A list of 'Secret' shares

hunter · 1 A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 4:57 pm

hunter

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There is no secret at all. Did some calculations based on the published data and did a very simple technical analysis.
(I am not an expert in either subject. But)
I believe the list is worthwhile discussing upon. So here we go.

(PS: Pls disregard BRWN; it goes out of the list with the latest report)

A list of 'Secret' shares List_a10

Legend:
Mkt Price - Last traded price
Support - Estimated short/medium term support price level
Est. Value - This is the value of the share given by a little complicated calculation considering the performance of the company
Reward-Risk - Simply the difference between the expected gain and loss by buying at Mkat Price; can be interpritted as the expected profit in short/medium terms

The list is open for discussions. There is no recommendation at all.
In my case: I am holding some of the shares in the list and not holding the rest.

Last edited by hunter on Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:38 pm; edited 1 time in total

Antonym · 2 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:14 pm

Antonym

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Your approach is interesting.

But it is important that you explain how Est. Value and Reward-Risk have been calculated.
And also, why these 12 shares have been selected for your analysis.

anu · 3 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:16 pm

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Good work. Even on fundamentals most of these shares will qualify to be valuable medium term buys. Thanks

pathfinder · 4 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:18 pm

pathfinder

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A very good analysis of fundamentals.At the moment plantations and motors at the back seat due to wage hike and tax issue.RENU, CDB doing well,but BRWN is not doing well.
BTW Can you explain the calculation of est.value

Jiggysaurus · 5 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:19 pm

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You need to disclose your secret calculation for estimated value otherwise the list is worthless.
Someone else can come with a list for crap shares saying estimated value is 1,000 and he came up with it using a secret formula.

smallville · 6 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:28 pm

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Tru enuf... Selection is good.. We need to know how the estimated value has been achieved and the formula being used..

Thanks for the initiation..

Slstock · 7 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:48 pm

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This market is presenting many shares that can gain 50 to even 200% gain in a true bull run. You list certainly contains some of them. BRWN though NAV is high and is a good company with a reputation really need to look at their internal management structure. Lately their earnings are not "genuine" cash from operations ( revaluation, goodwill based mostly) .

Not sure what the method you used, but if COLO can gain 200% there are others in the same list which can easily gain closer to that.

I think it will be good if you atleast can disclose partly your basis for this valuation ( if you cannot reveal total)

BTW, I think this thread might attract lot of hits. Wink

hunter · 8 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 6:09 pm

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Thanks all for the constructive feedback.
I will try to clarify as much as possible. The learning will be both ways I believe.

* It seems all understand the support price level - (That was the most subjective/ 'could be controversial' part) Laughing

* 'Value' calculation is purely based on NAV and 'average' EPS (so if there has been any non-accurate reports, as mentioned in case of BRWN, this need to be recalculated.
* Value = The lower value of (two weighted averages between (NAVPS, 10*'average annual' EPS)); 'average annual' EPS is based on the weighted average of most recent 8 quarterly EPS. (In some cases, non operational earnings are disregarded)
* The list of shares are picked IF 'Reward-Risk' is more than 50% AND technical analysis shows a medium term uptrend (uptrend is kick started).
* There were counters showing high 'value' OR strong uptrend, but since BOTH conditions were not met, not included in the list.
* The list is dynamic, conditions may change in few days time.

(Hope I have made things clear to some extent)
PS: Didn't do any spell check here, pls tell me if things are not clear.

Last edited by hunter on Fri Aug 31, 2012 6:32 pm; edited 2 times in total

pathfinder · 9 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 6:29 pm

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Thanks friend,can you please show up a example of calculation with real numbers.

Redbulls · 10 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:25 pm

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Thanks mate for the info provided.
Well done.

slstock wrote:
BTW, I think this thread might attract lot of hits.

I'm not that much sure, if this thread mention about the crap shares your comment is more valid. lol!

hunter · 11 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:40 pm

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(PS: Pls disregard BRWN; it goes out of the list with the latest report)
Just received BRWN latest report. It goes out of the list.

Now, my new 'value' is far below than the mentioned one.

sureshot · 12 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:50 pm

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hunter .....matchan any other shares left in your portfolio ?
dont u have any Touchwood Sad

Slstock · 13 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:51 pm

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hunter wrote:(PS: Pls disregard BRWN; it goes out of the list with the latest report)
Just received BRWN latest report. It goes out of the list.

Now, my new 'value' is far below than the mentioned one.

BRWN can easily run beyond your estimate in a bull. But Yes, as i mentioned before, BRWN earnings are shaky.

hunter · 14 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:55 pm

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sureshot wrote:hunter .....matchan any other shares left in your portfolio ?
dont u have any Touchwood

Ha haa
It is the first in one criteria. But not convinced with other so not included. But things can change.

RIO · 15 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 8:53 pm

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slstock wrote:

hunter wrote:(PS: Pls disregard BRWN; it goes out of the list with the latest report)
Just received BRWN latest report. It goes out of the list.

Now, my new 'value' is far below than the mentioned one.

BRWN can easily run beyond your estimate in a bull. But Yes, as i mentioned before, BRWN earnings are shaky.

The fact about BRWN earning is true... Sad

BY the way I smell some structural change at BRWN, Think in future BRWN will tap the Electronics Market in SL with new Branding "BG" and with competitive prices than the "SHARP Brand" what they sold earlier... Now "BG" is their own Brand and with the way of new media campaign Launched...I guess they are trying to compete with "SAMSUNG" [Soft Logic]... Very Happy

Lets see how the management is going to generate more income for 2012/2013.... Shocked

opfdo · 16 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:56 pm

opfdo

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RIO wrote:

slstock wrote:

hunter wrote:(PS: Pls disregard BRWN; it goes out of the list with the latest report)
Just received BRWN latest report. It goes out of the list.

Now, my new 'value' is far below than the mentioned one.

BRWN can easily run beyond your estimate in a bull. But Yes, as i mentioned before, BRWN earnings are shaky.

The fact about BRWN earning is true...

BY the way I smell some structural change at BRWN, Think in future BRWN will tap the Electronics Market in SL with new Branding "BG" and with competitive prices than the "SHARP Brand" what they sold earlier... Now "BG" is their own Brand and with the way of new media campaign Launched...I guess they are trying to compete with "SAMSUNG" [Soft Logic]...

Lets see how the management is going to generate more income for 2012/2013....

thank you hunter for your analysis.
BRWN made a loss in the first QT .

smallville · 17 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:09 am

smallville

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RIO,

Is this new brand "BG" a Sri Lankan made or a brought down from China or Thailand, any news? Or is it like parts are brought from various sources and assemble in SL?

A lot of guys just paste the badge to a Chinese product happily. If order qty is high, China or Thailand markets would do that for you even Wink

K.Haputantri · 18 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Sat Sep 01, 2012 11:38 am

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Hunter, thank you for the educative post.

RIO · 19 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Sat Sep 01, 2012 1:15 pm

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smallville wrote:RIO,

Is this new brand "BG" a Sri Lankan made or a brought down from China or Thailand, any news? Or is it like parts are brought from various sources and assemble in SL?

A lot of guys just paste the badge to a Chinese product happily. If order qty is high, China or Thailand markets would do that for you even

I guess this is the same "SHARP PRODUCT" coming under "BG" Brand Name ...but I do'nt have any Idea where exactly these "BG" are made...!

The Price difference is due to the marketing & Pricing formula which will eliminate the "SHARP" Global Brand & Good Will cost.... Very Happy

SHARP is a good & reliable Brand, but due to high prices compared to other competitors, they were unable to tap a considerable portion of the Local Electronics Market & changed into a new "BG" name with intention of bringing down the prices & give a though competition to the present market leaders...we will have to adopt a wait & see method to identify if this Re-branding will give any advantage on tapping & expanding BRWN Electronics stake in the Local Electronics market... Very Happy

Some Hilarious decisions on Re Branding have worked for many companies in SL, the best example is ROCEL, but same time some have not given expected returns as well as some have made the things worse.... Very Happy

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A list of 'Secret' shares

1 A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 4:57 pm

hunter

2 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:14 pm

Antonym

3 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:16 pm

anu

4 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:18 pm

pathfinder

5 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:19 pm

Jiggysaurus

6 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:28 pm

smallville

7 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:48 pm

Slstock

8 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 6:09 pm

hunter

9 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 6:29 pm

pathfinder

10 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:25 pm

Redbulls

11 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:40 pm

hunter

12 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:50 pm

sureshot

13 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:51 pm

Slstock

14 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:55 pm

hunter

15 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 8:53 pm

RIO

16 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:56 pm

opfdo

17 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:09 am

smallville

18 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Sat Sep 01, 2012 11:38 am

K.Haputantri

19 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares Sat Sep 01, 2012 1:15 pm

RIO

20 Re: A list of 'Secret' shares

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