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How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_lcap9%How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_rcap 9% [ 26 ]
How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_lcap8%How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_rcap 8% [ 24 ]
How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_lcap16%How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_rcap 16% [ 47 ]
How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_lcap18%How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_rcap 18% [ 51 ]
How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_lcap16%How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_rcap 16% [ 47 ]
How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_lcap25%How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_rcap 25% [ 72 ]
How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_lcap7%How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Vote_rcap 7% [ 19 ]

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How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?

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God Father

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Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Scree351

The economic downturn in 1Q 2023 hit badly the banking sector as the NPL ratio has elevated to 12.9% from the 4Q 2022 11.5%. The moratorium offered during the pandemic era ends n Jan 2023 and many sectors are still struggling which has put banks in trouble. According analysts Banking Sector NPL's are currently in excess of 18% and expected to rise to 40% if no action taken by the banks or Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) to restructure bad and irrecoverable debts and loans owed to small to medium enterprises.

Above table also indicate the future Capital requirement of Sri Lanka Banks in the event of write off of 10% Non Performing Loans (NPL’s).

How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Img_2910

How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Ivmw0o10

https://charts.lk/d/649410e547aaa8aa508fe7ea



Last edited by God Father on Sat Aug 12, 2023 1:48 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Total non-performing loans of all banks reach Rs 1.4 trillion.

While revealing that the total value of non-performing loans of all 30 banks functioning in Sri Lanka currently is Rs 1.4 trillion, the State Minister of Finance Ranjith Siyambalapitiya today assured that steps would safeguard the economy.

Knowledgeable analysts estimate Siyambalapitiya's figure as only touching the tip of the iceberg, and that the actual figure will be at least double that figure.

Also,.since the GDP growth figures were negative 8.4%, 11.8%, 12.4%, & 11.5% in 2Q2022, 3Q2022, 4Q2022, & 1Q2023, respectively, it's a clear indication that the NPLs are bound to increase further over the next 4 quarters at least.

In the circumstances, Banks' liquidity and safety is bound to suffer considerably, and that is evident by the fact that the Central Bank has been compelled to slash its Statutory Reserve Ratio by 50% to provide some support to the beleaguered (under seige) and vulnerable banking sector.

Unless some serious infusions of liquidity is injected into the banks in the next few months, Sri Lanka may face an unprecedented banking crisis.

No amount of sweeping the crisis under the carpet by the Government and Central Bank will make this problem disappear.

Why Banks have to make higher provisions for Non Performing Loans (NPL's) during 2023?

❎ According to Circular 02 of 2022 issued by CBSL on 2 July 2022, All recovery action by the Banks were deferred until 31st December 2022. As a result most commercial banks have deferred making provisions for Non Performing loans until the said deadline of 31st December 2022.

How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Scree352

https://cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/laws/cdg/bsd_circular_no_2_of_2022_e.pdf

❎ Directive No 13 of 2021, issued by the CBSL on 14th September 2021 provide a guideline for the classification of Non Performing loans. Accordingly Banks have provide can differ the provisioning between  90 - 360 days depending of the classifications.
✖Special Mention Cases: 90- 180 Days
✖Substandard Loans: 180 -270 Day
✖Doubtful Debit: 270-360 Days
✖Loss: 360 Days

How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Scree353

https://cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/laws/cdg/Banking_Act_Directions_No_13_of_2021.pdf

❎ Finance Business Act direction No 1 of 2020 issued by CBSL provide a guideline for minimum Specific Provisioning requirement relating to Non Performing Loans (NPL's) based on classifications.

How will Non Performing Loans (NPL's) affect the Valuations of Banking Sector shares?  Scree354

https://cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/laws/cdg/Finance_Business_Act_Direction_No_1_of_2020_e.pdf

Banking Sector expected take a heavy beating in Oct/Nov with the Quarterly Earnings release.
Reasons.
- High Tax Impact on Earnings
- High on Performing Loan (NPL) Impact on Earnings
- Interest Rate Impact on Earnings
- Increasing administrative costs and impact on Earnings
- DDO Impact on ISB's and resultant losses
- Impairment due to Downgrading of the Domestic Debt
- Proposal for consolidation/amalgamation and its impact to shareholders.

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