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I believe we will pull out of this mess. The only question in my mind is when it will happen.

+8
soileconomy
smallville
opfdo
Kumar
kankaniya
early
kaka
Asoka Samarakone
12 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Asoka Samarakone


Expert
Expert

I believe we will pull out of this mess. The only question in my mind is when it will happen.

Following some brutal days, weeks and months some were saying the worse must be over and things will return to normal. Every time the market prices fall, pundits begin taking shots at calling the bottom. Down markets are fertile ground for rumors, wishes and ill-founded hopes that the good times are just around the corner. One of the most troubling environments for markets to handle is uncertainty. A normal strategy in a down market is to look for good companies trading at a discount. However, when you are uncertain there will be any future earnings, picking a winning stock becomes much more risky. Investors need to know that markets will react in reasonably predictable ways. Until that confidence is restored, many investors will sit on cash or cash out of stocks when they can.

When investors can’t reliably predict a company’s future earnings because the market is in chaos, the smart thing to do is nothing. While waiting for the market rebound, look for bargains if you can afford the risk and with the understanding that no matter how far a stock has dropped, it could drop more. There is no doubt that much value has been lost in the market and many investors are sitting on the sidelines with large hordes of cash. If there is a reliable sign that the market has turned around or is beginning a turnaround, much of that money will likely rush back in to the stock market. When buyers flood the market, prices go up. However, it is my belief that investors coming back into the market will be more concerned than ever before about safety. You may have to accept a lower potential return or be willing to take more risk to achieve your goal.
Long-term investors can look for stocks that may be under-priced (when considering long-term potential) for good returns when the market picks up. Stock market is always looking to the future and not necessarily the present. There are still opportunities for the long-term investor in a slow-growth; you just may have to look harder.
Most stock investors take a long-term view and, if you can afford to hold on to that timeframe, I believe the market will right itself (with some help from the government).
Until confidence returns, investing the stock market will remain very uncertain.
Despite the terrible circumstances that grip the stock market, I believe we will pull out of this mess. The only question in my mind is when it will happen.

Doing something just because everyone else thinks it’s a good idea, won’t give you much drive or determination or commitment. An important key to success knows precisely what success means to you. Learning is an evolutionary process. Each time you watch a session and execute a play, you'll be learning something new.

My goal is to help you make money and trade smarter. But don't take my word for it.

Asoka Samarakone

kaka


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Thnak you Mr Asoka, you are a genious

early


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Thanks for your advice.
Yes, I too agree with you that a market turn around will happen given a lot of positive sentiment returns to the market. As you correctly say investors will be extra cautious now.
I feel the proper turnaround should happpen around May/ June 2012, once the corporate profit figures as at 31/12/2011 and 31/03/2012, are incorporated into the Market Price to Earnings Ratio (Market PER), because by then the MPER might be even less than 10 (now its 15.49)
Also I feel that this turnaround should take the market up by at least 1000 points (ASI).
These are my thoughts only. Would like to have your ideas on same.

All the Best

kankaniya


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

Mess? what mess? Oh you mean the mess you got yourself into buying shares when all signs indicated a bear market? Right that mess!

kaka


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

kankaniya wrote:Mess? what mess? Oh you mean the mess you got yourself into buying shares when all signs indicated a bear market? Right that mess!

Another fool came to the forum Sad

kankaniya


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

kaka wrote:
kankaniya wrote:Mess? what mess? Oh you mean the mess you got yourself into buying shares when all signs indicated a bear market? Right that mess!

Another fool came to the forum Sad

Kaka would be one of Rajitha's duplicate accounts.

Tell me Rajitha (or Kaka) who is the fool? someone who buys when all indications are that there is a bear market or someone who sells when that happens and has seen the price of shares he sold have drop by 50%

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

I like your last phrase.
But I personally do not thing you can change the attitude of our readers.
As in another thread smallville mentioned you can take the horse to the water but ............
That is the situation. No one want to invest their time to do the research by them self or read.

Thanks a lot for sharing a valuable article.



Last edited by Kumar on Sat Jan 07, 2012 3:43 pm; edited 1 time in total

opfdo

opfdo
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

nice one thank you

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Another point I forgot to mention is "If we feel this is a mess then we are going to be in mess near future". Corrections cannot be identified as a mess.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

kankaniya wrote:
kaka wrote:
kankaniya wrote:Mess? what mess? Oh you mean the mess you got yourself into buying shares when all signs indicated a bear market? Right that mess!

Another fool came to the forum Sad

Kaka would be one of Rajitha's duplicate accounts.

Tell me Rajitha (or Kaka) who is the fool? someone who buys when all indications are that there is a bear market or someone who sells when that happens and has seen the price of shares he sold have drop by 50%

Noboy's fool I think.. Everyone governed by the experience, knowledge they have and ppl act according to their sentiments too.. may be you're smart enuf to understand that its a bear market, but majority didnt.. And majority didnt listen when it was said so.. again that's becuz lack of experience..
So we cant blame anyone for lack of experience, knowledge to identify these things in advance at all.. So u cannot call ppl fools just for not being smart enuf know?

soileconomy

soileconomy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Even though company earnings show a good growth in profits and other financials , market conditions and investor confidence do not go line in line .In some occasions , the other way round.
But market strategy says it should go line in line.
So we are in the transit period of that ,which most investors and traders find difficult to adjust their mentality and monetary obligation in short term.
Thanx.Mr Samarakone for pointing out a mid to long term vision which may helps ome of us to understand the current difficult period

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin

Thanks for sharing a good topic at this precise moment and welcome couple of comments made by our forum members.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

TortoizePlus

TortoizePlus
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

early wrote:Thanks for your advice.
Yes, I too agree with you that a market turn around will happen given a lot of positive sentiment returns to the market. As you correctly say investors will be extra cautious now.
I feel the proper turnaround should happpen around May/ June 2012, once the corporate profit figures as at 31/12/2011 and 31/03/2012, are incorporated into the Market Price to Earnings Ratio (Market PER), because by then the MPER might be even less than 10 (now its 15.49)
Also I feel that this turnaround should take the market up by at least 1000 points (ASI).
These are my thoughts only. Would like to have your ideas on same.

All the Best

I agree with you..but from 15.49 to less than 10 in 6 months... more than 35% drop.. isn't this bit optimistic...
we cannot expect much from plantations, Land and property, helth care, investment trusts.. etc..
only B&F can offer massive growth.. others are in moderate growth.. still we cannot say hotels are fairly valued.... some blue chips like SPEN, JKH are still overvalued... will see.. I am expecting a stagnating market

Trillionaire

Trillionaire
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Asoka Samarakone wrote:


My goal is to help you make money and trade smarter. But don't take my word for it.

Asoka Samarakone

Please......never stop persuading your goal! You're really helping beginners like me.
Keep up the good work! Very Happy

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Thanks for sharing a timely post.

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