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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » Valuation of popular plantations

Valuation of popular plantations

+7
aship
Max
Paypal
kam2011
chamith
Rajitha
smallville
11 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Valuation of popular plantations Empty Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 4:56 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Valuation of popular plantations Planta11

I surprisingly have found the plantations sector PE has come down as @ 25-03-11.. Hence I just had a quick revaluation on the most popular counters in this sector.
Here's a screen shot of my calculations..Also with this I'm giving you all in one comparison with adjusted figures. You can what counters are performing well at current prices and the valuation based on the last qtr results..

All the figures are taken after deducting "Other income" & "minority interest" portions from the quarterly reports, therefore; yu may see slight difference in stated figures and my figures. So I've indicated the company announced EPS (wherever necessary Annualized) and my calculation as well..The purpose of removing such income was to find out how much the core business is thriving without any other income.

Hope this will be useful for your investment decisions...Also my original valuation on two most prominent counters still remain same Wink

Note:- To have a better view, you have to save this image to your PC.. cuz the last part is not displayed due to forum restrictions I think.

Need your views on this as well and pls Do more analysis... Razz



Last edited by Quibit on Sun Mar 27, 2011 9:31 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Width of the Picture adjusted to 550 Pixel)

2Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 5:13 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yes KAGL,NAMU and HOPL are way undervalued counter ATM.
BTW although AGAL seems to be fairly valued already from just considering its PE its not when you consider other factors!
AGAL have huge Plam oil crop that is about to kick in( Will be able to see in next quarter reports)!
Another 857(Ha) of rubber + 225(Ha) of oil palm immature crop!
Also its subs started converted to have profits from last quarter.
Most of the shares are locked up with people who does not want to sell them!


3Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 5:38 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Rajitha wrote: Yes KAGL,NAMU and HOPL are way undervalued counter ATM.
BTW although AGAL seems to be fairly valued already from just considering its PE its not when you consider other factors!
AGAL have huge Plam oil crop that is about to kick in( Will be able to see in next quarter reports)!
Another 857(Ha) of rubber + 225(Ha) of oil palm immature crop!
Also its subs started converted to have profits from last quarter.
Most of the shares are locked up with people who does not want to sell them!



Thanks Rajitha, I was a bit skeptical on AGAL at first.. have to check on that more.. Isn't AGAL's palm contribution is lower?
How much would you consider in PAT growth for KGAL, NAMU & HOPL in the coming qtrs?

4Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 6:38 pm

chamith

chamith
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Good analysis
+ rep from me...

According to Asia wealth management research, EPS for some plantations are:

.............NAMU..........KGAL
2008...........9.7...........16.8
2009...........1.7........... 8.2
2010...........6.2.......... 15.0
2011E........19.4.......... 31.3

NAMU has well diversified portfolio in tea, rubber and oil palm. You can download the full research report using the following link.

NAMU - CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD

5Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 6:58 pm

kam2011


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Excellent! Thank u for your analysis Smallville. In fact Very useful study.

6Valuation of popular plantations Empty Plantation sector Sat Mar 26, 2011 7:55 pm

Paypal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Great Analysis, Thank you Smile

I would like to go for KGAL than other shares. There is a possibility for a Plantation sector rally again with the end of this month. What do you think guys?

7Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:26 am

Max


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@smallville wrote:
@Rajitha wrote: Yes KAGL,NAMU and HOPL are way undervalued counter ATM.
BTW although AGAL seems to be fairly valued already from just considering its PE its not when you consider other factors!
AGAL have huge Plam oil crop that is about to kick in( Will be able to see in next quarter reports)!
Another 857(Ha) of rubber + 225(Ha) of oil palm immature crop!
Also its subs started converted to have profits from last quarter.
Most of the shares are locked up with people who does not want to sell them!



Thanks Rajitha, I was a bit skeptical on AGAL at first.. have to check on that more.. Isn't AGAL's palm contribution is lower?
How much would you consider in PAT growth for KGAL, NAMU & HOPL in the coming qtrs?

I personally think that the last quarter earnings of agalawatte should be more than what is stated...maybe it will reflect in this quarter results...
My 2 cents....

8Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re-Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:58 am

aship

aship
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Hi Smallville,

Thank you for the valuable info.

Pls let me know how did you take the Sector P/E as at 25/03/2011

Old P/E is available in the CSE site.

Thanks

9Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 10:12 am

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Great evaluation!!
I am convinced to invest in more plantation stocks!! HOPL and KOTA my picks! I am expecting better than forecast results for KOTA in Q4.

10Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:50 am

dr aruna


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
but last quoter heavy rainfall and coming wedge hike even rubber plantation s are not attractive

11Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 12:59 pm

shan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
MADU NAVPS 72.70 coming first quarter results they have profits.

12Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:40 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Here's my PE table taken from CSE.LK as @ 25-03-11
Valuation of popular plantations Sector11

I just checked some oil-palm reviews, so as Rajitha implied, I think AGAL will have a good Q1/2011 due to oil palm price hike..

Dr. Aruna,
Last rainy season was in Q4/2010, and results are already included here.. whats not yet disclosed is Q1 profits.. in other words, End of financial year results form most plantations...Rubber plantations are least affected by wage hike.. its only Tea.. So u can see that I've avoided analyzing of Tea only plantations.. My main bullish factor depends on Rubber & Oil-Palm.

Quibi.. Better than KOTA, I'd urge you to look at HOPL & AGAL more... Wink


PLs note that this analysis is on current eranings basis, I've not assumed the Q1/2011 results to be 10-20% increase and do the math.. There's no hypothesis...
So this valuation is valid only for the current earnings.. Now if u carefullt observer, u can find that some plantation prices are absurdly lower now that their earnings..Even at 30-50% discounts to sector PE, those are trading low..Those are the real undervalued counters.. And some as I mentioned will have growth even if not undervalued, due to increasing raw prices..

Real investors should now realize the value of these plantations and we've seen some collection going on as well..



Last edited by Quibit on Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:37 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Width of the Picture adjusted to 550 Pixel)

13Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 7:36 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:

Thanks Rajitha, I was a bit skeptical on AGAL at first.. have to check on that more.. Isn't AGAL's palm contribution is lower?
How much would you consider in PAT growth for KGAL, NAMU & HOPL in the coming qtrs?

hi man! Well AGAL ATM have 939 (Ha) of Mature cultivated Palm oil and 225(Ha) of Immature Palm oil! So thats quite high compared with others and as a leader in the field NAMU also only got 1200(Ha) and they expecting to have it to be 1600(Ha) by 2016. But i would say by then AGAL would have more than NAMU!
AS a % wise also the their Palm oil crop is quite good as the rubber mature extent is 3453 and for Tea 1465! They keep taking off tea and planting rubber + palm oil. Not the mention the huge land available to them for the replanting compared with other plantations!
Just FYI check who's land the join venture palm oil miss is situated at!
Anyway I have all 3 ELPL,NAMU, AGAL and I expect a bright future for all palm oil plantations!

14Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 10:43 pm

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
You know why I think KOTA is good becos they will make 1 bn profit for the year end.... 31st March 2011, Which means EPS more than Rs 30/= Price @ 20 PER will make KOTA share worth more than Rs 600/=. I don't want Rs 600/=............ give me Rs 300/=

Btw, I understand why LDEV not in the evaluation. I will always buy AGARAPATNA PLANTATION (LDEV)... @ any price below Rs 70/=... you guys have not yet seen the value of LDEV. Can anyone guess Agrapatna (LDEV) profits for the year end?

My picks still remain HOPL, KOTA, LDEV (agrapatna plantation)

15Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:06 pm

Meta Trader

Meta Trader
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
this was a much needed update man. + from me. Twisted Evil

well i sold majority of other shares at the peak but HOPL
even when it was at above 90 level i didn't sell it .
instinct i guess Wink

16Valuation of popular plantations Empty Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:23 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:You know why I think KOTA is good becos they will make 1 bn profit for the year end.... 31st March 2011, Which means EPS more than Rs 30/= Price @ 20 PER will make KOTA share worth more than Rs 600/=. I don't want Rs 600/=............ give me Rs 300/=

Btw, I understand why LDEV not in the evaluation. I will always buy AGARAPATNA PLANTATION (LDEV)... @ any price below Rs 70/=... you guys have not yet seen the value of LDEV. Can anyone guess Agrapatna (LDEV) profits for the year end?

My picks still remain HOPL, KOTA, LDEV (agrapatna plantation)

If KOTA can reach 1B target, KGAL is bound to reach more than that.. cuz KGAL already has 490Mn for last 3qtrs and KOTA only has 397Mn up to now..
I'm not saying that KOTA cant, but being a lankem plantation, it has its potential too.. but we cant forget KGAL on the quest as its backed by Richard Peiris plantations.

I'd hope if all these plantations have its values come closer to sector price rather than a discount to reflect their true values..

I didnt leave out LDEV purposely, I was not impressed with it so didnt go for it due to this sister company transfer and asking money from minority share holders to finance it Wink .. So whats to special abt this Agarapathana?

Also ELPL was missing.. So now I need to add those two as well Wink

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