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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Important decision

Important decision

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1Important decision  Empty Important decision Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:50 am

Intelligent Investing


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Its very important to know when to exit a share. Its as important as when to buy. Obviously one should aim at buying at cheapest levels and selling at peak. So when should you sell a share? My answer is that it depends on WHY you buy it.

If you buy a share because you think overall market is moving up, then you should hold until you think ASPI is at peak.

If you buy a share because you think earnings will be good (e.g. TKYO), then hold on at least until the quarterly results are published and hold on till next quarter is you expect good results to continue (if you think ASPI will keep increasing)

If you buy a share because there's foreign interest, then monitor the inflow/outflow situation

If you buy it because of technical support, monitor any resistant levels etc

Be careful to monitor - be proactive!

I personally feel that this is a good time to buy - market is showing good signs which go beyond the ASPI numbers. I would stay away from silly share and concentrate on shares which showed increases in profits during last quarter and trading below Sector PE. This is the last chance to buy before quarterly reports are published and I expect the ASPI to move up once they are.

2Important decision  Empty Re: Important decision Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:22 am

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
If you buy it for dividend, wait till the XD date to exit.

3Important decision  Empty Re: Important decision Wed Jan 22, 2014 6:14 am

Roboticfx

Roboticfx
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks for your contribution.

This is what we call speculative motive.

As leon said, if you're looking to have a good dividend, you may hold until the XD date. However, there's a belief, after the XD date share price would come down. Therefore, you should compare your opportunity cost of holding the share and the marginal benefit you get. If you've bought less profitable company but high priced, it is more likely op. cost may passes benefit because you receive a less dividend as well as you miss the chance of selling at a higher price. This theory is not much relevant to fair priced, lucrative companies.

Normally, if you're not looking for a good dividend, you should consider the opportunity cost also. Opportunity cost is the benefit you get if you invest that money in a different share or in a different investment like FD. However, you should also consider the future price of the share. If it comes to the peak even it is far from your aim, you should exit. Otherwise you will not able get your op.cost covered ever.

4Important decision  Empty Re: Important decision Wed Jan 22, 2014 8:49 am

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Roboticfx wrote:Thanks for your contribution.

This is what we call speculative motive.

As leon said, if you're looking to have a good dividend, you may hold until the XD date. However, there's a belief, after the XD date share price would come down. Therefore, you should compare your opportunity cost of holding the share and the marginal benefit you get. If you've bought less profitable company but high priced, it is more likely op. cost may passes benefit because you receive a less dividend as well as you miss the chance of selling at a higher price. This theory is not much relevant to fair priced, lucrative companies.

Normally, if you're not looking for a good dividend, you should consider the opportunity cost also. Opportunity cost is the benefit you get  if you invest that money in a different share or in a different investment like FD. However, you should also consider the future price of the share. If it comes to the peak even it is far from your aim, you should exit. Otherwise you will not able get your op.cost covered ever.

@Robo, Last year there was a slight exception in banking shares if you remember. Even after the XD date some of the banking shares kept going up.

5Important decision  Empty Re: Important decision Wed Jan 22, 2014 6:52 pm

Roboticfx

Roboticfx
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ LEon

Yes, I also cannot understand why COMB hit 128 today? Can anyone give some light on this matter?

6Important decision  Empty Re: Important decision Wed Jan 22, 2014 7:54 pm

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Roboticfx wrote:@ LEon

Yes, I also cannot understand why COMB hit 128 today? Can anyone give some light on this matter?
More things which are not understandable are happening in market these days,Best thing is don't try to understand them.
Even for some this bull run is hard to understand still.Anyway who thought of it.Only few. Wink  Wink 

7Important decision  Empty Re: Important decision Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:28 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
My goodness why don;t you think it deserves to go up?

Consistent (improved) performance during bad times, good dividend, massive amount of foreign interest at Rs 100 in 2012, PE about 10-11. Shares like this , can trade at higher book values. ( look at CTC, NEST, JKH etc)
In my opinion it deserves to beat the previous high in 2010 ( adjusted for split, right issues etc) of 139. NAV also comparatively improved from then.

Once a mad bull was there PBV of 3 were seen quite often.


@Roboticfx wrote:@ LEon

Yes, I also cannot understand why COMB hit 128 today? Can anyone give some light on this matter?

8Important decision  Empty Re: Important decision Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:11 am

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
To me HNB NV is more lucrative than COMB N.

COMB N is trading at 10-11 PE, PBV of 2 and a DY of 5.2% (March 2013 EPS)

HNB NV is expected to make a better profit growth (% wise), trading at PE of around 6 (March 2013 EPS) , PBV of 1 and DY of 6.8% (better than savings acc). HNB historically announces a big dividen in the second half of Feb, last year it was 7/-. COMB gave Div of 2/- with a bonus shares (around 2/- worth per share). There is also less HNB NV liquidity available (approx 80 mil shares)

I expect HNB NV to make a bigger gain despite COMB having more foreign interest. HNB is also on foreign investor radar.

However things can change with mergers and acquisition and we may see abnormal returns for these shares.

Market has formed a Bullish 'W' pattern over last 6 months and 50 day MA can cross 200 day MA soon.

If gold prices remain stable this year SAMP will be the highlight of all banks! Mergers and Acquisition amongst DP related firms will be very profitable for both the acquiring and target firms...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^CSE&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=m200%2Cm50%2Cm100&a=m26-12-9%2Cr14&c=

Cheers!

9Important decision  Empty Re: Important decision Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:26 am

Roboticfx

Roboticfx
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yes, COMB is a well performing bank. But when I referred to its order book, there are few quantities at buying side and also there are considerable price gaps. Share is going forward. It's traded by large quantities but not shown in its order book in either bid or sell sides.

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