plantations - 1st results out (TPL)

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/726_1304077211.pdf

Fantastic. Q 1 ,EPS has increased rapidly from 2.51 in 2010 to 3.47 in 2011. Present price level 42/- 43/-.is realy attractive to buy . This is my personel view only.

Better EPS with Q results will not make us happy these day as we wish !

Does anyone know the forecasted earnings per share for 2012.

salimts wrote:Does anyone know the forecasted earnings per share for 2012.

No one can forcast earnings for plantations. This is the last quarter that will see good results from tea planations. Going to be downhill from here.

tubal wrote:

salimts wrote:Does anyone know the forecasted earnings per share for 2012.

No one can forcast earnings for plantations. This is the last quarter that will see good results from tea planations. Going to be downhill from here.

tubal, what you say is contradicting!!

1. no one can forecast earnings for plantations
2. By saying that this is last qtr with good results, you indeed forecasting!

anyways no offense made.

dhamm wrote:

tubal wrote:

salimts wrote:Does anyone know the forecasted earnings per share for 2012.

No one can forcast earnings for plantations. This is the last quarter that will see good results from tea planations. Going to be downhill from here.

tubal, what you say is contradicting!!

1. no one can forecast earnings for plantations
2. By saying that this is last qtr with good results, you indeed forecasting!

anyways no offense made.

I suppose you are right that my previous statement may appears contradictory. What I meant to say is that you can't give an accurate forcast for EPS for plantations. However it's still possible to predict that EBITDA will decline because of declining tea prices, wage hike increased cost of other inputs etc etc

plantation sector will boom soon with current mkt rubber price again cost of the rubber production per kilo,do some own research and invest,

DXB2252 wrote:plantation sector will boom soon with current mkt rubber price again cost of the rubber production per kilo,do some own research and invest,

Don't make misleading posts. Rubber prices have declined for three weeks in a raw.
http://www.crtasl.org/

and what has rubber prices got to do with tea plantations?

tubal wrote:

DXB2252 wrote:plantation sector will boom soon with current mkt rubber price again cost of the rubber production per kilo,do some own research and invest,

Don't make misleading posts. Rubber prices have declined for three weeks in a raw.
http://www.crtasl.org/

and what has rubber prices got to do with tea plantations?

There are only four RPCs in the country are 100% tea. MASK, BOPL and MADU & TPL. TPL has other sources of income but the other three 100% rely on TEA as justified by the counter prices

From January 2011 LC No 1 recorded a highest price of Rs 694 and the lowest of 497.50, On April28th auction it was 595 where as the average during 4 months are around 620. Still the prices are way better than the last year price. Look at the segmental analysis of RPC annual reports. Rubber segmental GP & NP contributions are the highest. Do your own analysis and decide.

I do not recommend anything but I do recommend not to buy the above three (out of four) counters.

Good hunting

widanage wrote:

tubal wrote:

DXB2252 wrote:plantation sector will boom soon with current mkt rubber price again cost of the rubber production per kilo,do some own research and invest,

Don't make misleading posts. Rubber prices have declined for three weeks in a raw.
http://www.crtasl.org/

and what has rubber prices got to do with tea plantations?

There are only four RPCs in the country are 100% tea. MASK, BOGA and MADU & TPL. TPL has other sources of income but the other three 100% rely on TEA as justified by the counter prices

From January 2011 LC No 1 recorded a highest price of Rs 694 and the lowest of 497.50, On April28th auction it was 595 where as the average during 4 months are around 620. Still the prices are way better than the last year price. Look at the segmental analysis of RPC annual reports. Rubber segmental GP & NP contributions are the highest. Do your own analysis and decide.

I do not recommend anything but I do recommend not to buy the above three (out of four) counters.

Good hunting

Trying to figure out why everyone is so worked up about rubber prices what I said was:

tubal wrote:

salimts wrote:Does anyone know the forecasted earnings per share for 2012.

No one can forcast earnings for plantations. This is the last quarter that will see good results from tea planations. Going to be downhill from here.

Note that I said tea plantations.

While it's true that only 4 plantations are 100% dependend on tea (and BOGA being Bogala Graphite isn't one of them) many of the other companies also have a significant contribution from Tea.

Getting back to rubber (since everyone seems to insist on talking about rubber on a TPL thread); There is absolutely no argument that rubber prices are way above last year's prices. But then, the same can be said about CSE prices. Both are heading in the same direction.

tubal wrote:

widanage wrote:

tubal wrote:

DXB2252 wrote:plantation sector will boom soon with current mkt rubber price again cost of the rubber production per kilo,do some own research and invest,

Don't make misleading posts. Rubber prices have declined for three weeks in a raw.
http://www.crtasl.org/

and what has rubber prices got to do with tea plantations?

There are only four RPCs in the country are 100% tea. MASK, BOGA and MADU & TPL. TPL has other sources of income but the other three 100% rely on TEA as justified by the counter prices

From January 2011 LC No 1 recorded a highest price of Rs 694 and the lowest of 497.50, On April28th auction it was 595 where as the average during 4 months are around 620. Still the prices are way better than the last year price. Look at the segmental analysis of RPC annual reports. Rubber segmental GP & NP contributions are the highest. Do your own analysis and decide.

I do not recommend anything but I do recommend not to buy the above three (out of four) counters.

Good hunting

Trying to figure out why everyone is so worked up about rubber prices what I said was:

tubal wrote:

salimts wrote:Does anyone know the forecasted earnings per share for 2012.

No one can forcast earnings for plantations. This is the last quarter that will see good results from tea planations. Going to be downhill from here.

Note that I said tea plantations.

While it's true that only 4 plantations are 100% dependend on tea (and BOGA being Bogala Graphite isn't one of them) many of the other companies also have a significant contribution from Tea.

Getting back to rubber (since everyone seems to insist on talking about rubber on a TPL thread); There is absolutely no argument that rubber prices are way above last year's prices. But then, the same can be said about CSE prices. Both are heading in the same direction.

It was a TYPO error BOPL not BOGA

after reading all these stuff ... I get upset.... evrthing ... down hill...

This is not the time to look at tea plantations, there are many effects due to wage hike, rains, etc... mainy the cost of production many affect many plantations including rubber and oil palm.
The beauty of latter is their prices are at a higher level and I dont feel that prices may come down to be at last year levels.. may be rubber price can decline to abt 530 but we cant forget the strong demand by tyre industry as well..

Another reason why {some} plantations will not do well is that the profits are shunted this-away and that- away. Eg. Watawala is reportedly doing very well. But... Despite the whether it will be the SUN that shines on the holding company.
Get my point, though its very blunt?

Who in the correct frame of mind would want to show good profits at the manufacturing level?
Trade unions are very active and would give the Management a touch time.

Easiest thing to do is show profits in a company where there is a good camouflage!

TPL 1Q2011 net profit of Rs72 mn (EPS = Rs3.0) is good, but it is below the Rs102 mn reported in the last quarter of 2011.

Profit from tea has fallen yoy in 1Q, with results boosted by increased profits from mini hyrdo and to a lesser degree, from rubber.

TPL is one of the better tea plantations, and it's still trading at a discount to its book value, but the pending wage hike (from April 2011) for the sector means that caution should be exercised before investing.

Tea plantations should always trade at heavily discounted valuations to reflect the higher risk involved, with wage hikes, gratuity costs, weather patterns, global prices, crop disease etc being outside the control of management.

Dont worry Aamiable, All disadvatages of plantation industry have been mentioned in several above posts.I do not think any plantation company will have to expirience all these dificulties at a given time. All the plantation companies faced greatest dificulties( very low price levels, strikes. bad weather ,terorism etc) during 2005-2008. However from 2009 situation was improved and kegalle,kotagala,kelenivalley, namunukula and all plantation stock prices went up. And most of disadvatages mentioned in above posts are common to many other sectors as well. For instance some Ceremic based industries faced Wage hike problem recently. But their profitability has not come down.In fact net profit has gone up. When u share your profit with employees they are happy and love to work.As a result company profits could incease. . And disease is not a risk for only plantation industry. Chicken, Meat and Dairy industry also have the same risk.(Eg.Chicken disases, cow disease.)Weather also not a disadvantage for ever. IT CAN BE A GREAT ADVANTAGE WHEN YOU HAVE A GOOD WEATHER. WE SHOULD ALSO DISCUSS THE SPECIFIC ADVANTAGES THIS INDUSTRY HAS. Increasing demand for tea and rubber in the World Market due to various reasons has become a strong advantage. There can be a price drops for a very short periods due to some specific reasons. But we can expect mid and long term upward trend.Another advantage is expanding new markets for tea . Japan has already become a good market for our tea. Now China also has commenced import our tea. So we shoud analyise all these factors to have a good assesment of plantation shares.

http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1533344830

tubal wrote:

salimts wrote:Does anyone know the forecasted earnings per share for 2012.

No one can forcast earnings for plantations. This is the last quarter that will see good results from tea planations. Going to be downhill from here.

You have predicted correctly. But unfortunately you have been given -Rep for your prediction.

Monster wrote:

tubal wrote:

salimts wrote:Does anyone know the forecasted earnings per share for 2012.

No one can forcast earnings for plantations. This is the last quarter that will see good results from tea planations. Going to be downhill from here.

You have predicted correctly. But unfortunately you have been given -Rep for your prediction.

Thanks for bringing this up. I hope the readers excuse me for gloating a bit. As monster has said, I cautioned people against buying into plantations even rubber heavy plantations here in numerous other threads.

I predicted that there is going to be a QoQ earnings declines across the board (not talking about plantations here). I said be weary of companies that have bottom line growth without top line growth.

I predicted the bear in early march.

I predicted the bear market rally. The bear market rally is now out of control thanks to the drama being enacted by the brokers association. They say "credit has been reduced from 8 billion to 2 billion". Ask yourself what impact can 8 billion credit possibly have in a 2500 billion market?

Last but not least, I said it's futile to post on a forum where 'shoe shine boys' argue with people like cse.alpha and innam (see for example that other thread on plantation results) and the admin who doesn't mind people blatantly promoting their portfolio took great exception to the shoe shine boys thread and it's follow up.

tubal wrote:Thanks for bringing this up. I hope the readers excuse me for gloating a bit. As monster has said, I cautioned people against buying into plantations even rubber heavy plantations here in numerous other threads.

I predicted that there is going to be a QoQ earnings declines across the board (not talking about plantations here). I said be weary of companies that have bottom line growth without top line growth.

I predicted the bear in early march.

I predicted the bear market rally. The bear market rally is now out of control thanks to the drama being enacted by the brokers association. They say "credit has been reduced from 8 billion to 2 billion". Ask yourself what impact can 8 billion credit possibly have in a 2500 billion market?

Last but not least, I said it's futile to post on a forum where 'shoe shine boys' argue with people like cse.alpha and innam (see for example that other thread on plantation results) and the admin who doesn't mind people blatantly promoting their portfolio took great exception to the shoe shine boys thread and it's follow up.

Thanks Monster for bringing this out and Tubal for giving those predictions well in advance.

Tubal has raised an interesting point; all what the brokers have managed to do is reducing the broker credit from Rs 8 billion to 2 billion. Yes, if that is correct, they have remarkably reduced the credit (percentage wise) but look at the amount compared to total capitalization of the market. This hardly equals to couple of days turnover of the market.

It is either these figures are incorrect or the market seems to overreact to this whole credit issue and I believe the latter. I personally wouldn’t even for a minute suggest that the problems at CSE are over even if the broker demands for credit facilities are resolved favorably.