SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..!

Prince · 1 SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:22 pm

Prince

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Highest gold exposure could have a impact on SAMP's 2nd Q results which in return would reflect on the current price level by this Friday.

COMB's results is the only hope for the banking sector but who knows it could be the other way this time.

SAMP and COMB is playing a major role in ASI index nowadays whom helped most of the time the Index to be in Green Zone.
In a case where SAMP and COMB publishing negative Q on Q results by thursday/friday , market will certainly react adversely and drag the whole market to a lower position.

Forum members who have high hopes on a banking rally should be cautious.

Slstock · 2 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:32 pm

Slstock

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So you think the price adjustment which Samp went though Rs 230 to 195 already is not enough?

How much drop do you expect to effect ASI?

salt · 3 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:35 pm

salt

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Exposure to gold is a worrying factor , but it has not been a overwhelming concern.
It is in manageable level, only concern is a prolonged slow down in gold price and falling it below psychological 1,000 level. Then , it might cause problems. but, chances are low.

K.Haputantri · 4 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Tue Aug 13, 2013 5:11 pm

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http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t30202-comb-smallest-exposure-to-gold-buy#178163

Prince · 5 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 8:43 am

Prince

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K.Haputantri wrote:http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t30202-comb-smallest-exposure-to-gold-buy#178163

COMB's reason might not be the "Gold" this time.

Prince · 6 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 8:48 am

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slstock wrote:So you think the price adjustment which Samp went though Rs 230 to 195 already is not enough?

How much drop do you expect to effect ASI?

SAMP 177 -180 levels
COMB 100 - 103 levels

Slstock · 7 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:27 am

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To think like this for COMB specially, you must be not expecting a CSE uptrend for several months?

Prince wrote:

slstock wrote:So you think the price adjustment which Samp went though Rs 230 to 195 already is not enough?

How much drop do you expect to effect ASI?

SAMP 177 -180 levels
COMB 100 - 103 levels

smallville · 8 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:15 pm

smallville

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Do they have that much of exposure to Gold and without any leverage at all??? Surprised

Prince · 9 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:08 pm

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slstock wrote:

To think like this for COMB specially, you must be not expecting a CSE uptrend for several months?

I'm not expecting a sustainable upward momentum till March next year. We would see a good peak in the ASI only in the June next year for my knowledge.
Anyway things can be changed as no one can predict the market 100% correctly.
But I really worry about the Banks/Finance Sector's performance for this Quarter. If we could hear strong performance from B/F sector as all expected Market had a good reason to start a upward trend.

But since you asked, my view is that if we to think of a strong sustainable upward trend and a ASI-7000+ peak, market should be corrected a few hundred points more.

Slstock · 10 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:24 pm

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If the issues you say in banks/fin is due to Gold , remember that they are not that crazy not to take any further risk management ( which already they should have done ifthe management is smart)

Also many banks are already trading at decent PBV . A hiccup during this quarter is no reason to desert them. Looking at HNB with about 15% gold portfolio, the results are not terrible as one would have expected.

Anyway, I would still not discard hope for a uptrend this year ( sooner than later)

Prince wrote:

slstock wrote:

To think like this for COMB specially, you must be not expecting a CSE uptrend for several months?

I'm not expecting a sustainable upward momentum till March next year. We would see a good peak in the ASI only in the June next year for my knowledge.
Anyway things can be changed as no one can predict the market 100% correctly.
But I really worry about the Banks/Finance Sector's performance for this Quarter. If we could hear strong performance from B/F sector as all expected Market had a good reason to start a upward trend.

But since you asked, my view is that if we to think of a strong sustainable upward trend and a ASI-7000+ peak, market should be corrected a few hundred points more.

rainmaker · 11 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:52 pm

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So what is the COMB reason ? Let me guess... an employee related exposure

Prince · 12 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 2:17 pm

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slstock wrote:
A hiccup during this quarter is no reason to desert them. Looking at HNB with about 15% gold portfolio, the results are not terrible as one would have expected.

Thats the reason for me to say I expect the uptrend in March next year. Provisions kept in this quarter might be realised in 3rd Q or most probably in 4th Q.

Most of the Banks/Finance companies still refrain from lending against Gold. Loss of not doing the business is quite high and biting the bottom lines for past three months. NPL figure is one problem and not continuing the revenue (from Gold lending) is another problem.

Slstock · 13 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 2:25 pm

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Ok there could be reduced revenue on pawning , but is it bad as you say time will only tell.

Right now most banks/fin must be giving 20% less than collateral value with still high interest margins/profit.

I would wait to see all banks reports before commenting further.

btw, more than SMAP , am getting more worried about NEST and CTC play while many other fundamentals shares are not moving. If they correct before next run, it can drag further the other good ones.

Prince wrote:

slstock wrote:
A hiccup during this quarter is no reason to desert them. Looking at HNB with about 15% gold portfolio, the results are not terrible as one would have expected.

Thats the reason for me to say I expect the uptrend in March next year. Provisions kept in this quarter might be realised in 3rd Q or most probably in 4th Q.

Most of the Banks/Finance companies still refrain from lending against Gold. Loss of not doing the business is quite high and biting the bottom lines for past three months. NPL figure is one problem and not continuing the revenue (from Gold lending) is another problem.

wellappili · 14 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 2:35 pm

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Unfortunately they will help index move up. Razz

funland · 15 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 6:55 pm

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Prince wrote:Highest gold exposure could have a impact on SAMP's 2nd Q results which in return would reflect on the current price level by this Friday.

COMB's results is the only hope for the banking sector but who knows it could be the other way this time.

SAMP and COMB is playing a major role in ASI index nowadays whom helped most of the time the Index to be in Green Zone.
In a case where SAMP and COMB publishing negative Q on Q results by thursday/friday , market will certainly react adversely and drag the whole market to a lower position.

Forum members who have high hopes on a banking rally should be cautious.

COMB:
http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/369_1376478758704.pdf

SAMP:
http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/431_1376477539781.pdf

Prince · 16 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:25 pm

Prince

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Did anybody got me by then ? ( 05 July 2013)

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t29678-declining-gold-prices-and-bank-finance-sector

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SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..!

1 SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:22 pm

Prince

2 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:32 pm

Slstock

3 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:35 pm

salt

4 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Tue Aug 13, 2013 5:11 pm

K.Haputantri

5 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 8:43 am

Prince

6 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 8:48 am

Prince

7 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:27 am

Slstock

8 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:15 pm

smallville

9 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:08 pm

Prince

10 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:24 pm

Slstock

11 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:52 pm

rainmaker

12 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 2:17 pm

Prince

13 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 2:25 pm

Slstock

14 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 2:35 pm

wellappili

15 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Wed Aug 14, 2013 6:55 pm

funland

16 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..! Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:25 pm

Prince

17 Re: SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..!

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