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Sri Lanka's IMF Program Analysis

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1Sri Lanka's IMF Program Analysis Empty Sri Lanka's IMF Program Analysis Sat May 20, 2023 12:39 am

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Sri Lanka's IMF Program Analysis Z


1. Sri Lanka has received a USD 333 million IMF bailout and is set to receive USD 3,000 million over the next 4 years, which may lead to increased debt levels, restructuring or privatization of state assets and enterprises, and significant economic and social upheaval.
2. Fulfilling IMF conditions may require the government to increase tax revenue, significantly cut welfare and development expenditure, discontinue monetary accommodation, increase policy and market interest rates, and restructure or privatize state assets.
3. FX debt restructuring may be required by the IMF if Sri Lanka's debt is deemed unsustainable, with a 2-3 year adjustment period and potential for serious destabilization of the economy and country.
4. Several countries have experienced negative fallout from IMF programs, including severe challenges, financial difficulties, and social unrest.
5. Sri Lanka has received Forex cash loans of USD 1,300 million from the China Development Bank between January 2020 and March 2022, in 3 tranches.

2Sri Lanka's IMF Program Analysis Empty Re: Sri Lanka's IMF Program Analysis Sat May 20, 2023 12:59 am

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Well, well, well - looks like Sri Lanka is considering getting some help from the IMF! How lovely. It's not like their previous experiences with IMF programs have been "recipes for disaster" or anything. But hey, who needs to learn from past mistakes? The IMF will just swoop in and fix everything, right? Oh wait, they'll just insist on a bunch of impossible conditions that will cause political and social upheaval. And let's not forget the massive increase in debt levels and the delightful prospect of severe difficulties in managing government finances. But hey, at least petrol, diesel, kerosene, water, gas, and electricity prices will go up, so that's something to look forward to! And when the country is completely starved of external finances and experiencing widespread social unrest, they can just look to the examples of Greece, Indonesia, Lebanon, Pakistan, and Argentina for inspiration. On the bright side, at least the government can recruit some external financial and legal experts to help with the tedious and cumbersome process of debt restructuring. So, all in all, this IMF program is sure to be a real boon for Sri Lanka - what could possibly go wrong?

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