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NTB : a Growing bank.

5 posters

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1NTB : a Growing bank. Empty NTB : a Growing bank. Wed Sep 05, 2012 6:13 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Guys NTB was one of the shares I did my first analysis on when forum had few hundred people. Way back in Januaray 2011 .


Time to revisit NTB. This is not a buy recommendation to jump in. This is a "Investor" share which will not move 40% a day .

Recently this had a move up from Rs 46 to Rs 58. It can pull back a bit if market drops as RSI is high. But collection interest is there as i saw larger orders coming in.


Note :
*DFCC also bought 10% stake at Rs 58.
*
JKH and CFIN will have to reduce stake to 15% at some point . They already asked for an extension few months ago possibly due to bear market. When the news come again this share can gain more interest and selling price I presume will be higher than now.
* dividend yield is about 5% at present


Once this share hit Rs 110 in the mad bull market.
NTB is one of the more attractive growing banks still. Prices have come down due to bear market like other shares.

Also note there was Warrant issue last year , so the current earning include growth on new shares.



Last 2 quarter EPS of NTB x 2 = 3.87 x 2 = 7.75
NAV is around 39.


At around 2 PBV this is worth around Rs 80
On PE basis with 10 it is about Rs 80 again roughly;


With future growth ( many branches were opened and they might start gaining profit slowly) this is a mic cap bank with good management which can turn a COMB is few year time.


The whole banking sector is undervalued compared to market. So there are also other good banking/fin shares like LFIN,CFIN, SAMP, CDB ( I might go a small analysis on this later) etc etc



Last edited by slstock on Wed Sep 05, 2012 6:25 pm; edited 1 time in total

2NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Wed Sep 05, 2012 6:19 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

BTW I have some NTB with me.

Also if this thread make a lot of hits I will be surprised, Not sure how many investors are there.

3NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Wed Sep 05, 2012 7:09 pm

hawklk


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

My Analysis of NTB and Sampath

Company: NTB - The Bank

Current Data

Price: 58.00
EPS: 6.01
DPS: 2.10
BVPS: 33.72
P/E: 9.7
Earnings Yield: 10.4%
Dividend Yield: 3.6%
P/BV: 1.7

Annually Compounded Rates of Growth (5 year)
EPS 24.9%
DPS 16.0%
BVPS 10.9%

Annually Compounded Rates of Growth (3 year)
EPS 26.8%
DPS 11.9%
BVPS 12.8%

Five Year Average
Return on Equity: 16.1%
Payout Ratio: 40.4%
P/E Ratio-High: 14.8
P/E Ratio-Low: 7.5
P/E Ratio: 11.2
Sustainable Growth 9.6%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sampath Bank

Company: Sampath Bank

Current Data

Price: 189.00
EPS: 26.53
DPS: 9.00
BVPS: 119.77
P/E: 7.1
Earnings Yield: 14.0%
Dividend Yield: 4.8%
P/BV: 1.6

Annually Compounded Rates of Growth (5 year)
EPS 12.2%
DPS 29.2%
BVPS 4.5%

Annually Compounded Rates of Growth (3 year)
EPS 8.9%
DPS 31.0%
BVPS -5.5%

Five Year Average
Return on Equity: 17.9%
Payout Ratio: 30.6%
P/E Ratio-High: 13.1
P/E Ratio-Low: 6.1
P/E Ratio: 9.6
Sustainable Growth 12.4%


Both the bank's ROE for five years is around 16 to 17 which is said to be a good management of funds, growth and performance.

4NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Wed Sep 05, 2012 7:16 pm

hawklk


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Please note that the above analysis were made from figures obtained from 2011 annual reports.

5NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Wed Sep 05, 2012 7:30 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

hawklk,
Kindly confirm that the above analysis is based on audited report.
Thanks

6NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Wed Sep 05, 2012 7:44 pm

hawklk


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

worthiness wrote:hawklk,
Kindly confirm that the above analysis is based on audited report.
Thanks

NTB 2011 Annual Report Page number 135 and 153
Sampath 2011 Annual Report Page number 12 and 173

Page no 153 and 173 the auditors letter confirms that the financial statements have been audited as of 31 December 2011.

7NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Wed Sep 05, 2012 7:46 pm

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Definitely this a share for mid term investors. Few strengths:

1. Mid cap bank with backing from CFIN and JKH.
2.Not too aggressive in lending policies like PABC or SEYB.
3. Fairly good financials with decent ratios as mentioned by slstock and hawklk.
4. In a booming market will get the support of foreingn investment, as foreigners will target growing banks with good potential.

In mid-tern, can expect to touch and surpass 80.00

8NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Wed Sep 05, 2012 8:17 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

There is a net work error in down loading both NTB & SAMP annual reports for the year 2011 from CSE website. What is wrong with that. I have been trying it since it was published.

BTW is it SAMP minus 5.5% BVPS of annually compounded rate of growth ( 3 years) or typo?

9NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Wed Sep 05, 2012 8:54 pm

hawklk


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

worthiness wrote:There is a net work error in down loading both NTB & SAMP annual reports for the year 2011 from CSE website. What is wrong with that. I have been trying it since it was published.

BTW is it SAMP minus 5.5% BVPS of annually compounded rate of growth ( 3 years) or typo?

Year EPS DPS BVPS
2006 14.92 2.50 96.17
2007 15.27 2.78 124.39
2008 20.52 4.00 141.92 ******
2009 13.56 6.25 77.52
2010 22.80 8.09 98.29
2011 26.53 9.00 119.77 *******

Not a typo......2008 and 2011 NAV according to 2011 annual report page no 248

(119.77 / 141.92) ^ (1/3) - 1 = -5.5% (Excel formula with cell formatted to percentage)



10NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Wed Sep 05, 2012 8:58 pm

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

worthiness wrote:There is a net work error in down loading both NTB & SAMP annual reports for the year 2011 from CSE website. What is wrong with that. I have been trying it since it was published.

After getting into "Financials" section, on the report, without double clicking to open, right click and choose "save target as" and save it in your desktop or elsewhere. You can open the saved report.

11NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Wed Sep 05, 2012 9:49 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

hawklk / anu

I appreciate much your assistance extended on my inquiry.


12NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Thu Sep 06, 2012 1:15 am

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Nice work. Thanks for sharing. Would like to have your idea about COMB.X for mid term (2-3 years lest). Anyway COMB is not depreciated in the down trend like any other banking share as far as i see.
Can we compare two banks which one will likely give high return.

13NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:58 am

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Business volume & branch network concerned, SAMP is leading in the bank sector. So, comparison becomes a bit difficult rather assessing individual valuation.
Your comment please.

14NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:17 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

BTW I read somewhere ( to be confirmed) they might be also receiving around $35 million from a abroad this month. This will increase their Capital adequacy ratios ( they are already comfortable) further and also their lending can go up to 23% growth instead of 18%.

More info for NTB lovers.

15NTB : a Growing bank. Empty Re: NTB : a Growing bank. Mon Oct 01, 2012 1:52 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics


Note also JKH and CFIN has to divest 15% to 5% NTB shares minimum according to regulation.

There have been rather decent collections of NTB in the recent weeks. Presume NTB decent performance and this anticipation is driving interest for it.

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