A good strategy..

There are so many posts expecting some tip off to select good shares. I am also as a less experienced in CSE eager to see others recommendations. But I will do my home work anyway.
But I think for genuine investor who expect long run can follow Investment funds and how they behave. I remember last year NAVF (Namal) said in their AR that they are bullish on health care, agri, banking etc. And also they collected ASIR. By today it has gone up to 18.50. it was trading around 13.00 few months back. What I'm trying to say here is, for novice investors it will be a good guide to study those Investment fund's behavior.

We should always do homework and not blindly follow others.
When we see people making recommendations we need to ask ourselves

a) who is posting it ( what is their history, is it a person coming with a different Id to promote . Easily identifiable by what they say and how they say it)
b) does the facts the person shows makes sense
c) do they promote when the share has risen 30-40% already
d) do they mention the same share every day ? IF they do ask why they have to do that. What is the intention?

IF the market keeps going up like this will (with small breaks) this forum will be full of promoters using various methods ( sometime not easily identifiable to new comers) .

See the below for further info how to identify
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t29438p50-forum-promoters-demoters-and-how-to-identify-them


On Investment funds:

Yes as leon mentioned it is good to study Investment fund picks as well. IT is a good safer/start.

But with a bit more experience as the next step, the issue boils to , can you find shares that may outperform the % return to those picked by investment funds?

Hi All, Long time.

This is a good post to discuss so I joined in. As so many times I noticed people posting comments based on the shares they have bought or blaming hence it was not a good place to have a forum discussion so moved away.

There can be many strategies but the one I like is to be with Monopoly or close to monopoly companies. The product that they sell should be easily used and a repeat purchase will be necessary always. When you go behind companies like this you need to be very quite as it will be trading at higher PE/PBV most of the time in the year but 1 once or twice a year they also give some opportunities for these shares it does not matter if the market is up or down as it gives the opportunity when it wants and hence we need to wait.

BEST STRATEGIES
Target rate of return per annum
Buy stocks heavily only in Bull Run
Only buy up trending stocks
Build position if the uptrend is confirmed
Invest at least 4% of Capital in any stock
Invest no more than 12% of capital in any stock (buy in three steps-(1) Break out (2) existing trends (3) confirmed trends)
Hold only two stocks in same industry
Maximum risk per stock of 0.5 per cent of capital
Sell quickly if the uptrend fails
Set stop loss
Do not borrow money to invest in stocks
Do not invest in fund, warrants and etc
Only buy shares paying dividends
Do not buy on tips
Treat your investment as your own business venture

Hanoifortune wrote:BEST STRATEGIES
Target rate of return per annum
Buy stocks heavily only in Bull Run
Only buy up trending stocks
Build position if the uptrend is confirmed
Invest at least 4% of Capital in any stock
Invest no more than 12% of capital in any stock (buy in three steps-(1) Break out (2) existing trends (3) confirmed trends)
Hold only two stocks in same industry
Maximum risk per stock of 0.5 per cent of capital
Sell quickly if the uptrend fails
Set stop loss
Do not borrow money to invest in stocks
Do not invest in fund, warrants and etc
Only buy shares paying dividends
Do not buy on tips
Treat your investment as your own business venture

You have given good advice - thank you

Also I read somewhere that just by checking the cash balances of those funds you can get an idea of the market. It they have huge cash balances it is a good time to buy. If they don't have cash in their hand that means they are loaded with shares and waiting to sell. I think this makes sense. Doesn't it?

Clearly there is a difference in trading and investing you will get an idea from the above. Both are correct depending on what type of person you are and what works for you.

Hi Experts, I dont want to know about shares but about when to sell.

There were two bull runs, one in 2012 and the other during May 2013. Both times I didnt sell my shares which were in profit but expected the market to move higher and both times the profits disappeared when the market fell and I am still left only with my invested capital. But I feel now the situation is different with the interest rates down, retail participation higher, foreign inflow still strong.

So is it safe now to look at the longer term or do you all feel the same scenario will repeat. I always lose when I try to do trading because the next day the share price moves higher.
The last few days I lost by selling PLC and KAPI too early with only a small profit although I initially bought these to hold for long but I am unsettled by this market and I have now got into the habit of selling too early.

We usually expect the market to pass its previous high and I feel it is quite possible and if the market passes its previous high, is it feasible to expect that the individual shares to also reach their previous highs. I want to hold my shares for the med/long term but I have no experience and since I watched my profits disappear twice, I am a bit concerned now. Pls share your opinions and I am very grateful.
Thank you

Stefan wrote:Hi Experts, I dont want to know about shares but about when to sell.

There were two bull runs, one in 2012 and the other during May 2013. Both times I didnt sell my shares which were in profit but expected the market to move higher and both times the profits disappeared when the market fell and I am still left only with my invested capital. But I feel now the situation is different with the interest rates down, retail participation higher, foreign inflow still strong.

So is it safe now to look at the longer term or do you all feel the same scenario will repeat. I always lose when I try to do trading because the next day the share price moves higher.
The last few days I lost by selling PLC and KAPI too early with only a small profit although I initially bought these to hold for long but I am unsettled by this market and I have now got into the habit of selling too early.

We usually expect the market to pass its previous high and I feel it is quite possible and if the market passes its previous high, is it feasible to expect that the individual shares to also reach their previous highs. I want to hold my shares for the med/long term but I have no experience and since I watched my profits disappear twice, I am a bit concerned now. Pls share your opinions and I am very grateful.
Thank you

As you mentioned premature selling also is a cost. On the previous two occasions bull run couldn't sustain for long. But this time the environment is very conducive for longer bull. So better to hold a bit and it all depends on your need.

Stefan wrote:Hi Experts, I dont want to know about shares but about when to sell.

There were two bull runs, one in 2012 and the other during May 2013. Both times I didnt sell my shares which were in profit but expected the market to move higher and both times the profits disappeared when the market fell and I am still left only with my invested capital. But I feel now the situation is different with the interest rates down, retail participation higher, foreign inflow still strong.

So is it safe now to look at the longer term or do you all feel the same scenario will repeat. I always lose when I try to do trading because the next day the share price moves higher.
The last few days I lost by selling PLC and KAPI too early with only a small profit although I initially bought these to hold for long but I am unsettled by this market and I have now got into the habit of selling too early.

We usually expect the market to pass its previous high and I feel it is quite possible and if the market passes its previous high, is it feasible to expect that the individual shares to also reach their previous highs. I want to hold my shares for the med/long term but I have no experience and since I watched my profits disappear twice, I am a bit concerned now. Pls share your opinions and I am very grateful.
Thank you

when to sell? Sell when share price fall 20-30% from your purchase price or peak

Hanoifortune wrote:

Stefan wrote:Hi Experts, I dont want to know about shares but about when to sell.

There were two bull runs, one in 2012 and the other during May 2013. Both times I didnt sell my shares which were in profit but expected the market to move higher and both times the profits disappeared when the market fell and I am still left only with my invested capital. But I feel now the situation is different with the interest rates down, retail participation higher, foreign inflow still strong.

So is it safe now to look at the longer term or do you all feel the same scenario will repeat. I always lose when I try to do trading because the next day the share price moves higher.
The last few days I lost by selling PLC and KAPI too early with only a small profit although I initially bought these to hold for long but I am unsettled by this market and I have now got into the habit of selling too early.

We usually expect the market to pass its previous high and I feel it is quite possible and if the market passes its previous high, is it feasible to expect that the individual shares to also reach their previous highs. I want to hold my shares for the med/long term but I have no experience and since I watched my profits disappear twice, I am a bit concerned now. Pls share your opinions and I am very grateful.
Thank you

when to sell? Sell  when share price fall 20-30% from your purchase price or peak

It all depends on the situation. Just think you have a banking share with a 20% gain. And you know a dividend is just around the corner. So why don;t you wait for the dividend??

Hanoifortune wrote:BEST STRATEGIES
Target rate of return per annum
Buy stocks heavily only in Bull Run
Only buy up trending stocks
Build position if the uptrend is confirmed
Invest at least 4% of Capital in any stock
Invest no more than 12% of capital in any stock (buy in three steps-(1) Break out (2) existing trends (3) confirmed trends)
Hold only two stocks in same industry
Maximum risk per stock of 0.5 per cent of capital
Sell quickly if the uptrend fails
Set stop loss
Do not borrow money to invest in stocks
Do not invest in fund, warrants and etc
Only buy shares paying dividends
Do not buy on tips
Treat your investment as your own business venture

Build position if the uptrend is confirmed
How can we confirmed?   

nihal123 wrote:

Hanoifortune wrote:BEST STRATEGIES
Target rate of return per annum
Buy stocks heavily only in Bull Run
Only buy up trending stocks
Build position if the uptrend is confirmed
Invest at least 4% of Capital in any stock
Invest no more than 12% of capital in any stock (buy in three steps-(1) Break out (2) existing trends (3) confirmed trends)
Hold only two stocks in same industry
Maximum risk per stock of 0.5 per cent of capital
Sell quickly if the uptrend fails
Set stop loss
Do not borrow money to invest in stocks
Do not invest in fund, warrants and etc
Only buy shares paying dividends
Do not buy on tips
Treat your investment as your own business venture

Build position if the uptrend is confirmed
How can we confirmed?   

Nihal, many signs of technical charts help you on this. Some widely used ones are given below;

Price action - lengthy white candles moving above short-term moving averages.
Increasing volumes.
Short-term moving average crossing long-term moving average from below.
Similar movement of MACD.
Relative strength between 30-70.

nihal123 wrote:

Hanoifortune wrote:BEST STRATEGIES
Target rate of return per annum
Buy stocks heavily only in Bull Run
Only buy up trending stocks
Build position if the uptrend is confirmed
Invest at least 4% of Capital in any stock
Invest no more than 12% of capital in any stock (buy in three steps-(1) Break out (2) existing trends (3) confirmed trends)
Hold only two stocks in same industry
Maximum risk per stock of 0.5 per cent of capital
Sell quickly if the uptrend fails
Set stop loss
Do not borrow money to invest in stocks
Do not invest in fund, warrants and etc
Only buy shares paying dividends
Do not buy on tips
Treat your investment as your own business venture

Build position if the uptrend is confirmed
How can we confirmed?   

Bidding, price, volume, no of trades, no of trading days, company financial report

Hanoifortune wrote:

nihal123 wrote:

Hanoifortune wrote:BEST STRATEGIES
Target rate of return per annum
Buy stocks heavily only in Bull Run
Only buy up trending stocks
Build position if the uptrend is confirmed
Invest at least 4% of Capital in any stock
Invest no more than 12% of capital in any stock (buy in three steps-(1) Break out (2) existing trends (3) confirmed trends)
Hold only two stocks in same industry
Maximum risk per stock of 0.5 per cent of capital
Sell quickly if the uptrend fails
Set stop loss
Do not borrow money to invest in stocks
Do not invest in fund, warrants and etc
Only buy shares paying dividends
Do not buy on tips
Treat your investment as your own business venture

Build position if the uptrend is confirmed
How can we confirmed?   

Bidding, price, volume, no of trades, no of trading days, company financial report

Thanks

K.Haputantri wrote:

nihal123 wrote:

Hanoifortune wrote:BEST STRATEGIES
Target rate of return per annum
Buy stocks heavily only in Bull Run
Only buy up trending stocks
Build position if the uptrend is confirmed
Invest at least 4% of Capital in any stock
Invest no more than 12% of capital in any stock (buy in three steps-(1) Break out (2) existing trends (3) confirmed trends)
Hold only two stocks in same industry
Maximum risk per stock of 0.5 per cent of capital
Sell quickly if the uptrend fails
Set stop loss
Do not borrow money to invest in stocks
Do not invest in fund, warrants and etc
Only buy shares paying dividends
Do not buy on tips
Treat your investment as your own business venture

Build position if the uptrend is confirmed
How can we confirmed?   

Nihal, many signs of technical charts help you on this. Some widely used ones are given below;

Price action - lengthy white candles moving above short-term moving averages.
Increasing volumes.
Short-term moving average crossing long-term moving average from below.
Similar movement of MACD.
Relative strength between 30-70.

Thanks