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Contingence Planning - Best Case, Worst Case, the middle and opportunity cost

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Sunnyside


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Guys, specially new comers

Just my personal view on the market. I am not clear on the outcome, either party can win, but like in accounting, my assumption here is that its going to be a green market going ahead but we should all plan for contingencies

For example if my portfolio has 100k gain as of today. Either side of Monday things can change.

1. I can take profits and be in money in preparation for any situation. Chances are if it is a favorable market (favorable in my context is UNP majority), the market would react fast and there would be quick movement, id probably not be able to enter at expected levels (will need to reevaluate portfolio and entry levels, not everything is sunshine even if its a bull market, or at-least i like to cover my risk lol)... By the time i find my entry level i may lose out on multiple opprtunities

2.a. I can hold on, if things go as i forsee, which I assume a UNP government would fuel the economy, then i have a chance of upping my gains to 120-40k hopefully (Finally a permanent government with out uncertainty)
2.b. If things don't go as expected i can maybe still get out with 75k in gains and renter again when things settle, such as a brief period after jan elections

Best case i end up with 120k worst case i end up with 75 k, or who know, MR would deliver the same result vice versa. 


To the new comers to the market, spend the weekend deciding what your position is going to be. Your risk appetite.

Cheers to a happy end though! It s bit of a biased post, but from 2015 Jan elections the market has been good to me with the current government, so id look forward for the same.  


Other opinions are welcome, such as balance of portfolio, if you have a certain portfolio and you plan on holding a certain company and exiting another which you deem more risky.

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