It is time to change our attitudes

opfdo

opfdo

Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1313
Join date : 2011-05-26

A T T I T U D E
1+20+20+9+20+21+4+5 = 100

i think we all are rely on rumors & information not about fundamentals & rechnical analysis. we used to it one year ago. but our attitudes have been changed by idiots@ sec.

they r playing with us. we all are waiting for thier positive info. to me it is time to chage our attitude. our companies are performing well, aren't they ?. Financial sector eranings are seems good. dividends are paying. other environmental factors are getting better for businesses. most of the fundamentals are undervalued. but we are chasing info & rumors. lets imagine, if the sec will not release the T+5 what will happen. dark red period of weeks will cover us, unless we change our attitudes.

my question is r they realy regulators ??? if they are, our market will not be a casino table. but they are serving the market with different kind of spoons, not considering the investors.

we should be wise & with positive attitudes to change this bad experiances. learn it, change our attitudes & go for it. Smile

Last edited by sriranga on Sun Apr 08, 2012 1:22 pm; edited 3 times in total (Reason for editing : spelling mistakes)

Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:59 pm by Aamiable · Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:59 pm by Aamiable

Academic wrote:

Aamiable wrote:

Ransiri Silva wrote:

raa wrote:Don't blame the SEC. Yes they may be inefficient, ineffective and not doing their jobs to the best of their ability BUT... they didn't ask us to chase speculative stocks...

The SEC isn't there to make us rich...

The SEC isn't there to tell us which stocks to buy and not to buy...

The SEC isn't there to tell us what rumors are real and not real...

I blame brokers. They don't educate the investor, they don't protect the investors in the market, they misdirect and misinform.

Of course we have our own risk in investing money in the market, but we should not forget that the SEC is there to monitor the smooth function of the market, by ways of stopping violations and manipulations, and giving the investors confidence to continue. If the investors loose their confidence and turn to other (legal) means to make money and the market is ruined day by day, what is the purpose of having a SEC? Investors take risk after evaluating kind of measurable facts and figures, we can't predict the impact of manipulations and violations. Being captured in and hammered by the intended manipulations of few few people don't mean taking a risk.

Investors also cannot expect miracles ……credit based growth is not real, inevitably market becomes red after few days if all are buying on credit….. “Aandi hath denage kanda haliya wage”…. then..there is a natural selection….. Stocks not dependent on credit tend to slowly appreciate...real investors follow those high cap stocks which attract real funds... as there are no gains in other stocks…who is going to loose initial investment also by joining a run or a rally which is going to collapse due to credit after few days and burn the fingers ..…

This is the very truth those who are crying for credit have to realize. Fundamentals come first!

True , market is in this sad state due to credit issue, not due to fundamentally sound stocks.

Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:31 pm by StocksWatch · Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:31 pm by StocksWatch

@ UKboy, you are 100% correct on this. These foreign funds are always one foot infront. When they sense an opportunity, they will grab with both hands and when they have made enough money they will not hesitate to leave. As they operate globally, they have much more options than our domestic retail investors in the market.

They might have realized the formation of a bubble early last year and they have been on the selling side eversince. Can we blame SEC for that?

Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:35 pm by Aamiable · Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:35 pm by Aamiable

StocksWatch wrote:@ UKboy, you are 100% correct on this. These foreign funds are always one foot infront. When they sense an opportunity, they will grab with both hands and when they have made enough money they will not hesitate to leave. As they operate globally, they have much more options than our domestic retail investors in the market.

They might have realized the formation of a bubble early last year and they have been on the selling side eversince. Can we blame SEC for that?

Unfortunately, when there is a credit bubble and fake inflated rallies investors and foreigners leave.

Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:52 pm by opfdo · Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:52 pm by opfdo

UKboy wrote:

osmand wrote:

prabashk wrote:Even though the SEC remove or relax the regulation, market wouldn’t be Bull Run with the current situation of Sri Lanka as well as the Global crisis.

Foreign investors withdraw their investment day by day and no more new funds to CSE.

Without new funds there will not be green.

friend, did you ever think why the foreigners moving away???. they are not like us. they are not following spaculations. (there are may be some). they are loving with fundamentals.eg - banking sector, JKH, ............

what has happen to the fundametals? not moving because of the created senario by sec. so they are moving. not because of the other reason. if our market doing well, we can attract more foreigners from the other markets because of global crisis.

Osmand,
I cannt agree with you. Most of these foreign funds invested at CSE prior to Jan 2010. So they managed to buy all these fundamentally sound shares for dirt cheap. They are leaving CSE not mainly because of fundamentally sound shares not going up but as a result of a simple business strategy. You need to understand its not because of someone's fault. Most of these foreign funds made more than enough money from CSE. So they should have every right in the book to withdraw money from CSE.

Since you mentioned JKH let me give you an example.

If you check the top 20 shareholders in JKH you can see that since the beginning of this year
"The Emerging Market South Asian fund" is no longer there.
This fund entered into JKH prior to March 2008 and

31.03.2008 they had 9.2M (7.2M before the subdivision of shares)
31.03.3009 they had 26.8M (20.1M before the subdivision of shares)
30.09.2009 they had 31.0M (peaked)
31.03.2010 they had 26.1M
31.12.2010 they only had 6.9M shares.

This shows that they gradually disposed their JKH shares at the right time. Raj Rajaratnam also disposed his shares at the right time. Both disposed JKH shares with hefty gains..

So please tell me what is wrong with any of these transactions?
People blame SEC for every single thing..

I agree with you UK boy. but try to underastand my point. who made them to disposed. SEC. r u agree with that. the decisions taken by SEC made this situation.. actually i do not want to blame them, but they are not acting according to the ethics. we can see it very clearly. before these things no one blame them. some are even do not know about them.

lets think about some of the decison made by them,
1. Price band - very good rule to me. But do they impose it properly. NOOOO. examples. CLND. they put arround 30s only. GRAN. BLUE. PMB - when coming down. ECL after subdivision.
2. Credit clearence. - Good but approach is very bad. In this world there is no any business without credit. what they do. giving dead line to clear. then extended it twice. but if they imposed that rule with a good broker monitoring approach how wise they are.

lets immagine, if all the banks announce to their customers to clear the loans before this date, what will happen. SEC imposed such a rule to the mkt & they make it a mess rather than make it polish. Sad

Wed Aug 03, 2011 2:46 am by UKboy · Wed Aug 03, 2011 2:46 am by UKboy

osmand wrote:I agree with you UK boy. but try to underastand my point. who made them to disposed. SEC. r u agree with that. the decisions taken by SEC made this situation..

NO
No Osmand you got it wrong. When these funds made enough money, they ready to leave the market. They know that they dont belong to the market and the market does not belong to them.
Please calcuate how much money " The emerging market south Asian fund" made out of JKH?. Its not just these funds, you and I also do the same thing.

osmand wrote: actually i do not want to blame them, but they are not acting according to the ethics. we can see it very clearly. before these things no one blame them. some are even do not know about them.

Brother I can see sheer frustration from you & at the same time I feel sorry for many of the retailers.

osmand wrote: before these things no one blame them. some are even do not know about them.

People made huge profits in last two years. So they did not want to know about SEC. But things has changed.

osmand wrote:lets think about some of the decison made by them,
1. Price band - very good rule to me. But do they impose it properly. NOOOO. examples. CLND. they put arround 30s only. GRAN. BLUE. PMB - when coming down. ECL after subdivision.

Unless its sooo erratic, they cannt/should not implement the price bands. If they do so people will say SEC looks like an old school master.

osmand wrote:2. Credit clearence. - Good but approach is very bad. In this world there is no any business without credit. what they do. giving dead line to clear. then extended it twice. but if they imposed that rule with a good broker monitoring approach how wise they are.
lets immagine, if all the banks announce to their customers to clear the loans before this date, what will happen. SEC imposed such a rule to the mkt & they make it a mess rather than make it polish.

Eventhough I don’t use credit facility I think people should have the rights to have about 15%-25% credit facility. Cannt you remember those days there were so many brokers and retailers cried and ask SEC to extension the credit facility?
Please read what actually happened in the bottom of this link. There is a comment from a guy called Kanchana ( Tubal) thats exactly what happened.
http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/fullstory.php?nid=167994075

Kanchana wrote:I really hope that the SEC is not stupid enough to dance to the brokers' tune. It should be the other way round. Just because a bunch of naive investers(?!) made a series of stupid decision it does not give them and their shady brokers the right to hold the country's entire financial system hostage.
The market went up from 1600 to 7700 in two years. That's a bubble, be thankful that the CSE is deflating it gradually. Be thankfull that the house of cards that is the SEC didn't collapse like other houses of cards namely Sakvithi, Golden Key and Danduwam mudulali

The SEC did not suddenly introduce a T+5 force selling rule. Brokers were always supposed to force sell after T+3. They didn't obey that rule between 2009 and 2010. (there's plenty of evidence that they are still not strictly enforcing it) What the CSEactually did is give brokers two extra days

The SEC did not suddenly introduce a 50% margin limit on credit. Brokers were never supposed to provide more than 50% of portfolio value as credit. They didn't obey that rule between 2009 and 2010 and sometimes gave a wopping 1000% that's all.

--Tubal

Wed Aug 03, 2011 4:37 am by dinusha.kiwulegedara · Wed Aug 03, 2011 4:37 am by dinusha.kiwulegedara

HI... all

I read all comments that posted under this point. One major thing is that i understand there is problem related to investors & traders .. Those who are falling trouble . I think all of you are agreed it... First we have to understand that we dont have highly dividend yield market like other countries.Those markets are not performing like our market According to that they are invested money for high dividend yield companies after analyzing lot of factors..

But In here lot of traders as well as investors are investing money looking for capital gain.it's mean we are having highly capital yield gain market. Thats why foreigners are attractive for this market They can gain more return rather than dividend.

According to that it should be essential to control market in right way.. Investor or trader that money are invested for return. so that they are looking for right brokers & investing money according to their Instructions. if they told these shares are to be better & these are verse, investor motivated to buy or sell those shares. so their the one who playing major rule in this markrt.

SEC also playing major role to avoid manipulation & violation against the rule. In this issue SEC brought out very tidy rule for overcome credit buying.As some one brought out earlier every business have a credit period. it cant be stop like that.

According to my view, following action to be taken by regulators.

1. Educated & analytical brokers should be appointed to the CSE.
2. SEC should be bring rules to suit investors,traders, brokers and capital market of the country
3. Investors & traders must be educated in this field.

Good luck Smile

Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:07 am by Soundchips · Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:07 am by Soundchips

Academic wrote:

Aamiable wrote:

Ransiri Silva wrote:

raa wrote:Don't blame the SEC. Yes they may be inefficient, ineffective and not doing their jobs to the best of their ability BUT... they didn't ask us to chase speculative stocks...

The SEC isn't there to make us rich...

The SEC isn't there to tell us which stocks to buy and not to buy...

The SEC isn't there to tell us what rumors are real and not real...

I blame brokers. They don't educate the investor, they don't protect the investors in the market, they misdirect and misinform.

Of course we have our own risk in investing money in the market, but we should not forget that the SEC is there to monitor the smooth function of the market, by ways of stopping violations and manipulations, and giving the investors confidence to continue. If the investors loose their confidence and turn to other (legal) means to make money and the market is ruined day by day, what is the purpose of having a SEC? Investors take risk after evaluating kind of measurable facts and figures, we can't predict the impact of manipulations and violations. Being captured in and hammered by the intended manipulations of few few people don't mean taking a risk.

Investors also cannot expect miracles ……credit based growth is not real, inevitably market becomes red after few days if all are buying on credit….. “Aandi hath denage kanda haliya wage”…. then..there is a natural selection….. Stocks not dependent on credit tend to slowly appreciate...real investors follow those high cap stocks which attract real funds... as there are no gains in other stocks…who is going to loose initial investment also by joining a run or a rally which is going to collapse due to credit after few days and burn the fingers ..…

This is the very truth those who are crying for credit have to realize. Fundamentals come first!

real funds and fundamentals...!

Wed Aug 03, 2011 9:10 am by Academic · Wed Aug 03, 2011 9:10 am by Academic

Aamiable wrote:

Academic wrote:

Aamiable wrote:

Ransiri Silva wrote:

raa wrote:Don't blame the SEC. Yes they may be inefficient, ineffective and not doing their jobs to the best of their ability BUT... they didn't ask us to chase speculative stocks...

The SEC isn't there to make us rich...

The SEC isn't there to tell us which stocks to buy and not to buy...

The SEC isn't there to tell us what rumors are real and not real...

I blame brokers. They don't educate the investor, they don't protect the investors in the market, they misdirect and misinform.

Of course we have our own risk in investing money in the market, but we should not forget that the SEC is there to monitor the smooth function of the market, by ways of stopping violations and manipulations, and giving the investors confidence to continue. If the investors loose their confidence and turn to other (legal) means to make money and the market is ruined day by day, what is the purpose of having a SEC? Investors take risk after evaluating kind of measurable facts and figures, we can't predict the impact of manipulations and violations. Being captured in and hammered by the intended manipulations of few few people don't mean taking a risk.

Investors also cannot expect miracles ……credit based growth is not real, inevitably market becomes red after few days if all are buying on credit….. “Aandi hath denage kanda haliya wage”…. then..there is a natural selection….. Stocks not dependent on credit tend to slowly appreciate...real investors follow those high cap stocks which attract real funds... as there are no gains in other stocks…who is going to loose initial investment also by joining a run or a rally which is going to collapse due to credit after few days and burn the fingers ..…

This is the very truth those who are crying for credit have to realize. Fundamentals come first!

True , market is in this sad state due to credit issue, not due to fundamentally sound stocks.

I would correctly state this as fundamental values have been distorted by credit. So many shares in the CSE are not fundermentally attractive at the moment. Note that it is not necessarily to be "fundamentally sound = blue chips". A blue chip may be unattractive fundamentally if it is overvalued. This is exactly what has happened now. Shares of many blue chips have become overvalued related to their value based on fundamentals by the artificial money (demand) created by broker credits.

Thanks to regulations of the SEC, though little late, CSE didn't become another Bangladesh. If it were we could see many suicides instead of cryings. For healthy market we should support SEC in their recent measure in controlling this situation like T+5 and credit clearance (note that if people do not buy on credit every T+5 day do not become force selling day. So no force selling pressure by T+5 unless investors (and brokers) created it).

I know there are many retailers with their portfolios having 20% loss. And I may hurt them when I write like this. This was mainly due to brokers and so called advisers who have purposefully (?) using poor retailers money to boost the market/specific shares by making buy recommendations at the peak of their price (well above fundamentally justifiable price).

Someone can argue here, broker buys only if client asked to do so. But the problem here can be summarized as follows.

Retail buy decisions are based on (mostly) inaccurate and probably backed by manipulative motives (buy recommendations by some brokers LOFC at 16 and 20s is one fine example) of brokers/advisers.
It is hardly a broker recommends and execute a buy and sell orders at right time (from retailers point of view), specially if they have other intentions/interest on particular share's price.
Retailers going after rumors.

So as poor retailer, you are suffering with 20% loss. Market correct itself if any miss pricing. No one can stop it permanently (even stopping T+5 or credit clearance). Thus, henceforth determine invest based on fundamentals. This forum has rich body of knowledge on share valuation. Read them and become a real investor. Then in long-run I'm confident you never loose again.

Wed Aug 03, 2011 9:58 pm by Investor99 · Wed Aug 03, 2011 9:58 pm by Investor99

In my opinion most investors are unaware about the rules and regulation that have been put in place by the SEC. As SEC is the equity watchdog presently it’s only enforcing the rules and regulations and the brokers are complying with them. So based on what reason are most of you guys blaming SEC, the only person that you should blame is you yourself.

Please do not compare the stock market with other business as the stock market is not a place for unregulated credit. The end result of unregulated credit is a bubble being formed which could have devastating consequences to all investors.

Learn not to be greedy and be patient. Be open-minded think of this as a good buying opportunity, 12 months down the line you will be rewarded.

Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:12 pm by Aamiable · Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:12 pm by Aamiable

As simple as this. ...if there is room for a credit bubble again however much tried …investments and funds cannot be attracted to CSE, reluctant to enter stock market as there are devastating consequences. ..Real investors suffered immense losses due to credit bubble during that period …..That is due to depreciation of initial investment value.....will they burn fingers again having undergone painful experiences in the past…… not again…who is going to made medium term investments , infuse more funds and suffer more losses.... Question

Last edited by Aamiable on Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:19 pm; edited 1 time in total

Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:17 pm by windi5 · Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:17 pm by windi5

Hmm thats right,instead of bleming why dont we make our own mistakes. Mkt came down due to credit clearance,there had been lots of credits it seems. After more than 400 points down, ppl rushed and collected shares at discounted prices,specially big fishes,that might be an one reason why mkt recovered again. Now ppl are taking profits,so mkt is again dropping. i heard brokers already has cleared 8b credit out of 10b, only 2m renaming. Credit free mkt will be a good idea for a bright future. most of ppl are suffering due to miss use of credits,dont know what to do and how to do when credits are around.Bubbles are not good can burst in any time making every one hurt. I love you

Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:23 pm by Aamiable · Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:23 pm by Aamiable

Aamiable wrote:As simple as this. ...if there is room for a credit bubble again however much tried …investments and funds cannot be attracted to CSE, reluctant to enter stock market as there are devastating consequences. ..Real investors suffered immense losses due to credit bubble during that period …..That is due to depreciation of initial investment value.....will they burn fingers again having undergone painful experiences in the past…… not again…who is going to made medium term investments , infuse more funds and suffer more losses....

It is all right to stop force selling.....more credit is not very healthy...only broker firms are benefited... Exclamation

Thu Aug 04, 2011 5:33 am by Aamiable · Thu Aug 04, 2011 5:33 am by Aamiable

windi5 wrote:Hmm thats right,instead of bleming why dont we make our own mistakes. Mkt came down due to credit clearance,there had been lots of credits it seems. After more than 400 points down, ppl rushed and collected shares at discounted prices,specially big fishes,that might be an one reason why mkt recovered again. Now ppl are taking profits,so mkt is again dropping. i heard brokers already has cleared 8b credit out of 10b, only 2m renaming. Credit free mkt will be a good idea for a bright future. most of ppl are suffering due to miss use of credits,dont know what to do and how to do when credits are around.Bubbles are not good can burst in any time making every one hurt.

When ever brokers form a bubble force selling comes in to picture.... If there no credit bubles ..there is no force selling...

Thu Aug 04, 2011 8:47 am by Soundchips · Thu Aug 04, 2011 8:47 am by Soundchips

Investor99 wrote:In my opinion most investors are unaware about the rules and regulation that have been put in place by the SEC. As SEC is the equity watchdog presently it’s only enforcing the rules and regulations and the brokers are complying with them. So based on what reason are most of you guys blaming SEC, the only person that you should blame is you yourself.

Please do not compare the stock market with other business as the stock market is not a place for unregulated credit. The end result of unregulated credit is a bubble being formed which could have devastating consequences to all investors.

Learn not to be greedy and be patient. Be open-minded think of this as a good buying opportunity, 12 months down the line you will be rewarded.

good time to enter...

Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:19 am by JennyFunny · Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:19 am by JennyFunny

Great articles everyone..

Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:00 am by Soundchips · Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:00 am by Soundchips

Is the momentum on SPEN today a bubble or actual?

Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:45 pm by Redbulls · Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:45 pm by Redbulls

Osmand where are you?
Missing a lot.

Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:51 pm by opfdo · Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:51 pm by opfdo

Redbulls wrote:Osmand where are you?
Missing a lot.

no mood to post anything redbulls. I just forgot the CSE until turn it back.
thanks for searching me. Smile

Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:57 pm by Redbulls · Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:57 pm by Redbulls

osmand wrote:

Redbulls wrote:Osmand where are you?
Missing a lot.

no mood to post anything redbulls. I just forget the CSE until turn it back.
thanks for searching me.

At last one commend from you friend.
So many of us missing your analysis.
Come on,the market is going in it's direction,we need to go on the way to gain.
Hope you will get good mood to come back and help us and the forum.