Stay Away from CSE :evil:

Gowri123 wrote:Are you seriously a CSE investor for past 10 years? It's hard to believe thought as per what you are saying above...

Obviously interest rates will be increased because inflation is going through the roof and we might soon enter the hyperinflation stage...so even if interest rates goes to 15%...with this inflation is over 25% your real return will be in negative.

With inflation soring everyday... only few options are available to protect your monetary value. Real estate gold and stock market.... already gold prices and land prices are going up..but stock market is not.... because of the current economy situation...but I feel soon it will change...we have seen some indication... foreign inflows increased since rupee floated and IMF news and dollar counters are being collected for last few days or so..

Please feel free to study stock market performance in Argentina, Venezuela and Zimbabwe...how they performed during hyper inflation period...

With rupee depreciation not all sectors going to benefit for sure...but there are some will immensely benefit such as dollar earning counters and dollar asset counters...but I agree those counters alone can't run CSE...but those are the best bets for now...for Expo if fuel price hike then obviously freight rates also will move up... Anyway we will get to see in their next report...

Good luck.

Reasonable analysis and explanation

atuts wrote:I am investing in CSE past 10 years. Most of time i am optimistic. But not this time  
  
sri lanka print trillion of rs in last 6 month. High inflation. Definitely we are expecting some interest rate hike (that also impact CSE). But that also not enough to control the inflation. 

For foreign/Local investor expecting more sales in coming week following reason:

1.  Dollar exchange rate will be crash further ( rumors going on banking sector 500rs per dollar)
2.  Fed may increase interest rate further.
3. Sri lankan ruppe depreciated/crash than stock return , so may going  to safe haven investment like gold , realestate.
4. many retail investor sell due to high inflation.
5. there is poltical and economy unstable. so not able to attract new investors also.
6. If country is in crisis, most of sector will be crash further. So not a good options to invest. Some body argue LOLC, EXPO has diversify portfolio. but they also not exception for this scenario. especially fuel price hike directly impact the EXPO.

Safeguard your money guys in this crash !!! hope everthing will be alright !!

atuts wrote:I am investing in CSE past 10 years. Most of time i am optimistic. But not this time  
  
sri lanka print trillion of rs in last 6 month. High inflation. Definitely we are expecting some interest rate hike (that also impact CSE). But that also not enough to control the inflation. 

For foreign/Local investor expecting more sales in coming week following reason:

1.  Dollar exchange rate will be crash further ( rumors going on banking sector 500rs per dollar)
2.  Fed may increase interest rate further.
3. Sri lankan ruppe depreciated/crash than stock return , so may going  to safe haven investment like gold , realestate.
4. many retail investor sell due to high inflation.
5. there is poltical and economy unstable. so not able to attract new investors also.
6. If country is in crisis, most of sector will be crash further. So not a good options to invest. Some body argue LOLC, EXPO has diversify portfolio. but they also not exception for this scenario. especially fuel price hike directly impact the EXPO.

Safeguard your money guys in this crash !!! hope everthing will be alright !!

samaritan wrote:Expect some action after IMF meeting. You can expect the unexpected and its no point arguing, if you all know how our market behaves. Smart guys are collecting!

atuts wrote:Last week we show the liquidity in market mainly due to the company credit line pressure and macro econonmy issues. But Actual financial sector numbers are not good shape and it is near default stage. Power crises will be persist until May as official status. it ll be impact usd earning sector also like apparel. Now political instablity also fuel up our economy crises. 

This shock was predicted, as long they cover up the real story. mostly next week we may have shorten or freeze CSE trading. (more down will be expected). I did not see this sharp down in my experience. personally lost millions !! keep strong guys !!! only put the money which is not required for at least three years !!! keep in mind our country inflation going in exponential

Gowri123 wrote:Hi Dayanda,

Yes, I agree that you said about being a "pro"...no one is perfect...all doing guess work based of various aspects...if someone can predict 100% accurate basics they will be making millions if not billions from share market...

Coming to your point that you said that you have withdrawn all of your money in last October considering the incompetent administration....during that period ASI was just around 10k mark and did you expect ASI would go13.5k?...which is about 3500 ASI points had been appreciated since your exit.

Since power cuts, fuel shortages intensified and social unrests are also on the rise...which hampered the market sentiment...which resulted this steep downfall...this is nothing do with corporate earnings or valuation just purely market sentiment...once government implements IMF program and takes care of power cuts and fuel shortages... market sentiment might change...I'm not saying it will be done right away... might take 3-6 months or more...

So saying reaching 14000 or more is not possible kind of talk is not necessary, might take time though depending on how well government handles the situation that's why always have a long term view when investing in stock market and avoid margin trading as much as possible...

All we can do is remain hopeful...we can only predict based on current country situation and market sentiment...in future anything can happen...we are not "pros" aren't we?