Have you ever seeing the rain ?

Dear Rainmaker,
I am intrigued by your wide repertoire of information. you seem like a seasoned player !
Pls tell us your favourite Picks (Stocks) on the CSE. 3rd Q results are now out. What are the stocks we should be looking out for ? How does 2013 augur for the CSE ? What is your Strategy for the Market ?
Thanks in advance.

Dear Alchemist
Sorry to barge in but this is an interesting topic and although you hv addressed this to Rainmaker, it would be great if other seasoned and knowledgeable members also contributed. I hope you dont mind. I hv been following several members (one of them being you) who in my opinion are pretty knowledgeable and I will list their names and hoping for their comments -
Rainmaker
The Alchemist
Slstock
Antonym
Chinwi
Smallville
Ukboy
Dileepa
Jiggysaurus
Raptor
Kukumarx
klpfernando

@Stefan: I appreciate being described as 'pretty knowledgeable'. However, when in doubt, I consult some of the persons you have listed - namely Alchemist, slstock and Smallville - and others (like traderathome).

My strategy is different, a combination of long term value investing and dividend plays; this would probably not be suited to most of our members.

One suggestion: Try and identify shares that would show supernormal profits in March 2013 financial statements, when SLFRS compels them to revalue investments.

Antonym wrote:@Stefan: I appreciate being described as 'pretty knowledgeable'. However, when in doubt, I consult some of the persons you have listed - namely Alchemist, slstock and Smallville - and others (like traderathome).

My strategy is different, a combination of long term value investing and dividend plays; this would probably not be suited to most of our members.

One suggestion: Try and identify shares that would show supernormal profits in March 2013 financial statements, when SLFRS compels them to revalue investments.

I feel DFCC will report on off huge gain with the Accounting Change from the Banking Sector, as well as Most of the companies having good long term investment portfolio's will report considerable gain

This is my first hand experience;

Once upon a time my favourites were - BFL, DIMO, KGAL, NAMU, PCH, RENU, etc..
I got mixed results holding these but returns were very good other than the occasional stupid re-investments

More importantly, I was handling few other's accounts and bought the same shares for them. Unfortunately few of them had bad results than me due to greediness.
Here are the situations 2 of them faced;

BFL, PCH - huge profits.

KGAL, NAMU - due to greediness, had to settle with very very less, compensated by the good dividends provided.

RENU, DIMO - Mainly my fault. I'd have figured out my timing was damn bad. Almost have got their investment killed. But I still like these two and would like to try at a good time.

The good thing was, I entered BFL & PCH at a lower stage to all these portfolios and those gave all portfolios a huge advantage or leverage to even sell entire portfolios.
Earnings+less debt suggested me to enter BFL in big time and hope of a better management and new markets gave me an idea of getting in to PCH. But I must admit, I was lucky too

So that was past..

Now I'm more interested in REEF.W19, PLC, COCR, FLCH, PAP, MASK and few other shares too... This is with an expectation of 1-3 years holding. But as I said, timing is important. We've discussed about these shares time to time + & - both.
For example, rains affect the hydro sector in a positive way but vice-versa for rubber based plantations.

When we talk about shares, they go up by 1-3 rupees suddenly making us no chance of buying. The people who already bought book profits when we see the potential and tried to enter. So its a really challenging situation talking about one's enthusiastic shares in an open forum like this.

Nevertheless, averaging down in not my favourite. I only do when I'm confident of the share speculatively or fundamentally. But truthfully speaking, we're leveraging a mistake we've done by entering at a certain high. Sometimes, we lose opportunities by doing so hence not advisable at all.

Note - I currently hold REEF.W19 and FLCH small quantities. And this is not a buy/sell recon.
What I do may suit me, others may have diff strategies and diff levels of holding power.

I know RENU has been a serious under performer and very very slow. But if DFCC moves big time in the future we should also rememebr about RENU having almost 1 DFCC per RENU in their portfolio.

Added to that numerous other good shares + their core and other earnings.

I would also look at consistently higher dividend paying companies , including in the penny stock cateogy/

Gaja wrote:

Antonym wrote:@Stefan: I appreciate being described as 'pretty knowledgeable'. However, when in doubt, I consult some of the persons you have listed - namely Alchemist, slstock and Smallville - and others (like traderathome).

My strategy is different, a combination of long term value investing and dividend plays; this would probably not be suited to most of our members.

One suggestion: Try and identify shares that would show supernormal profits in March 2013 financial statements, when SLFRS compels them to revalue investments.

I feel DFCC will report on off huge gain with the Accounting Change from the Banking Sector, as well as Most of the companies having good long term investment portfolio's will report considerable gain

What will happen in the next few months will be interesting to see. It is most likely that Litro Gas will be listed along with a People's Bank US$500M debenture.

After this, SLIC will private place at least 30% of its equity before listing in 2014. But definitely SLIC will list after Litro.

rainmaker wrote:What will happen in the next few months will be interesting to see. It is most likely that Litro Gas will be listed along with a People's Bank US$500M debenture.

After this, SLIC will private place at least 30% of its equity before listing in 2014. But definitely SLIC will list after Litro.

Thanks for the heads up on the IPO scene.
Besides liking Laughs and Dimo, being wary of CDB and Power producers like PAP, what else do you like or dislike.
Please tell us.

I won't tell you what I'm gunning down because the market will move and I haven't gone long yet. But there is one firm that is heavily undervalued.

rainmaker wrote:I won't tell you what I'm gunning down because the market will move and I haven't gone long yet. But there is one firm that is heavily undervalued.

Any hint?

I am looking at export oriented company which is under the umbrella of major conglomeration.

rainmaker wrote:I won't tell you what I'm gunning down because the market will move and I haven't gone long yet. But there is one firm that is heavily undervalued.

The suspense is killing me ! fair enough, but pls go long soon and then tell us ok ? Could it be that you may be over-estimating the impact of your stock selection on moving the market ? Just a thought only.

The Alchemist wrote:

rainmaker wrote:I won't tell you what I'm gunning down because the market will move and I haven't gone long yet. But there is one firm that is heavily undervalued.

The suspense is killing me ! fair enough, but pls go long soon and then tell us ok ? Could it be that  you may be over-estimating the impact of your stock selection on moving the market ? Just a thought only.  

The firm was Sunshine Holdings ..... it was trading at 25 levels and now needs to correct. It's still a very well managed firm

rainmaker wrote:

The Alchemist wrote:

rainmaker wrote:I won't tell you what I'm gunning down because the market will move and I haven't gone long yet. But there is one firm that is heavily undervalued.

The suspense is killing me ! fair enough, but pls go long soon and then tell us ok ? Could it be that  you may be over-estimating the impact of your stock selection on moving the market ? Just a thought only.  

The firm was Sunshine Holdings ..... it was trading at 25 levels and now needs to correct. It's still a very well managed firm

Aha ! Rainmaker making hay while the sun shines, i see ! like Wilmar and the Flinstones
There is a pretty upset and unhappy large shareholder of WATA like someone who watches out for Minority Shareholders rights !
According to him, The Sunshine boys did a major number on the Wata Shareholders by plucking away the very profitable Marketing company under the Estate Management Company and then sold part of of it to Wilmar, a Large Palm Oil player.

Interestingly enough, two of your recent posts re Yaseen & Sunshine brings back a lot of memories for me. I used to handle these accounts Estelle trading, Readywear Industries (Yaseen) and Lanka Medical Imports (Sathasivam) about 27-28 years ago when i was working for a Bank.

Ho now rain is telling it after gunning down? Are we late for Sunshine?

The Alchemist wrote:

rainmaker wrote:

The Alchemist wrote:

rainmaker wrote:I won't tell you what I'm gunning down because the market will move and I haven't gone long yet. But there is one firm that is heavily undervalued.

The suspense is killing me ! fair enough, but pls go long soon and then tell us ok ? Could it be that  you may be over-estimating the impact of your stock selection on moving the market ? Just a thought only.  

The firm was Sunshine Holdings ..... it was trading at 25 levels and now needs to correct. It's still a very well managed firm

Aha ! Rainmaker making hay while the sun shines, i see ! like Wilmar and the Flinstones
There is a pretty upset and unhappy large shareholder of WATA like someone who watches out for Minority Shareholders rights !
According to him, The Sunshine boys did a major number on the Wata Shareholders by plucking away the very profitable Marketing company under the Estate Management Company and then sold part of of it to Wilmar, a Large Palm Oil player.

Interestingly enough, two of your recent posts re Yaseen & Sunshine brings back a lot of memories for me. I used to handle these accounts Estelle trading, Readywear Industries (Yaseen) and Lanka Medical Imports (Sathasivam) about 27-28 years ago when i was working for a Bank.

Did u worked at Dubai Bank?

I don't know Yaseen personally. I heard about him because a few sudas invested their funds in horses.

To me this was crazy.

-----below for mature audience ------

Obviously you have to pay high stud fees to get a good product. A stud fee can cost about $10-20,000 for a good horse and even then you are not sure about insemination. A top horse on the Magic Millions could earn stud fees of 50-100K

Also these studs spend the entire day doing this. So you can basically get 10 hits in one day

This is how these studs (horses) earn millions for their owners. Anyway I got to know this Yaseen bloke had done the same thing ....