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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..!

SAMP and COMB might bring the market down ..!

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Highest gold exposure could have a impact on SAMP's 2nd Q results which in return would reflect on the current price level by this Friday.

COMB's results is the only hope for the banking sector but who knows it could be the other way this time.

SAMP and COMB is playing a major role in ASI index nowadays whom helped most of the time the Index to be in Green Zone.
In a case where SAMP and COMB publishing negative Q on Q results by thursday/friday , market will certainly react adversely and drag the whole market to a lower position.

Forum members who have high hopes on a banking rally should be cautious.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
So you think the price adjustment which Samp went though Rs 230 to 195 already is not enough?

How much drop do you expect to effect ASI?

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Exposure to gold is a worrying factor , but it has not been a overwhelming concern.
It is in manageable level, only concern is a prolonged slow down in gold price and falling it below psychological 1,000 level. Then , it might cause problems. but, chances are low.

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t30202-comb-smallest-exposure-to-gold-buy#178163

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@K.Haputantri wrote:http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t30202-comb-smallest-exposure-to-gold-buy#178163
COMB's reason might not be the "Gold" this time.

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:So you think the price adjustment which Samp went though Rs 230 to 195  already is not enough?  

How much drop do you expect to effect ASI?


SAMP 177 -180 levels
COMB 100 - 103 levels

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Question Exclamation 

To think like this for COMB specially, you must be not expecting a CSE uptrend for several months?



@Prince wrote:
@slstock wrote:So you think the price adjustment which Samp went though Rs 230 to 195  already is not enough?  

How much drop do you expect to effect ASI?
SAMP   177 -180 levels
COMB   100 - 103 levels

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Do they have that much of exposure to Gold and without any leverage at all??? Surprised 

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:

To think  like this for COMB specially, you must be not expecting a CSE uptrend for several months?
I'm not expecting a sustainable upward momentum till March next year.  We would see a good peak in the ASI only in the June next year for my knowledge.
Anyway things can be changed as no one can predict the market 100% correctly.
But I really worry about  the Banks/Finance Sector's performance for this Quarter. If we could hear strong performance from B/F sector as all expected Market had a good reason to start a upward trend.

But since you asked, my view is that if we to think of a strong sustainable upward trend and a ASI-7000+ peak,  market should be corrected a few hundred points more.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
If the issues you say in banks/fin is due to Gold , remember that they are not that crazy not to take any further risk management ( which already they should have done ifthe management is smart)

Also many banks are already trading at decent PBV . A hiccup during this quarter is no reason to desert them. Looking at HNB with about 15% gold portfolio, the results are not terrible as one would have expected.

Anyway, I would still not discard hope for a uptrend this year ( sooner than later)


@Prince wrote:
@slstock wrote:

To think  like this for COMB specially, you must be not expecting a CSE uptrend for several months?
I'm not expecting a sustainable upward momentum till March next year.  We would see a good peak in the ASI only in the June next year for my knowledge.
Anyway things can be changed as no one can predict the market 100% correctly.
But I really worry about  the Banks/Finance Sector's performance for this Quarter. If we could hear strong performance from B/F sector as all expected Market had a good reason to start a upward trend.

But since you asked, my view is that if we to think of a strong sustainable upward trend and a ASI-7000+ peak,  market should be corrected a few hundred points more.

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
So what is the COMB reason ? Let me guess... an employee related exposure

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:
A hiccup  during this quarter is no reason to desert them.  Looking at HNB with about 15% gold portfolio, the results are not terrible as one would have expected.  
Thats the reason for me to say I expect the uptrend in March next year. Provisions kept in this quarter might be realised in 3rd Q or most probably in 4th Q.  

Most of the Banks/Finance companies still refrain from lending against Gold. Loss of not doing the business is quite high and biting the bottom lines for past three months. NPL figure is one problem and not continuing the revenue (from Gold lending)  is another problem.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Ok there could be reduced revenue on pawning , but is it bad as you say time will  only tell.

Right now most banks/fin must be giving 20% less than collateral value with still  high  interest margins/profit.

I would wait to see all banks reports before commenting further.

btw, more than SMAP , am getting more worried about NEST and CTC play while many other fundamentals shares are not moving. If they correct before next run, it can drag further the other good ones.

@Prince wrote:
@slstock wrote:
A hiccup  during this quarter is no reason to desert them.  Looking at HNB with about 15% gold portfolio, the results are not terrible as one would have expected.  
Thats the reason for me to say I expect the uptrend in March next year. Provisions kept in this quarter might be realised in 3rd Q or most probably in 4th Q.  

Most of the Banks/Finance companies still refrain from lending against Gold. Loss of not doing the business is quite high and biting the bottom lines for past three months. NPL figure is one problem and not continuing the revenue (from Gold lending)  is another problem.

wellappili


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Unfortunately they will help index move up.Razz Razz Razz

funland


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@Prince wrote:Highest gold exposure could have a impact on SAMP's 2nd Q results which in return would reflect on the current price level by this Friday.  

COMB's results is the only hope for the banking sector but who knows it could be the other way this time.

SAMP and COMB is playing a major role in ASI index nowadays whom helped most of the time the Index to be in Green Zone.
In a case where SAMP and COMB publishing negative Q on Q results by thursday/friday , market will certainly react adversely and drag the whole market to a lower position.

Forum members who have high hopes on a banking rally should be cautious.

COMB:
http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/369_1376478758704.pdf

SAMP:
http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/431_1376477539781.pdf

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Did anybody got me by then ? ( 05 July 2013)

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t29678-declining-gold-prices-and-bank-finance-sector

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