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Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit

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DeepFreakingValue

DeepFreakingValue
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Aspi_m11

Stock Market investors have yet another opportunity to exit Colombo Stock market after the Covid 19 pandemic which caused economic crisis and sovereign debt default in Sri Lanka prior to the implementation of the IMF proposals and resultant market impact.

Tombstones

- Covid19 Start: February 2020
- Covid19 End: December 2021
- Economic Crisis Start: January 2022
- Debt Default: April 12, 2022
- IMF Staff Level Approval: September 2022
- IMF Board Approval: March 20, 2023
- GOSL Parliament Approval: June 28 2023
- IMF 1st Review: September 2023
- IMF 2nd Review: March 2024

How Stock market reacted to IMF Programme
From September 2021 to Present

The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on March 20, 2023, following discussions that ended on September 1, 2022, with the officials of Sri Lanka on economic developments and policies underpinning the IMF arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on March 6, 2023.

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Cse_co11

IMF program will be subject to semiannual reviews with performance criteria, the MPCC bands, and indicative targets set out in Table 1 attached to this MEFP and Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU).

Completion of the first and second reviews will require observance of the quantitative performance criteria for end-June 2023 and end-December 2023, respectively, as well as continuous performance criteria, as specified in Table 1 attached to this MEFP.

The reviews will also assess progress toward observance of the structural benchmarks specified in Table 2 attached to this MEFP. The first two reviews of the program will take place on or after September 1, 2023 and March 1, 2024, respectively. We request the use of IMF financing for budget support and, in this respect, will finalize a Memorandum of Understanding between the CBSL and the Ministry of Finance on responsibilities for servicing financial obligations to the IMF.

IMF: Future Implications

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Scree333
Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Scree334

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Scree335
Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Scree336

Sri Lanka: Proposed Quantitative Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Scree337


How Covid19 affected Sri Lanka
From: February 2020 to December 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic in Sri Lanka is part of the ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV virus. The first case of the virus in Sri Lanka was confirmed on 27 January 2020, after a 44-year-old Chinese woman from Hubei, China, was admitted to the Infectious Disease Hospital in Angoda, Sri Lanka. As of 1 September 2021, a total of 462,767 COVID-19 cases had been recorded in the country, 386,509 patients had recovered from the disease, and 10,140 patients had died.

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Covid_10

The first reported case involving a Sri Lankan outside the country was reported in Italy on 3 March 2020. As of 23 March 2020, forty-five quarantine centres had been built in the country by the Sri Lanka Army as a preventative measure in an attempt to stop the spread of the pandemic. Nearly 3,500 people were placed under quarantine in 45 quarantine centres, including 31 foreigners from 14 countries. As of 25 March 2020, Sri Lankan authorities tracked down over 14,000 people who had come into contact with identified patients, and ordered those people to self-quarantine. As of 16 April 2020, Sri Lanka was named the 16th highest-risk country for contracting the virus.[9] In April 2020, Sri Lanka's response to the pandemic was ranked as the 9th best in the world.

Although Sri Lanka was successful in handling the first wave of the pandemic, the government's failure to handle the second and the third waves of the pandemic have caused a spike in COVID-19 deaths since November 2020. There was a sudden increase in COVID-19 cases after the relaxation of health restrictions during the Sinhala and Tamil New Year in April 2021. The highly contagious Delta variant has been responsible for the considerably high fatality rate in the country since August 2021. As of August 2021, Sri Lanka became the country with the fourth-largest number of daily deaths in the world by population just behind Georgia, Tunisia, and Malaysia. Government negligence in implementing a lockdown, negligent behaviour of the general public, and teachers' protests have all contributed to the record spike of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country.

On 20 August 2021, government imposed a ten-day lockdown island-wide to curb the spread of COVID-19 cases.[ The decision to lockdown the country came following the immense pressure from the health authorities and the political parties who demanded complete lockdown after Sri Lanka surpassed 1,000 deaths over the course of eight days.It is believed that the COVID-19 cases in the country are underreported by the officials and allegations regarding the manipulation of details regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in the country were also raised.

Some businesses imposed a voluntary lockdown for a period of 10 to 14 days during the early parts of August when the government refused to impose a lockdown due to the worsening situation of the economy. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka raised interest rates in August 2021, and Sri Lanka became the first nation in Asia to tighten the monetary policy during the pandemic era. On 27 August 2021, the government extended the lockdown to 6 September 2021 as the daily death toll surpassed 200 for the first time since the pandemic began.

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Post Mon Jul 03, 2023 2:41 am by God Father

IMF Programme implementations and reforms can cause further dip in the stock market when Cabinet approval is sought for revenue measures to support fiscal consolidation during 2024, in line with program parameters. This is likely to happen by August 2023.

DeepFreakingValue

Post Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:58 am by DeepFreakingValue

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Phonto11

ResearchMan

Post Mon Jul 03, 2023 12:42 pm by ResearchMan

Definitely, there will be opportunities to buy and to  exist  in the CSE. Intelligent market participants have exit strategies.  Investing or trading stocks without a plan could lead to poor results.
 
Behaviour in the CSE is different  from  Pakistan stocks exchange.
 
What happened after the IMF  nesws in the CSE : "buy the rumor, sell the news"
What happened after the IMF  news in Pakistan today : The highest single day increase. KSE=100 index rose by 6%. It triggered a market hall.
 
Coincidence. Tomorrow may be different.

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Post Mon Jul 03, 2023 1:26 pm by celtic tiger

Very good Tech Ana...but I think trend reversal momentum forming : opportunity to enter?

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Post Mon Jul 03, 2023 7:27 pm by D.G.Dayaratne

PL DO THE OPPSIT OF SOME BAD PEOPLE SAY

THEN YOU WILL WIN

Riz123 likes this post

avatar

Post Mon Jul 03, 2023 9:20 pm by Riz123

D.G.Dayaratne wrote:PL DO THE OPPSIT OF SOME BAD PEOPLE SAY

THEN YOU WILL WIN
100% agreed

DeepFreakingValue

Post Tue Jul 04, 2023 10:45 pm by DeepFreakingValue

D.G.Dayaratne wrote:PL DO THE OPPSIT OF SOME BAD PEOPLE SAY

THEN YOU WILL WIN

D.G.Dayaratna

Why are you advising members to BUY when you knew that market is going to reach 10,000 today?
What is the assurance that you give to the investors that they will make profits at prices if they bought today?

Today was the day to sell. Next week may be different.

- Those who sold today made profits.
- Those who sold today bought shares when market was low.
- Those who bought today yet to make profits.

"When everyone else is buying, we assume they know something we don't, so we buy" - Jonathan Sacks

Dr_CSE likes this post

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Post Wed Jul 05, 2023 2:30 am by celtic tiger

When big players buy, I buy and then they sell ,I sell... this is what I try to do most of the time . I felt lots of big movement in that 7B yesterday  so hopefully brighter days yet to come.

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Post Wed Jul 05, 2023 6:25 am by D.G.Dayaratne

DeepFreakingValue wrote:
D.G.Dayaratne wrote:PL DO THE OPPSIT OF SOME BAD PEOPLE SAY

THEN YOU WILL WIN

D.G.Dayaratna

Why are you advising members to BUY when you knew that market is going to reach 10,000 today?
What is the assurance that you give to the investors that they will make profits at prices if they bought today?

Today was the day to sell. Next week may be different.

- Those who sold today made profits.
- Those who sold today bought shares when market was low.
- Those who bought today yet to make profits.

"When everyone else is buying, we assume they know something we don't, so we buy" - Jonathan Sacks
 I do not advice any one to buy. Because i do not buy these days

DeepFreakingValue

Post Wed Jul 05, 2023 11:14 am by DeepFreakingValue

D.G.Dayaratne wrote:
DeepFreakingValue wrote:
D.G.Dayaratne wrote:PL DO THE OPPSIT OF SOME BAD PEOPLE SAY

THEN YOU WILL WIN

D.G.Dayaratna

Why are you advising members to BUY when you knew that market is going to reach 10,000 today?
What is the assurance that you give to the investors that they will make profits at prices if they bought today?

Today was the day to sell. Next week may be different.

- Those who sold today made profits.
- Those who sold today bought shares when market was low.
- Those who bought today yet to make profits.

"When everyone else is buying, we assume they know something we don't, so we buy" - Jonathan Sacks
 I do not advise any one to buy. Because i do not buy these days

Sorry, I think I misunderstood, when you said "Do Opposite" as a reply to the post.
We would have appreciated a reason to do opposite instead of just saying it, especially from a experienced investor and a senior member like you.

Have a great day!

ResearchMan

Post Wed Jul 05, 2023 1:14 pm by ResearchMan

Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. By taking it slow and steady, even ordinary investors can beat the professionals. 

ResearchMan

Post Wed Jul 05, 2023 1:33 pm by ResearchMan

Not sure, this is going to happen exactly. Predictions can come right or wrong. 

https://mettisglobal.news/sri-lanka-pakistan-stocks-upside-of-50-75-120/


Sri Lanka, Pakistan stocks: Upside of 50%, 75%-120%

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Post Sun Jul 16, 2023 2:09 am by celtic tiger

Pending quarterly  reports will push the ASI to 11000 mark . I think good times coming for short term trading as well. FORTUNE FAVORS THE BRAVE ??

avatar

Post Sun Jul 16, 2023 7:10 am by D.G.Dayaratne

DeepFreakingValue wrote:
D.G.Dayaratne wrote:
DeepFreakingValue wrote:
D.G.Dayaratne wrote:PL DO THE OPPSIT OF SOME BAD PEOPLE SAY

THEN YOU WILL WIN

D.G.Dayaratna

Why are you advising members to BUY when you knew that market is going to reach 10,000 today?
What is the assurance that you give to the investors that they will make profits at prices if they bought today?

Today was the day to sell. Next week may be different.

- Those who sold today made profits.
- Those who sold today bought shares when market was low.
- Those who bought today yet to make profits.

"When everyone else is buying, we assume they know something we don't, so we buy" - Jonathan Sacks
 I do not advise any one to buy. Because i do not buy these days

Sorry, I think I misunderstood, when you said "Do Opposite" as a reply to the post.
We would have appreciated a reason to do opposite instead of just saying it, especially from a experienced investor and a senior member like you.

Have a great day!


I have two list 1.Good people of this forum according to my experience
                      2. Bad people of this forum

This person is in my BAD LIST

avatar

Post Thu Jul 20, 2023 2:36 pm by celtic tiger

11000 ..4b turnover...bull market got some momentum.

avatar

Post Tue Jul 25, 2023 7:18 pm by God Father

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Scree347

As per latest financial statements released for the quarter ended 30th June 2023, most of the corporates have reported lower earnings compared to corresponding quarters which may likely to prompt a major stock market correction within next weeks according to analysts.

Most corporates have reported lower earnings due to the increase of costs resulting from inflation and volatile exchange rates.

Recently the Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka requested the businessmen to ignore exchange rate and only consider the inflation rate when deterring the costs. According to analysts such move would cause further reduction in corporate earnings.

Earnings Per Share (EPS) is one of the key indicators determining the value of a stock and as a result of lower earnings, stock market prices are expected to fall.

Majority of corporate results are expected to be released within next 3 weeks.

Find below some of the latest results:

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit F14tbh10

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit F1zeil10

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit F1j0jx10
Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit F1upsa10

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Ccs10
Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Cic10



Last edited by God Father on Wed Jul 26, 2023 1:16 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post Wed Jul 26, 2023 9:01 am by D.G.Dayaratne

I agree with GOD FARTHER

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Post Wed Jul 26, 2023 12:26 pm by God Father

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit Scree349

DeepFreakingValue

Post Wed Jul 26, 2023 3:07 pm by DeepFreakingValue

Accordingly to CBSL Governor, Banking Sector amalgamations/mergers are expected in September 2023. This will fuel the down trend further.

ResearchMan

Post Thu Jul 27, 2023 1:39 pm by ResearchMan

In my accumulation phase I absorb stocks like a sponge.  Stocks can go up with wall of worry as well, but margin of safety is my priority.  Corrections and volatility will  be there almost every year.  New normal.

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Post Fri Aug 11, 2023 3:11 pm by celtic tiger

11600 hard resistance level to break.. MELS ,JKH  and banks need foreign buying.

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Post Thu Aug 31, 2023 10:51 am by God Father

Colombo Stock Market: Opportunity to Exit F4ye2x10

https://twitter.com/gmsiriwardana/status/1696877241945170029?s=20

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