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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Market situation and what to do?

Market situation and what to do?

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1Market situation and what to do?  Empty Market situation and what to do? Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:41 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I see lot of people panicking, in uncertainty , making negative predictions and very worried about the Market.

So I thought I will put my penny's worth here. The decision to stay or exit market is your as always. Please do not blame me. It depends on your goals and strategy

1) What is going on now?

I don;t know for sure the plight of the market. It seems more than anything it is in the hands of a selected few who control JKH, CTC, NEST now.

Did anyone notice how index was pushed to 6500 .
Then how it was pushed again from 5900 to 6200.
Then how did it get dragged back to 5850.

If you noticed this, you would get a better idea whether this is a chain reaction or really a crash due to our economy and companies are in serious trouble .

( like CIFL and PCH when we talked about the issue at rs 7-9.
Btw, early notice to be careful about some land related companies, not the positiver earning ones, if you are holding for long term. )


When Index falls ( thanks to ...) smaller traders and people in anxiety panic to sell cheap even the good shares they hold. Sometimes it is nothing about fundamentals , common sense or future growth. It is fear. FEAR.

Also the collective hope comes one can sell cheap now and buy cheaper. Sometimes we sell good shares cheap after holding for months due to panic but in few days things change and we cry ......

It about temperament and whether you are a short term trader oir an investor. If one cannot bear to see short term losses one should not be in share market. Go invest in FD, treasury bills.


Usually panic happens due to you being a ...... and having .....

When the bull starts you will see opposite posts here talking about buying and buying more.



2) Companies with positive earnings even amidst electricity, vehicle, finanical issues are sold cheap. Why?

Should we be selling them or ....

Some peoples worry can be someone else's opportunity.



3) I am hoping ( just a wish) that ASI will not fall below 5800 ( as I think it will be not good technically orr mentally) . If it does I see no reason for it to go below 5600 unless serious manipulation.



Finally just note the below

* Market may turn when we least expect it. A few well placed good news items can do wonders.

* Share market is mental game full of greed, fear worry and hope.
Some times common sense eludes us. Greed stops us from selling and fear stops us from buying.

* One should be very careful if you hold crap companies . I still see people playing with them after
getting burned hoping to recover their monies in the same share. Move on . There are other fish in the
sea. Slow and steady is most times better than fast , furious and crash. ( specially if you don't know when to jump in and jump out)



Again , this is my view. Decision to stay or exit is yours.

2Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:43 am

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The Golden Rule : " Market is always Correct"

Yes the market is artificial and manipulated as you said but the "Market is correct".

You may ask me why ..????

Forget about the JKH, NEST, CTC jacking up. Or deduct the JKH, NEST, CTC effect from the ASI index and recalculate to see whether there is a genuine upward momentum in the Index for last 3 - 4 months. Of course there are a plenty of good stocks available in the Board , anybody can make a investment and wait a good return but that waiting is for how long I may ask you.

Indrani Sugathadasa effect really killed the retail driving force of the market and cannot expect the same type of a retail investor confidence for another two three years unless some drastic changes from authorities. Without making a new hope rather a great confidence amongst the mindset of retail investor category , there is no way of expecting a green pasture from the current crisis.

Without a good support from a strong, enthusiastic flock of retailers we wont see nothing much other than NEST, CTC kind of jack-ups , as , what other kind of options "the poor market" has to be in LIVE. ??

3Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:58 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Prince ,

So what is the summary. Do not invest in CSE for several years . Exit now . Even if you are short term, you say  there won't be an uptredn this year for sure?



In a market like this we cannot expect even solid fundamentals  to go up overnight.

But what is the gurantee that even Short term runs like ABAN  or purchase pushes like CERA will not happen to certain fundamentals.
For example I will find it hard to believe ALLI will go back to Rs 500 or NDB to Rs 100 .

 
I don;t know where and when the push  will come or who will do it.   But all I know is most times all what retailer needs is a short term push to join the party. They will not care where the company is negative assets as long as it  starts to move ( when they get caught at the top of crap it is another story)

Summary :  This is a stressful mental game during bad times. Long term holding is not appealing to many in this market which is still going on cycles . But  survival of the fittest will be tested .  Many will leave market when we cannot bear.


Some of my companies are giving dividend + capital gain.


@Prince wrote:The Golden Rule :    " Market is always Correct"

Yes the market is artificial and manipulated as you said but the "Market is correct".

You may ask me why ..????  

Forget about the JKH, NEST, CTC jacking up. Or deduct the JKH, NEST, CTC   effect from the ASI index and recalculate to see whether there is a genuine upward momentum in the Index for last 3 - 4 months. Of course there are a plenty of good stocks available in the Board , anybody can make a investment and wait a good return but that waiting is for how long I may ask you.

Indrani Sugathadasa effect really killed the retail driving force of the market and cannot expect the same type of a retail investor confidence for another two three years unless some drastic changes from authorities.  Without making a new hope rather a great confidence amongst the mindset of retail investor category , there is no way of expecting a green pasture from the current crisis.

Without a good support from a strong, enthusiastic  flock of retailers we wont see nothing much other than NEST, CTC  kind of jack-ups , as , what other kind of options "the poor market" has to be in LIVE. ??

4Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:09 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Btw, it is very easy to say "Market is always correct".  Just like saying "it goes with our  Daiwaya"


But the goal is to find which shares market condemned too much that can give up better gains when it recovers.

Safe bet is to play with solid fundamentals with dividends that withstands huge drops.  But we can mix it up  when the opportunity arises.

( ie some crap may fall to pittance giving us big opportunities if we  can pick from bottom )

Yesterday Green was totally manipulated. It was not convincing. Few more days to month end. Let see what happens.



Last edited by slstock on Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:28 am; edited 1 time in total

5Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:12 am

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
As an investor I'm enjoying, because my investments were made so many years before.

Nowadays as a trader I'm enjoying.(Note: Due to me Broker huts are earning healthy brokerage) End of the day penny is penny mate.

6Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:08 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Ho ho Rights and wait for it warrants also for JKH

http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/1351377666751_.pdf

We missed this obvious issue. One reason for JKH downfall.

Now the question is how much more can it fall and drag market with it?


7Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:12 am

wellappili


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@slstock wrote:Ho ho   Rights and wait for it warrants also  for JKH
 
http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/1351377666751_.pdf

We missed this obvious issue. One reason for JKH  downfall.

Now the question is how much more can it fall and drag market with it?


Is there a possibility of trade suspension today?
-250 ASI.

8Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:17 am

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ slstock

If the current trend of the market is to push high cap shares and make a living , what option the retailers have. Funny thing is when market is pushing GREG company there were lot of concerns from various parties. But for NEST , CTC , JKH no one to middle in.  You might remember the introduction of "price band" law just in the middle of a heavy trading day. I was at the centre of CSE market floor by then watching the huge electronic board and I felt it is the end of good days of Share-Market and everybody know the bitter outcome.

Few high profiled people who controlled the market by then so worried about the new trends by then at the market and they were so upset of the non movement of their collection of shares. I can remember CEO of JKH Securities ( now he is heading the CSE) made several complaints to the SEC , against a few shares in the market and requested immediate intervention. Now he is keeping very silent against CTC, NEST, JKH rallys.

I'm totally agree with you about the 'Quote' I don;t know where and when the push  will come or who will do it.   But all I know is most times all what retailer needs is a short term push to join the party. They will not care where the company is negative assets as long as it  starts to move ( when they get caught at the top of crap it is another story) '/Quote'

But this time the push you are talking about should be given to the mindset of the retail investors,  not to a selected set of shares as was the old day practice.

If you ask my strategy in this market,  I will stay until market reach 5300 unless otherwise I hear the good news of "finding oil" from Mannar Basin.

9Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:56 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Okay after JKH fun 5800 is under severe threat.

What a time to announce the right issue to market.


Wasn;t JKH going to do a private placement from abroad. IF they knew about this right issue all along, they should have announced it when JKH ran to Rs 300 and was trading much higher after the project was finalized.

They could have announced a better price with lesser shares and also save the market this headache.

10Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:09 pm

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
This is real lunacy.

Bad GREG good JKH .

11Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:11 pm

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The last thing market wants now is a scrap IPO like PCH.

12Market situation and what to do?  Empty holy shits - Why all are coming at once Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:13 pm

wiki


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Okay after JKH fun 5800 is under severe threat.  

What a time to announce the right issue to  market.


Wasn;t JKH going to do a private placement from abroad. IF they knew about this right issue  all along,  they should have announced it when JKH ran to Rs 300 and was trading much higher after the project was finalized.

They could have announced a better price with lesser shares and also save the market this headache.

Yes what a time to announce a right issue ... especially by a market trend setter..


  • Some are planning to attack Syria while they are also going to end the stimulus (QE) given to the world
  • Madam NP is going around every bush to punish us
  • We are planning CHOGM while our big brother has not decided to come
  • We retailers are dreaming of so called SS


why they announce the right issue right now scratch

13Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:22 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Well a Rs 20 drop happened in minutes. In a way it is good . Else if this slowly happens then overall market can be dragged down a lot more along with others.


TAH,
What timing , you bought JKH today right :-(



@wiki wrote:
@slstock wrote:Okay after JKH fun 5800 is under severe threat.  

What a time to announce the right issue to  market.


Wasn;t JKH going to do a private placement from abroad. IF they knew about this right issue  all along,  they should have announced it when JKH ran to Rs 300 and was trading much higher after the project was finalized.

They could have announced a better price with lesser shares and also save the market this headache.

Yes what a time to announce a right issue ... especially by a market trend setter..


  • Some are planning to attack Syria while they are also going to end the stimulus (QE) given to the world
  • Madam NP is going around every bush to punish us
  • We are planning CHOGM while our big brother has not decided to come
  • We retailers are dreaming of so called SS


why they announce the right issue right now scratch

14Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:18 am

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
slstock, regardless of JKH factor
what do you see in otehr shares in market?
i think JKH will be a reason to money out from selected shares by investors since i see JKH as a positive moment. I may be wrong. What sort of advice you can give to us in this crucial moment? im ready to throw away 80% of my bad shares (which is under approximately 75% lost , ok then you know what are those shares Very Happy) and re invest in JKH. If market rise again shouldn't it with JKH obviously?

your experience is highly appreciated at this moment. Smile

15Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Fri Aug 30, 2013 1:20 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@SLSTOCK

Yes @224
But no worries, planning another BUY @ 200 levels.

CMP is @215/-

Expecting further DROP on ASI, I would love to see the Reversal complete @ 5600 once in for all.... Smile

TAH

16Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Fri Aug 30, 2013 1:19 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
[quote="Prince"]The Golden Rule :    " Market is always Correct"

Y




Indrani Sugathadasa effect really killed the retail driving force of the market and cannot expect the same type of a retail investor confidence for another two three years unless some drastic changes from authorities.  Without making a new hope rather a great confidence amongst the mindset of retail investor category , there is no way of expecting a green pasture from the current crisis.

I am very happy others also use " INDRANI SUGATHADSA EFFECT" to explain present behavior of Retail inverters

Purpose of this is not to harm any body personally this But to prevent this type of titivation in future

17Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Sep 04, 2013 8:44 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Index fell below 5800 but still around 5752.


This is a tentative period. Though there are so many bargains, if the market sentiments remains negative then bargains will become more bargains. So jumping in with huge quantities is not good. Best to watch market movement and if buying buy in smaller quantities so that a further drop will not upset you much. ( specially since people here hate short term losses)

On the other hand, don;t forget that CSE is small enough that any good news item or a push can change market mentality suddenly. People who are pessimistic about market and environment now can change their mind and join the fun if they see a green trend forming. Will it happen this week , I don;t know.

We can;t predict as we don;t have internal info. But all I can say is when we panic we sell cheap good shares and they can get cheaper which we might buy at higher prices later.


Just play safe during this uncertain period if further drops worry you. If one is expeniced there are day trading opportunities. New comers should not follow rumors or tips if they don't know when to get in and get out. there is some "werid play" with TWOD,PCH group shares ,CIFL etc.


18Market situation and what to do?  Empty Re: Market situation and what to do? Wed Sep 04, 2013 8:55 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@SLS
Very True......
This is the period to start collecting gradually. some shares have become very cheap....

There is no point DGJ to analyse past effect on individuals.....if you try to live in history, you will miss the present opportunity...and will stand to lose massive future gains Smile
Just bury the indrani hangover.... Wink and look for companies across all sectors that has given consistent gains over the years irrespective of economic volatility. And compare with the historic share price movements and buy at a reasonable price.

Good luck all
TAH

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