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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » JKH going down ! The right thing ! Right moment !

JKH going down ! The right thing ! Right moment !

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Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Its seems to be a lot of members of the forum worried about downward momentum of JKH share.

But its the right thing to be happened in the right moment.

Recent days there's a big concern about withdrawing of foreign investors from the market where better opportunities available with declined prices of GOLD and BLACK-GOLD.

We have to understand the importance of foreign participation in the market which always improve the health indicators and the sustainability. As we all know a good percentage of the foreign investments goes to the JKH counter because of the huge capitalization and the high liquidation. Its understood that most of the JKH transactions happened recent past were in the price range of  Rs 235 - Rs 250 .

So then ...,  what are the best options The market has to prove these foreign funds in terms of convincing a long term holding, in here? Can the market promise a new height like 9000 as most BBs preach to their retail clients ? 

Fortunately (or unfortunately) market is giving the best possible solution it can. The best option is nothing but to bringing down of the prices to a range where handicapping an easy exit even not with a marginal profit gain. So its happening correctly , wisely and timely.  Obviously this create some damages to certain participants both local and foreign , but this very truth has to be  accepted in an open mind,  understanding the importance of keeping up the wellness of the market in coming two difficult months.

dineshfernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I'm extremely happy about JKH correction. I think the fair value for JKH is around 230.00. This will lead to a healthy market situation. Already JKH weighing 10% of the market capitalization. This is too risky.

I also would like to see price correction for the following in order for us to have a healthy sustainable market.

LLUB - 240.00
NEST - 1500.00
CTC - 700.00

All oil palm companies need to be corrected by at least 50%.
Now the time has come to focus on fundamentally under valued shares which have bean beaten down severely due to JKH and LLUB drama.

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Is this down trend further driven by-

a) low exports revenue
b) possible right issue
c) high leverage with new expansion
d) poor performance in 2nd quarter
e) complexities in forthcoming elections.....etc?

wappula

wappula
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Prince wrote:Its seems to be a lot of members of the forum worried about downward momentum of JKH share.

But its the right thing to be happened in the right moment.

Recent days there's a big concern about withdrawing of foreign investors from the market where better opportunities available with declined prices of GOLD and BLACK-GOLD.

We have to understand the importance of foreign participation in the market which always improve the health indicators and the sustainability. As we all know a good percentage of the foreign investments goes to the JKH counter because of the huge capitalization and the high liquidation. Its understood that most of the JKH transactions happened recent past were in the price range of  Rs 235 - Rs 250 .

So then ...,  what are the best options The market has to prove these foreign funds in terms of convincing a long term holding, in here? Can the market promise a new height like 9000 as most BBs preach to their retail clients ? 

Fortunately (or unfortunately) market is giving the best possible solution it can. The best option is nothing but to bringing down of the prices to a range where handicapping an easy exit even not with a marginal profit gain. So its happening correctly , wisely and timely.  Obviously this create some damages to certain participants both local and foreign , but this very truth has to be  accepted in an open mind,  understanding the importance of keeping up the wellness of the market

in coming two difficult months.

thank you prince. your valuable explanation

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Market has a challenge now. To avoid a nose down dive to 5800-5900 level , market has to brake ASI 6250 level within two days.  Other hand  "JKH" has to be brought down to Rs 230 -235 level as soon as possible to avoid a major draining of foreign funds.

Well , without JKH market will not reach to 6250 for sure.  If  JKH goes up exit of foreign funds (by selling JKH portfolio) is inevitable.

Market is in a decisive point, looking for a direction.  

98% its a downward direction.

Santa

Santa
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
JKH might be considerably on a slide. So invest with care. Always weight till until its very low. Don't purchase what foreigners are selling.

Santa

Santa
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
JKH might be considerably on a slide. So invest with care. Always weight till until its very low. Don't purchase what foreigners are selling.

Burpy


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
may be local company like DIST will start collecting ? Laughing

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Prince wrote:

Market has a challenge now. To avoid a nose down dive to 5800-5900 level , market has to brake ASI 6250 level within two days.  Other hand  "JKH" has to be brought down to Rs 230 -235 level as soon as possible to avoid a major draining of foreign funds.

Well , without JKH market will not reach to 6250 for sure.  If  JKH goes up exit of foreign funds (by selling JKH portfolio) is inevitable.

Market is in a decisive point, looking for a direction.  

98% its a downward direction.

It seems like foreigners are pulling out since US is recovering from debt. Rupee again devalued to 130. So they can take out the profits and invest in US.

What u think of JKH is not that correct.. Fundamentally its not worth above 170 but technically its poised to go 400 if it can hold grounds now. Just look at the chart. 50% Fib correction was conquered at 252. It dipped beyond that t 247 too. Today there were bids for 252 so unless it can come up now it can also go to your predicted levels. But if more foreigners pull out, it can become a reality too. But I believe if ASI can recover from now on, it would be a dream.

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ smallville

Market is in a situation.

It's doesn't matter about the true value / market value / technical value / foretasted value / fundamental value of the JKH .

At the moment its a matter of making a stop to a possible quick drain of foreign funds, which in turn could create a panic among retailers and trigger out the margin-call chain reaction.

Most of the JKH tranches bought by foreigners at around Rs 230-235 levels. Market has only one option to stop the "draining" that is bringing down the price below or equal to the bought price.

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
What drain on foreign funds ? Its only Janus selling what was bought at 190/= right ?

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@Backstage wrote:What drain on foreign funds ? Its only Janus selling what was bought at 190/= right ?

around 160

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@Backstage wrote:What drain on foreign funds ? Its only Janus selling what was bought at 190/= right ?

"US-based Janus which began buying into the stock at Rs. 141 later taking a big block of 7.5 million shares at Rs.154."

More read this link
http://www.island.lk/2010/01/10/business1.html

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@ Prince

When JKH is taken down to 230-240 levels, panic traders will sell a lot thinking that its the end of it. What sort of guarantee that we have even these foreigners may not sell? Foreigners usually enter as long term holders, so my view is that as long as its kept above their last buying price, its safe .. As its an investment not a quick swing trade..cuz they're always at a profit and for them no need to realise without growin it at an acceptable level.

Vptilak


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:@ Prince

When JKH is taken down to 230-240 levels, panic traders will sell a lot thinking that its the end of it. What sort of guarantee that we have even these foreigners may not sell? Foreigners usually enter as long term holders, so my view is that as long as its kept above their last buying price, its safe .. As its an investment not a quick swing trade..cuz they're always at a profit and for them no need to realise without growin it at an acceptable level.


Fully agree with you.

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
As expected JKH came down to 240/- level.  MACD indicates its not over yet. Could come down to 230/- level within a shorter period.

JKH price will certainly influence two most attractive Banking shares COMB & SAMP to a decline. Wekened 1st-Q   results and declining Gold prices will make a impact on downward momentum.

Predict COMB at Rs 105/- and SAMP at Rs 180/- to hold the ground, without making the down-trend bad to worst.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
So now JKH has to go to 230 and market has to come down few more points? 5900??????????

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
230 is a good price for a fund to come in and collect whatever  available.
If that happens, the next scene will be interesting for the people who bought it -or even some other shares- at current prices.

sandunj


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I heard price was coming down to do some transactions in below prices. This only I heard. Long term these prices will be ok...

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
There were a lot of trading today.. 400K+ means something for a share like JKH.
Some may have exited in panic as I said 2 days back and some others might've collected for good.

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