Yanne koheda? Innene koheda?

Some people here are very hopeful about a strong bull market. They advised us not to miss the opportunity to collect at the bottom. I don't know whether they collected. But I did not collect as I have my own view based on my own analysis. Some of them I published in this forum. They made some people very angry. Some times they used inferior language and insulted too. I just wanted to share what I see. I thought that they will be useful to one person at least.
Those who read my old posts months ago knows I said that market may fall to 4800 level in worst scenario.
Now what I can say is that it is more likely than before. The new credit rule helped the market to swell by 5 billion credit. Credit must be supported by real money. Without sufficient inflow of real cash credit worsens the situation. It happened today. So the fall may be faster and deeper.Those who have a vision about the movement of the CSE exited. That means more real money was withdrawn from the market. I also had been stucked with some speculated stocks as a result of a failed day trading due to a system failure few weeks ago. I got a chance to sell it with a small profit.Foreign selling is still higher than buying. Today foreign buying 146,860,660m selling 222,414,606m.

But now I am more confident that the market is going to fall to 4800-5400 level in coming months/weeks. I do not expect a real bull run in the first half of 2012. We have to pass another bear market rally before areal recovery. The peak of that bear market rally will be below or close to 6000.
Don't believe in experts or expert opinions. There are no experts in stock market. The day you believe that you are an expert is the end of your success.
Now I am happy about one thing. It is that technicals are sound enough and to protect ourselves.

Good luck.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Need to agree with you.

mate this is all about confidence, isn't it ???? see your words..... it shows the lack of confidence. hopeless. you know my friend life moves with expectations. Expectation drives the life. We need expectations to our life as well as to the CSE too. do not give up friend.

Stockmate wrote:Some people here are very hopeful about a strong bull market. They advised us not to miss the opportunity to collect at the bottom. I don't know whether they collected. But I did not collect as I have my own view based on my own analysis. Some of them I published in this forum. They made some people very angry. Some times they used inferior language and insulted too. I just wanted to share what I see. I thought that they will be useful to one person at least.
Those who read my old posts months ago knows I said that market may fall to 4800 level in worst scenario.
Now what I can say is that it is more likely than before. The new credit rule helped the market to swell by 5 billion credit. Credit must be supported by real money. Without sufficient inflow of real cash credit worsens the situation. It happened today. So the fall may be faster and deeper.Those who have a vision about the movement of the CSE exited. That means more real money was withdrawn from the market. I also had been stucked with some speculated stocks as a result of a failed day trading due to a system failure few weeks ago. I got a chance to sell it with a small profit.Foreign selling is still higher than buying. Today foreign buying 146,860,660m selling 222,414,606m.

But now I am more confident that the market is going to fall to 4800-5400 level in coming months/weeks. I do not expect a real bull run in the first half of 2012. We have to pass another bear market rally before areal recovery. The peak of that bear market rally will be below or close to 6000.
Don't believe in experts or expert opinions. There are no experts in stock market. The day you believe that you are an expert is the end of your success.
Now I am happy about one thing. It is that technicals are sound enough and to protect ourselves.

Good luck.

Good post....seems to be logical too....

@ Osmand
You are terribly and mournfully wrong. Confidence has no role in things we can not control. Stock market behaves on its own and your confidence can not control it. Then what we have to do is to understand the movement of the market and act accordingly.
You have taken my post by the tail.
Today I got rid of some shares that worth 1.5M without considerable profit as I wanted to protect my capital .I did so as I am CONFIDENT enough about what my my technical reveals me. That's my confidence. If I had not that confidence I would have lost 13M by now.But I was confident about my understanding ( Not about the market) and sold every thing by last July.

But you tell me to be confidant and hang around. But you are free to be confident about the market and hang around. But that is not confidence. I say that is" YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO"

Stockmate wrote:@ Osmand
You are terribly and mournfully wrong. Confidence has no role in things we can not control. Stock market behaves on its own and your confidence can not control it. Then what we have to do is to understand the movement of the market and act accordingly.
You have taken my post by the tail.
Today I got rid of some shares that worth 1.5M without considerable profit as I wanted to protect my capital .I did so as I am CONFIDENT enough about what my my technical reveals me. That's my confidence. If I had not that confidence I would have lost 13M by now.But I was confident about my understanding ( Not about the market) and sold every thing by last July.

But you tell me to be confidant and hang around. But you are free to be confident about the market and hang around. But that is not confidence. I say that is" YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO"

If you don't mind, Could you share your technical analysis??

Dear Stockmate

I wanted (million times) to comment on your recent topics but somehow managed to keep my mouth shut.
The only thing I can say I feel really sorry for whoever went against you last few weeks.

I can see... ...Surely you will survive. Thats the most important thing in a market like CSE.

Thanks for all your topics.

Good luck for the rest of the members

@ ccsentha
Surely. Give me a day or two. I am extremely busy these days.

Stockmate wrote:Some people here are very hopeful about a strong bull market. They advised us not to miss the opportunity to collect at the bottom. I don't know whether they collected. But I did not collect as I have my own view based on my own analysis. Some of them I published in this forum. They made some people very angry. Some times they used inferior language and insulted too. I just wanted to share what I see. I thought that they will be useful to one person at least.
Those who read my old posts months ago knows I said that market may fall to 4800 level in worst scenario.
Now what I can say is that it is more likely than before. The new credit rule helped the market to swell by 5 billion credit. Credit must be supported by real money. Without sufficient inflow of real cash credit worsens the situation. It happened today. So the fall may be faster and deeper.Those who have a vision about the movement of the CSE exited. That means more real money was withdrawn from the market. I also had been stucked with some speculated stocks as a result of a failed day trading due to a system failure few weeks ago. I got a chance to sell it with a small profit.Foreign selling is still higher than buying. Today foreign buying 146,860,660m selling 222,414,606m.

But now I am more confident that the market is going to fall to 4800-5400 level in coming months/weeks. I do not expect a real bull run in the first half of 2012. We have to pass another bear market rally before areal recovery. The peak of that bear market rally will be below or close to 6000.
Don't believe in experts or expert opinions. There are no experts in stock market. The day you believe that you are an expert is the end of your success.
Now I am happy about one thing. It is that technicals are sound enough and to protect ourselves.

Good luck.

Agree Good post

osmand wrote:mate this is all about confidence, isn't it ???? see your words..... it shows the lack of confidence. hopeless. you know my friend life moves with expectations. Expectation drives the life. We need expectations to our life as well as to the CSE too. do not give up friend.

All these expectations have driven us to extremes and now we moan for good news, more and more SEC carrots to see a bull market.. Its just a hope..

What we have these days is a gut feeling that counters we follow would go up.. But if the circumstances permit, we should get out and stay on cash..

Do not think these artificial money can drive a maket to new highs, those are gonna fail at previous resistance points due to seling pressure..

Smart money is on a last attempt to get out.. Wise men should not be suckers..

Stockmate wrote:Some people here are very hopeful about a strong bull market. They advised us not to miss the opportunity to collect at the bottom. I don't know whether they collected. But I did not collect as I have my own view based on my own analysis. Some of them I published in this forum. They made some people very angry. Some times they used inferior language and insulted too. I just wanted to share what I see. I thought that they will be useful to one person at least.
Those who read my old posts months ago knows I said that market may fall to 4800 level in worst scenario.
Now what I can say is that it is more likely than before. The new credit rule helped the market to swell by 5 billion credit. Credit must be supported by real money. Without sufficient inflow of real cash credit worsens the situation. It happened today. So the fall may be faster and deeper.Those who have a vision about the movement of the CSE exited. That means more real money was withdrawn from the market. I also had been stucked with some speculated stocks as a result of a failed day trading due to a system failure few weeks ago. I got a chance to sell it with a small profit.Foreign selling is still higher than buying. Today foreign buying 146,860,660m selling 222,414,606m.

But now I am more confident that the market is going to fall to 4800-5400 level in coming months/weeks. I do not expect a real bull run in the first half of 2012. We have to pass another bear market rally before areal recovery. The peak of that bear market rally will be below or close to 6000.
Don't believe in experts or expert opinions. There are no experts in stock market. The day you believe that you are an expert is the end of your success.
Now I am happy about one thing. It is that technicals are sound enough and to protect ourselves.

Good luck.

If people loose confidence and start selling, this is what is going to happen. And true, new credit will make it worse. I 100% agree with you. Then, this credit grant going to be a bad move. But I don't think it may happen soon.

However, if the market perception becomes positive, this new credit may drive the market till big investors and funds come in. Then, this credit grant going to be a good move.

All we can do is act prudently.

Thanks stock mate..

This is not a confidence problem. This is a liquidity problem. so we can't find our foot till foreign inflows come...Our day dreamers will eventually understand this. IMO next supportive level would be 5400 - 5500.

Don't you think foreign funds would be buying our shares if they're really attractive, undervalued, at bargained prices? Why do you think they're not buying? Colombo shares are over expensive even today. The reason is there is no consistent growth or direction in the business for the price you pay. Blame the directors.

Damn it!
Stockmate, you're becoming a genius!

Stockmate thanks a lot. Keep up the good work.

Stock mate is collecting a fan base now ... good post again.

The thing with introducing credit into the system is that the big beneficieries get it and pass it off to others, usually the less fortunate. At the end of the day somebody has to pay up and you can guess who that usually ends up being...

In relation to confidence... our market is stretched to the point that an improvement in confidence will stop the down trend. Confidence alone is not enough though, it needs to translate into new money... As most players and as stockmate has said are holding on to cash till they think the market attractive is enough to enter again.

Again, I have my reservations on the market falling below 5000 levels. On current technicals, it may look that way, but as time goes by you'll have to periodically update your prediction to account for changes in trends and macroeconomic factors that may influence the market. Basically, your right until you re-correct yourself cos you'd probably be right again ... haha

Currently 4800 support by year end.
5800 is current resistance... 5600 (or just below) will be the next, then around 5200 on current pattern.

okkoma Yanne Dewale, apith Yanne ewale.............

aj wrote:Don't you think foreign funds would be buying our shares if they're really attractive, undervalued, at bargained prices? Why do you think they're not buying? Colombo shares are over expensive even today. The reason is there is no consistent growth or direction in the business for the price you pay. Blame the directors.

looks sensible..and true

Agreed stockmate keep up the good analysis and don't quit the forum, just because some been rude to you. we have already lost many good, genuine members and their views.

keep it up