Fools Die.

tubal · 1 Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 7:59 pm

tubal

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Fools Die, that's a novel by Mario Puzo, the author of The God Father. It's based on Las Vegas. Contrary to popular belief, what happens in Las Vegas is highly predictable. The big casinos make big bucks using mathematics. In short, over the long term, 'the house' always wins.

Things are pretty similar in stock exchanges. Over the long term dumb money ends up in the hands of those with smart money. If you bought SHAL, GOOD and SELI today. Your money is as dumb as it ever gets. There is nothing wrong with any of these companies. They are pretty decent companies (though trading at high PE).

Your money is dumb because you bought those shares with out reading the offer document by carsons group to acquire all minority shares. That is the first step in delisting those shares.

Carsons is offering 887.00 for SHAL, 1,186.00 for GOOD and 1099.00 for SELI.

SHAL traded between 979 and 1098! for GOOD it was 1295.00 and 1350.00 and for SELI it was 1175 and 1290 way above the offer price. The people who sold you those shares must be laughing all the way to the bank. (Are you someone who sold today? congratulations! you are smart money)

All those prices are well above the offer price. Guess, what, unless you can find a 'greater fool' to offload these shares next week you will have to accept the voluntary offer. Why? because when a share is delisted you cannot sell those shares! (well you can theoretically but it's going to be like selling fridges to Eskimos without electricity)

mark · 2 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:01 pm

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tubal wrote:Fools Die, that's a novel by Mario Puzo, the author of The God Father. It's based on Las Vegas. Contrary to popular belief, what happens in Las Vegas is highly predictable. The big casinos make big bucks using mathematics. In short, over the long term, 'the house' always wins.

Things are pretty similar in stock exchanges. Over the long term dumb money ends up in the hands of those with smart money. If you bought SHAL, GOOD and SELI today. Your money is as dumb as it ever gets. There is nothing wrong with any of these companies. They are pretty decent companies (though trading at high PE).

Your money is dumb because you bought those shares with out reading the offer document by carsons group to acquire all minority shares. That is the first step in delisting those shares.

Carsons is offering 887.00 for SHAL, 1,186.00 for GOOD and 1099.00 for SELI.

SHAL traded between 979 and 1098! for GOOD it was 1295.00 and 1350.00 and for SELI it was 1175 and 1290 way above the offer price. The people who sold you those shares must be laughing all the way to the bank. (Are you someone who sold today? congratulations! you are smart money)

All those prices are well above the offer price. Guess, what, unless you can find a 'greater fool' to offload these shares next week you will have to accept the voluntary offer. Why? because when a share is delisted you cannot sell those shares! (well you can theoretically but it's going to be like selling fridges to Eskimos without electricity)

well said.......agree with you... Cool

micky · 3 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:10 pm

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tubal wrote:Fools Die, that's a novel by Mario Puzo, the author of The God Father. It's based on Las Vegas. Contrary to popular belief, what happens in Las Vegas is highly predictable. The big casinos make big bucks using mathematics. In short, over the long term, 'the house' always wins.

Things are pretty similar in stock exchanges. Over the long term dumb money ends up in the hands of those with smart money. If you bought SHAL, GOOD and SELI today. Your money is as dumb as it ever gets. There is nothing wrong with any of these companies. They are pretty decent companies (though trading at high PE).

Your money is dumb because you bought those shares with out reading the offer document by carsons group to acquire all minority shares. That is the first step in delisting those shares.

Carsons is offering 887.00 for SHAL, 1,186.00 for GOOD and 1099.00 for SELI.

SHAL traded between 979 and 1098! for GOOD it was 1295.00 and 1350.00 and for SELI it was 1175 and 1290 way above the offer price. The people who sold you those shares must be laughing all the way to the bank. (Are you someone who sold today? congratulations! you are smart money)

All those prices are well above the offer price. Guess, what, unless you can find a 'greater fool' to offload these shares next week you will have to accept the voluntary offer. Why? because when a share is delisted you cannot sell those shares! (well you can theoretically but it's going to be like selling fridges to Eskimos without electricity)

omg, what is this? no idea about these kinds of things? how small investors can get to know about these things? is it legal?

i like to have more information, new topic.

MarketResearch · 4 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:13 pm

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Interesting.... Razz

tubal · 5 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:13 pm

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micky wrote:
omg, what is this? no idea about these kinds of things? how small investors can get to know about these things? is it legal?

i like to have more information, new topic.

It's perfectly legal. And the voluntary offer announcement was on the CSE site yesterday. Whenever someone makes a voluntary offer the first question to be asked is 'oh my god are they planning to delist?'

UKboy · 6 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:26 pm

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[quote="tubal"]Fools Die, that's a novel by Mario Puzo, the author of The God Father. It's based on Las Vegas. Contrary to popular belief, what happens in Las Vegas is highly predictable. The big casinos make big bucks using mathematics. In short, over the long term, 'the house' always wins.

Hahaha Very well said Tubal (As usual)

Monster · 7 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:28 pm

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tubal wrote:Fools Die, that's a novel by Mario Puzo, the author of The God Father. It's based on Las Vegas. Contrary to popular belief, what happens in Las Vegas is highly predictable. The big casinos make big bucks using mathematics. In short, over the long term, 'the house' always wins.

Things are pretty similar in stock exchanges. Over the long term dumb money ends up in the hands of those with smart money. If you bought SHAL, GOOD and SELI today. Your money is as dumb as it ever gets. There is nothing wrong with any of these companies. They are pretty decent companies (though trading at high PE).

Your money is dumb because you bought those shares with out reading the offer document by carsons group to acquire all minority shares. That is the first step in delisting those shares.

Carsons is offering 887.00 for SHAL, 1,186.00 for GOOD and 1099.00 for SELI.

SHAL traded between 979 and 1098! for GOOD it was 1295.00 and 1350.00 and for SELI it was 1175 and 1290 way above the offer price. The people who sold you those shares must be laughing all the way to the bank. (Are you someone who sold today? congratulations! you are smart money)

All those prices are well above the offer price. Guess, what, unless you can find a 'greater fool' to offload these shares next week you will have to accept the voluntary offer. Why? because when a share is delisted you cannot sell those shares! (well you can theoretically but it's going to be like selling fridges to Eskimos without electricity)

Well said tubal. +Rep for you..

micky · 8 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:32 pm

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i really dnt know about these kind of things in share markets, these are like traps. really dangerous.

I need more information, how this happen? why? how it work?

any other traps like this?

UKboy · 9 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:36 pm

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micky wrote:i really dnt know about these kind of things in share markets, these are like traps. really dangerous.

I need more information, how this happen? why? how it work?

any other traps like this?

Any other traps.. Hmm possibly GREG warrants & ERI as a company.

micky · 10 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:38 pm

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my knowledge is zero ragarding these things, can anyone explain starting from zero, really appriciate.

Fresher · 11 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:39 pm

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micky wrote:i really dnt know about these kind of things in share markets, these are like traps. really dangerous.

I need more information, how this happen? why? how it work?

any other traps like this?

For the dumb money, like tubal mentioned, they're traps.
But one is dumb cos he is getting into the pool without knowing the depth of it.

All information regarding how the Stock Exchange is freely available, so are the announcement. There are also seminars but I don't know how good they are.

Any new comer must first get to know the market. Invest in companies they know what business it is in. You will never give money to someone whom you know what they do for a living, will you?
You will not lend to a person just because they have a story to tell.

That's why for beginners, IPOs are the best place to start. Brokers can be useful when starting (depends on the person)
When you get the idea how this thing works, then it's DIY

Good Luck.

wis · 12 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:44 pm

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Could other illiquid stocks follow this, considering the minimum limit of free float rules that could be applied in the near future?
There are many shares where around 75% are owned by a single company for example Lanka Soy and from the rest of the shares only a several thousand are trading. In the top 20 sometimes half of them own only around 5000 shares. I think if you can somehow put a mark on those shares that are trading, you probably will see that it's the same bundle of shares that are trading everyday going from person to person. Very Happy

Hmm, could this be why illiquid stocks are flying these days? Last dance before death?

achala75 · 13 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:22 pm

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Dear tubal,Thanks for your comment. But I have some different experiance with WAPO. I had 200 shares of wapo before it's announcement for sale of the company entirely, few months ago. 200 shares were cost to me around Rs.180.000/-and immediate after the announcement I sold my shares at Rs.1600/- per share and made a good profit too. After couple of days as I guess share price was droped to around 600/- level.I was so happy about my correct decision. But management suddenly took a decision to not to sell the company and to continue as an investment arm of the group and announced a right issue. What happenned after that ? You all know price jumpet to Rs.12000/- level. Now what is my position. In fact I could have earned huge amount of money if I decided to hold the shares to watch the situation. Carson group anyway is the largest group among the listed companies and it is a sri lankan owned well reputed multynational too. Therfore I dont see any risk in buying shares of companies of the group. These are my views only. may be I am wrong. Any person who wish to invest in any shares should have his or her own assessment.

tubal · 14 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:33 pm

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mark, ukboy, monster, wis, npp thank you for your comments.

Achala, you did exactly the right thing with WAPO. I think you are smart money. Monster and Mark have an excellent discussion on another thread about WAPO. It's operating purely on the greater fool theory. nothing else. Let's look at it again in the context of SHAL.

Suppose someone bought SHAL at 750 a month ago, then when the price got upto 850 he might have sold thinking. This is the right price - exactly like you did with WAPO. The person who bought at 850 say might have sold at 1050. Great profit for the second buyer. Small profit for the first buyer (like with you and WAPO). But what about the third buyer? Whom does he sell to? A greatest fool might come along but that greatest fool then becomes the 'Bag holder'

SmartMoney · 15 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:35 pm

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tubal wrote: congratulations! you are smart money

Dude, you talking about me ?? lol!

mark · 16 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:38 pm

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tubal wrote:mark, ukboy, monster, wis, npp thank you for your comments.

Achala, you did exactly the right thing with WAPO. I think you are smart money. Monster and Mark have an excellent discussion on another thread about WAPO. It's operating purely on the greater fool theory. nothing else. Let's look at it again in the context of SHAL.

Suppose someone bought SHAL at 750 a month ago, then when the price got upto 850 he might have sold thinking. This is the right price - exactly like you did with WAPO. The person who bought at 850 say might have sold at 1050. Great profit for the second buyer. Small profit for the first buyer (like with you and WAPO). But what about the third buyer? Whom does he sell to? A greatest fool might come along but that greatest fool then becomes the 'Bag holder'

you are welcome bro..........
correctly said............best thing is to not take a risk......
but if you take a high risk,return also high..........i'm fed of this WAPO scenario......everyday it is rising.....
Sad

tubal · 17 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:39 pm

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SmartMoney wrote:

tubal wrote: congratulations! you are smart money

Dude, you talking about me ??

Lowercase s and m my friend :-)

mono · 18 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:42 pm

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tubal wrote:

SmartMoney wrote:

tubal wrote: congratulations! you are smart money

Dude, you talking about me ??

Lowercase s and m my friend :-)

u mean s&m

Shocked

Monster · 19 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:50 pm

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I strongly believe, investing in CSE is not gambling. I don't mind making less profit but I used to invest on fundamentally strong shares (not the casino type shares). End of the day I should need a peaceful sleep.

tubal · 20 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:56 pm

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Monster wrote:I strongly believe, investing in CSE is not gambling. I don't mind making less profit but I used to invest on fundamentally strong shares (not the casino type shares). End of the day I should need a peaceful sleep.

Spot on monster. It's not gambling but an overwhelming majority of newcomers think it is. They are the gamblers in Vegas and smart money is the house.

mono wrote:
u mean s&m

You are saying people who bought these shares are into Sadomasochism?

achala75 · 21 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:12 pm

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Dear tubal, Thanks u have good undestanding in dealing shares. I agree That u should go on fundermenttally strong stocks. But same time I believe U should allocate some % for high risk deals as well. That is not only for making money but also to see whether your assessment is correct. If things are moving as u wished u enjoy it. If it happened other way around u have a chance to learn what are your mistakes and how to predict at next time. that is also part of this business I believe.

micky · 22 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:17 pm

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Monster wrote:I strongly believe, investing in CSE is not gambling. I don't mind making less profit but I used to invest on fundamentally strong shares (not the casino type shares). End of the day I should need a peaceful sleep.

i try to study, but this is going deeper and deeper, this topic stop my heart for a while.
but i think achala75 gave something different, i think always they offer a high price,(unfair laws cant exist) then price go up, i think so, otherwise sure SCE will be a casino. need to study more Sad

MarketResearch · 23 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:21 pm

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micky wrote:

Monster wrote:I strongly believe, investing in CSE is not gambling. I don't mind making less profit but I used to invest on fundamentally strong shares (not the casino type shares). End of the day I should need a peaceful sleep.

i try to study, but this is going deeper and deeper, this topic stop my heart for a while.
but i think achala75 gave something different, i think always they offer a high price,(unfair laws cant exist) then price go up, i think so, otherwise sure SCE will be a casino. need to study more

Machan, The only thing which i understood from this post that this post regarding a obituary.
"Any one has died"

micky · 24 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:30 pm

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MarketResearch wrote:

micky wrote:

Monster wrote:I strongly believe, investing in CSE is not gambling. I don't mind making less profit but I used to invest on fundamentally strong shares (not the casino type shares). End of the day I should need a peaceful sleep.

i try to study, but this is going deeper and deeper, this topic stop my heart for a while.
but i think achala75 gave something different, i think always they offer a high price,(unfair laws cant exist) then price go up, i think so, otherwise sure SCE will be a casino. need to study more

Machan, The only thing which i understood from this post that this post regarding a obituary.
"Any one has died"

stop my heart for a while ( for a while only), nobody will die if heart stop for a while.
it is to express my feeling, sorry if u dnt understand my language style.

anyway thanx for ur concern

MarketResearch · 25 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:38 pm

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micky wrote:

MarketResearch wrote:

micky wrote:

Monster wrote:I strongly believe, investing in CSE is not gambling. I don't mind making less profit but I used to invest on fundamentally strong shares (not the casino type shares). End of the day I should need a peaceful sleep.

i try to study, but this is going deeper and deeper, this topic stop my heart for a while.
but i think achala75 gave something different, i think always they offer a high price,(unfair laws cant exist) then price go up, i think so, otherwise sure SCE will be a casino. need to study more

Machan, The only thing which i understood from this post that this post regarding a obituary.
"Any one has died"

stop my heart for a while ( for a while only), nobody will die if heart stop for a while.
it is to express my feeling, sorry if u dnt understand my language style.

anyway thanx for ur concern

Machan, mama kuduwenna gahala inne.I ll think about further, about complex things tomorrow.Let's we go.

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Fools Die.

1 Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 7:59 pm

tubal

2 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:01 pm

mark

3 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:10 pm

micky

4 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:13 pm

MarketResearch

5 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:13 pm

tubal

6 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:26 pm

UKboy

7 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:28 pm

Monster

8 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:32 pm

micky

9 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:36 pm

UKboy

10 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:38 pm

micky

11 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:39 pm

Fresher

12 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:44 pm

wis

13 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:22 pm

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14 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:33 pm

tubal

15 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:35 pm

SmartMoney

16 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:38 pm

mark

17 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:39 pm

tubal

18 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:42 pm

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19 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:50 pm

Monster

20 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:56 pm

tubal

21 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:12 pm

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22 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:17 pm

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23 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:21 pm

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24 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:30 pm

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25 Re: Fools Die. Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:38 pm

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