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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » EXPERT CHRONICLE™ » Analysis of REEF in depth

Analysis of REEF in depth

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sapumal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Shajesh wrote:
@sapumal wrote:you will see a huge profit in CARS /Buki income statement. They (Palm oil) don't do translations in SLR, but statements are prepared using SLR. After rupee devalue All the net assets (foreign) marked in foreign currency will converted into SLR. That's 3% of the NAV
Also you have to consider strength of their currency relative to USD

I can see that you are crying. but i cant help u

I don't need your help. I don't have any CARS group share. I owns only reef.

Share this post on: redditgoogle

Post Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:08 pm by innam

@cseguide wrote:
@lokuayya wrote:innam ,

How do you asses the current market situation , will it perform this year positively?can it reach beyond 6800.
going away from the topic somewhat but still relevant. I am also asking the same question from you innam ? please give your valuable comments on this.

Sorry i'm pretty useless at predicting market directions.

Just a simplistic analysis is that for the index to go past the figure @lokuayya mentioned.....1) PE has to go past 18 (looks unlikely given the current mood) or 2) EPS has to grow by 23% y-o-y while trailing PE remains at the current 14 levels (possible but a lot will depend on the overall economy) or 3) a combination of 1 & 2

So the key question is do you beleive that EPS will grow 25% y-o-y over the next 4 quarters?

Post Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:24 pm by lokuayya

thanks innam,

Post Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:42 pm by lokuayya


yes, innam, as you said the mood is still not good.when in good mood people can do any thing.

Post Wed Jan 25, 2012 6:31 pm by cseguide

Thanks innam

smallville

Post Wed Jan 25, 2012 6:35 pm by smallville

On another thread Antonym mentioned the current PE of our market is still relatively too much compared with other developed markets while its cheaper than rest of the world..

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CSEALL%3AIND

Then it has room for another crash may be to 5000 before coming up.. Who knows even all these can be manipulated know?

market bull

Post Wed Jan 25, 2012 6:49 pm by market bull


lol! lol! lol!


@sapumal wrote:
@Shajesh wrote:
@sapumal wrote:you will see a huge profit in CARS /Buki income statement. They (Palm oil) don't do translations in SLR, but statements are prepared using SLR. After rupee devalue All the net assets (foreign) marked in foreign currency will converted into SLR. That's 3% of the NAV
Also you have to consider strength of their currency relative to USD

I can see that you are crying. but i cant help u

I don't need your help. I don't have any CARS group share. I owns only reef.

Chinwi

Post Wed Jan 25, 2012 7:55 pm by Chinwi

@greedy wrote:The below is a matrix... showing profits required by REEF to justify its share price by 2016 at different P/E levels. REEF will have 173mn shares by 2016 after the conversion all of its warrants.


Analysis of REEF in depth - Page 2 Reef_b13

Please Note I did not intend to promote this share. Now I feel I have talked too much about this.
Greedy,
The following is also reproduced from REEF cash flow forecast sent to us last year. .

Year 2016
Room nights 164,250
Room rate 160 Us$ (avr)
Revenue 2,487,340,134.00 ( Exchange Rate 116.00)
F&B Rev 2,035,000,000.00
Total Revenue 4,522,436,607.00
Direct Costs 904,487,321.00
Opr. Expences 994,936,054.00
Total Expenditure 1,899,423,375.00
Operational Profit 2,623,013,232.00 ( 2.623 billioin)

just the forecast.



greedy

Post Wed Jan 25, 2012 8:22 pm by greedy

@Chinwi,

Agreed Smile. I did not have that forecast. But I don't think anyone will say that you are promoting it. I can remember we discussed this share some 18 months ago in another forum Smile

I added my calculation for anyone to see whether those profit levels are achievable or not and I don't know how REEF's performance would be in the future!

innam

Post Wed Jan 25, 2012 8:55 pm by innam

@Chinwi wrote:

The following is also reproduced from REEF cash flow forecast sent to us last year. .

Year 2016
Room nights 164,250
Room rate 160 Us$ (avr)
Revenue 2,487,340,134.00 ( Exchange Rate 116.00)
F&B Rev 2,035,000,000.00
Total Revenue 4,522,436,607.00


Well that's really helpful thanks for showing us the forecast.
So the forecast hopes to achieve Revenue from room and F&B of around 28,000 per day on average (during off season and tourist season).
That looks very optimistic (unless they have a casino and other extra curricular activities)....just as a comparison for the six months ended March 31 RHTL which is the highest star class listed hotel was only able to generate Revenue from room and F&B of 27,800 and KHL with 512,000 room nights was only able to generate 5.6 billion in revenue for the year ended March 2011 (REEF hopes to generate 4.5 billion in revenue from 164,000 room nights).
REEF needs to do a lot of magic to deliver the forcasted revenue in 2016. Note that i'm only pointing out the negatives, IF management deliver on what they promise then there's money to be made.

avatar

Post Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:02 pm by seyon

Very good analyis and discussion, I am also following this share after spotted by smallville.

Next warrants is going to be converted on May 2012 ( I guess) So we have to wait and see the trend of the shares and warrants during the conversion. that would give some input for our analysis interms of price trend shareholding structure.

Thanks for the analysis.




TortoizePlus

Post Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:06 pm by TortoizePlus

@innam wrote:
@Chinwi wrote:

The following is also reproduced from REEF cash flow forecast sent to us last year. .

Year 2016
Room nights 164,250
Room rate 160 Us$ (avr)
Revenue 2,487,340,134.00 ( Exchange Rate 116.00)
F&B Rev 2,035,000,000.00
Total Revenue 4,522,436,607.00


Well that's really helpful thanks for showing us the forecast.
So the forecast hopes to achieve Revenue from room and F&B of around 28,000 per day on average (during off season and tourist season).
That looks very optimistic (unless they have a casino and other extra curricular activities)....just as a comparison for the six months ended March 31 RHTL which is the highest star class listed hotel was only able to generate Revenue from room and F&B of 27,800 and KHL with 512,000 room nights was only able to generate 5.6 billion in revenue for the year ended March 2011 (REEF hopes to generate 4.5 billion in revenue from 164,000 room nights).
REEF needs to do a lot of magic to deliver the forcasted revenue in 2016. Note that i'm only pointing out the negatives, IF management deliver on what they promise then there's money to be made.

Thanks innam and Chinwi,

Tourist arrival is growing more than we expected. This month only we have near 100,000 arrivals. The figures hotels show today may be completely different when we see 2013 results. When considering the growth, I see REEF expectation is less than optimistic level but at the end you have to grab the market share which very competitive especially in beach resorts to justify the figures.

Further, when you analyze top shareholders in REEF and its subsidiaries you can clearly identify backup given by some government politicians which other small palyers can achieve.

I don’t have REEF at the moment but we’ll consider when we see good investor sentiment in future.

Again thanks for the healthy discusstion.

avatar

Post Thu Jan 26, 2012 9:44 am by sapumal

Hikkaduwa - 93
Waskaduwa - 155
Kalpitiya -150
Passikudah - 50 (Initial stage)
Hambantota - 200 (still nothing has done)

Upto now they have,

finalized 400 rooms.
50 is about to finalized. (High end tourism)
(450 )

200 rooms are on card

total 650 rooms are on card. What could be the probable room nights ?

If they built a hotel on Passikudah (when it was included to the hot map) I hope they will go beyond 800 rooms

Just a hope. But this is not 100% my thinking. REEF have expressed their desire to build hotels in Hambatota and Passikudah


avatar

Post Thu Jan 26, 2012 10:56 am by sapumal

Thanks Chinwi. This will useful for my further analysis

@Chinwi wrote:
Please Note I did not intend to promote this share. Now I feel I have talked too much about this.
Greedy,
The following is also reproduced from REEF cash flow forecast sent to us last year. .

Year 2016
Room nights 164,250
Room rate 160 Us$ (avr)
Revenue 2,487,340,134.00 ( Exchange Rate 116.00)
F&B Rev 2,035,000,000.00
Total Revenue 4,522,436,607.00
Direct Costs 904,487,321.00
Opr. Expences 994,936,054.00
Total Expenditure 1,899,423,375.00
Operational Profit 2,623,013,232.00 ( 2.623 billioin)

just the forecast.


Hoping we are going to hit exchange rate of 120 in near future. Basil also put pressure on Cabral.

@seyon wrote:Very good analyis and discussion, I am also following this share after spotted by smallville.

Next warrants is going to be converted on May 2012 ( I guess) So we have to wait and see the trend of the shares and warrants during the conversion. that would give some input for our analysis interms of price trend shareholding structure.

Thanks for the analysis.

Interesting person in the list is Tharana Gangul . Very close person to නිමල්, ධම්මික, CEO and director of RCL

He didn't had much warrants(1Mn) . But from 2010/12/30 to 2011/9/30 he has bought further 4Mn warrants (W18). Average cost may be over 25. He is one who know about REEF future (may be for trading purposes).
Director of RCL
RCL invested on REEF
RCL has connection with නිමල් පෙරෙරා
නිමල් , දිලිත, Amunumaga close persons



Also we thought when DP sold reef @45 it is very much over valued (15.7 Mn shares). But when it released the quarter report on 2011 March we can assume it is fairly valued
Profit for 3 months = 14.3Mn

EPS = .91
Annualized EPS = 3.65
PE = 12.3

With the increase of tourist arrival and increased room charges profit of 57Mn (PE = 12.3 ) hadn't been a very difficult achievement.
But they chose to expand.



Last edited by sapumal on Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:10 pm; edited 1 time in total

avatar

Post Thu Jan 26, 2012 11:18 am by seyon

@sapumal wrote:

Interesting person in the list is Tharana Gangul . Very close person to නිමල්, ධම්මික, CEO and director of RCL

He didn't had much warrants(1Mn) . But from 2010/12/30 to 2011/9/30 he has bought further 4Mn warrants (W18). Average cost may be over 25. He is one who know about REEF future (may be for trading purposes).
Director of RCL
RCL invested on REEF
RCL has connection with නිමල් පෙරෙරා
නිමල් , දිලිත, Amunumaga close persons

sapumal

Yes I know all related parties to නිමල් & දිලිත are in the list, but anything will be happend in anytime. As innam pointed these guys holding warrants in margin a/c, some times they might be forced to sell some qty when mkt drops. However i am also bullish on warrants 19 after smallville notice. But i am waiting till the next warrant conversion.

Chinwi

Post Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:58 pm by Chinwi

Seyon
However i am also bullish on warrants 19 after smallville notice. But i am waiting till the next warrant conversion

That is clever.
We have lot of time to observe this share and take decisions - to collect it or not-.

There may be ups and downs in next 1-2 years creating opportunities if we wanted to collect it.
At moment I bet 5% of my money on this.

As Innam pointed out this could be very risky as their calculations are unrealistic. But I feel this is too good to loose IF they succeeded in achieving even half of their targets in 2-3 years. The development of infrastructure by the Govt. in this areas will definitely boost the values.

TortoizePlus
Further, when you analyze top shareholders in REEF and its subsidiaries you can clearly identify backup given by some government politicians which other small palyers can achieve.

That is another + point I see here when forecasting the future of this entity. ( Not about the ethical part of these dealings)

The Govt. is trying to get funds from Qatar to build toll highway to Kalpitiya from KAT. - Today's news.
I think now we can imagine their plans and understand why they (REEF) put so much money and interest in non-tourist area like Kalpitiya. All are inter connected.
Yesterday I got reliable inside news about deals with another world famous Hotel chain and their +ve response in coming to establish in Hambantota. I have to Refrain disclosing the name because it will be a huge showcase and surprise if they come to anywhere in Asia to start business. To strengthen their plans they need quick access to up country too. CMB-Kandy highway is going to get priority. There will be another good road from Mattala to N'Eliya via Wellawaya.
Ratmalana Airport is becoming a very important place.
At the moment there is a problem due to limited length of the runway (6050 ft)
Extending of it is a problem because the marshy land in Bellanwila side -runway 04- and Galle road is there in sea side end- runway 22-. There is a proposal to send the Galle Road under the runway (like in Dubai - East end) or divert the Galle road towards the beach.

smallville

Post Thu Jan 26, 2012 9:44 pm by smallville

@seyon wrote: However i am also bullish on warrants 19 after smallville notice. But i am waiting till the next warrant conversion.

Frankly, I've to give credit to Chinwi for pointing me in this direction.. I was quite happy about VONE as a long trm hold and was trying to find out the info on it then a discussion with Chinwi changed my attention to REEF19.. Both were at the same range those days and I wanted to wait to buy it ard 10-15 range.. Wink
So still this has not come to my price but 13-14 is also ok for me.. But I've not started buying this apart from the 400 share I hold Wink he hee..

I still believe in a second chance to buy low..

Even if we put aside the fundamental and forecasted valuations, I think its a fair assumption that REEF can trade above 100 in 2-3 years time.. So with a conversion price of 40 for REEF19, its an easy 20% gain in 2-3 years.. Even sometimes REEF19 without converting can give u a 20% gain cuz REEF is a speculative share and there are ppl beind this to drag this to next level..

avatar

Post Thu Jan 26, 2012 11:59 pm by seyon

@smallville wrote:
@seyon wrote: However i am also bullish on warrants 19 after smallville notice. But i am waiting till the next warrant conversion.

Frankly, I've to give credit to Chinwi for pointing me in this direction.. I was quite happy about VONE as a long trm hold and was trying to find out the info on it then a discussion with Chinwi changed my attention to REEF19.. Both were at the same range those days and I wanted to wait to buy it ard 10-15 range.. Wink
So still this has not come to my price but 13-14 is also ok for me.. But I've not started buying this apart from the 400 share I hold Wink he hee..

I still believe in a second chance to buy low..

Even if we put aside the fundamental and forecasted valuations, I think its a fair assumption that REEF can trade above 100 in 2-3 years time.. So with a conversion price of 40 for REEF19, its an easy 20% gain in 2-3 years.. Even sometimes REEF19 without converting can give u a 20% gain cuz REEF is a speculative share and there are ppl beind this to drag this to next level..

Ok Small.. Thanks to Chinwi and you. I am also waiting till next warrant conversion. The way mkt goes, We may be able to buy less than Rs.10.. I am waiting the days to come

20% gain in 2-3 years ????? I can't understand the calculation. Pls explain..

Chinwi

Post Fri Jan 27, 2012 8:16 am by Chinwi

@seyon wrote:

Ok Small.. Thanks to Chinwi and you. I am also waiting till next warrant conversion. The way mkt goes, We may be able to buy less than Rs.10.. I am waiting the days to come

20% gain in 2-3 years ????? I can't understand the calculation. Pls explain..

Seyon,
I think it is a typo. ( or may be 200%)
Say you bought REEFw19 @ 15
If Reef N trade @ 100 in 2015
then REEFw19 = 100 - 40
= 60
your gain 60 - 15 = 45
45/15 = 3
= 300% ( without considering inflation)
= 200 % - 400 % possible

Chinwi

Post Fri Jan 27, 2012 8:22 am by Chinwi

+ contd-

if REEF N trade @ say 50 in 2015 (due to any unexpected reason)
Then REEF w19 = 50 - 40 = 10

(your cost = 15 + 40 = 55)
= LOSS

avatar

Post Fri Jan 27, 2012 8:41 am by seyon

@Chinwi wrote:+ contd-

if REEF N trade @ say 50 in 2015 (due to any unexpected reason)
Then REEF w19 = 50 - 40 = 10

(your cost = 15 + 40 = 55)
= LOSS

Thanks Chinwi. I don't think. At present Investor paying Rs.40 for the intial stage, If they built up within target time and start their operation, that would enhance the value of the share certainly. Anyway we will wait and see.

Chinwi

Post Fri Jan 27, 2012 8:45 am by Chinwi

@seyon wrote:
@Chinwi wrote:+ contd-

if REEF N trade @ say 50 in 2015 (due to any unexpected reason)
Then REEF w19 = 50 - 40 = 10

(your cost = 15 + 40 = 55)
= LOSS

Thanks Chinwi. I don't think. At present Investor paying Rs.40 for the intial stage, If they built up within target time and start their operation, that would enhance the value of the share certainly. Anyway we will wait and see.

Me too. I put that to balance my 400% forecast :-)

mark

Post Sun Jan 29, 2012 6:40 pm by mark

there was a continuous huge dumping in REEF W18 in last days(by putting undisclosed sell orders),the exercise price of warrant is 30rs and due in this year.....
current mkt price of REEF N is 40Rs..hmmmmm

avatar

Post Sun Jan 29, 2012 9:26 pm by DK

Chinwi, about that calculation, you havent accounted for dilution of share price due to rights conversion right?

Chinwi

Post Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:22 am by Chinwi

@DK wrote:Chinwi, about that calculation, you havent accounted for dilution of share price due to rights conversion right?

I have considered it DK, but not in the usual direct way.

Actually it was some what a layman's calculation, not just considering all these ratios, present number of shares or number after the dilution in 2012 and 2015.

It is because of the nature of this Company.
For this I referred their proposed hotel projects, their location, projected room numbers and possible revenue, their cash flow plan and given EPS and the value of the company as a whole and possible NAVPS, EPS after 2015. (EPS considered by me inclusive of dilution is much lower than what they say in their plans)
In addition I have to think about future demand for the share from big funds and foreign investors and the backing they get from the Government. Rising of asset value due to the infrastructure development by the Govt. is also considered.

This REEF is high risk high return/loss entity. It may go either way. If they developed as planned I thing it will generate high interest from international funds.

I have no interest in W18 . There will be a selling pressure for it in coming month . The real game will be after they close W18 episode. For next 3 years they have no warrants. That is the period for build and inauguration of the new hotels. During that period anything could happen.
IF they introduce some other dilution in between, we will have to think again. But, according to their project and cash flow plans they have not suggested any rights or warrants for that period. Capital infusion of 1.8 billion by the way of bank loans is there.

smallville

Post Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:02 pm by smallville

@seyon wrote:

Ok Small.. Thanks to Chinwi and you. I am also waiting till next warrant conversion. The way mkt goes, We may be able to buy less than Rs.10.. I am waiting the days to come

20% gain in 2-3 years ????? I can't understand the calculation. Pls explain..


OOPS... my bad.. its a TYPO... extremely sorry, who wud wait 2-3 years to get a 20%? he hee..

The min should be 200% with the calculated risk.. Chinwi had explained it in a very simple way os I dont have to waste time.. Smile

Also Chinwi has been prudent enuf to show the vice versa as well.. But what I think is; if REEF trades at 50 in 2015, it could be after a sub div or another right issue..

Rights are not gonna be treated good however..

greedy

Post Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:20 pm by greedy

@smallville wrote:On another thread Antonym mentioned the current PE of our market is still relatively too much compared with other developed markets while its cheaper than rest of the world..

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CSEALL%3AIND

Then it has room for another crash may be to 5000 before coming up.. Who knows even all these can be manipulated know?


One of the few things that we need to consider when we do comparisons of P/E between different stock markets is that inflation and Interest Rates. Many including me made that mistake in comparing P/E ratios of stock markets ignoring interest rates and inflation.

Same applies when we do comparisons of Current P/E ratios with the past... due consideration to be given for inflation and interest rates.

smallville

Post Mon Jan 30, 2012 4:29 pm by smallville

Correct Greedy,

Inflation rate refers to a general rise in prices measured against a standard level of purchasing power. The inflation rate in Sri Lanka was last reported at 6.9 percent in November of 2011 and then dropped to 4.9% in Decemner 2011 according to CB.the interest rates are getting higher now in most private banks..

Ppl may not come to stock markets if the FD and bond rates stay above 15% cus those are guaranteed..

Found the following in http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ & indexmundi.com;

Analysis of REEF in depth - Page 2 Sl_inf10

Analysis of REEF in depth - Page 2 World_10

Analysis of REEF in depth - Page 2 World_11

avatar

Post Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:20 pm by seyon

@smallville wrote:
@seyon wrote:

Ok Small.. Thanks to Chinwi and you. I am also waiting till next warrant conversion. The way mkt goes, We may be able to buy less than Rs.10.. I am waiting the days to come

20% gain in 2-3 years ????? I can't understand the calculation. Pls explain..


OOPS... my bad.. its a TYPO... extremely sorry, who wud wait 2-3 years to get a 20%? he hee..

The min should be 200% with the calculated risk.. Chinwi had explained it in a very simple way os I dont have to waste time.. Smile

Also Chinwi has been prudent enuf to show the vice versa as well.. But what I think is; if REEF trades at 50 in 2015, it could be after a sub div or another right issue..

Rights are not gonna be treated good however..

Ok small.

avatar

Post Tue Jan 31, 2012 12:59 am by manula

@greedy wrote:[
One of the few things that we need to consider when we do comparisons of P/E between different stock markets is that inflation and Interest Rates. Many including me made that mistake in comparing P/E ratios of stock markets ignoring interest rates and inflation.

Same applies when we do comparisons of Current P/E ratios with the past... due consideration to be given for inflation and interest rates.

@greedy ...good point..it is correct but this will affect the all the fundmental shares buying for a long term. We have to follow the inerest rats, inflation etc.. not only the company growth..

avatar

Post Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:46 pm by WildBear

time to look back at REEF group with bullish signals on Leisure sector and positive news all areound.

I guess REEF.N or REEF.W19 still didin't get any momentum during current utrend.

Worth looking at last quarter financials of REEF and REEF warrants.

What you guys think, will
REEF group reach above expectations in coming months ?

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