government handles the situation that's why always have a long term view when investing in stock market and avoid margin trading as much as possible...

All we can do is remain hopeful...we can only predict based on current country situation and market sentiment...in future anything can happen...we are not "pros" aren't we?

You all still don't get the bigger picture here right. I took my money out simply looking at the forecasts and constant downgrades made by reputed monetary institutes in the world. You are very concerned about the macro economic facts and figures and financials of a company before you invest in it, but pays very little attention to the place where the business has to operate which is the country in which it operates. Did you go through the IMF report? I have attached the link below for you to read it. It says Default is imminent. and do you know what that sounds like to the businesses and stock market as a whole?

CSE is a place where market drops when they hear a corona outbreak in a fish market. How many index points do u think CSE will fall if they declare we are about to default officially?

You are right, CSE was merely touching 11000 (if my memory serves right) when I quit. How much money did u make on those 3000 odd points? If u made any money, I hope u liquidated them cos if u didn't, well its a sorry story.

were u here in 2011? if u were here, u very well know what fake and projected prosperity means. Did our Stock market reflect the state of affairs in our country's economy when we touched 14000? Answer is No. But is our Stock market now slowly starting to show what we really are? Answer is yes.

I will tell you a basic requirement IMF seeks prior assisting a country monetarily. That is recent Financial history of the country, simply put history of public funds. Now we all know where this is going. If you still don't then I say I withdraw and you win your argument and you are on your way for a dream run in CSE Very Happy

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2022/03/25/Sri-Lanka-2021-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-515737#:~:text=IMF%20Staff%20Country%20Reports&text=Sri%20Lanka's%20access%20to%20international,of%20Sri%20Lanka%20(CBSL).