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Colombo Stock Market: 2024 Prediction

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God Father

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Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Colombo Stock Market: 2024 Prediction Aspi_p11

According to latest trend analysis, Colombo Stock Market All Share Price Index (ASPI) expected to trade between ASPI 10600-9400 during 2024.

Key Events - 2024
(1) Annual Reports/3Q Results (Feb/March/April)
(2) IMF 2nd Review/4Q Results (May/June)
(3) 1Q Results (July/August)
(4) 2Q Results (October/November)
(5) Elections (November/December)

Sri Lanka's cabinet approved a hike in Value Added Tax (VAT) up to 18% from the current 15% with effect from Jan. 1, 2024. Further Sri Lanka will remove “almost all” exemptions from value added tax keeping health, education and some foods, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said in presenting a budget for 2024.

The second review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 billion bailout with the IMF expected to be completed in the first half of 2024, provided it manages to meet debt restructuring and revenue targets set under the programme.

It’s certain now that 2024 will be a year of election in Sri Lanka with both the presidential and parliamentary polls slated for next year. Coincidentally there are several other countries including India where parliamentary elections will be held next year while the US presidential election is scheduled for November 2024.

Colombo Stock Market: 2024 Prediction Scree411

https://invst.ly/12sl52



Last edited by God Father on Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:50 am; edited 2 times in total

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Post Wed Dec 27, 2023 6:35 pm by D.G.Dayaratne

I think most of investors are not happy with the government due to various. economic reasons including Vat and other taxes. 

Investors know the government try.to. hoodwink IMF AS WEL AS PEOPLE OF THE COUNTRY

IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO IMPLEMENT IMF PROPOSALS WITH PRESNT MEJORITY MEMBERS OF PATLIMENT.  GOVERMENT DO NOT HAVE ANY OTHER ALTERNATIV PROGRAME ALSO

STOCK MARKET WILL GO UP DEPENDING ON NEW POLICIES OF NEW GOVERMENT AFTER THE ELECTION.



Last edited by D.G.Dayaratne on Wed Dec 27, 2023 6:37 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typing error)

DeepFreakingValue

Post Wed Dec 27, 2023 11:38 pm by DeepFreakingValue

This is what is going to happen to Sri Lanka after 2024 Elections.

BUENOS AIRES, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Argentina's economy likely entered a technical recession - two straight quarters of economic contraction - in the third quarter, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Thursday, with an expected 0.7% contraction hurt by lower grains sales.

The South American country's GDP would have contracted in the July-September period between 0.3% and 1.4%, the forecasts from 12 analysts showed, hit by lower consumption and a drop in industrial activity. The economy shrank 4.9% a quarter earlier.

Argentina, which ushered in a new government last week, is battling likely stagflation on the horizon, a toxic mix of triple-digit inflation and recession that will likely squeeze people and push up the poverty rate, already at over 40%.

The economic picture also likely darkened further at the end of the year, analysts said, with the political uncertainty that surrounded the October-November elections and recent sharp devaluations of the peso currency.

"October-November were complex months for the economy, with the readjustment after the August devaluation and the uncertainty of the elections," said Federico González Rouco, economist at Empiria consultants.

He said the Q3 decline was due to a major drought that hit the key grains sector, along with weaker consumption and obstacles to imports that have been snarled by tight capital controls and a lack of foreign currency reserves.

Argentina, the third largest economy in Latin America, is going through a complicated financial situation, with 160% inflation, negative net central bank reserves and a "debt bomb" owed to local and global creditors.

Argentina's official statistics agency will publish GDP data for the third quarter on Friday at 4 p.m. (1900 GMT).

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentine-economy-likely-already-recession-analysts-say-2023-12-14/

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Post Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:30 am by ChooBoy

Colombo Stock Market: 2024 Prediction Scree413

දැන් 10,600, ජනවාරි වෙනකොට කොච්චර පල්ලම් බසිද? යන්තම් 11,500 වික්කා. තව ටිකක් තියනවා දෙන්න. දැන් දෙන්නද නැත්තම් ඔය කියනවා වගේ පෙබරවාරි වල දෙන්නද? ගිය සැරේ වගේ IMF එකේ රිවිව් එකට කට්ටිය ඇන්දෙයියද?

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Post Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:10 am by Value Pick

We can expect a record breaking year for CSE in 2024. Don't be negative all the time. If you all don't like the mkt get away from it. Don't spread the negatives all the time. Just look at how the stock markets are performing in countries where they have more economic issues than sri lanka. This is why this country can't progress. Every where negative thinking.

God Father and Amarapala like this post

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Post Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:35 pm by D.G.Dayaratne

I am not negative.

I think market will go up under new government.  Even under NPP you will see.

market friendly system of economy.

The year 2024 will be good collection period with ups and down. due to political uncertainty

Market will really go up after the election (2024.)



Last edited by D.G.Dayaratne on Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:38 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typing error)

ChooBoy likes this post

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Post Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:39 pm by Amarapala

Well said value pick. 

NPP, SJB or whoever wants power should show a clear cut policy on how they are going to balance country's finances. 

Overseas Friends sending 500$ a month, bringing back stolen funds etc are good on paper and on political platforms but when it comes to implementing gonna be  tough. 

Anyone familiar with finances will know that bulk of the expenses are on salaries, pensions and interest payments. So which part is going to be pruned or how the gap is going to be filled?

Beyondsenses likes this post

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Post Fri Dec 29, 2023 12:07 am by ChooBoy

All these chaps are saying what the illness is. Everyone knows that.
The need is to "find the solution". No one is doing that, other than to say, "let's follow an IMF programme". The people also seem to be happy with it!
That's how stupid we Sri Lankans are!

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Post Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:29 am by D.G.Dayaratne

1.WE have to inform all our Intenational creditors we are not in position to settee loans. We need 10 years. to settle loans with reasonable interest They are also responsible for unproductive loans without feasibility study. 

 2.No loans from any country or organization for 10 years

3 Develop export-oriented production economy and Impot substitution using available resources.

4 Develop tourism with available resources.

5 Effective cost reduction programs specially in public sector including government.


Other vice when we start payment of loan instalments we are compelled to face. severe crisis again

.

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Post Fri Dec 29, 2023 8:06 am by D.G.Dayaratne

Another improvement for above proposals

6. Skills development and foreign employment

7. stickily implementation of Ant- corruption laws 


You also can add more proposals.

ChooBoy likes this post

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Post Fri Dec 29, 2023 11:17 am by Amarapala

Debt restructuring is already happening. Kudos to the team who is negotiating it right now and for all the citizens bearing hardships as a result.
Creditors are not doing a social service-specially private creditors even if you leave out bi lateral and multi lateral creditors.
Remember the difficulty in restructuring the local debt even when the capital was gaurenteed. 


Are we to cut down the massive public service?
Railway /post/sl airlines etc
Are we to privatise government businesses?
Government Holidays

These are the core issues that someone wants to handle the economy needs to give clear cut answers.
Harsha DS seems to be at least giving some ideas, which is in the right direction . 

In these trying times, it is very easy to fool people.A solid plan with numbers on how the primary account is going to be balanced is required. 

Not only corruption that has caused the current problem, also the massive public service, loss making businesses, handouts/subsidies given in return of votes have a major role to play in this. NPP Lal kantha correctly stated this, but others are shy or not honest enough to say this.

Antonym

Post Sat Dec 30, 2023 5:45 pm by Antonym

During 2023, ASPI gained by 25.5% (USD terms: 41.8%).
I expect that we will see this upmove continuing through 2024 and that ASPI will breach 15,000 at some point.
Returns exceeding 30% (LKR & USD terms) are probable in 2024 if one remains invested in blue chip companies.

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