Still chance for BFL/TAFL and GRAN

Poultry industry not neglected
The Department of Animal Production and Health has taken steps to develop the poultry industry and increase production said Director General of the Department of Animal Production and Health, Peradeniya, Dr. Nimal Chandrasiri.

"The Department has launched an islanwide disease surveillance program to protect livestock and prevent the spread of bird flu and other contagious diseases", he said.

The All-Island Poultry Association said that the poultry industry has not got sufficient attention to solve some of the recurring problems of the industry.

Chairman All-Island Poultry Association, Dr. D. Wanasinghe said that the poultry industry makes a vital contribution to the country but has not received proper attention as given to other livestock industries.

"The import of chicken has an adverse effect on small scale poultry farmers who are unable to store stocks due to lack of proper storage facilities", he said.

The Poultry Association has requested policy makers to reduce the local tax on a kilo of chicken which is a burden to poultry farmers.

Dr. Chandrasiri said the import of chicken has helped provide adequate stocks to the market and stabilise the price of chicken.

"The need to import chicken arose due to shortage of stock during the festive season", he said.

The government imported eggs and chicken from India to avert a shortage of stock and stabilise the price during the festive season.

"The Department of Animal Production and Health has done a lot to protect and develop the poultry industry. Steps have been taken to improve hatcheries, health of birds and permit the import of parent stock", Dr. Chandrasiri said.

"There is no threat of the spread of the bird flu as regular surveillance is carried out to check the outbreak of any disease in the country. The import of chicken from bird flu affected countries is banned", the Director General said.

The spread of bird flu has been controlled to a great extent in countries through surveillance and regular health checks. Large stocks of birds were culled in the flu hit countries to stop the spread of the disease that resulted in huge loss to livestock.

by Lalin Fernandopulle

Source of this article not mentioned...
Any specific paper?

Sunday Observer (Today) is the source.

Yes poultry sector companies still has some room to go in terms of share price.
especially TAFL and GRAN..

@ econ,

any rough prices for TAFL/GRAN before and after Qtr reports?
cheers.

dhamm wrote:@ econ,

any rough prices for TAFL/GRAN before and after Qtr reports?
cheers.

sorry I can not give exact prices.. but at current momentum TAFL/GRAN may break even 250 unless anything bad happens to poultry farms.

Thanks econ for info

There is a huge promoting to get GRAN towards Rs. 400 and they will most probably succeed. So if you like to take some risks go for it. To be quite honest from the information I got from some top places the promoting gone for the BFL is shifting towards the GRAN to get it up now.

I personally do not take risks with my money and I do not have a huge amount to spend on it anyway as a academic. So i'm just going to hang on to the bit I bought around 60s and enjoy the show while investing rest of the cash I have on stocks on undervalued companies with strong financial statements. ( One would have to question at one point why take such risks in a market when you can already earn a nice amount with fundamentally strong stocks.) This is just my stand and of course you can have a good portfolio with decent amount set aside for high risk high gain.

Rajitha wrote: There is a huge promoting to get GRAN towards Rs. 400 and they will most probably succeed. So if you like to take some risks go for it. To be quite honest from the information I got from some top places the promoting gone for the BFL is shifting towards the GRAN to get it up now.

I personally do not take risks with my money and I do not have a huge amount to spend on it anyway as a academic. So i'm just going to hang on to the bit I bought around 60s and enjoy the show while investing rest of the cash I have on stocks on undervalued companies with strong financial statements. ( One would have to question at one point why take such risks in a market when you can already earn a nice amount with fundamentally strong stocks.) This is just my stand and of course you can have a good portfolio with decent amount set aside for high risk high gain.

I can not agree with you machan.. GRAN , BFL has been performing very well.. BFL already reported and GRAN,TAFL will report very good results as everyone knows that chicken prices are sky rocketed.. so their price increase is not artificial.
but in cse price increases are so fast that is the only concern. but all poultry companies are performed really well in terms of profit margins due to increased demand for chicken.

Dear Admin,/Qubit

I saw that when make a post there is a figure as reputation.What is that and how do you calculate it.

Please explain it.

Thanks.

econ wrote:
I can not agree with you machan.. GRAN , BFL has been performing very well.. BFL already reported and GRAN,TAFL will report very good results as everyone knows that chicken prices are sky rocketed.. so their price increase is not artificial.
but in cse price increases are so fast that is the only concern. but all poultry companies are performed really well in terms of profit margins due to increased demand for chicken.

OFC man they have performed well. But the question is can the current price justfy the performance they have delivered? Would you say if the BFL price is Rs1500 it is justified because it has performed well ? My point is in my Opinion the price have far exceeded the performance it has shown.

Just imagine the price hike only for the last quarter of BFL,
the earnings per share increase was Rs 3.09 a 43% rice. And this is also the poultry industries best period of earnings mind you as every expert have been pointing out. The share price increased from Rs 216.50 to Rs 481.40. This is a 122% increase in share price. Mind you you can not expect the same growth or earnings for BFL in the coming quarter as its just an average one and also the new found project also does not kick in till mid second quarter for the best estimates. Even if it does it will be a small part and might make loss as there will be a lot of expenses for getting it up and going. Also the tax except is only for this small part and not the whole BFL.

This is the best company out of the 3. When you look at the case like TAFL its really grim one. They have still huge accumulated loss no future farms on the way and for a small earnings increase the share price have hiked over 400%.

regarding BFL i agree with u that this quarter will be best .. but I think they can sustain around 8-9 EPS for next few quarter unless some thing bad happens to chicken. so Annualized EPS will be around 9*4 =36 .. so current price is around 500. so per is around = 500/36 = 13.8 ... so still not that overvalued.. the fact that poultry was really undervalued for many years.. after last year it has started to move..
lets take gran it has reported eps for 2.4 in September.. should be above 2.6 at least in this quarter..
so their annualized eps will be around 10 .. so PER is around 20 not that bad....

yeah i agree tafl has accumulated loss but it can cover up in few good quarters..i think they can produce eps at least 3 for next few quarters.. so annualized eps is around 12.. Per = 180/12 = 15 .. still not that bad considering some over valued cse counters..

also I think all 3 poultry sector companies will give good dividend in next few years..

econ wrote:regarding BFL i agree with u that this quarter will be best .. but I think they can sustain around 8-9 EPS for next few quarter unless some thing bad happens to chicken. so Annualized EPS will be around 9*4 =36 .. so current price is around 500. so per is around = 500/36 = 13.8 ... so still not that overvalued.. the fact that poultry was really undervalued for many years.. after last year it has started to move..
lets take gran it has reported eps for 2.4 in September.. should be above 2.6 at least in this quarter..
so their annualized eps will be around 10 .. so PER is around 20 not that bad....

yeah i agree tafl has accumulated loss but it can cover up in few good quarters..i think they can produce eps at least 3 for next few quarters.. so annualized eps is around 12.. Per = 180/12 = 15 .. still not that bad considering some over valued cse counters..

also I think all 3 poultry sector companies will give good dividend in next few years..

In my humble opinion the PE of 15-20 is a tad 2 high for a sector with a decent bit of risk involved (bird flue and chicken imports). But even as you said if they are alright PE ratios, why bother buying it ? You should be looking at counters that are already undervalued and not once that are already there. Because if its alright PE with future earnings it is not going to earn you a whole lot imo in the future.

Rajitha wrote:

econ wrote:regarding BFL i agree with u that this quarter will be best .. but I think they can sustain around 8-9 EPS for next few quarter unless some thing bad happens to chicken. so Annualized EPS will be around 9*4 =36 .. so current price is around 500. so per is around = 500/36 = 13.8 ... so still not that overvalued.. the fact that poultry was really undervalued for many years.. after last year it has started to move..
lets take gran it has reported eps for 2.4 in September.. should be above 2.6 at least in this quarter..
so their annualized eps will be around 10 .. so PER is around 20 not that bad....

yeah i agree tafl has accumulated loss but it can cover up in few good quarters..i think they can produce eps at least 3 for next few quarters.. so annualized eps is around 12.. Per = 180/12 = 15 .. still not that bad considering some over valued cse counters..

also I think all 3 poultry sector companies will give good dividend in next few years..

In my humble opinion the PE of 15-20 is a tad 2 high for a sector with a decent bit of risk involved (bird flue and chicken imports). But even as you said if they are alright PE ratios, why bother buying it ? You should be looking at counters that are already undervalued and not once that are already there. Because if its alright PE with future earnings it is not going to earn you a whole lot imo in the future.

yes you are right.they are not undervalued now.. they are fairly valued now. so increase of share price may not be that high compare to what happens earlier..