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Company profits in the next few quarters and the PE ratio

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

insidertrader

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

I was going through the reports of the companies in the last few weeks.
What I found out was that in many company reports there is a quarter that completely distorts the profits of the company. There is a quarter so that if you add up the other 3 quarters, the total is far less than the other quarter. In that extraordinary quarter there is either a sell off / other income / asset revaluation. This is not a seasonal. It's important to check with other years too.
Another thing I see is many companies have a massive profit from the tea and rubber segment 12 months ago. This number is so massive that it shadows everything else. Although it's not apparent many of the companies are affected by this plantations thing. Check RICH, BRWN, LCEY, CFLB and their companies, CIC, conglomerates, obviously all plantations. Many companies have plantations under them. There is a huge jump in December 2010 rubber case. Other quarters do not have that not even other December quarters. So as this is not recurring the profits may go down in many companies and the PE ratio may go up from quarter to quarter in the coming quarters.
And as you know some other companies have disposed their assets to make profits such JKH, DFCC, RICH. RICH PE ratio is came from 16 to 8 or something because they sold off a company share completely last quarter. Also in RHL, RENU, CABO they have a quarter in which they have sold off their shares which sometimes count to like 2 years of normal profits. The PE ratio looks ridiculously small. Some will say they have more assets but that matters only if they're going to sell everything or when they go bankrupt or somebody takes over them.
Check out the BRWN which has a single digit PE ratio. Check its profits over the last 4 quarters. Last year it was going at around PE 20. First quarter there was a huge profit number thanks to plantations. 2 quarter and 3 quarter there was a big minus number and a tiny plus number and the last quarter there is a huge plus number. You know why? Because they bought a leased property (for 30+ years) and reevaluated it and put the current value as a profit which accounts for the massive profit in the report. That is not real money and it's not like they can sell the property even because it's a leased property for a limited number of years.
In SAMP reports in each quarter check the numbers in the 'other income'

These are some of things I came across. Just some examples. These are only a few I remember right now. I'm writing these things because new comers will get trapped into this massive profits and massive growth propaganda or interpret numbers wrongly. If you're investing for the long term check if the numbers can really grow or will the profits will come down. Check if the profits are consistent. If you're an investor read the quarter reports. See why there are huge profits at one quarter covering the whole year or sometimes for many years. Check at least 2-3 years of reports. Check the other income.



Last edited by insidertrader on Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:13 am; edited 1 time in total

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Appreciate your analysis.
New or seasoned investors need to see the core income to evaluate the company growth.
Which in CSE we are lacking.
My personal opinion.

soileconomy

Post Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:03 am by soileconomy

Good point and very reasonable .
one thing I noticed , other than the seasonal income which is the normal pattern of plantation companies ,they got a bad hit from hike of wages.
Since it is not link to the productivity it causes more damages to the industry.
With the tension in middle east and economic problems in other counties prices of tea has dropped drastically.
Once this is improved plantation companies will adjust their prices to this level or naturally they will come down further.
But some plantation companies are in oversold section.they seems to be somewhat attractive at this levels.
Other one-off items should be excluded in calculation their profits , but the capital gains which they got ,may have been invested somewhere and after 2-3years time a capital gain could derived from same thing if company is more prudent in its investments.(Eg-RENU) .
Present share prices may justify its earnings(from core business activities ) and market PE ratio is somewhat fairly priced now.

@ insidertrader & soileconomy
Good points were analysed.
Really appreciate.
Thanks.
Have a good trade.

smallville

Post Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:36 am by smallville

I think this post requires its attention.. So I'm moving to Expert Section..

Abt RENU - last time they funded their refurbishment of hotel by selling off some shares from their investment portfolio and a bank OD. Also they show an amt due to them as an amount they should recieve on a loan facilitated by them to another company overseas (as I remember)

Lets have a good discussion... Wink Thanks for bringing this up..

Very Interesting Analysis . Thanks.

Sometimes it may be not just selling but just 'evaluating' the assets, properties, portfolios add up massive profits to the reports but there is no cash involved. No growth. No earnings just virtual money is generated in paper just like broker credit. Only air.

avatar

Post Mon Dec 19, 2011 7:36 pm by 123longway

Hi, insidertrader,
I, as a beginer appreciate your post. It has shown the pitfalls to avoid while reading company reports.
These may be acceptable under the present accounting standards, but don't these Accountants have any ethical standards. The statements issued by the audits appears to be just a formal statement, if that is so.
This might be food for thought for the new Chief Mr. Karunarathna, while he is trying to reorganise the CSE.

This may help

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t13602-what-is-the-prevailing-market-pe-ratio

Cheers!

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