TAFL undervalued ?

guys i have an idea to buy some TAFL shares between 98.00-100.00 level ,is it worth to buy @ this level or should i wait further? Yearning your valuable ideas.........

As at 30/09/2011
NAV 22.89
EPS for the last 9 months 5.21.
If you check their last 4 years accounts, this price is over valued to me.
Those who are pushing poultry shares will disagree with me.

Kumar, , I too agree with you. But the thing is price of a share is not only funtion two factors.Look at HDFC or Morision. Or Harischandra.(many other similar counters are there )What do you think?

With current earnings TAFL is still bordering overvaluedness. But remember DEC quarter is the usually the best for these kind of companies due to festivity. If they record around Rs 4 EPS then the current value if justified. If not it will not be. Only time will tell.
For poultry companies BFL is still the leader with account balances and strength of the company.

I do not wish make this a Poultry share argument as I know there are lovers and haters . I am merely pointing facts without regard to emotions.

Rajaraam wrote:Kumar, , I too agree with you. But the thing is price of a share is not only funtion two factors.Look at HDFC or Morision. Or Harischandra.(many other similar counters are there )What do you think?

Correct.

HDFC might be one of the most overvalued BANk shares now. But when know why it went this high. Still it holding the current value though financials are not even close to justify it.

MORI as good NAV and decent EPS comparatively.

Usually till 2009, quarter ended September had been bringing th highest earnings for poultry companies, then from 2010 I saw a divergence and December ending quater sprung up with increased revenue.. It might continue this year too..

In global markets, poultry is a favourite item due to being an important part of life.. though cyclical in nature, we cant actually forget these companies.

TAFL's accumulated losses are going down and by 2012 they'll be in a position to provide a dividend if all goes well.

TAFL's issued shares and public holding is less hence there's a chance of a run when the market is up..

When shares like RGEM, CLND, HVA at a mountain high, why should we worry TAFL below 100?

I'd give this a short term price increase of 10% min for the time being. Andif they do well in December qtr as well, I think a price of 20 could aslo be justifiable on future value of this counter as there's still potential for revenue growth..

Taking NAVS of a company in poultry sector, you cannot come to a conclution whether its over/undervalued, the reletive PE with market PE of the sector to be evaluated properly for a justification and then the favourable economic environment of the country too an equally vital factor for a company to grow..

Bu keep in mind, there are a number of ppl who bought this above 130 waiting to sell

Can some one tell me if it is advisable collect shares of Gran, TAFl at the present prices.

Nice to see some intermediate views!
Once upon a time all the people in the site including people in here were soo madly in love they never wanted to hear anything against them!
o.O how i remember the people here saying it might be overvalued at Rs 100 said it is way way attractive a t Rs 175!

How the times have changed although no major change in the company!

Rajitha wrote: Nice to see some intermediate views!
Once upon a time all the people in the site including people in here were soo madly in love they never wanted to hear anything against them!
o.O how i remember the people here saying it might be overvalued at Rs 100 said it is way way attractive a t Rs 175!

How the times have changed although no major change in the company!

Rajitha,

I do not know how many of others will respond to you but I choose to. You keep slandering people again and again without letting go of redundant old matters and without realizing that people make mistakes INCLUDING YOURSELF.
NO ONE IS PERFECT.

You keep vengence in your mind. This is not a good habit.

I am usually a reasonable person who always enjoy a decent but fair arguments . You should know that too as per our discussions.
Hope you remember the long discussion and PMs we had about TAFL/GRAN in March. I though it was over after pages and pages of discussions. But you suddenly come to forum again and bring up dead past issues also dragging people into it.

You are NOT BEING FAIR.

I hope others including Smallville will state their opinion here on your comment.

We all know you are poultry sector hater and also hate people who talk about it even. We also know you are adament plantation lover

1) Yes first I admit that I and many others in the forum were having faith in GRAN previously. I still do in the long term due so much
of factors we discussed before. If GRAN/TAFL reports good results in December this is going to have another run at some point.

Look at crap that trades is with no NAV and no Eps . Is GRAN with decent balance sheets ( better than TAFL) and a known business that bad to condemn. There is a maize importation issue at hand due to government taxes and local maize harvest. So their COS is higher than last year.

Also it if the market is further bearish TAFL,GRAN and all other shares can go down. So be careful newcomers

Many of us showed interest in GRAN when
a) GRAN profits was at its peak after last december before march 11 quarter results release
b) there was lot of investor momentum at that time
c) EPF , Laugf and others HNWI bought over Rs 200-250
d) GRAN dropped from Rs 258 to Rs 160-170 short time making it attractive at that time
e) we did not have INSIDER INFO to know that the next quarter , poultry companies was hitting a crisis.


f) anyway if one was so concerned about losses what about the 2 runs which GRAN/TAFL went back to RS 160s.
Two opportunities were there to get rid of GRAN/TAFL if one was worried.

i) One run was from rs 130s - Rs 160s
ii) 2nd run from Rs 80s to 160s


After showing bad results the prices start dropping.
Why is this a surprise to you. Does this not happen to ALL shares from time to time. Not only poultry companies ??
Now they are report profits again.

What about your favorite KGAL which was trading at Rs 280 and you had faith for it to go up further. How much it is now. Rs 116.
Loss is around 60-70%. Btw I still hold part of my KGAL faithfully. I even bought more recently.

What about LDEV you said was good price around 80s ( before rights ) saying it has potential to gain 100% profit. Now Rs 16. If a new comer bought in the 80s and even subscribed to all its rights, the loss will be closer to 45%

GRAN loss from Rs 165 to Rs 100 is only 40%

Why is this complain.
We ( at least I did not) blame or insulted you like you like to do when your picks lost over 50% value.



I am sorry I had to say all these. But you never learn. You choose to occasionally come into the forum and saying smarty
pant things while dragging other into your conversations. The newcomers does not know history.

If you pick unnecessary things from past ( which is irrelavent now) and attack people, expect to get a response and re-taliation.



My last plea to you :

Understand that

1) No one can predit market 100% accurately
2) we all make mistakes ( including you and me) and as good investors we need to learn from them
3) non of us are superior than others
4) Long term and short term investment strategies are different. ( we find dime to a dozen traders,gambler and short term player at CSE so they won;t even understand when we talk long term. )


Most importantly let us talk about current crisis and the pain we are in without unneccesarily dragging old issues back. Okay Rajitha.

Hope you take time to READ what I said and be reasonable.

Request to all members:


Please let us not mix belief and emotions on share discussions.
Share is a Share. Depending on your belief it might be unethical invest in certain shares.

You have all the right to say your opinion if you do not like a share. Also If you do not like it you do not have to invest in it .
But no one has a right to abuse others just because they might not agree with your belief. If you want to convince them, do it politely and constructively.

I am not asking anybody to buy TAFl/GRAN/BFL . . It is your call.

slstock wrote:Request to all members:


Please let us not mix belief and emotions on share discussions.
Share is a Share. Depending on your belief it might be unethical invest in certain shares.

You have all the right to say your opinion if you do not like a share. Also If you do not like it you do not have to invest in it .
But no one has a right to abuse others just because they might not agree with your belief. If you want to convince them, do it politely and constructively.

I am not asking anybody to buy TAFl/GRAN/BFL . . It is your call.

Well said bro

Hi i never mentioned your name or said anything bad about you! All I said was it was funny how people and the openion of this forum changes completely up side down!

As far as I can remeber I did not have even 2 people ehre to back me up when I said about the poultry stocks disaster when a huge campaign to promote poultry stokes were going on! They were calling about huge rallies and people including moderators showing EPS of these companies by multiplying their December quarter results!
Those days all I got was huge negative rep for posting truth and showing what is going to happen in a very short time! But as I can see now people here are a bit more mature and some more opinions than what the some promoters say!

For new combers here is a recap what we are talking about as time went on!
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t370-paultry-stocks-bfl-gran-tafl?highlight=gran
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t131-still-chance-for-bfl-tafl-and-gran?highlight=gran
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2868-gran-labai-labai?highlight=gran
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t3487p50-gran-tafl-1q2011-results-out-on-cse-website?highlight=gran
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t4877-gran-what-s-happening?highlight=gran

funny reads indeed! I just linked all the posts I have made regarding these as time has gone by!

Rajitha wrote:

As far as I can remeber I did not have even 2 people ehre to back me up when I said about the poultry stocks disaster when a huge campaign to promote poultry stokes were going on! They were calling about huge rallies and people including moderators showing EPS of these companies by multiplying their December quarter results!
Those days all I got was huge negative rep for posting truth and showing what is going to happen in a very short time! But as I can see now people here are a bit more mature and some more opinions than what the some promoters say!

I like to give recognition when due. Yes Rajitha in all fairness you did warn about the down trend of poultry when they were in Rs 160s-170s. I have acknowledged that in the past too.

Then it came to Rr 130 and ran back to Rs 160. Then crashed to rs 80s and ran to Rs 160s. Now at Rs 100.

slstock wrote:Request to all members:


Please let us not mix belief and emotions on share discussions.
Share is a Share. Depending on your belief it might be unethical invest in certain shares.

You have all the right to say your opinion if you do not like a share. Also If you do not like it you do not have to invest in it .
But no one has a right to abuse others just because they might not agree with your belief. If you want to convince them, do it politely and constructively.

I am not asking anybody to buy TAFl/GRAN/BFL . . It is your call.

Agree.

Rajitha wrote: people including moderators showing EPS of these companies by multiplying their December quarter results!

First to start with, I remember as yesterday even that moderator specifically mentioned before his argument that taking December qtr EPS result and multiplying that is not the best to begin with.. But also I remember that u had a bad reading comprehension issue at that time and over n over stated the same thing several times to mock the moderator when there's nothing wrong in his statement.. After realising that's being ur attitude, the mod had to say something like "U can take a horse to a lake but u can never make it drink..."

Then again I was happy to see ur back in forum after some vacation and yet I'm sad to see that u've not changed a bit.. Ur the same arrogant Rajitha that we see over n over again..U value ur opinion only and treat others as crap..

OFC.. If some1 thinks that we're married to the shares that we talk time to time, he/she should be the biggest fool of all time in this forum..

We talk about shares, their potential and they might go the way we thought, might not too.. Does it mean that company is so boring and we're wrong? Hell NOOOOO...

Every company may at some point go on cyclical return turns that affect their revenue time to time. Anybody would love to see the companies grow their Revenue, PAT, then EPS Qtr to Qtr.. cuz that's an ideal copmany to invest to as well, but if we invest thinking that companies can magically grow these figures we're either insane or high cuz no company can do that..

There can be good times as well as bad times.. Ther can be favourite economic situations and bad situations.. So we should be so damn lucky to see the companies not making losses at these negative times..

I talked about Chicks as well as plantations with high expectations.. Both have failed me in my judgement but both have shown runs time to time and if any1 was wise enuf they could dispose at a low profit or even dared to hold some more time, could have the chance to sell with minimum loss..
Now see the prices of KGAL, AGAL, NAMU.. Are these prices justifiable?
Now see the prices of GRAN, TAFL, BFL..Are these prices justifiable?

Then again see the prices of NTB, DFCC, SEYB.. Are these prices justifiable?

We can only say the prices have fallen from the intrinstic values to a level we cannot even think of in our dreams
(OK.. some very brilliant guys are here who could accurately figure the market was going down, yet kept these counters in their portfolio looking for miracles and finnaly diposed making hefty losses so I'm not talking much about that. Then also there are ppl who come to forum every time the Chick companies reported lower results than our expectation and says "I said so" then disappear when plantations did bad

If we talk about only the plantations, they were hit badly.. so as chicken.. So as banks and other good sectors.. But companies that have shown losses, like RGEM has done well in share price appreciation..
Now if somebody comes up and says we should invest in RGEM like companies all I have to say is.. pls go ahead.. as I didnt say so

If someone with CSE experience for 1-2 years try to advice a 10 year exp investor and teaches him how to do share trading, I may find it very interesting cuz sometimes exp values more than techs or fundamental knowledge..

Last but not least, we should develop a habit of respecting the ideas of others as well.. And if we can't we should not come up and show that we're idiots who dont listen to any1 than our selves.. If ur strategy works for u, practice it..But dont deprive others cuz they dont see it as u..
We need diverse ideas and thinking for us to see things in other's shoes.. If u cant admit it. Just omit it..

smallville wrote:

Rajitha wrote: people including moderators showing EPS of these companies by multiplying their December quarter results!

First to start with, I remember as yesterday even that moderator specifically mentioned before his argument that taking December qtr EPS result and multiplying that is not the best to begin with.. But also I remember that u had a bad reading comprehension issue at that time and over n over stated the same thing several times to mock the moderator when there's nothing wrong in his statement.. After realising that's being ur attitude, the mod had to say something like "U can take a horse to a lake but u can never make it drink..."

Then again I was happy to see ur back in forum after some vacation and yet I'm sad to see that u've not changed a bit.. Ur the same arrogant Rajitha that we see over n over again..U value ur opinion only and treat others as crap..

OFC.. If some1 thinks that we're married to the shares that we talk time to time, he/she should be the biggest fool of all time in this forum..

We talk about shares, their potential and they might go the way we thought, might not too.. Does it mean that company is so boring and we're wrong? Hell NOOOOO...

Every company may at some point go on cyclical return turns that affect their revenue time to time. Anybody would love to see the companies grow their Revenue, PAT, then EPS Qtr to Qtr.. cuz that's an ideal copmany to invest to as well, but if we invest thinking that companies can magically grow these figures we're either insane or high cuz no company can do that..

There can be good times as well as bad times.. Ther can be favourite economic situations and bad situations.. So we should be so damn lucky to see the companies not making losses at these negative times..

I talked about Chicks as well as plantations with high expectations.. Both have failed me in my judgement but both have shown runs time to time and if any1 was wise enuf they could dispose at a low profit or even dared to hold some more time, could have the chance to sell with minimum loss..
Now see the prices of KGAL, AGAL, NAMU.. Are these prices justifiable?
Now see the prices of GRAN, TAFL, BFL..Are these prices justifiable?

Then again see the prices of NTB, DFCC, SEYB.. Are these prices justifiable?

We can only say the prices have fallen from the intrinstic values to a level we cannot even think of in our dreams
(OK.. some very brilliant guys are here who could accurately figure the market was going down, yet kept these counters in their portfolio looking for miracles and finnaly diposed making hefty losses so I'm not talking much about that. Then also there are ppl who come to forum every time the Chick companies reported lower results than our expectation and says "I said so" then disappear when plantations did bad

If we talk about only the plantations, they were hit badly.. so as chicken.. So as banks and other good sectors.. But companies that have shown losses, like RGEM has done well in share price appreciation..
Now if somebody comes up and says we should invest in RGEM like companies all I have to say is.. pls go ahead.. as I didnt say so

If someone with CSE experience for 1-2 years try to advice a 10 year exp investor and teaches him how to do share trading, I may find it very interesting cuz sometimes exp values more than techs or fundamental knowledge..

Last but not least, we should develop a habit of respecting the ideas of others as well.. And if we can't we should not come up and show that we're idiots who dont listen to any1 than our selves.. If ur strategy works for u, practice it..But dont deprive others cuz they dont see it as u..
We need diverse ideas and thinking for us to see things in other's shoes.. If u cant admit it. Just omit it..

thanks for your contribution.

TAFL is just move up, what you think,will it pass 100.00?

yup it always around 90 and 100.