BFL - Current Price

EXPERTS WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT BFL CURRENT PRICE? THIS SHARE WAS TRADED ABOVE RS 200 FOR A LONGER PERIOD. BUT WHAT HAPPENED TO THAT SHARE? ALTHOUGH THE MARKET RECOVERED IT HASNT RECOVERED YET. IS IT GOOD TO HOLD OR SELL?

Hold

If you are with excess cash buy at this price levels and hold it for about a year. It is capable of giving you a better return than most of the other counters.

thanks a lot

PhilipW wrote:If you are with excess cash buy at this price levels and hold it for about a year. It is capable of giving you a better return than most of the other counters.

yes try and avg to current MP. we may see another upswing you can sell around 285/- and next by 75 range if falls

IMO, BFL performance will depend on GRAN performance. And that will depend on the price of maize(corn). Internationally corn prices are still very high & i am not sure if GRAN is making their own corn.

mono wrote:IMO, BFL performance will depend on GRAN performance. And that will depend on the price of maize(corn). Internationally corn prices are still very high & i am not sure if GRAN is making their own corn.

I belive bfl has their own local supply of maize. (partial supply that is). Where as gran is more heavily dependent on global prices.

slstock wrote:

mono wrote:IMO, BFL performance will depend on GRAN performance. And that will depend on the price of maize(corn). Internationally corn prices are still very high & i am not sure if GRAN is making their own corn.

I belive bfl has their own local supply of maize. (partial supply that is). Where as gran is more heavily dependent on global prices.

I know that, but BFL will not move on it's own. GRAN needs to move for BFL to move.

mono wrote:

slstock wrote:

mono wrote:IMO, BFL performance will depend on GRAN performance. And that will depend on the price of maize(corn). Internationally corn prices are still very high & i am not sure if GRAN is making their own corn.

I belive bfl has their own local supply of maize. (partial supply that is). Where as gran is more heavily dependent on global prices.

I know that, but BFL will not move on it's own. GRAN needs to move for BFL to move.

once bfl was pack leader now it seems to be gran.
so performance you are talking about is share price . I thought earning performance

Do you see prospects in GRAN AND TAFL AND highly undervalued BFL. look at the prospects in future not present

BFL director Mr M N M Ilyas has sold around 28,000 shares. Director was holding 1.6 million shares as of 3rd Quarter.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/591331897460_.pdf

What could be the reason for him to sell this undervalued share (as of past earnings) at almost 52wk lowest price. Is the director in urgent cash need or is there any thing else which we don't know. However, BFL has produced reasonably good financial report in 3rd quarter.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t16521-bfl-current-price#111298
If possible merge these two threads for future discussion.

CSE.SAS wrote:http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t16521-bfl-current-price#111298
If possible merge these two threads for future discussion.

Merged

Monster wrote:BFL director Mr M N M Ilyas has sold around 28,000 shares. Director was holding 1.6 million shares as of 3rd Quarter.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/591331897460_.pdf

What could be the reason for him to sell this undervalued share (as of past earnings) at almost 52wk lowest price. Is the director in urgent cash need or is there any thing else which we don't know. However, BFL has produced reasonably good financial report in 3rd quarter.

28000 out of 1.6 million is bite size. Who know maybe for his family vacation. But if not, it is interesting that he wanted to sell at this time. Hmm.. Can we have a surprise in March?

But we are yet to see the real effects of their farm expansion. If they can control their feed ( maize) costs they should be ahead of the pack. Maybe their annual report might give more info. Right now even if BFL report Rs 3-4 next quarter it is currently trading at PE of 6-7. The company balances are also healthy right now. This share has come down from Rs 500 to Rs 130+ , not sure the company is in that bad state even deserve to drop this drastic. Having said that it can drop more if the bear continues irrespective of the fundamentals. Iam yet to understand why PLC deserves a price of RS 11 except for the foriegn selling. Just like bul over values shares bear can undervlaue them until the bull starts.


Let wait and see annual report and march quarter.

[quote="slstock"]

Monster wrote:Can we have a surprise in March?

Dear slstock, the surprise you expect a positive one or negative one ?

slstock wrote:

Monster wrote:BFL director Mr M N M Ilyas has sold around 28,000 shares. Director was holding 1.6 million shares as of 3rd Quarter.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/591331897460_.pdf

What could be the reason for him to sell this undervalued share (as of past earnings) at almost 52wk lowest price. Is the director in urgent cash need or is there any thing else which we don't know. However, BFL has produced reasonably good financial report in 3rd quarter.

28000 out of 1.6 million is bite size. Who know maybe for his family vacation. But if not, it is interesting that he wanted to sell at this time. Hmm.. Can we have a surprise in March?

But we are yet to see the real effects of their farm expansion. If they can control their feed ( maize) costs they should be ahead of the pack. Maybe their annual report might give more info. Right now even if BFL report Rs 3-4 next quarter it is currently trading at PE of 6-7. The company balances are also healthy right now. This share has come down from Rs 500 to Rs 130+ , not sure the company is in that bad state even deserve to drop this drastic. Having said that it can drop more if the bear continues irrespective of the fundamentals. Iam yet to understand why PLC deserves a price of RS 11 except for the foriegn selling. Just like bul over values shares bear can undervlaue them until the bull starts.


Let wait and see annual report and march quarter.

The same director has disposed another 14,000 shares.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/9961332847088_452.pdf

We cannot come to a decision that the directors are always correct when they buy or sell. However, it could be an indication about the current situation. Do you think the fourth quarter result may not be good as previous quarters?

Monster wrote:

slstock wrote:

Monster wrote:BFL director Mr M N M Ilyas has sold around 28,000 shares. Director was holding 1.6 million shares as of 3rd Quarter.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/591331897460_.pdf

What could be the reason for him to sell this undervalued share (as of past earnings) at almost 52wk lowest price. Is the director in urgent cash need or is there any thing else which we don't know. However, BFL has produced reasonably good financial report in 3rd quarter.

28000 out of 1.6 million is bite size. Who know maybe for his family vacation. But if not, it is interesting that he wanted to sell at this time. Hmm.. Can we have a surprise in March?

But we are yet to see the real effects of their farm expansion. If they can control their feed ( maize) costs they should be ahead of the pack. Maybe their annual report might give more info. Right now even if BFL report Rs 3-4 next quarter it is currently trading at PE of 6-7. The company balances are also healthy right now. This share has come down from Rs 500 to Rs 130+ , not sure the company is in that bad state even deserve to drop this drastic. Having said that it can drop more if the bear continues irrespective of the fundamentals. Iam yet to understand why PLC deserves a price of RS 11 except for the foriegn selling. Just like bul over values shares bear can undervlaue them until the bull starts.


Let wait and see annual report and march quarter.

The same director has disposed another 14,000 shares.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/9961332847088_452.pdf

We cannot come to a decision that the directors are always correct when they buy or sell. However, it could be an indication about the current situation. Do you think fourth quarter result may not be good as previous quarters?

Guess March will not be strong as Dec just based on the volumes. The issue is can it beat March 2011. But we do not know yet how the new farm revenue profit gets combined. We still didn't see an impact on the new farm revenues on top line. Also saw that Januaray overall Maize imports have gone down. Less maize imports can mean different things. More local production and lesser cost ( good) or poultry is reducing revenue (not doin so good) due to high prices in maize etc.

Yesterday itself I think over 100000 BFl shares got traded . So there is interest presently.

Not sure about short term but BFl certainly is now attractive for somebody who can hold for a proper run. In the short term it can come down too if results are bad, so It is bit of a gamble. But still amazed how a Rs 500 share can come down to Rs 130 in such short time. ( irrespetive of manipulation or name BFL ) Welcome to CSE right? Overall if their expansion keep going and their cost cutting procedures gets better BFl is atleast around Rs 20 eps company now. ( barring anything unforeseen which cannot be ruled out ) . I do not want to sound like "another" , but if we leave religious and ethical factors alone, chicken and eggs is something people will eat more with time .and more foriegn influx ( if we believe in it) if price are reasonable.

But poultry industry right now in Sri Lanka is not doing so good epsecially for small timer farmer I read. Guess controlled farms like BFl and TAFL/GRAN can reap benefits if they can control their cost of production.

Short term, things can go eitherway depending on market conditions as with other shares.

Side note :
Interestingly I was looking at cost of CHicken in different countries. Sri lankan prices are not exorbitant compared to world. But issue is family income in Sri Lanka. Guess some of Asia countries like India and Bangladesh and some south american countries can beat us but other countries the average price is more specially for specialized process chicken. In USA if there is a sale of chicken then one can get very cheap but normal price is about $3-4 a Kg. ( not breasts) . I saw in UAE paper, chicken breast ( boneless skiness) can go for AED 20 for 500g ! And escalating food cost there is an issue. Now sure how much in Kuwait Monster?

So one way to make more money for these companies is to produce specialized and processed pountry products.
If one goes for "natural or free range , no hormone kind" they can charge very high prices.

slstock wrote:
Side note :
Interestingly I was looking at cost of CHicken in different countries. Sri lankan prices are not exorbitant compared to world. But issue is family income in Sri Lanka. Guess some of Asia countries like India and Bangladesh and some south american countries can beat us but other countries the average price is more specially for specialized process chicken. In USA if there is a sale of chicken then one can get very cheap but normal price is about $3-4 a Kg. ( not breasts) . I saw in UAE paper, chicken breast ( boneless skiness) can go for AED 20 for 500g ! And escalating food cost there is an issue. Now sure how much in Kuwait Monster?

So one way to make more money for these companies is to produce specialized and processed pountry products.
If one goes for "natural or free range , no hormone kind" they can charge very high prices.

Honestly I do not know the cost of chicken in Sri Lanka. In Kuwait, if you buy one chicken, it will be expensive. However, you have an option to buy one pack, which contains 12 frozen chickens. One pack cost between Kuwaiti Dinar 6 - 9 (1KWD = 467LKR). Currently, "Sadia", a Brazilian product, is the popular brand in the Middle East. I assume, chicken is expensive in Sri Lanka than Kuwait!

Ohh I would like to make my portfolio 100% BFL at 130.

Monster wrote:

slstock wrote:
Side note :
Interestingly I was looking at cost of CHicken in different countries. Sri lankan prices are not exorbitant compared to world. But issue is family income in Sri Lanka. Guess some of Asia countries like India and Bangladesh and some south american countries can beat us but other countries the average price is more specially for specialized process chicken. In USA if there is a sale of chicken then one can get very cheap but normal price is about $3-4 a Kg. ( not breasts) . I saw in UAE paper, chicken breast ( boneless skiness) can go for AED 20 for 500g ! And escalating food cost there is an issue. Now sure how much in Kuwait Monster?

So one way to make more money for these companies is to produce specialized and processed pountry products.
If one goes for "natural or free range , no hormone kind" they can charge very high prices.

Honestly I do not know the cost of chicken in Sri Lanka. In Kuwait, if you buy one chicken, it will be expensive. However, you have an option to buy one pack, which contains 12 frozen chickens. One pack cost between Kuwaiti Dinar 6 - 9 (1KWD = 467LKR). Currently, "Sadia", a Brazilian product, is the popular brand in the Middle East. I assume, chicken is expensive in Sri Lanka than Kuwait!

I do not know exactly the price , but it was around RS 350 Kg ( whole chicken) in SL. South American chicken seems definitely cheaper. SL was also trying to import from South America one time right?

Seems like the maize/COP in Sri Lanka is still very high. If they can grow their own maize ( like what BFL was trying to do) think poultry profits can be improved much. Presently it is still big issue.

Maize cost appears increasing in world market. See attached image below. 50% cess should be added to the cost. However, I think BFL produces maize for their own farms.

greedy wrote:Maize cost appears increasing in world market. See attached image below. 50% cess should be added to the cost. However, I think BFL produces maize for their own farms.

Thanks greedy. Any source for the chart for reference?

slstock wrote:

greedy wrote:Maize cost appears increasing in world market. See attached image below. 50% cess should be added to the cost. However, I think BFL produces maize for their own farms.

Thanks greedy. Any source for the chart for reference?

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=corn&months=60

If anyone interested to see impact of maize cost increase in cost of production, this is how a broiler chicken eat .